Hard to predict

[Rog]

The 2017 Giants show how hard baseball is to predict.

The outfield problems?  Highly predictable.  The rest of the issues?  Not so much.  

Probably injuries, but we also forget that other teams often have a lot of injuries too.  Like the Giants, the Dodgers have suffered a ton of injuries the past two seasons.   They've simply been able to overcome them better.  The injury that was so hard to predict was Madison Bumgarner's.  

It certainly isn't at all right to blame all the Giants' problems on Madison.  Even with him they would almost certainly be struggling on the season.  And I'm sure he is as frustrated by his stupidity as we are.  But losing him has truly hurt.

With the exception of Madison's injury, Johnny Cueto and Matt Moore have been the biggest rotation disappointments.  Hopefully Johnny will be able to overcome his blisters and Matt will find a way to keep lefty hitters from batting .404/.469/.825 (!)/1.293 against him.  I don't ever remember a southpaw of Matt's stature pitching nearly that poorly against lefties.  Entering this season, Matt had been just about equally effective against righties and lefties.  In a cruel coincidence, his career SLG against lefty hitters is .404, the same figure as their BA against him this season.

We complained about Bumgarner's pitching prior to his injury, but it wasn't really bad at all.  His 3.00 ERA and 1.07 WHIP look pretty good now that the Giants have no starter with an ERA below 4.00 and now that both Moore and Matt Cain have unseemly WHIP's over 1.50.

Amazingly, there are a dozen qualifying starters with a worse WHIP than Moore.  And if Cain qualified (he's 1.1 innings short), there would be 10 starters with worse WHIP's than he.  Also amazing  -- and this will almost certainly change temporarily after today's game -- Matt hasn't pitched enough innings to be a qualifier (one inning per game played by his team).

The Giants' rotation has posted some weird stats this season.  The very high WHIP's are one.  Ty Blach's 14 strikeouts in 41.2 innings is another.  Jeff Samardzija's 79 strikeouts to just 10 walks is another, as is his strikeouts minus walks exceed by one his innings pitched.  I guess the good news is that Jeff, Johnny and Moore are all nice bounce back candidates.  Cain has already started to regress, and Blach looks like he will be next.

Tyler Beede has been decent but far from exceptional for Sacramento this season.  His 3.31 ERA isn't bad, but his 1.33 WHIP isn't very good.  His 32 strikeouts and 18 walks in 49 innings are less than impressive.  It should be noted that the Pacific Coast League is a hitters' league, but less than six strikeouts per nine innings at the AAA level is depressing.  Tyler is becoming a bit more of a ground ball pitcher, and his GB/FB ratio is 1.89 this season compared to 1.52 over his minor league career.

Joan Gregorio certainly hasn't been pitching like a girl, as his 3.02 ERA will attest.  But his 38/30 K/BB ratio is horrible.  On the plus side, he has allowed only 39 hits in 50.2 innings.  With a 0.77 GB/FB ratio, Gregorio is a fly ball pitcher.  Low-strikeout/high fly ball pitchers usually don't fare well.  The River Cats' next four starters have WHIP's of 1.58, 1.70, 1.62 and 2.18.  Those are more like a whop (as in hit hard) than a WHIP.

On the hitting side, the River Cats' best hitters have been Christian Arroyo at his phenomenal .447/1.121 and Drew Stubbs at .294/.894.  Neither player has hit quite that well at the major league level.  Austin Slater his hitting .308/.795, and Jae-Gyun Hwang is hitting .291/.769 with 13 doubles.  Surprisingly, Hwang has walked only five times in 165 at bats.  He leads the River Cats with 27 RBI's.

In other words, the Giants' salvation to this season doesn't appear to be resting in the minors.  Beede would seem the most likely.  Hwang might provide depth to help out if players are traded away.

For AA Richmond, third baseman Miguel Gomez is hitting .333, but with only three home runs.  First baseman/outfielder Chris Shaw is hitting .301/.901 in a pitchers' league and has 18 walks to go with his 26 strikeouts.  Outfielder Slade Heathcoat is hitting .286/.798.  

Reliever Carlos Alvarado has a 1.42 ERA and 33 strikeouts and 10 walks in 19.0 innings.  Last season Alvarado struck out 37 with just one walk in 33.1 innings.  He's 27, but hopefully a late bloomer.  

D.C. Snelten stands at 1.66 with 28 strikeouts and just 5 walks in 21.2 frames.  Also standing at 6-foot-7 , the 245 pound southpaw will turn turn 25 on Memorial Day.  Last season he posted a 4.11 ERA for San Jose.

Shaw is probably the best for Richmond, and with Brandon Belt at first base, could be decent trade bait.

[klaiggeb]

Agree; There is no hero on a white horse at Sacramento who can/will come riding over the hill to save these clowns.

And I call them clowns because of their incredible ability to UNDER PERFORM.

All of them not named Blach have under performed, some more than others.

Pence, Posey (softest .350 hitter I've seen in a while. So much for his brief "driving the ball" spurt), Panik, Moore, Cueto, Law, Kontos, Crawford... it's a long, long ist.

boly

[Rog]

What is shocking is that the Giants are being outscored by nearly a run and a half per game. From what I can tell in a quick check, the only season they have been outscored by even a run per game was 1943, when they were outscored by 155 runs while finishing 55-98.

[Rog]

Entering play tonight, Buster was averaging 1.56 bases per hit. Over his career, he has averaged 1.55 bases per hit.

