Span and the Giant Outfield

[klaiggeb]

If you've been on the Giant Web site today, you've already seen this, but since it verifies what I've been saying for a couple of months now, I thought I'd post it anyway.

"Span may not have been injured last year, but he was definitely hurting. Yes, I'm using figures of speech that'll probably anger you all over again. Simply stated, Span still was recovering from hip, back and core injuries that limited him to 61 games with Washington in 2015. The Giants knew this when they signed Span, so they weren't surprised when his first-half slash line last season went .248/.328/.343 with four homers. The center fielder's corresponding second-half statistics were .287/.336/.429 with seven homers. If Span can sustain what he did beginning last August, he'll reward the Giants' faith in him."

It's one of several reasons why I believe Span will be more like his old self this season.

boly

[sfgdood]

this is good but we still need a left fielder.

[klaiggeb]

Agree, Randy, but I'd be willing to bet that before the Giants spend any more money, they're going to give Williamson and Parker a chance to prove they can, or can't do it.

And if they can't, I'd watch for a deal at the trade deadline.

And honestly, I think it's worth taking the chance on the 2.

Parker has excellent power, and Williamson had incredible bat speed.



boly

[Rog]

I too have noted that Denard was better later in the season, although my comment had to do with fielding. Hopefully Denard will have a better 2017, but I'm fine with him against right-handers -- even leading off.

Here's a question I have to ask though Boly. Let's suppose that we evaluate Denard only on how he has hit LEFTIES the past four years. Wouldn't you agree that if that were our sole basis, he would at best be on a minor-league make-good contract? Against lefties the past four seasons, Denard has performed at no better level than a AA player -- perhaps an A level player.

Again, against righties I'm fine with Denard and would have him lead off. But against lefties I would have him tied to the bench hoping #1 that the Giants got a big enough lead to put him in for defense or #2, that the opponents went to their bullpen and brought in a right-hander.

Early in his career, Denard hit southpaws quite well. The past four seasons he hasn't hit them at a major league level.

[klaiggeb]

there are a LOT of LH hitters neutralized by LH pitching.

Why would I compare him to a AA player?

That makes no sense.

boly

[sfgdood]

Agree, Randy, but I'd be willing to bet that before the Giants spend any more money, they're going to give Williamson and Parker a chance to prove they can, or can't do it.

And if they can't, I'd watch for a deal at the trade deadline.

And honestly, I think it's worth taking the chance on the 2.

Parker has excellent power, and Williamson had incredible bat speed.

Dood - well that's obviously the plan and if it wasn't the plan to begin with, they missed their targets (again). There really isn't much left to go after, except those we don't really have the trading chips to obtain. So it looks like we're putting it all on two unproven guys to get the job done. I'm not optimistic.

[klaiggeb]

I don't know what to think about either, Randy.

Both have had their moments, for sure.

As I said, Jarret has tremendous power, Williamson, incredible bat speed.

I think Parker is far and away the better defender, but Mac is likely faster.

I think it's worth a shot because even with the incredible injuries last year, and all of the idiotic things that went wrong... we were within 3 outs of advancing in the playoffs.

3 stinking outs!

And we've improved the bullpen significantly by NOT signing Romo and Lopez, and added Meloncon and Smith

Now add in the year of experience for Law and Strickland and a healthy Gearrin.

I like out chances and I am optimistic.

boly

boly

[sfgdood]

Assuming:

1. we stay healthy
2. Panic, Posey and Pence give us what they are capable of
3. The big oaf finally grows up, and
4. we aren't too scarred from the choking we did

Then we can overcome failure of management to get a real LFer.

[klaiggeb]

I think 1, 2 and 4 won't be problems.

3? that one is problematic, but he's got a shot.

boly

[Rog]

there are a LOT of LH hitters neutralized by LH pitching.

Why would I compare him to a AA player?

That makes no sense.


