Smith injures elbow

[Rog]

Giants reliever Will Smith left today's game with an elbow injury.  Smith called the move "precautionary," but Bruce Bochy said the injury will "take some time." 

A month ago the Giants were said to be looking for another reliever.  I wonder if they will now renew their search, narrowing it to a southpaw.

This is bad news.  For the Giants last season, Will struck out 12.8 batter per nine innings.  Those guys don't grow on trees, at least not in the baseball jungle.  Just today I saw that Tim Lincecum ranks #10 among all pitchers who have thrown 1000 or more innings with 9.29 K's per nine.  That's just one tick ahead of Sandy Koufax.

Randy Johnson is the all-time leader with 10.61 strikeouts per nine.

[donk33]

of course Sandy pitched 9 innings many times and Tim only a few times....

[Islandboagie]

Rog- Giants reliever Will Smith left today's game with an elbow injury. Smith called the move "precautionary," but Bruce Bochy said the injury will "take some time."

Boagie- I reckon he's done for the season. If I'm the Giants I ask Lopez if he wants one more go around.

[Rog]

of course Sandy pitched 9 innings many times and Tim only a few times....


Rog -- Of course. Since there are many more strikeouts now than in Sandy's day, I think he is probably the most dominant pitcher at least of my lifetime. Because others had much longer periods of success, I consider many above him, although I haven't studied it closely, I think he was the most dominant. Even when he wasn't great he could strike batters out. His early career was marred by poor control and by pitching in strong hitters' parks.

I feel confident with Sandy as the most dominant pitcher of my lifetime, but I haven't looked at the real old-timers. I know that Christy Mathewson of the Giants was extremely dominant in his era, and I suspect the Big Train (Walter Johnson) was, as well.

On the other hand, for full CAREERS, it is hard to put Sandy up there with the aforementioned duo and a few other early pitchers all the way up to Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez of this millenium. A guy like Maddux certainly weasn't as DOMINANT as Sandy, but it's hard to argue that his long CAREER wasn't better than Sandy's.

Clayton Kershaw stands out among today's pitchers in a way not seen since Koufax's prime. Clayton isn't a great hitter (although not bad for a pitcher, either), and just yesterday I came across an article that showed that as of July 14th (IIRC) in the 2014 season, Clayton's own batting average and on-base percentage were higher than those which he had allowed. That's not unprecedented, but it's certainly rare among average-hitting pitchers.

Max Scherzer is highly dominant in his own right, and one could make an argument that he is today's second-best starter. One can also make a nice case for the Giants' own Madison Bumgarner, whose career ERA is now a tick under 3.00 and who thus far in his career has been one of the best pitchers in postseason history.

Based on his pitching over the past six years, one can make an argument for Johnny Cueto as being not far behind. I believe he still may have the second-best ERA of any starter this decade. And while Jeff Samardzija is struggling and the fifth starter position hasn't yet been grasped by the throat, some think Matt Moore will be one of this season's pitching surprises.

Lincecum and Matt Cain are so far past their prime that I'm not sure it's even visible in their rear-view mirrors, but late last decade and early on in this one, they too were special.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3776/smith-injures-elbow#ixzz4byvHt3GU

[Rog]

If Smith is done for the season, Lopez might indeed be a consideration, although I think it would take him a fair amount of time to get back in pitching shape.

The thing that most hurts about losing Smith (hopefully not for the whole season, although it does sound like Tommy John or the other, newer, less invasive elbow surgery now available) is that he isn't the Giants' Lopez LOOGY. Smith is more like Jeremy Affeldt was, in that he can get both lefties and righties out. The only real concern about Will last season aside from his health was a 10% drop in his ground ball rate. That obviously can lead to more home runs and fewer double plays.

But aside from losing Mark Melancon, I think the loss of Will hurts the bullpen more than losing any other reliever. It does open up an opportunity for Steven Okert.

Last season Okert showed nice ground ball and line drive rates, along with a good strikeout to walk ratio. He wasn't outstanding, but he was good. He pitched better to lefty hitters, but he wasn't a total loss against righties.

This provides an opportunity for Josh Osich as well, but the hard thrower was disappointing last season and has had a horrible spring. Matt Reynolds has major league experience, but he too has had a tough preseason.

