Giants Top 100 prospects -- Fan Graphs

[Rog]

There is good news and bad news for the Giants in Fan Graphs' Top 100 prospects.

The bad news is that only two Giants made the list, and they are ranked #69 and #86.  The good news is that Fan Graphs believes in Christian Arroyo's bat and third-base fielding enough to believe he will become an above-average third baseman, and they think Tyler Beede could project even higher than his current mid-rotation mark if he can improve his "fringey" command.

There is some additional good news and bad news here.  

The good news is that the Giants have done one of the major leagues' best jobs of developing lower-level prospects into contributing major league players. The bad news is that they've built much of their success this decade around two guys who were top five prospects -- Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey. That pair  -- and to a good extent, players picked up as free agents or in trades -- have made up for the lack of excellence among the other prospects.

The Dodgers have a bunch of top prospects.  The Rockies have very good players hitting the majors right now.  The Giants have their hands full in the upcoming seasons.

There are a lot of excellent potential free agents the next two winters.  But I see the lesser teams signing a higher percentage of those as the top teams try to stay below the luxury threshold.

As for the Giants, they have a tough decision to make with Hunter Pence in two winters, and Johnny Cueto can opt out at the end of this season, with Mark Melancon holding that same right a year later.  I see the Giants' outfield prospects as being improved now, although far from elite, but it seems many of the highly-drafted pitchers such as Kyle Krick, Chris Stratton and the now-traded Phil Bickford have disappointed.  As mentioned above, Beede remains a significant prospect, and Arroyo's timing should be just right for a potential third base opening a year from now.

If we look at the present roster, what is the big hole?  Left field, where thus far the Giants' prospects have failed to fill the bill.  Jarrett Parker has looked good this spring, but I certainly wouldn't bet the house on him.  I foresee the Giants' coming up with a temporary solution there  (Nunez?  Trade?) as the summer goes on, and hopefully some of the young outfield prospects will be able to plug holes over the next several seasons.  Two years from now, Pence, Span and Parker could all be gone.

[klaiggeb]

I wouldn't be the house on Parker, either, Rog... but...he's made some major changes in his set up at the plate, and that, plus his spring success have given me reason for hope.

1-All of that ridiculous, excess movement is gone.

2-He's being much more patient and selective as his OBP would indicate

3-He's driving in runs... something Mac is NOT doing.

Mac, 2 HRs, 3 RBIs. Parker 3 HRs...10 RBIs.

going into spring, I thought Mac would win the job in a run away.

Not the case, as the RBIs would indicate.

And Mac is STILL darned near a butcher in the OF.

boly

[Islandboagie]

Rog- The bad news is that only two Giants made the list, and they are ranked #69 and #86.

Boagie- The good news is Fan Graphs is a joke. I don't think Brandon Crawford was ever in the top 100 prospects and now he's one of if not the best shortstop in baseball. Was Panik ever ranked? Just won a gold glove. These guys misfire far more than they hit the target.

[sfgdood]

Maybe Terry Collins is Fan Graphs' consultant on Shortstops.

[Rog]

Boagie- The good news is Fan Graphs is a joke.


Rog -- You don't know enough about Fan Graphs to intelligently call it a joke, Boagie.

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[Rog]

Good observations on Parker, Boly.

[Rog]

Maybe Terry Collins is Fan Graphs' consultant on Shortstops.


Rog -- We go over this time after time, Randy. It's just one of those things that happens. It began with the Cubs fans voting Addison Russell to the starting shortstop position. He's very good, but he didn't deserve to make the team, let alone start the game. That started a chain reaction that led to Brandon's not making the team.

Remember, Bruce Bochy made some very questionable decisions in placing a lot of iffy Giants on the All-Star team. At least Collins didn't do it with one of his own players.

And it's not as if Aledmys Diaz was totally undeserving. While Crawford is clearly the better defender, Diaz wound up the season with an OPS that was over 100 points higher than Brandon's. Diaz was pretty good too.

But remember, the fans started the chain reaction. Russell too is a very good shortstop. His fielding was close to Brandon's, and he drove in 100 runs. But I personally would take Corey Seager and Brandon over Russell, and I would quite possibly take Diaz as well.

Not to mention Trevor Story, he of the 27 homers in 342 at bats and a .909 OPS. That's Banks-like. Ernie had only three seasons with an OPS higher than .909, and he was the MVP in two of them. There were more qualified shortstops than spots open.

Brandon has gotten over it. Shouldn't we all?



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[Rog]

I don't think Brandon Crawford was ever in the top 100 prospects and now he's one of if not the best shortstop in baseball. Was Panik ever ranked? Just won a gold glove. These guys misfire far more than they hit the target.


Rog -- No one gets it right all the time. But the knowledgeable sources such as Baseball America, MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, Fan Graphs and John Sickels do a pretty good job. Better than the scouts that draft the players, in fact. (They also have more information than the scouts, since the players have more of a track record at the time of the respective evaluations.)

Because I know it pretty well and because the top 11 prospects were all the way from non-factors to potential Hall of Famers before the draft fell off very quickly, let's take a look. I'll use the rankings of Baseball Prospectus for reference, since it is something like Fan Graphs and is easy to find. To make it simple, I'll use the player's WAR.

#1 pick -- Luke Hochevar. Highest B-P ranking: #23 WAR: 3.1

#2 pick -- Greg Reynolds. Highest B-P ranking: #82 WAR: -1.6

#3 pick -- Evan Longoria. Highest B-P ranking: #3 WAR: 46.4

#4 pick -- Brad Lincoln. Highest B-P ranking: #83 WAR: 0.5

#5 pick -- Brandon Morrow. Highest B-P ranking: #74 WAR: 8.6

#6 pick -- Andrew Miller. Highest B-P ranking: #17 WAR: 5.2

#7 pick -- Clayton Kershaw. Highest B-P ranking: #6 WAR: 54.4

#8 pick -- Drew Stubbs. Highest B-P ranking: #96 WAR: 8.8

#9 pick -- Billy Rowell. Highest B-P ranking: #67. WAR: Never played above AA. Out of baseball in six years.

#10 pick -- Tim Lincecum. Highest B-P ranking: #6. WAR: 21.1

#11 pick -- Max Scherzer. Highest B-P ranking: #90. WAR: 38.0

As you can see, Baseball-Prospectus had it FAR closer than the scouts. As I mentioned, they had more of a track record on which to base their ratings, giving them a natural advantage. But look at how much CLOSER they were than the scouts.

As for Brandon Crawford, B-P never had him ranked in the top 100. He was drafted #117 overall, and hit .204 as a rookie. He is a career .252 hitter. His trademark has been his glove, but even the Giants ranked his defense behind that of Ehire Adrianza when the two were in the minors.

Regarding Joe Panik, Joe was never ranked by B-P either, although I did see him in the top 100 elsewhere.

B-P is far from perfect. No one is when it comes to evaluating players. But overall they are clearly better than the scouts.



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