Rog -- Denard Span is far more than a AA player. Against right-handed pitchers, he's a decent major leaguer -- for a center fielder, not bad at all. But against left-handed pitchers, Denard hasn't hit at a major league level over the past four seasons. You agree, don't you?

You are correct that almost all players have a platoon split. That's why platooning often makes sense. When it makes the most sense is when, for instance, one hitter hits very poorly against lefties or righties, and another player hits well against those same pitchers. The problem with Denard isn't that he has a platoon split, but that it is so large -- and because he's a good but not great hitter to begin with.

Here are Denard's platoon splits the past four seasons:

2013 -- .765 OPS against RH; .539 against LH.

2014 -- .802 RH; .694 LH. In the 2014 season Denard was acceptable against southpaws and very good against righties.

2015 -- .880 RH; .542 LH.

2016 -- .781 RH; .566 LH.


Three out of the past four seasons Denard has been unacceptable against southpaws. If we put the four seasons together, he's been unacceptable. Early in his career, Denard hit southpaws well. That's why his career average against them is decent. But something has changed, and unless Denard can get it back, he should sit against southpaws. I'm going to guess that among everyday players who have been primarily starters over the past four seasons, Denard's OPS against lefties is among the dozen worst in the game. Certainly it's FAR below average. He's been almost as bad as Pablo Sandoval.

Last season the average major league center fielder (and this includes both starters and reserves) had a .745 OPS. Against right-handers, Denard's was .781 (no problem). But against southpaws it was nearly 180 points below the league average -- including scrubbinis. Is that acceptable to us, Boly?

You agree, don't you, that if Denard had hit as poorly overall the past four seasons as he has against southpaws, he would no longer be a major leaguer? That's why he should ride the pine against most southpaws. And it is important for the Giants to have a platoon partner.

Unlike Denard, Madison Bumgarner bats right-handed. Madison's OPS against right-handed pitchers was four points higher last season than Denard's against southpaws. Madison's OPS against southpaws was within a point of Denard's against right-handers.

If the Giants ARE forced to play Denard against southpaws, they should bat Bumgarner ahead of him when they face a lefty pitcher.

Here's a fun one. We know that pinch hitting -- coming in cold off the bench -- is a tough job. In 2017, pinch hitters had an OPS that was 80 points higher than Denard's against southpaws.

See now, Boly, why I say that Denard is a platoon player? He's fine against right-handers, but he's unacceptable against southpaws. Against right-handers, he's a starting caliber center fielder. Against southpaws, he isn't even of bench caliber.


Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3721/span-giant-outfield#ixzz4Xy1e2hL9

[klaiggeb]

and if we had an alternative, I might agree.

But Gorkys Hernandez AIN'T that guy.

In addition, if Bochy is going to insist on carrying 12-13 pitchers there isn't room on the roster to platoon Span.

So I say we live with him, and stop arguing about it.

boly

[Rog]

and if we had an alternative, I might agree.

But Gorkys Hernandez AIN'T that guy.

In addition, if Bochy is going to insist on carrying 12-13 pitchers there isn't room on the roster to platoon Span.

So I say we live with him, and stop arguing about it.


Rog -- I'm hoping the platoon partner will be Ruggiano. I'm not sure whether he can still play center field. If not, the Giants should have signed Peter Bourjos, who just signed a minor league contract with the White Sox for $1.35 million.

Fitting extra players on the roster is a constant problem, but we showed why the Giants should be able to go with "only" a dozen pitchers. The rotation should pitch around 1000 innings, leaving perhaps 450 for the rest of the staff. In Will Smith and Derek at the very least, the Giants have pitchers who can pitch well against hitters of either hand. That would easily leave room for either Ruggiano or Bourjos.

At 13 relievers, it's tougher. Two catchers, plus Tomlinson and Gillaspie as backup infielders would leave only four outfield spots. Those would go to Span, Pence, Williamson and Parker.

