Impressions... Part II

[klaiggeb]

Watched the game against Arizona today... what an Uninspiring performance by everyone not named Brandon Belt.

Terrible at bats by Beckham and pretty much everyone else.

1 Decent ab from Mac.

Blach spent the day hanging breaking pitches... which, I understand, is the norm for Arizona.

Blackburn...I see why you're still in the minors

Rollins, I can't believe will beat out Tomlinson.

Then again, as Bob Brenly said, at this time of year it's all about who still has options remaining.

If I'm the coaches I'd be asking the bubble-players this question; "do you really want to make this club?"

Pretty uninspiring, as I said.

boly

[Rog]

Teams have good days and bad ones. A poor performance makes it look like a team isn't trying, and a good one makes it appear the team is fully engaged. It's a chicken and egg thing, and an omelet performance doesn't necessarily mean the chicken was trying to cross the road any harder than a Humpty Dumpty performance does. In other words, the results can be scrambled.

[Rog]

Anyone want to predict which "bubble" players will make the team? Here is my crack at it:

P -- Blach (5th starter). Kontos, Okert, Gearrin, Hernandez. Stratton as the long man. Smith and Cain on the DL.

INF -- Gillaspie, Tomlinson, Morse (emergency outfielder)

OF -- Parker (LF starter), Ruggiano

Yes, this means 13 pitchers, but unless Hwang makes it (I think he'll start the season at Sacramento), I believe the Giants will attempt to protect their bullpen depth. A possibility Kontos or Gearrin could be traded for a backup outfielder, which could lead to "only" 12 pitchers. With no days off for 13 days though, there will likely be a baker's dozen, one for each of the 13 days.

There are so many variables, I would say the odds of this being the actual roster are 100 to 1 AT BEST. But, hey, it's fun to try.

[Rog]

Over at the McCovey Chronicles, Grant Brisbee is liking the chances of Hill, Hwang and Hernandez -- perhaps at the expense of Kelby Tomlinson, who has two options remaining, and Michael Morse. Hwang has all three options, but Hill can't be optioned without his consent.

Morse and Marrero are in a battle for between none and one spot at first base. I gave Morse the sentimental edge, although former high-level prospect Marrero is intriguing. There really isn't a spot for either except as the possible top right-handed pinch hitter. Either Morse or Marrero could be an emergency outfielder.

[klaiggeb]

Rog-A poor performance makes it look like a team isn't trying, and a good one makes it appear the team is fully engaged.

***boly says**

Rog, with 60 years in and around the game, I am aware of that.

I was just giving my impressions of what I saw, nothing more, and if I WAS Bochy, I WOULD have made those comments to the players trying to make the time.

half-assed, lazy swings at bad pitches... pitchers, Blach, and Clayton B... NOT bearing down and making better pitches.

You see it your way, as a life time spectator.

I see the game as I coached and played it.

Just a different perspective.

boly

[klaiggeb]

Rog: Over at the McCovey Chronicles,

Send me the link, would you please?

Thanks!

boly

[Rog]

www.mccoveychronicles.com/2017/3/9/14871366/sf-giants-spring-position-battles


Rog -- Here it is for everyone. I don't get over there nearly as much as I should, and I virtually never post there anymore. But Grant Brisbee is excellent, and he's now gone well beyond just the Chronicles, although he's still greatly in evidence there as well.

[klaiggeb]

thanks, rog

[Rog]

It seems like there's a lot of competition every pre-season for the final roster spots, but it seems to be at a higher level this spring, and that's a good thing.

The guys that most intrigue me are Hwang and Ramirez, although I expect both to start the season at Sacramento. If Hwang plays there, I'll definitely go watch him. I think David Hernandez was a good pickup, and I expect him to make it.

I'm rooting for Ruggiano, since as everyone here knows, I suspect Span will need a platoon partner. Maybe Randy can weigh in on whether he thinks Justin could play a little center field. He's done so a lot in the past, but he's also getting older (as almost all of us are!).

Gorkys Hernandez would be a natural platoon partner, but I'm not sure he'll hit enough. It would be a blessing if Ruggiano is able to play center. Unless Nunez could play some center, Justin is just about the only other option. And as Boly pointed out, there may not be time for Eduardo to learn the position.

On the other hand, Trea Turner was a minor league shortstop for the Nationals, but when they called him up, they needed him at second base and then in center. Turner is a heck of an athlete, and he was able to make a rather seamless transition almost immediately. So it's possible.

On the other hand, I saw some video of Eduardo in left field, and it wasn't pretty. But it was just a tiny bit of video, so I'm not sure how truly meaningful it was. That video came compliments of The McCovey Chronicles.

