How important are stolen bases?

[Rog]

How important are stolen bases, anyway?

The threat of a steal can help following batters see more fastballs.  It can take away some of a pitcher's concentration on the hitter.  Getting caught costs not only an out though, it also costs a base runner.

This doesn't answer the question, but I found it intriguing that the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mets, Cardinals and Orioles each stole fewer than 55 bases, yet they averaged just over 88 wins and a .545 winning percentage.  One counter-point:  Better teams may not NEED to steal as often.

Aggressiveness can be forceful.  Over-aggressiveness can be very damaging.  The Giants are somewhere in the middle.

[klaiggeb]

How important are they?

Ask Walt Alston about the SB for the Dodgers, 1962-1966.

We don't have enough base stealers which I have been ranting about for close to 10 years now.

Too many guys with "average" speed for my tastes.

boly

[Islandboagie]

Boly- We don't have enough base stealers which I have been ranting about for close to 10 years now.

Boagie- If only they had listened to you in the last 10 years maybe they would have won a World Championship, or 3.

You're right about the lack of base stealing, but it's a different game now. Catchers throw better, and pitchers hold runners better. Plus manufacturing runs is not really taught anymore because the lineups from top to bottom are more productive.

Fact is, the Giants actually switched from a base to base offense 10 years ago when Bochy took over, to a team that can run the bases rather well now. Not a ton of steals, but a team where base running is one of their strong suits. Better than most teams I'd say.

Besides Posey, I'd say everyone has average to plus speed compared to their peers at the same position.

Posey, despite not being very fast still was 6-1 in steals last season.

Belt is faster than most 1st basemen, how many 1st basemen leg out 8 triples in one season? However, he's not very good at stealing, but lanky guys have a hard time getting a good first step.

Panik can move pretty well. He stole 5 bases without being caught.

According to Flannery, Crawford is the best baserunner he's ever coached. Last season he had 9 triples and 7 steals without being thrown out.

Nunez is fast, especially for a third baseman. 40-10 in steals last season. 13-4 with the Giants.

Span can still move pretty well, perhaps not as well as most center fielders.

Pence is fast.

Parker is also fast, could potentially be a 20-20 guy.

Williamson is fast.

Gillaspie can move fairly well, especially for an corner infielder.

Tomlinson might be the fastest on the team.

Actually, now that I look at everything, the Giants are a very good base running team that COULD be a little more aggressive with stealing. But I do like their base running intelligence.

[sfgdood]

Base stealing can have an effect not only on the pitcher but also the defense. That said, you can't steal first base, no matter how quick you are. I'd rather have good hitters even if they aren't the swiftest guys on earth.

[klaiggeb]

boagie, you're points are well taken.

I've always said I wanted a team where most guys could run... at least a little.

We're close to that, the exception being Posey in the starting line up.

That said, however, I would like 2 or 3 guys that can consistently steal bases.

I can tell you that as a Pitcher, they drive you crazy!

It's what they CAN do that's the problem.

Takes at least some of your concentration off the hitter... the pitcher can get sloppy, and then WHACK.

Runs score.

We only have Nunez and Span who can provide that spark. And Nunez ISN'T a 1 hole guy.

boly

[Rog]

How important are they?

Ask Walt Alston about the SB for the Dodgers, 1962-1966.


Rog -- That's going to be tough. Walter has been dead over 32 years now. Which brings up the point that the game has changed.

If we're talking Maury Wills stealing 104 bases in 117 attempts, we're talking about a very large impact. If we're talking about his 35 out of 50 the previous season or the 40 out of 59 the following campaign, not so much.

The stolen base can be a strong weapon. But in order for it to be so, a runner has to be successful about 75% of the time, including pick offs.

I'm not sure how much Maury had his Mariners team steal the brief period he managed them in 1980 and 1981, but they went only 26-56 with him. That would be the equivalent of 51 wins over a 162-game season.