Let's be honest here. The Giants have little power, and what they do have is stifled when they are at home. They don't have the speed to make up for it. Their offensive strength is the length of their lineup, and with Span playing against southpaws, the lineup becomes only seven players long instead of eight. That becomes particularly a problem if the Giants are unable to find the caliber left fielder they need, since the length could then be cut to just six.

Realistically, the Giants are likely to live with Span against lefties -- at least until the trade deadline or until Ruggiano shows he can play center field and the Giants show they can fit him onto the roster. If they were truly serious about platooning Span, they likely would have signed the inexpensive Bourjos. There may have been someone better available than Peter, although no one springs immediately to mind. Maybe Austin Jackson, who just signed a split contract that pays him $1.5 million if he makes the Indians.

Looking back though, Denard's inability to hit southpaws is a reason he shouldn't have been signed in the first place. The Giants weren't particularly effective against right-handers in 2015, and we suggested Dexter Fowler, in part because as a switch hitter, he can hit southpaws. As it turned out, Fowler was less expensive than Span, although after playing a season for the Cubs, he cashed in with the Cardinals this winter at 5/$82.5.

There is no way to know this, of course, but given how tightly the Giants played the Cubs in the NLDS, is it possible they might have defeated them if they rather than the Cubs had signed Fowler? Dexter didn't play well against the Giants, so perhaps it wouldn't have mattered. Then again, maybe having Fowler would have allowed the Giants to beat out the Dodgers for the NL West championship. Last season Fowler was a four-win player; Span was worth one win.

The Dodgers had a much harder time against southpaws than the Giants. That may have been part of their motivation to trade for Logan Forsythe. The Giants weren't particularly good against lefties last season, but at least they weren't horrible as were the Dodgers.





Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3721/span-giant-outfield#ixzz4Y2o9Jpwm

[Rog]

we were within 3 outs of advancing in the playoffs.


Rog -- That isn't true, although it could be argued that the Giants were within 30 outs.




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[Rog]

I think Parker is far and away the better defender, but Mac is likely faster.


Rog -- I'm far from certain about this, but I think Jarrett is the faster of the two. Jarrett has has seasons with 28, 20 and 19 steals, while Mac has stolen only 22 in his entire minor league career. In addition, Jarrett has started 112 minor league games in center field, while Mac has never played there.

IIRC, Jarrett had the reputation for being a toolsy outfielder when the Giants drafted him in the 2nd round in 2010. Parker stole 48 bases in his three years at Virginia, and he stole 10 bases in the Cape Cod collegiate summer league in just 96 at bats. Williamson stole 35 bases in three seasons at Wake Forest, and stole five more in the summer league in which he played.




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[klaiggeb]

You're right, Rog.

I should have said 3 outs from forcing a final game...and wasn't Cueto due to throw?

I would have liked out chances.


boly

[klaiggeb]

Rog, you are very well aware that SB is NOT an indicator of speed.

I've watched them both run, and until I see the stop watch times, I'm giving the edge to Parker.

Heck, if I'm wrong, so what?

I'm all in for giving both a shot the first couple of months of the season.

boly

[Rog]

Although Lester won their matchup in game one by a 1-0 score on Baez's home run, I would have LOVED to have seen Johnny and Lester match up for game, set and match.

[Rog]

I've watched them both run, and until I see the stop watch times, I'm giving the edge to Parker.


Rog -- Freudian slip?




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3721/span-giant-outfield?page=1#ixzz4Y3uUt8rt

[Rog]

How does the Giants' outfield rate -- right now?

RF -- Hunter Pence was rated #8 by the MLB Network. Let's go with that.

CF -- Denard Span wasn't rated in the top 20 by the MLB Network, but for simplification, let's go with #20.

LF -- With no certain starter, the Giants have to rank in the bottom five. For simplification, let's go with #30.

Depth -- When there isn't anyone who is sure enough to be a clear starter, it's unlikely there is depth, which of course there isn't. Let's go #25 here.


