Post by Rog on Jan 19, 2017 14:41:34 GMT -5
Ivan Rodgiruez yesterday became only the second catcher to be voted into the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility. Johnny Bench was the other. I have predicted there is a good chance Buster Posey will become a first ballot Hall of Famer. Pro and con, how does Buster compare to Ivan?
First, how the two compare seems considerably different based on whether Ivan used steroids or not. There is no strong tie between Rodriguez and steroids, so let's assume he's not.
Where Ivan excels:
. By the time he was Buster's age, Ivan was playing better than Buster is right now. He was hitting better than Buster and had a wonderful defensive reputation.
. Ivan once stole 25 bases in a single season. Clearly he was far faster than Buster, whose career high is 6.
. Ivan's career high in homers is 35, he drove in a high of 113 runs, and he twice scored 116 runs. Ivan was already a perpetual All-Star, Gold Glove and Silver Slugger machine.
Where Buster excels:
. Buster plays in a much less hitter-friendly environment than Ivan did, and thus his career OPS+ of 136 (36% above average) far overshadows Ivan's 106 (6% above average). If Ivan didn't use steroids (our assumption here), that difference drops quite a bit.
. Buster is coming on strong defensively, whereas there is starting to be a little skepticism about Ivan's ability to handle his pitching staffs and to frame pitches. No one questions his throwing though.
Buster is highly regarded by the press and by fans. He's still got a ways to go to catch up to Ivan, who played 22 seasons. If Buster played in more of a hitters' park, his numbers would be even better than they are, and he would be even more highly regarded. As it stands, he's probably somewhat better than his raw stats project, meaning that while he's overrated for what he has accomplished, he may not be all that much overrated given how difficult it is to hit at AT&T.
By the way, AT&T wasn't as much of a pitchers' park last season, so Buster's down year would look even worse had the park played as tough as usual. If Buster is truly in decline, that will hurt (but likely not eliminate) his chances for the Hall. If his down season was caused by injury and he can bounce back strongly, he's should remain on track.
Buster could become the third catcher to become a first ballot Hall of Famer. He likely will if he stays on track.
First, how the two compare seems considerably different based on whether Ivan used steroids or not. There is no strong tie between Rodriguez and steroids, so let's assume he's not.
Where Ivan excels:
. By the time he was Buster's age, Ivan was playing better than Buster is right now. He was hitting better than Buster and had a wonderful defensive reputation.
. Ivan once stole 25 bases in a single season. Clearly he was far faster than Buster, whose career high is 6.
. Ivan's career high in homers is 35, he drove in a high of 113 runs, and he twice scored 116 runs. Ivan was already a perpetual All-Star, Gold Glove and Silver Slugger machine.
Where Buster excels:
. Buster plays in a much less hitter-friendly environment than Ivan did, and thus his career OPS+ of 136 (36% above average) far overshadows Ivan's 106 (6% above average). If Ivan didn't use steroids (our assumption here), that difference drops quite a bit.
. Buster is coming on strong defensively, whereas there is starting to be a little skepticism about Ivan's ability to handle his pitching staffs and to frame pitches. No one questions his throwing though.
Buster is highly regarded by the press and by fans. He's still got a ways to go to catch up to Ivan, who played 22 seasons. If Buster played in more of a hitters' park, his numbers would be even better than they are, and he would be even more highly regarded. As it stands, he's probably somewhat better than his raw stats project, meaning that while he's overrated for what he has accomplished, he may not be all that much overrated given how difficult it is to hit at AT&T.
By the way, AT&T wasn't as much of a pitchers' park last season, so Buster's down year would look even worse had the park played as tough as usual. If Buster is truly in decline, that will hurt (but likely not eliminate) his chances for the Hall. If his down season was caused by injury and he can bounce back strongly, he's should remain on track.
Buster could become the third catcher to become a first ballot Hall of Famer. He likely will if he stays on track.