Obviously, how much a team should steal depends on the team. The better the base stealers, the more it should steal. The better and more powerful the hitters, the less it should steal. That's one of the reasons I like speed lower in the lineup, where manufacturing runs is more important. I haven't seen anyone else expressing that opinion though, so perhaps my theory is incorrect. Again, though, it depends on the success rate and how much it can rattle the pitcher and the defense.

I was surprised by how well the teams that stole fewer than 55 bases last season did though.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3772/important-stolen-bases#ixzz4bk77fSHI

[Rog]

According to Bill James' 2017 Annual, the Giants were an average base running team last season. Tomlinson was excellent, and Joe Panik was very good. Angel Pagan was the most valuable, although that was in part because he played much more than Tomlinson. Belt was a very good base stealer until last season, when he was thrown out his first four attempts and may have been given the no-steal sign the rest of the way.

Posey did have a very nice base stealing season in 2016, and is well above average as a base runner for a catcher. Nunez wasn't as effective as one would expect, since his base stealing didn't translate as well to the other parts of base running as one would expect. Span was slightly below-average. Brandon Crawford is a good base runner. Hunter Pence isn't as good as he once was.

Parker has stolen 20 bases four different times in the minors, although he stole only one base between Sacramento and the Giants last season. Williamson has a touch of speed and stole 12, 11, and 12 bases in college. He stole 10 bases for San Jose in 2013, but has stolen only a dozen bases since.

[Rog]

I'd rather have good hitters even if they aren't the swiftest guys on earth.


Rog -- Excellent point, Randy.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3772/important-stolen-bases?page=1#ixzz4bkC8iYlz

[klaiggeb]

From 1962 through 1966 the Dodgers terrorized PITCHERS with even the possibility that they would run, turning a walk, HBP or a single into a virtual double.

Roger, once again, you're only seeing numbers.

What numbers can't show is what that potential base stealer did to the pitcher; how it effected his pitch selection, concentration and location.

I spend from age 10-40 on the mound and I'm here to tell you it has a profound effect on the game.

boly

[Rog]

I think the top base stealers can have an effect on pitchers and the defense. The lesser guys not so much.

What I do think sometimes gets overlooked is how costly a base runner's getting picked off or thrown out can be.

Here's a way to look at steals -- not counting the pitcher and defense effect. Let's say a guy hits .300 in 500 at bats, including 95 singles, 20 homers, 5 triples and 30 doubles, for a .500 SLG. That's a pretty doggone good hitter. A little better than Hunter Pence.

Now let's suppose he steals 20 bases and gets caught or picked off 10 times. This is oversimplified, but let's convert 20 of those singles into doubles, since the base runner "converted" singles into doubles 20 times. Let's also turn 10 of those singles into outs, since the base runner lost 10 base runners from first base and caused 10 outs.

Now the adjusted hitter has 65 singles, 50 doubles, five triples and 20 homers. His batting average has declined to .280 and his slugging percentage has risen to .520. He's gone from being Josh Donaldson (.278/.503) to Kevin Mitchell (.284/.520). Donaldson has been the much more heralded, but like Josh, Mitchell also won an MVP.

I'm pretty sure I would take Donaldson as a hitter, but my point is that changing Josh Donaldson to Kevin Mitchell didn't really improve much.

Now, that is an oversimplification. But I think it helps put the cost/benefit ratio of extra steals into perspective. If a base stealer can steal 25 or more bases, he begins to affect the defense and especially the pitcher. That makes a difference. The effects can range from affecting a pitcher's concentration and pitch selection to the catcher costing a few strikes when he raises up to catch the ball in a throwing position, blocking the umpire.

But if he's thrown out 15 or so times, that costs his team half a game of outs, which is rather costly in itself.

IMO outs aren't always valued enough. Think how demoralizing a double play is for the offense and how stimulating it is for the pitcher and the defense. If a runner is thrown out, and the batter is retired, the same basic thing has happened -- two outs and a lost base runner.