I would think the Giants are likely scouring the waiver wire and trade opportunities for both a lefty reliever and a right-handed hitting center fielder. And of course hoping Smith won't be out too long. They may have been able to afford to lose only Mark Melancon less.

[klaiggeb]

This injury is not a good sign.

I'm betting he's out for a minimum of a month.

Lopez? Hmmm. That's an interesting question, Rog... but I'd be inclined to say, 'no.'

I don't think he was that effective last year.

Might be worth taking a long look at Osich since HE was much more effective vs LHB last year than RHB

boly

[Islandboagie]

Rog- The thing that most hurts about losing Smith (hopefully not for the whole season, although it does sound like Tommy John or the other, newer, less invasive elbow surgery now available) is that he isn't the Giants' Lopez LOOGY. Smith is more like Jeremy Affeldt was, in that he can get both lefties and righties out.

Boagie- I'm not too concerned with losing his ability to get right handers out, we have guys that can do that. I'm concerned with those late inning situations where the bases are juiced, a power hitting lefty is up and the best we have to throw at him is Okert or Osich. We need a guy that makes it an uncomfortable at-bat for the hitter.

For many years Lopez was that guy, even last season he was still that guy, to a lesser extent. But he still was tough on lefties limiting them to a .626 OPS. It's the righties that hammered him.

With Melancon being the closer now, I think that gives the Giants the opportunity to use Lopez in just those types of situations.

[Rog]

If that lefty hitter comes up in the ninth, obviously Melancon will pitch to him. That more or less leaves the seventh and eighth innings. I'm pretty comfortable with either Okert or Law in the bases-loaded situation. Where the Giants saw Smith's value was in being able to stay in the game after pitching to a lefty hitter or two if the next hitter or two batted right-handed. Between Smith and Okert, the Giants had nice coverage against southpaws in the seventh and eighth innings, and then Melancon for the ninth.

Now unless Osich can step up or they can acquire another southpaw reliever (or possibly use Ty Blach), they're short a port-side arm.

[Rog]

I'm wondering if they don't add another lefty reliever if this will cause the Giants to lean toward 12 pitchers since if Smith is on the DL, it will allow them to save an extra pitcher, or if his loss will cause them to want to go to 13 to help fill the void.

[klaiggeb]

13 is outrageous from where I sit.

Period.

It gives a manager NO flexibility.

We're talking major league pitchers.

If a RHP can't get LHB out, why in the world is he in the show to begin with?

I like matchups.... but the game has gone to the extreme. Way too far for my tastes.

12 pitchers is 1 too many IMHO anyway.

But I understand the logic.

boly

[Rog]

If a RHP can't get LHB out, why in the world is he in the show to begin with?

I like matchups.... but the game has gone to the extreme. Way too far for my tastes.

12 pitchers is 1 too many IMHO anyway.

But I understand the logic.


Rog -- Pitching has improved tremendously by using pitchers in short bursts. That has led to shorter outings and the need for more pitchers. Personally, I'd like to see rosters expanded to 28, which teams used to be able to carry for the first few weeks of the season back when we were kids.

Even 26 or 27 would be a help.


Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3776/smith-injures-elbow#ixzz4cAqIy9S3

[klaiggeb]

I'm in for roster expansion, too.

But right now... like position players, pitchers NEED to learn to get more than one side out.

[Rog]

pitchers NEED to learn to get more than one side out.


Rog -- Specialists, particularly LOOGY's, have long been in favor for the sixth through eighth innings. Guys like Javier Lopez have shown that a pitcher who can get one or two key hitters out can be extremely valuable. Since lefty hitters have the biggest platoon split (think Denard Span), a guy like Lopez can carve out a long career by retiring same-hand hitters.

Yes, this leads to bigger pitching staffs, but think how valuable Lopez has been and how valuable Casilla and Romo COULD have been the past two seasons if the Giants had been able to use them as ROOGY's.

Let's suppose the Giants had been able to trade for Melancon and had used Lopez, Smith and Okert as LOOGY's and Casilla, Romo and Strickland as ROOGY's. Like some of the most successful teams, the Giants could have made it essentially a six-inning game.

Here are the OPS by lefty hitters against the three potential LOOGY's:

Lopez -- .626 with a .208 batting average

Smith -- .627 with a .229 batting average, plus .645 with a .197 batting average against right-handers

Okert -- .656

And the ROOGY's against righties:

Casilla -- .622 with a .215 batting average

Romo -- .674 with a 234 batting average.