One thing I have thought about is that if Hwang shows he can start and Parker doesn't cut it in left field, the Giants might include Nunez in a trade for an experienced left fielder. Nunez is eligible for free agency after this season, so if he plays well, the Giant might extend him as they did Hunter Pence. Or it could go the other way, and he could become a trade piece. With Arroyo looming, he likely isn't in the Giants' long-term plans -- especially if Hwang shows he can play.

[klaiggeb]

I think you may be on to something in a Nunez trade, Rog.

I like him... but...I don't.

Love the speed, hate the "hack" approach at the plate.

Not my kind of player.

Plus, if he doesn't make it at 3B, but I'm sure he will, there is NO other place where he can go.

I can't see him as the "super utility" guy, unless HWANG forces the issue along with Parker and/or Mac.

boly

[sfgdood]

I have to weigh in on a few things. Nunez may have the prettiest, smoothest right handed swing I have seen in the two games I was able to attend. He's had a few swing throughs but every time he has connected, the ball is smoked. I don't want to give him up but with all the veterans on hand, and with the Giants wanting Arroyo to have a spot when he is ready, it certainly seems as if Edhuardo could be seen as trade bait. I like Hwang's swing too. I think Boly might be a little too rough on Ruggiano. From what I have seen, he has played in both games, Justin looks like a fine CFer and decent at the plate. Morse looks GREAT. He's in phenomenal shape, and is killing the ball. Bumgarner is an absolute freak of nature. He pitched 6 shutout innings and didn't look a bit gassed. He probably could have gone another inning or two but Bochy wanted Blach and Okert to get some work. Tomlinson is not impressing me. He looks like someone who has accepted that he is going to Sacramento.

[sfgdood]

Another interesting note...Steve "Bedrock" Bedrosian's kid, Cameron, got in the game late as a pitcher for LA. Didn't look as good as the old man

[klaiggeb]

Randy, I can only comment on the 5 or 6 at bats I've seen Ruggiano take in the 3 or 4 games I've seen.

I LIKE his swing; very compact.

What I haven't liked is that every time I've seen him, he's been over matched.

But to be fair, 5 or 6 at bats is not a good number of at bats with which to evaluate a hitter.

Sorry to hear that about Kelby.

the kid, at times, looks very awkward everywhere... but so does Pence.

Don't have to look "pretty" to be effective.

I've seen Hwang's swing, and I LIKE what I've seen.

Flat, short and compact.

boly

[Rog]

Thanks for covering Ruggiano's center fielding, Randy. If he can play center field, IMO he's a roster must. Who else do the Giants have to back up/platoon with Denard Span? The only other center fielder is Hernandez, and he is weak of bat.

Glad to hear Hwang looks good. It's hard NOT to like a guy from his highlight films, but Boagie and I were both impressed. I just read that he is considered short on range but had one of the best arms in the Korean League. Of course, he'll likely make or break himself with his bat, and last season he greatly increased his plate control -- without losing power. That's not an easy accomplishment mid-career.

Glad to see Nunez's swing looks good. He's still an asset, including having the best speed on the club. Sorry to hear Tomlinson doesn't look good. He too is fast, and he likely is the Giants' best base runner. Have you seen him at shortstop? It would be a big plus if he can play there when needed. Otherwise, Nunez could do so, of course. Speaking of which, how good do we think Tomlinson is at third base?

I like Tomlinson, but I do think he's overrated on his hitting. Tough to criticize a guy who has hit right at .300, but he has shown too little pop. He has a career .371 Batting Average on Balls In Play,and even though he has hit fly balls only 18% of the time, that's highly unlikely to continue.

Kelby's BABIP in the minors was only .337, or 34 points lower than so far in his limited major league sample. In fact, he hit only .275 in the minors, and how many players hit better in the majors than they did in the minors? A few do, but not very many.

To make matters worse, Kelby has hit the ball hard only 21% of the time. That's FAR below the major league average (somewhere around 30%). And he's hit infield fly balls on 15% of his fly balls, which is poor (10% is average). Kelby hasn't made much contact, so his .299 career average is based in part on his speed, but even more on luck it appears.

I like Kelby and hope he makes the team. But I think we are overrating his hitting. I'm worried about his fielding away from second. His base running is very good to excellent. All in all, I'd say he's a bit below par as a bench player, but not a horrible one. He's better than Emmanuel Burriss, but I think his bat is headed in that direction.

The more I look, the less sure I am that I want Kelby on the roster. It appears to me that he would be better off at Sacramento, working on developing more pop and improving his fielding around the diamond.