A successful steal provides a base to the offense. An unsuccessful one costs both a base runner and an out. Clearly the cost of an out and the loss of a base runner is far greater than the gain of one base. The question, of course, is how much more. It is generally considered that a base stealer has to be successful at least three out of four tries in order to help his team.

Regarding the effect of a base stealer on the pitcher and the defense, Eduardo Nunez stole 40 bases last season. How big an impact would we say he had on the pitcher and the defense?

One thing not to forget also is the effect on the batter. Perhaps he'll take a pitch or two to give the runner a chance to steal. If the pitches are balls, it helps the batter by improving the count. If they are strikes, it hurts him. If the batter swings at the ball with the runner going, the visual effect of the runner's moving may be a distraction to the hitter and negatively affect his hitting. If the batter expects the runner to go, he may be more conscious of putting the ball into play, which would likely reduce his on-base percentage and slugging percentage, although it might increase his batting average.

I took a quick look at studies and analyses that have been done. Their conclusion was that having a base stealer on base had a slight positive effect. The Hardball Times concluded that rarely does a base stealer add as many as two runs a season with his distractions.

The effect may be less than we think. This is a really tough question, but the studies don't show a lot of difference. The difference they do show is slightly positive.

I would say even the most prolific base stealers should be successful at least 70% of the time if they are to make much difference. And most prolific base stealers do reach that mark.

A good base stealer likely adds some value. The average base stealer doesn't. The value of the good base stealer likely isn't high. In the best cases it appears we're talking about a slight advantage, not a big one. In the case of Maury Wills in 1962, the effect would be larger.

But not enough for Wills to have been selected the MVP over Willie Mays.

[Rog]

Roger, once again, you're only seeing numbers.


Rog -- I'm trying to see the whole picture. That's why I took a quick look to see if any studies or analysis had been done.

One thing I would like to mention too is that the question of whether to steal or not to steal is affected by the base stealer, the hitter, the pitcher, the catcher and the game situation. The more information a manager or player has available to him, the better his chances of making the right choice.

If one goes by the "book," he'll likely be right more than he's wrong. But perhaps not as often as he could be with more information.

There is one question I would like to ask, Boly. This would differ by pitcher and by throw, but how much does a throw to first base take out of a pitcher's arm? As you know, pitch count is used a lot, but I'm not aware of throws to first base being counted at all. Similarly, I wouldn't think an intentional walk would count as more than one "pitch" at the most. This season it won't count as any!

[Rog]

I think getting on base is far more important than runner speed. I would rather have Buster Posey leading off than a fast guy with an OBP 50 points lower. Obviously I'd bat Buster lower to take advantage of his hitting and power, but in a vacuum where I'm looking ONLY at which hitter would make the better lead off man, Buster would be better than some much faster runners.

And while speed IS important, solid base running can sometimes be as good as speed. Judgment doesn't totally make up for speed, but it can do a fair amount to reduce the advantage. For his (lack of) speed, Buster is a good base runner. He's especially good for a CATCHER, even though I think he is as slow as or slower than the average catcher.

[klaiggeb]

Roger, believe me, ALL base stealers, not the Joe Panik 5 for 5 guys, effect the pitcher.

And when I say "base stealers," I'm talking guys who can, will and might steal 25 +

Not the other guys.

Not the 5 for 5 guys.

Not a Parker, not a Crawford, but a Nunez or a Span IF Span would start to run again; if he's healthy enough to run again.

boly

[sfgdood]

Both of you are right...depending on the situation. Late in the game, 1 run lead a pitcher surely will be preoccupied with a base stealer at first. But if the tying run is on base and a great hitter is up, the pitcher will be gripping the ball a bit tight too.

[klaiggeb]

Randy: I just tuned in and saw the score at 5-0 Milwaukee.

Did Jeffy the Stubborn get lit up... again?

boly

[sfgdood]

Yes the pitches that got hit were up. I will say in the middle part of his outing, Jeff did pretty well...they got to him early and late

[Rog]

And when I say "base stealers," I'm talking guys who can, will and might steal 25 +


Rog -- That's kind of cool. We both used the same definition.




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