Strickland -- .515 with a .194 batting average.

Sure, a manager works with his players to correct their weaknesses, but he should also put them in position to succeed.

Now, the Giants didn't HAVE Melancon. But they did have another alternative -- use Smith and Law (.598 with a .232 batting average against right-handers and .523 with .188 batting average) as co-closers.

Could the pair have handled it? Well, it would have been nice to find out, wouldn't it?

You are right that pitchers should be able to pitch to batters of both hands. But when their skills don't allow them to do so, they can still be valuable if managed correctly.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3776/smith-injures-elbow#ixzz4cG909NS6

[sfgdood]

If we were talking about 13 pitchers ALL YEAR, I could see Boly's point. But just starting the season, I have little problem with it. Bochy and Rags know how to work the staff. I trust them.

[klaiggeb]

But bochy's history is that he WANT 13 pitchers.

I vehemently disagree with that philosphy.

Yeah. Like my opinion means anything.

[Rog]

Bochy faces a roster dilemma in that he's got pressure both in the positions and the pitching staff to fit a lot of good players into his roster. It's tough to go with fewer than 13 pitchers to open the season, since after a quick day off after the opener a week from Sunday, the Giants play 13 straight days. (Great scheduling, right?)

On the other hand, they would like to squeeze 13 position player onto the roster. The likely result:

Hill makes the team for infield coverage, while Gillaspie is the sole lefty pinch hitter. Marrero makes it as the primary right-handed pinch hitter and backup left fielder. Hernandez is kept as the backup center fielder. Hwang goes down for a little while as the Giants try to sort the infield out.

And the Giants carry 13 pitchers, with Cain as the fifth starter and including Gearrin, Okert -- with Ty Blach as a long man, second lefty, and sixth starter ready to step in for Cain ... and Neil Ramirez. How do you keep Ramirez off the roster when he's struck out 15 of the 25 outs he's recorded? Struck out 15 of the 32 batters he's faced? With a 2.16 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP? If that doesn't win a spot on the roster, what does it take?

Remember, as a rookie in 2014 with the Cubs, Ramirez posted a 1.44 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP before experiencing arm difficulties the past two seasons. Looks like another great minor league free agent signing.

How did he look to us last night?

[Rog]

Oops! I've got 13 pitchers AND 13 position players on the roster. The new math and my abacus both say that's one too many. Ideas?

[klaiggeb]

I really hate it, sometimes, when I'm right.

When I read Bochy's initial comments, this is close to what I saw coming.

But even I under estimated it.

Swell.

What did I say in a different thread yesterday about THIS season starting just like last season?

We're a week or so from opening day, and now we're down 4 players.

boly

[sfgdood]

Bochy only prefers 13 pitchers in 3 specific temporary instances

1. Early in the season.
2. When the staff is being torn up.
3. After the roster increases in September.

I don't recall Bochy wanting 13 pitchers ALL the time as Boly is implying.

[Rog]

Bochy only prefers 13 pitchers in 3 specific temporary instances

1. Early in the season.
2. When the staff is being torn up.
3. After the roster increases in September.

I don't recall Bochy wanting 13 pitchers ALL the time as Boly is implying.


Rog -- I believe that during Bruce's tenure (or his recent tenure at the least), the Giants have had 13 pitchers move often than they've had a dozen. Last season they used 24 of them, and I believe that all except one or two pitched for them prior to September, when the Giants usually have 15 or more pitchers.

:ast season the Giants had seven pitchers who started 12 or more games, and they had eight relievers who pitched in 40 games or more. For the eight relievers to have pitched in 40 games or more, it seems likely the Giants had at least 13 pitchers most of the time.

In 2015, they had nine relievers who pitched in 33 or more games. In 2014 they had eight relievers who threw 39 games or more. Same thing in 2013 as in 2014. We have to go back to 2012, when there were six pitchers who threw 44 or more games, to find a season where it appears they might not have carried 13 pitchers the majority of the season.

Boly and I remember this because we DON'T like 13 pitchers on the staff. As Boly says, it is too limiting to the bench.

So, how do we get one player off my 26-man roster? The Giants will need to do so. Perhaps the way they'll do it is to send Ty Blach down to give him starts so he can be ready if needed. Tyler Beede could also be the guy to get the rotation call.

