Post by Rog on Dec 28, 2016 8:29:10 GMT -5
The Giants are said to be willing to "get creative" to trade for Twins second baseman Brian Dozier. But the thinking seems to be that the Twins are in no rush to deal, and that the leader if they do would be the Dodgers. The Cardinals and Nationals are also believed to be in the bidding.
The Dodgers are said to be willing to part with excellent pitching prospect Jose De Leon, but the Twins are asking for more. The Giants just don't seem to have the prospects to match that.
Dozier broke out last season with 42 home runs. He had average 23 over the previous three seasons, increasing by five homers each year. That gap increase to 14 last season, a 50% increase over 2015. Dozier saw a 40% increase in his home run per fly ball rate, so much of the increase will likely go away. 30 to 35 seems likely, and his right-handed power shouldn't be hurt too much by AT&T.
Dozier is under team control for $15 million over the next two seasons. I would think a package would need to be headed up by Joe Panik though, so any deal might be somewhat self-defeating. Not that Dozier will be the one available, but a year from now the Giants may have better prospects, and a better free agent market may make trading easier.
Incidentally, I read something about the Giants switching Panik to third base in the event they acquire Dozier without Panik's being in the deal. It would seem to me that the lesser-fielding Dozier would be the one to switch.
De Leon is a very good pitching prospect that could anchor the top bid for Dozier. Kolten Wong of the Cardinals has also been mentioned as a younger replacement for Dozier. Wong is coming off a bad season though, and the Cardinals are said to be unwilling to part with top pitching prospect Alex Reyes, who posted a 1.57 ERA in 46 innings with the Cardinals late last season, striking out 52 after fanning 93 in 65 AAA innings.
Tyler Beede is said to be of interest to the Twins, but he isn't of nearly the quality of Reyes or De Leon, at least not at this point. Just a thought, but perhaps the Dodgers win the competition and get Dozier for De Leon and first base prospect Clay Bellinger, although that would mean trading their top two prospects for just two seasons of Dozier. It may be that the Twins are asking for the above duo, while the Dodgers are offering De Leon and a lesser pitching prospect or two.
I don't know how much we know about the prospects of other teams, but in many cases, the Giants just can't compete. The Giants have done a nice job of developing lesser prospects such as Joe Panik (himself a very good prospect but not a top one) and Matt Duffy. But since trading Zack Wheeler, they have been lacking in very top prospects.
The word was that in 2011 the Giants offered Wheeler or Gary Brown to the Mets for Carlos Beltran, and while Wheeler's career has been delayed by injury, the Mets clearly made the right choice.
As I mentioned, a year from now the Giants' prospects may have developed and improved their ratings. Perhaps even by the trade deadline. But as hard as Bobby Evans seems to be trying, a top deal doesn't seem to be in the cards right now.
I say that hoping I can be wrong and that Bobby can pull one off. As Randy mentioned, you don't get points simply for trying. But once in a while trying hard enough can make the seemingly impossible at least plausible. Right now seems to be a sellers' market for qualified major leaguers though. Teams are demanding and sometimes making a big haul.
The Dodgers are said to be willing to part with excellent pitching prospect Jose De Leon, but the Twins are asking for more. The Giants just don't seem to have the prospects to match that.
Dozier broke out last season with 42 home runs. He had average 23 over the previous three seasons, increasing by five homers each year. That gap increase to 14 last season, a 50% increase over 2015. Dozier saw a 40% increase in his home run per fly ball rate, so much of the increase will likely go away. 30 to 35 seems likely, and his right-handed power shouldn't be hurt too much by AT&T.
Dozier is under team control for $15 million over the next two seasons. I would think a package would need to be headed up by Joe Panik though, so any deal might be somewhat self-defeating. Not that Dozier will be the one available, but a year from now the Giants may have better prospects, and a better free agent market may make trading easier.
Incidentally, I read something about the Giants switching Panik to third base in the event they acquire Dozier without Panik's being in the deal. It would seem to me that the lesser-fielding Dozier would be the one to switch.
De Leon is a very good pitching prospect that could anchor the top bid for Dozier. Kolten Wong of the Cardinals has also been mentioned as a younger replacement for Dozier. Wong is coming off a bad season though, and the Cardinals are said to be unwilling to part with top pitching prospect Alex Reyes, who posted a 1.57 ERA in 46 innings with the Cardinals late last season, striking out 52 after fanning 93 in 65 AAA innings.
Tyler Beede is said to be of interest to the Twins, but he isn't of nearly the quality of Reyes or De Leon, at least not at this point. Just a thought, but perhaps the Dodgers win the competition and get Dozier for De Leon and first base prospect Clay Bellinger, although that would mean trading their top two prospects for just two seasons of Dozier. It may be that the Twins are asking for the above duo, while the Dodgers are offering De Leon and a lesser pitching prospect or two.
I don't know how much we know about the prospects of other teams, but in many cases, the Giants just can't compete. The Giants have done a nice job of developing lesser prospects such as Joe Panik (himself a very good prospect but not a top one) and Matt Duffy. But since trading Zack Wheeler, they have been lacking in very top prospects.
The word was that in 2011 the Giants offered Wheeler or Gary Brown to the Mets for Carlos Beltran, and while Wheeler's career has been delayed by injury, the Mets clearly made the right choice.
As I mentioned, a year from now the Giants' prospects may have developed and improved their ratings. Perhaps even by the trade deadline. But as hard as Bobby Evans seems to be trying, a top deal doesn't seem to be in the cards right now.
I say that hoping I can be wrong and that Bobby can pull one off. As Randy mentioned, you don't get points simply for trying. But once in a while trying hard enough can make the seemingly impossible at least plausible. Right now seems to be a sellers' market for qualified major leaguers though. Teams are demanding and sometimes making a big haul.