[Rog]

Entering play tonight, Brandon Belt was easily the Giants' leader with 1.90 bases per hit. We think of Hunter Pence as a power hitter, but so far this season he has averaged only 1.39 bases per hit. Brandon Crawford has done a nice job at 1.63 bases per hit.

A good hitting team might have Buster hitting third, Belt fifth or sixth and Crawford sixth or seventh. The rest of the Giants' hitters would be seventh or eighth place hitters. Denard Span has hit with surprising power, but a lead off hitter should have an OBP much higher than .299.

In addition to the many injuries, most of the Giants are having down seasons. Even before tonight they were hitting just .229. The rotation has averaged a 4.55 ERA. The bullpen hasn't been much better at 4.01, although the top relievers have pitched well. It is the long guys and specialists who have been poor.

Hunter Strickland has an eye-popping 1.06 ERA. Mark Melancon sits at 2.63, and Derek Law is at 2.91. Corey Gearrin is at 1.96, although he should be pitching for Las Vegas or Reno, where he could take advantage of his incredible luck after the games. Gearrin's WHIP is floating in the clouds at 1.69.

[klaiggeb]

Buster still has only 11 RBIS... of which on 4 have been someone not named Buster.

I'm tired of hearing about the chances he hasn't had... I just keep seeing the failures in the situations he HAS had.

boly

[Rog]

Buster's season has been weird. He's hit better than any season since 2012, but as Boly points out, he hasn't driven anybody in.

Buster has a spectacular 1.165 OPS with the bases empty, but only .676 with RISP and .665 with runners on. Over his full career, Buster has hit best with runners on (.897), with RISP (.888) and worst with nobody aboard (.812). So this season is a REAL reversal.

OPS with runners on and RISP DOES matter!

[Islandboagie]

The opposing team has obviously decided to not let Posey beat them. First off, the hitters ahead of him haven't been very good at getting on base, but even when they do, Posey doesn't get much to hit because he has very little protection behind him.

[Rog]

The opposing team has obviously decided to not let Posey beat them. First off, the hitters ahead of him haven't been very good at getting on base, but even when they do, Posey doesn't get much to hit because he has very little protection behind him.


Rog -- Let's take a look at how true your statement is, Boagie. I suspect it is partly true, but perhaps not to the degree you're thinking.

A team isn't likely to walk Buster with the bases loaded or runners on first and second or first and third. But let's take a look at how he's fared with runners on second, or a single runner on second or third, the situations in which he is most likely to be pitched to carefully.

-23 Buster has come to the plate twice with runners on second and third. He walked both times, once intentionally. Great call!

-2- Buster has come to the plate 13 times with a single runner on second. He has walked three times. In 10 at bats, he has a double and a single with one RBI. He has been pitched around a bit, but he hasn't hit well in this situation, and on his single, he was bitten by the base running gremlin, as the base runner was unable to score from second.

--3 Buster has come to the plate seven times with a single runner on third. He was walked intentionally once and hit by a pitch once. In his five at bats, he has one hit and two RBI's.

So how about the situations in which he is less likely to be pitched to carefully -- bases loaded, first and second, or first and third?

12- With runners on first and second, Buster is two for nine with four walks. One would think he's being pitched to less carefully here, but he has actually walked MORE and still not hit very well. It is worth nothing that no runners scored on his two singles, so the base running gods weren't good to him.

123 Buster has come to the plate only once with the bases loaded, and he was unsuccessful.

1-3 Buster has come to the plate twice with runners on first and third, and he singled and struck out.

OK, so how about with a runner on third and fewer than two outs? Buster has come up eight times, walking three of them and getting hit once. When credited with an at bat, he singled once in four tries and driving in his only run. No sacrifice flies.


If we look at the entire picture, I think it is safe to say Buster has been pitched to carefully as Boagie said. He has hit poorly and has been bitten by the base running gremlins. Buster hasn't had many chances, and he hasn't fared well when given one. When he has gotten a hit, his base runners had a hard time scoring from second. He doesn't have any sacrifice flies, although he waa given only four real chances to get one.

Buster hasn't been great, but he's been somewhat better than four non-homer RBI's would indicate. At least that's my analysis of the facts.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3884/hard-predict#ixzz4iUeaaqdy

[klaiggeb]

Buster's season has been weird. He's hit better than any season since 2012, but as Boly points out, he hasn't driven anybody in.

***boly says***

All I have to do is watch Buster Pansy taking at bats, Roger.

They've been, for the most part, other than that short hot streak, weak.

Off balance, piddly little ground balls and half assed fly balls.

I can't decide who's under achieved more: Panik, Posey, or Belt.

IMHO, it's been Panik-1, Pansy-2, Belt 3.

At least Brando is making loud contact and driving in runs.

Buster's crap is ridiculous.

Again, today, 4 pitches... fat... and he missed all 4.

boly

[Rog]

I think Joe has under performed by far the most of anyone here. Buster's season has been multifaceted. It all depends on what one looks at with him. On balance, I'd say he's under performed slightly. Crawford had been right around expectations. Belt has under performed by a touch.

I think we can break the players into two groups. Panik has under performed by a lot (or we are overestimating him), while the other three are pretty close to expectations. All the other starters have under performed to varying degrees, with Nunez perhaps under performing the least and Pence the most.

On balance, let me state the obvious. They simply haven't hit.