The Giants are apparently trying to decide if they should start or relieve with Kyle Crick. Chris Stratton has been sent down to Sacramento, but he will start today's game.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3776/smith-injures-elbow#ixzz4cK5tXMnX

[Rog]

I believe there is still a possibility the Giants will add another lefty reliever and/or a right-handed hitting center fielder.

As an aside, the Pirates wanted the Giants to include Derek Law in any deadline trade for Mark Melancon last season. Thoughts?

In retrospect, we might say, sure, lay down the Law if that is what it takes. Not sure if that would have been good or bad, but I don't see how they could have known enough about the future to do it.

As it turns out, they now have Melancon AND Law, although they certainly could have used Mark in October. I still feel that Bruce didn't handle the staff very well that he DID have. Of course, I too now have 20/20 hindsight.

But Smith and Law were the guys who were pitching well down the stretch. Let's take a look back at the race.


And DOWN the stretch they COME! It's Late Season Letdown in the lead, followed by Wild Card Winner, then October Disappointment. It's Late Season Letdown, then Wild Card Winner. Then it's NY Mets, then 108 Years. As they approach the wire, Late Season Letdown and Wild Card Team are neck and neck. But here comes October Disappointment with a rush. It's a three-way race, with October Disappointment taking the lead. Now they're joined by Ninth Inning Pen. But Ninth Inning Pen isn't closing.

So it's October Disappointment at the line. And the winner of the 113th running of the World Series Stakes is October Disappointment, with a heavy-handed ride by jockey Bruce Bochy.

The early favorite for the 114th running is Wait Till Next Year.

[Rog]

Speaking of roster sizes, I believe if a team has to play a make up double header, they get to carry an extra pitcher for the day. Pitch for a Day, hosted by Jack Bailey. Or perhaps it was Ed Bailey. Or maybe Ed McMahon. Or Don McMahon. Or Don Larsen.

Or was it just plain Larsen-y? That's the $64,000 Question.

[klaiggeb]

Rog -- I believe that during Bruce's tenure (or his recent tenure at the least), the Giants have had 13 pitchers move often than they've had a dozen

***boly says***

Thanks, Rog. I've seen the same thing.

I DON'T like my managerial hands tied by what is essentially a 3 man bench; I say 3, because with one of the 4 being a catcher, I don't DARE use the catcher to PH because of what could happen if my number 1 goes down.

Consider our top 3 starters.

Last year, Bum, Cueto and Jeffy the Stubborn ALL pitched more than 200 innings.

We've added Moore who could very EASILY top 200.

That means we have 4, 200+ ip pitchers.

Other than the occasional bad game, we won't need mid/early game relievers as often as we did these last few years.

I've simply had ENOUGH of managers playing the match up game all the time.

Let them PITCH!

Let them do their jobs! Get hitters out!

Is it any wonder why bullpens are out of gas and beaten up come September?

Not to me it isn't.

We can't just look at their games pitched. We MUST consider how many times they got up, got hot, READY to go in... but didn't.

That is JUST as wearing on an arm as actually going in to a game.

Now to be fair, Bochy IS the best at this; he understands that wear and tear on the arm and doesn't usually abuse them.

Unless he has to, like the last couple of years when we had a staff of mostly 5 inning pitchers.

boly

[Rog]

Don't know if they're using them, but there are biofeedback units available to teams and players to determine when they're tired. I don't know though if those units can measure the arm in particular.

[Rog]

As mentioned before, should Ty Blach become the Giants' fifth starter, he pitched something like 180 inning last season despite pitching mostly out of the bullpen last September. The Giants' rotation could easily exceed 1000 innings. Matt Cain will start the season as the #5 guy though, but should Ty take over soon, 1000 innings would still be possible -- perhaps even likely.

[Rog]

George Kontos pitched for his second straight day yesterday and struck out the side. Mark and I worried about his strikeout decline the past two seasons, but George has gone back to using his starter's repertoire of pitches and now is averaging a strike out and a half per inning this spring. Despite giving up two home runs, he's thrown the ball marvelously.

George says he gets stronger the more he pitches -- but not as he put it 3,4, or 5 days in a row. That kind of supports what we have long said here that a pitcher shouldn't pitch more than two days in a row barring emergency. Someday perhaps they'll do it that way.