Cain's command

[klaiggeb]

After his first start of the season, Matty came out showing great command.

However, his last 2 starts were a regression from the previous few; command issues.

Wasn't missing by all that much... but he was still missing.

His BB totals are up, and tonight against a hot Dodger team, can't be struggling with command.

1-Can't fall behind hitters like he did in his last 2 starts.

2-Cant' struggle with location within the strike zone.


We need the old "horse" to step forward again; not blowing them away, but being that stalwart pitcher he always used to be.

boly

[Rog]

Matt isn't the pitcher he used to be. His hope is to become a true pitcher, which is the point you were making.

[klaiggeb]

It is indeed, the point I was trying to make, Rog.

I watched some video, since the game is blacked out here, and from what I saw, he really "pitched."

Great Maddux-like fastballs to LHB, getting strike outs on inside fastballs that started off the plate, inside, but came back nicely.


boly

[Islandboagie]

Rog, if you're suggesting Matt Cain was just a thrower, then I have to disagree. Sure he was more effective with a higher velocity fastball, but when your best secondary pitch is a changeup it's important to have a good fastball. But Matt always located well, and he changed the sight line up and down, pitched in and out, hard and soft. He's always pitched with his head, not just his arm.

Now, this season he has expanded his arsenal going to the two seam fastball more often, also working in more curve balls than he has in the past. This is the reason for his success in my opinion.

[Rog]

I didn't mean to suggest that Matt was just a thrower. He had a good but never great fastball which never averaged more than 93 mph in a season. He did have a "rising" fastball that he could place just above the batter's swing path. When Matt came up in August of 2005, he already had a fastball, cutter, curve, slider and change up.

As Boagie observantly, according to Fan Graphs, Matt is throwing about one in five fastballs and one in five curve balls this season, both the highest rates of his career. His four seamer usage is less than any season except 2014, he has used fewer sliders than any season since 2010, and he is throwing the fewest change up of his career. Matt's curve has been by far his best pitch, and his two-seamer has also been positive.

Matt is mixing up his pitches, which is mixing up the batters.

Something to watch. Matt's contact percentage allowed is the highest of his career. If he loses command and/or deception, he could be more vulnerable than the average pitcher. Matt's swinging strike percentage is by far the lowest of his career, his strikeout rate is lower than any full season aside from 2015, and his walk rate is easily his highest since 2006. He has been greatly aided by bringing his home run rate on fly balls back to his career average.

Matt is pitching in a very fragile place. His margin for error is slim. Hopefully he can continue to walk the tight rope. He's been excellent at doing so of late.

[klaiggeb]

Matt is like many aging veterans... he relies upon location.

But history is FULL of good pitchers who had to rely on location, so that 'high contact' rate isn't a problem for me at all.

At this stage of his career he 'pitches' to contact.

If one can locate, not a bad thing.

boly

[Rog]

Pitchers are almost always less successful pitching to contact. The question is whether they can still pitch well ENOUGH. Some are able to do so and go on to long careers. Greg Maddux is one of the best known for his pitching evolution. It enabled him to have five different career periods:

Rookie -- Barely figuring it out at 5.61.

Very good -- 3.18, 2.95, 3.46, 3.35

One of the best ever -- 2.18, 2.36, 1.56, 1.63, 2.72, 2.20, 2.22

Reinventing himself -- 3.57, 3.00, 3.05, 2.62

Hanging on (at a nice level) -- 3.96, 4.02, 4.24, 4.20, 4.14, 4.22. I hadn't noticed it before, but look at the amazing consistency of Maddux's final six seasons. All pitched within a reasonable distance of the league average.

Five clear career periods, and surprising consistency within each.

[klaiggeb]

I can't, and won't argue with your numbers.

But here's the thing; Matty is NO LONGER a # 1, or #2 guy.

He's a # 4 at best... and that's fine with me.

I figure he'll end the year with an ERA in the high 3.00s, and that's good enough when Bum gets back.

boly

[Rog]

I will be surprised if Matt's ERA winds up in the three's.

[klaiggeb]

I won't be.

Depends upon how he continues to grow with his "new" pitching style.

boly

[Rog]

Yesterday I came across a stat designed to help predict a pitcher's future ERA. Amazingly, the guy whose ERA was predicted to be helped the most is Jeff Samardzija. I haven't been a Samardzija fan, but that may be changing.

The stat is really a simple. Subtract walks from strikeouts, then divide by innings pitched. Jeff's 1.00 ratio is the fourth best in the majors. Historically, that's a really good figure.

