Matt's fat ERA

[Rog]

He got a little better as he went along, but nine hits in 4.1 innings in an important start is far too many for Matt Cain.  Apparently Bruce Bochy has been somewhat pointed in saying that Matt has to deliver to win the fifth starter spot.  He's got perhaps three more outings to do so.  

He did strike out five and walked no one.  I can't remember the batter, but Matt just couldn't put him away despite an 0-2 count, and the batter lined a single to center.  Batters are hitting .373 against Matt this spring.  He's walked only three and yielded one home run in 15 innings, but his WHIP isn't exactly cracking at a 1.87 level.

I'm hoping our resident pitching mechanics expert, Boly, saw some improvement.  Significant improvement.

[klaiggeb]

Bochy seemed... well, pleased with Cain's last outting vs Colorado.

I was not.

Though I didn't see the game, and I'm ONLY looking at numbers... the 10 Ks are good, but 3 ER in 4 2/3 inning is not.

Nor were the number of hits he allowed.

I'm a Cain fan... but he's got to do better.

As to mechanics, last year, before all of his injuries, I thought his mechanics were fine; as they always had been.

The difference, and only Cain mentioned it briefly in the past, is that with those chips out of his elbow, he's getting arm extension he hasn't had in almost a decade.

THAT can, will, and obviously HAS effected his release point.

And it is very apparent to me that finding that release point has BEEN and continues to BE Matt's problem.

Not his stuff, as the 10K's testify.

Again, I'd start his season in AAA. I DON'T want to be giving away wins at the Major league level while he works to 'find' himself.


And I'm also in agreement with Randy; Blach has ALWAYS been a starter.

The mental pre game, and the warming up part are so VERY different, that that could very well be what he's struggled with.

boly

[Islandboagie]

Boly- And I'm also in agreement with Randy; Blach has ALWAYS been a starter.

The mental pre game, and the warming up part are so VERY different, that that could very well be what he's struggled with.

Boagie- Blach, as a rookie, came in as relief during the NLDS and pitched beautifully. He came in as relief down the stretch as well, also pitching beautifully. I don't think TY Blach struggles with being ready for the task that's handed to him, which is why he's being considered for a bullpen spot if Cain lands the starting job.

[klaiggeb]

Very good points, boagie.

Then again, last year, it was all new to him.

No time to think.

This year, it's different. he's actually fighting for a starting spot.

boly

[Rog]

The mental pre game, and the warming up part are so VERY different, that that could very well be what he's struggled with.


Rog -- You could be right, but up until this last spring training start, Blach had done very well out of the bullpen. And if a pitcher is going to start an inning, not enter it mid way, he should simply pretend he's starting the game. Finish his warmup and come in while his team bats. Or simply warm up and come into the game, as he would at home.

But this is just spring training, and as Matt Moore showed today, a pitcher can turn it around quite quickly.

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[Rog]

Not his stuff, as the 10K's testify.


Rog -- Matt has struck out his 10 batters in 15 innings, which doesn't indicate dominant stuff. Worse, his 10 strikeouts have come over a apan of 72 batters, for a strikeout percentage of 14%. That isn't close to Matt's peak strikeout percentage of 22% in both 2006 and 2012. Even last season, he was at 18%.

And it isn't as if he isn't trying his hardest. He's pitching for his major league life.

Matt has mentioned the added extension before. One would think it would be an advantage, but you make an excellent point about its affecting his release point. You're right that it doesn't seem to be because of a lack of speed that he struggles. As recently as 2012 he was very effective at 91 mph, and he was still at 90 mph last season. Matt hasn't thrown over 92 since 2009.

[Rog]

Then again, last year, it was all new to him.

No time to think.

This year, it's different. he's actually fighting for a starting spot.


Rog -- Last season he pitched his way into a critical start in an extremely tight race for the playoffs in the penultimate game of the regular season. All he did was beat Clayton Kershaw (getting two hits in the process IIRC).

Maybe he should simply stop thinking. Or perhaps I should simply stop thinking about it!


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[klaiggeb]

I was referring to his strike outs in his last outting, Rog.

Now I didn't get to see the game, just the numbers.

Which, as you have just pointed out, can be misleading.

boly

[Rog]

In which game did Matt have 10 strikeouts this spring? In his last outing, Matt struck out 5 of the 22 batters he faced, which was indeed a big improvement over his previous games.

[Rog]

That Matt faced only 22 batters while giving up nine hits in 4.2 inning was an accomplishment in itself!

[klaiggeb]

Agree. To ME... he was, or rather, must have been, scrambling all day long.

That the Giants feel that, that outting keeps him in the "5th starter" race, befuddles me.

To ME... that outting was no different than all of his others this spring, except that this time, the runs didn't score.

That impresses me not at all.

boly

[Rog]

That the Giants feel that, that outting keeps him in the "5th starter" race, befuddles me.


Rog -- I think the Giants aren't going to be too negative about Matt until the last minute. I believe he's failing but that they'll give him every chance they can.




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[sfgdood]

it's not befuddling if you think about it. A pitcher with Matt's World Series pedigree could have some trade value. The Giants could be trying to showcase him in effort to acquire a left fielder.

[Rog]

A pitcher with Matt's World Series pedigree could have some trade value.


Rog -- I don't think Matt has any trade value at all at this point. If the Giants WERE able to trade him, they'd likely have to eat $25 million or more. Matt is being paid $20 million this season, and he's guaranteed a $7.5 million buyout for next season. If he plays for them in 2018, he'll earn $21 million.

So what's virtually certain to happen next season is that the Giants will be paying $7.5 million NOT to have Matt.

Now, if the Giants could pick up a right-handed hitting center fielder who could fill their fourth outfielder role and hit against lefties at least, I would eat $27 million to trade Matt for him. But when is the last time we heard of a team eating $27 million of what is essentially a one-year contract?

The bottom line on this though is that the Giants have plenty of respect for Matt and are going to go out of their way not to embarrass him -- which doesn't mean they won't hold a retirement event for him during the season -- as early as April.

My original expectation was that the Giants would place Matt on the DL to open the season. They could then get him some work in a rehab start or two, at least having him ready in case of an emergency. Realistically though, the guy who could easily get called up in such a situation could be Tyler Beede.


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[klaiggeb]

At the money Matt is owed, I can't see a market for him.

But I've said before, and I'll say again, he'll open the season in the rotation to "see" how he does "under the pressure" of the real season.

That is a mistake.

What he should be doing is opening the season in AAA.

Show me down THERE that he can get people out.

Why should we give up 4 or 5 games as potential losses to see if he's 'got it' again?

That is not smart, but it is EXACTLY what I predict they will do.

boly