I'm kind of sorry now that I examined him. I really like him as a player, but I truly fear we're overrating him. He does draw a few walks, strikes out little, and hits into few double plays. But his minor league career average is just .275 (with a horrible .346 SLG), and if pressed, I would take the under on the .275 for this season.

The Giants have done a lot with Kelby's type of player, but just as I think Joe Panik is better than Matt Duffy, I think Matt is FAR better than Kelby. Kelby needs a lot of work, and I now hope he returns to Sacramento. I think he still has two options.

In my mind, the roster just opened up a bit.

[Rog]

And, yes, I do know that Kelby's hitting .333 this spring. But his BABIP is .391. I suspect Kelby's BABIP will gravitate toward something around .325, which would make him about a .250 hitter. I would probably take the over on his hitting above or below .250 the rest of his career, but not by much. Unless, of course, he improves. As for now, I think the Giants have better options.

[Rog]

Third base is set up for Arroyo next year. Eduardo is eligible for free agency after the season. I wouldn't be surprised to see Christian up before September. I'm not entirely sold, but I think he will be at least an average player. Christian is very smart, and he has great makeup. Third will likely be his best defensive position, so it's a fit.

He could hit with a little pop if he were more selective. He makesw almost TOO much contact. He needs to wait for HIS pitch. He would strike out a little more, but he would draw walks and likely hitter better and almost certainly with more power. He's a very bright kid, so he should be able to pick this up.

He's a little slow for the outfield, although he could probably play left field if needed. If he ever has to become a utility man, he's good enough around the infield to make it work. Short on range for shortstop, but he can play there. But he appears to be a starting caliber player, and probably a first-division starter.

[Rog]

Randy, you've probably seen a fair amount of Arroyo. What are your impressions?

[sfgdood]

I've seen a little bit of Arroyo...He looks confident. He definitely needs some more seasoning. I want to see more power from him. We'll see

[Islandboagie]

Boly- I've seen Hwang's swing, and I LIKE what I've seen.

Flat, short and compact.

Boagie- He does have a compact swing, but that's not really what interests me. It's the fact that he hits the ball out to the big part of the yard, and even goes the other way. Different swings work for different hitters.

Will Clark had a long sweeping swing, it looked pretty, but it wasn't exactly the way you'd want to teach your kid how to swing a bat.

Back to Hwang, a good number of his highlights were walk off homeruns or hits, so apparently he's good in the clutch as well. It should be interesting to watch him moving forward, I sure hope he Hwangs in there.

[Rog]

I sure hope he Hwangs in there.


Rog -- Digging it, Boagie.

Regarding his power, I read that most of his homers have come to his pull side. That is true of a lot of players, of course, but most of the very top power hitters can hit it out the other way, too. Think about Buster's homers. Even though he hits the ball well up the middle and to his off field, most of his homers are pull jobs.

It appears the ball became livelier after the 2015 All-Star game, so this should help Hwang. What I'm pointing out though is that as much as I think Hwang can succeed, we should temper our expectations for him. He wasn't a power hitter until the past two seasons (livelier ball in Korea too?), averaging about 10. The past two seasons he has hit 26 each.

Hwang was posted a year ago but got no offers. He hadn't yet developed the plate control he exhibited in 2016, and I suspect teams thought his 26 homers may have been a fluke. With the added plate control and a repeat of the 26 homers, he was still able to draw only a minor league pact.

If Hwang batted left-handed, I would be truly concerned about his power. Although Boagie and I saw him hit some SHOTS on film, I think that is the exception, not the rule. As a right-handed hitter, he should show power somewhere between Nunez and Buster.

Defensively, he has been known most for his arm and soft hands. Intriguing that the Giants tried him in left field last night. On the sacrifice fly, he showed a strong arm, but he also appeared to be caught a bit by surprise when the runner tried to score. His route to the ball was horrible too.

Now, if he took that route in order to have forward momentum to make his throw, that showed a lot of outfield smarts. But it strongly appeared he was simply fooled, thinking the ball was hit harder.

On the other side of the ball, the Rockies could be one of the most improved teams this season. That was true regardless, but did we notice how many of their guys were hitting over .300 this spring? Outfielder David Dahl put together a fine rookie season when called up last mid-season, and he's injured right now and not even playing. For the first time in a long time (ever?) and despite Coors Field, the Rockies are believed to have good arms in their rotation. The Rockies could threaten, although it seems they are likely to fall short.

Remember too how highly the Diamondbacks were thought of a year ago? They certainly have the potential to bounce back from a very disappointing season. The Padres? They too may be better, but it's difficult to see them as a threat.

Speaking of which, remember the big lead they held in 2010 before pulling an el foldo? This has not been their decade.