Adding those four up, we get 83, which divided by four is 21. The Giants' outfield ranks perhaps 21st in the majors. That's not very good. And that assumes everyone is healthy. Let's throw in health as another category and say the Giants rank #30. Now we've got 113, which divided by five is 23.

It is quite possible the Giants' outfield is #23 in the majors -- or worse. That's not quite what we want for a team to be a strong contender.

The rotation is excellent. The bullpen should be fine. The catching is the best in the game, including a nice backup in Nick Hundley. The infield is one of the best, especially defensively. If the Giants had even an average outfield, they would be looking reasonably good.

As it is, they appear to be an above-average team that could be clearly above average if the outfield comes through.

Let's look at the best case. Pence is #8, Span is #20, Williamson/Parker is #25, and the depth is #20. The health is 100%. Best-case, the Giants' outfield is 73/4, which equals #18. Best-case, the Giants' outfield is in the middle of the third quartile.

How about worst case? Pence plays half a season as he has over the past two seasons. Span plays two-thirds of the season as has been the case the past two seasons. Williamson/Parker isn't as good as Williams Sonoma. The depth is average. Now we've got an outfield that ranks near the bottom of any outfield in baseball.

The Giants' outfield is likely to rank in the third or fourth quartiles. That's just not good enough. Be ready for the trade deadline, and if an opportunity comes up sooner, leap on it.

If the Giants had another average outfielder, they still wouldn't be likely to have an average outfield -- but it would be better than it is now.

The Giants have built or fixed just about every other area. True, they have poor power, but they have good hitting overall. No, they don't have much speed, but their defense is about as good as it gets. The Giants as a team are fine.

Except for the outfield, which is a bit of an outlier.

Some will say that Williamson and/or Parker might turn out to be OK. I would ask first, what signs are there that will be the case? Then I would ask, if they are likely to get the job done, how much would they bring in trade? I think the answer to that is, very little, meaning they are unlikely to fix the problem.

Given the health issues the Giants have had in their recent outfields, they should have four outfielders who are average or above. As it turns out, they have one. They're three short on outfielders, or if we think Span will be average or above, say two. Make it two and a half outfielders short. Throw in good health, and the number perhaps drops to two or even one and a half. The bottom line is that the Giants could use more good outfielders.

They have depth behind the plate now. They have some depth in the rotation. The bullpen looks like it could flesh out. The infield depth is decent. But their outfield is clearly below average. That's not what we want.

We should get our focus off Brandon Belt and back on filling out a good outfield. Right now the Giants' outfield is out to lunch.

[klaiggeb]

I'm in.

I've had enough of the Belt discussion to last me two life times.

You're more worried about our outfield than I am, Rog.

What we NEED in CF and RF is good health!


LF is a bit more complex.

One of those guys, Mac or Parker, needs to step forward and win the job...

Failing that...well, that's plan B, C, and D.

boly

[Rog]

Good health in right field should do the job. When healthy, Hunter has been a good player -- and apparently a great motivator! I love his attitude.

Center field should be OK -- not great -- against right-handed pitching, but at this moment there isn't any clear option to hit southpaws or back up Span.

I think we agree on left field. Right now it's one of the worst positions in the major leagues, but it can only go up from here.

[Rog]

One last question on Brandon Belt, Boly and Randy, and I'll just let your responses be the last. Among the 30 first basemen in the majors, where would you rank Brandon? From the disappointment you have expressed, it sounds as if you think he's well below average. Otherwise, why would you be so eager to get rid of him?

[klaiggeb]

Best I could rate him offensively, would be middle of the pack.

Defensively, top 1/3. Not top 5 because of his brain dead moments.

He has soft hands, but he'll never be in Will Clark's category, much less JT Snow.

boly

[sfgdood]

I agree with Boly...PLUS, he's a mental midget and a sickening pansy

[Rog]

One positive about Denard Span's second half is that he may be the only Giant to hit better in the second half than the first. One disappointment in his second half though is that he had his second-worst month of the season in September. He was decent in July and excellent in August.