Barry Manilow... and Rog

[klaiggeb]

As Barry once sang, Rog... this one's for you.

Twice today we saw perfect evidence on exactly why I don't like Belt in RBI situations.

Twice we saw him chase bad pitches early in the count, the second time, on a 2-0 pitch, he chases a breaking ball inside.

Both times he strikes out on bad pitches.

Both times he looked absolutely like he had no idea what he was doing.


And I don't want to hear... well he just had a bad day.

Horse crap.

We see these kinds of days from him all too often.

boly

[Rog]

I won't tell you he had a bad day. I will tell you however that he had a HORRIBLE day. To your credit, you said only that these were examples of why you don't like Brandon up in RBI situations, not that they proved he was a poor RBI hitter.

Now don't get me wrong. I have long said that Brandon isn't a great RBI guy. I have also shown evidence that he hit well last season with men on base and men in scoring position.

Still, he entered tonight's game as the Giants' RBI leader. He had one more than Hunter Pence, even though Brandon missed one when his single was misjudged by Denard Span, preventing Denard from scoring and giving Brandon an RBI. Instead, Hunter picked up the RBI.

Now, the Giants aren't a great RBI team. For starters, they don't have a true cleanup hitter. Belt isn't a great RBI man, but he's decent.

And here is the problem as I see it. We focus in on specifics such as not hitting enough homers and being only decent at driving in runs while seemingly ignoring how few outs Brandon makes and how many he makes as a fielder. We're misjudging Belt primarily because our focus is too narrow.

Let's look at what you said. You complained about one day. Even though Belt leads the Giants in RBI's by one (and if not for a misread by Denard Span would lead by three). That's even though he entered tonight's game with five fewer at bats with RISP than Hunter. Oh, Brandon also had eight fewer at bats with runners on base than Hunter.

So why are we picking on Brandon so much? Instead of looking for facts, we're looking for isolated examples that support our opinion. Those who are too narrow in their focus can greatly underrate Belt -- just as those who are too narrow in their focus in the other direction can overrate him. Those who take a broader and more even-handed approach tend to think he's one of the top 10 at his position.

Barry Manilow was good enough to say "This one's for you." Had he been a baseball fan, I would hope he taken a far broader look than one.

I'm not going to say "This one's for you." What I am going to say is that ALL the facts I have presented -- and there have been many -- are for you.

Being out of sync with the consensus doesn't absolutely mean a person is wrong. But he should ask himself very carefully, what am I missing that the consensus sees? The consensus sees Belt as a top 10 first baseman because they look at how well rounded he is, very good on both sides of the ball.

They don't limit their focus just to home runs and RBI's. If they're wise, they might even look at how many balls he hit that DIDN'T go out of AT&T last season that would have gone out of the Angels' statement (as arguably the most knowledgeable fan Grant Brisbee did). Brandon would have hit over 25 homers, and he might well have had 100 RBI's. He would have been almost a lock for 95.

Brandon isn't great. He won't make the Hall of Fame. But he's a very good player both offensively and especially defensively. And for a first baseman, he's an above-average base runner. Belt's OPS the past two seasons has been .834 and .868. This season it's at .840. That's good hitting.

RBI's aren't the best part of Brandon's hitting. But when one looks evenly at him with the bat, he's pretty doggone good. At WORST, he's the fifth-best first baseman in SF Giants history. He's not Willie McCovey, Orlando Cepeda or even Will Clark, but many would argue they are the only ones ahead of him. Being behind two Hall of Famers and a near Hall of Famer isn't too bad.

If the Giants' top dozen players were as good as Brandon is, they would be a better team than they are now.

[Rog]

Boly mentioned Barry Manilow's singing "This one's for you." And Boly even made it two times for me/us -- both times, Brandon Belt strikeouts on bad pitches with runners in scoring position.

Barry also sang "Looks like we made it," and while I wouldn't completely say Belt has "made it" when it comes to RBI's, the broader facts (remember them?) say Brandon is beginning to come close.

Instead of just two Brandon at bats with RISP this season, why don't we look at all of them? Better yet, let's look at Brandon Crawford's and Hunter Pence's too.

Both Pence and Crawford have 23 at bats this season with runners in scoring position. Crawford has driven home five runners in RISP situations, and Hunter has driven home eight.

Batting second, Belt has six fewer at bats with RISP -- yet he's driven in one more runner in such situations than Hunter and four more than Brandon.

So "This one's for you" looked at only two Belt at bats and found him wanting. "Looks like we (almost) made it" looks at all the at bats of Belt, Pence and Crawford with runners in scoring position and finds that Brandon drove in one and four, respectively, more than Pence and Crawford despite having six fewer at bats.

This is why I say we're criticizing Belt unfairly. For starters, we're much too narrow (RBI's) in our focus, when we should be looking at the entire player. But secondly, our focus is even more narrow in that we're talking about only two at bats. Looks to me like we may not be making it when it comes to judging Belt fairly.

Brandon may not be (and isn't) the best RBI guy in the world, but it appears so far this season he's been the best on the Giants. As we are seeing, there just aren't a ton of RBI opportunities these days.

And aside from lousy hitting and horrible pitching, the Giants are a pretty good team. One that will, thankfully, almost certainly improve from here. How much worse can it get?

[klaiggeb]

I, too, think they'll improve, Rog... but here's the one stat that jumps off the page:

Since the all star break last year, we have the WORST record in MLB, and we're something like 38-60 since thing.

THAT is not a coincidence.

Something is wrong, and I have no clue what it is because we've had 8 good to very good starts in the last 9 games.

And last night, a game I actually GOT to see, Jeffy was freaking awesome!

boly

[Rog]

Yeah, the Giants have been awful since the All-Star break. Certainly some of it has been injuries, but they simply haven't played very well either.

Mark is going to attend the next two games, and he's promised to turn things around!