Jeff ranks #4 in (K-BB)/IP. He ranks #80 in ERA. That's a difference of 76, which is tied with Trevor Bauer for the most in the majors.

Matt Moore is a +29, which is a good sign going forward. So is Johnny Cueto's +20. Matt's -32 isn't nearly as encouraging.

This is just one of many stats designed to help forecast future performance. Overall, it looks very good for the Giants. In Matt's case, it doesn't.

Ty Blach didn't appear on the list, so I looked up his strikeouts and walks. I've never seen anything like it, and I don't know what to make of it. Ty has struck out exactly one more batter than he's walked. I don't know what it means, but it can't be good.

Ty is somehow holding opposing batters to a .235 Batting Average on Balls In Play. Think Ty is better than Madison Bumgarner? Madison's career mark is .286. Something is amiss here. Ty never held MINOR league hitters to a .235 BABIP. His numbers there were .305, .295, .311 and .280.

I wish I hadn't looked Ty up. Something's got to give there, and hopefully it isn't his ERA. It certainly didn't look like it last night.

[klaiggeb]

I wish you wouldn't worry about it, Rog.

Consider Tom Glavine.

Did NOT throw hard...but man! Was he hard to hit.

It's all about movement and location.

Locate, and you do well.

Fail to locate... and you don't.


Ty locates and locates well.

That plus his natural movement make him tough.

Bumgarner is another.

Yeah, he can hit 93... but that's NOT a flame thrower.

He has great natural movement, and a killer cutter and slider.

boly

[Rog]

Matt Cain isn't Tom Glavine -- but he is improving. If given a 4.00 over/under for his ERA this season, sadly I would easily take the over. It would of course be nice to be wrong on this one.

[klaiggeb]

I never said he was, Rog.

You said that contact pitchers didn't do well, and I disagree.

You brought up Maddux who 're invented' himself.

I was going to bring him up, too.

It can, and has been done; winning without that dominant fastball.

We'll see.

In the meantime until it all unfolds it's not worth arguing about.

boly

[Rog]

You said that contact pitchers didn't do well, and I disagree.


Rog -- As is the case with Brandon Belt, in specifics you are right. As a general rule, I'm right. It simply comes down to how closely or how broadly we focus.

I think you remember this, but there is a reverse correlation between both strikeouts and ground balls compared with earned run average. The greater negative correlation is between strikeouts and ERA. In contrast, the fewer strikeouts and ground balls a pitcher gives up, the higher his ERA.

As you well know, most successful pitch-to-contract pitchers throw a lot of ground balls. This season Matt has thrown one ground ball for every fly ball. In that regard, he his ahead of his career average (0.88). Glavine threw 1.37 ground balls per fly ball. Tom was a ground ball pitcher, but not a pronounced one. Matt has been a fly ball pitcher throughout his career, although he had reduced that tendency this season and last.

You predict better times for Matt ahead, and I predict worse. We both hope you are right.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3863/cains-command#ixzz4hSvANGcW

[klaiggeb]

Worse than what he was before this year, Rog?

Last 2 seasons he looked like a human-Titanic!

ERAs that were embarrassing...

I'll be surprised if his ERA is in the 4.00's... but even if it is in the low 4.00's for the guy who started out Fighting to make the club; fighting to win a job; fighting for the # 5 spot...I'll take it.

boly

[Rog]

Oh, no. Not worse than the past two seasons. I could see his ERA the rest of the way out being around halfway between its present level and that of 2015/2016 though. Here's another negative factor I just came across. Matt's 1.46 WHIP isn't that much lower than his 1.50 and 1.51 the past two seasons. In 2013 and 2014 he was already in decline, but his WHIP was 1.16 and 1.25 in those two seasons.

Matt has allowed home runs on only 8% of his fly balls this season. He hasn't been below double digits since 2012. Matt will almost certainly give up homers at a higher rate the rest of the season. His strand percentage is right at his career mark though, which should help stabilize his ERA. Batters are swinging at far fewer pitches outside the zone though, which does make him vulnerable unless he turns that around.

Matt's ERA is only 4.04, but the three main fielding independent ratings have him at 4.17, 5.02 and 5.05. The fielding independent ratings are usually better predictors of future ERA than present current ERA is.

On the other hand, Matt has yielded just six earned runs total in six of his eight starts. He's been quite good in three-quarters of his starts.

On balance, Matt's leading indicators are somewhat negative.