Giant Grades

[Rog]

What kind of Christmas present are the Giants this year?  How do they grade out?

Starting pitching --   Grade A minus     Madison Bumgarner is as solid as they come.  Johnny Cueto was just as good, although after coming in at 92.5 to 93.4 mph the past eight seasons, his fastball dipped to 91.5 mph in 2016.  Jeff Samardzija pitched at times like an ace and at others like a Four A pitcher.  He bounced back late in the season as he mixed in more curve balls.  Matt Moore is as solid a #3 as they come, and he's only #4 in the Giants' rotation.  Matt Cain, Ty Blach or a few other contenders should provide acceptable action as the #5 starter.


Bullpen --    Grade B/B+    The Giants' biggest weakness last season should be a plus this year.  Mark Melancon has been one of the game's top five closers in recent years.  Derek Law, Will Smith and Hunter Strickland have flashed closer potential.  Josh Osich and Steven Okert should replace Javier Lopez as the Giants' LOOGY.  George Kontos has been a solid middle reliever over his five year Giants career.  His strikeout rate has dropped noticeably, but his swinging strike rate has actually increased since 2014.  Cory Gearrin has done some nice pitching when healthy.  One of the losers of the battle for #5 starter should make a decent long man.


Catcher --    Grade A    Buster Posey's defensive performance has caught up with his offensive prowess.  Buster should bounce back offensively after a good-but-not-great season at the plate, one that may have been limited by injury.


Infield -- Grade B/B+    The two Brandons are at or near the top of their positions defensively, and both had good offensive seasons as well.  Joe Panik suffered through injury but should bounce back to also being a top two-way player if healthy.  Eduardo Nunez provides much-needed speed and was a defensive surprise a the hot corner.


Outfield -- Grade D+    Hunter Pence and Denard Span have battled health problems the past two seasons, and left field is in the hands of two older youngsters.  Pence has been an All-Star, but has missed about half of the past two seasons.  Span was healthier last season, but has been a wipe out against southpaw pitching three of the past four campaigns.  Mac Williamson and Jarrett Parker have long ball potential but might also be Four A players.  The Giants could use a starting left fielder and a platoon center fielder -- and good health.


Bench --   Grade D+   Kelby Tomlinson looks like a major league hitter but hasn't shown as much versatility as one would like, particularly as backup at shortstop.  Conor Gillaspie is a solid left-handed pinch hitter and backup third baseman.  Ehire Adrianza or Jimmy Rollins could back up shortstop, but neither has hit well of late.  Parker is more miss than hit, and Gorkys Hernandez has yet to prove he is more than a Four A player.  Nonetheless, he's the backup in center field at present.  Mac Williamson might make a good fourth outfielder, but he will likely be starting.


Overall --   Grade B/B+    The Giants could make a run at the NL West, and should at least compete for the Wild Card.  Aside from the Cubs, Red Sox, Indians, and perhaps Nationals, they can be as good as any team in baseball.  Give the Giants a strong outfield, and they could play with almost anyone.  The team has a Swiss cheese outfield, but is good to excellent everywhere else except the bench.  Let them make the playoffs, and they have shown they can be dangerous.

[Islandboagie]

Rog- Kelby Tomlinson looks like a major league hitter but hasn't shown as much versatility as one would like, particularly as backup at shortstop.

Boagie- his versatility is great, he can play 2nd, 3rd, SS and LF. He does make an error occasionally, but I think that will diminish with more playing time. But my question is..why is he not our left fielder? He hits the ball all over the field, he has good speed, he doesn't strikeout very often, but still draws walks. He should bat 2nd and play left field.

[klaiggeb]

Boagie, you're singing my song.

I began talking about Kelby as an outfielder, in particular a CF, long before Span was even on our radar.

But as you will recall.... I got massively poo-pooed for the idea.

Kelby has impressed me at the plate, especially when he gets regular playing time.

As you said, hits the ball all over the field, walks, rarely strikes out, and he has DEMONSTRATED that he does not fold in the clutch.


With all that said, however, what I've seen from Kelby at SS were rock hard, Emanuel Burriss-like hands.

Not soft hands as a SS must have.

He's much better at 2B, and okay at 3B, but 2B is kind of occupied with Joey P.

Kelby is below average turning the DP at 2B, too, but with a lot of hard work, would likely get better.


But even with hundreds of hours turning the pivot, IMHO he'll never be mentioned in the same breath as Joe.

Joe does it THAT wall.


Thus your point of the outfield.



Now the downside.


I recall both Duane and Mike saying that Kelby was a disaster out there in Fall-ball last year... and THAT perplexes the crap outta me.


If you can play the infield and have range to boot... that should transfer to the outfield.


I should know, I played all of them extensively.

Then again when I was a kid we played 3 FLIES UP a LOT!

You LEARNED to catch fly balls in traffic.

You LEARNED how NOT to crash into obstacles in pursuit of fly balls, such as a parked car, when chasing a fly ball.

In Kelby's generation... I don't think kids EVER head of the game, much less played it... and thus he may not have developed the skills necessary at a young age.

But even with all that, he'd play a LOT of outfield for me in the pre season and before that, I'd send him to what ever Latino seasons to learn.

You're so right; he's the perfect candidate.

boly

[sfgdood]

Farm System C-

Front Office F (for failing to get a badly needed closer, costing us the division title and ultimately eliminating us from the postseason).

[Rog]

I agree with continuing to have Kelby work in the outfield. In the best case, perhaps he could play well enough there to play center field, where he might even be an above-average hitter. Maybe. I'll get into that in a little bit.

Right now though the Giants apparently don't consider him close to being a capable outfielder. For them -- and Krukow and Kuiper -- to say he was lousy in the AFL, he must have been really bad. I mean the guy has enough speed to run down plenty of mistakes in judgment and bad routes. As an infielder, he should be able to field outfield ground balls well. His arm seems strong enough.

So something must be fundamentally wrong. I would work him hard to overcome that, but at present he must simply not be good enough. He has an .814 career OPS against southpaws, so he would seem to make a decent platoon player with Denard Span. I really like the idea. Hopefully he's working hard this winter on playing the outfield. He could get some playing time in the outfield, whereas if everyone stays healthy on the infield, there isn't much available for him. Especially since the Giants would want to get Conor Gillaspie some time.

Now, how well should we expect Kelby to hit? He hit nicely as a rookie, batting .303 with a .762 OPS. That isn't bad, especially as a platoon player. Last season he hit a more than decent .292, but with a disappointing .700 OPS. Which player is he?

Well, his .367 BABIP (compared to .337 in the minors), would indicate his average will quite possibly fall off to about .270 to .275. His .347 OBP on a .275 BA in the minors indicates he might be able to get on decently, but he has very limited pop. In the minors, his SLG was just .346, and it doesn't seem likely to improve a big amount in the majors.

What we have in Kelby now is a guy who can play a nice second base and barely scrape by at third base, shortstop and in left field. Hopefully he will expand his fielding. He hits well enough right now against southpaws to be a platoon player, with his bat playing best in center field or at shortstop. Unfortunately, those appear to be his worst two defensive positions.

Right now Kelby is probably suited to be a platoon second baseman and pinch hitter against southpaws. Even against southpaws, his bat may be a little light for the keystone, but it's certainly playable. The problem is that Joe Panik hits southpaws well enough that he might not need to be platooned. Joe Panik last season? Platoon player. Joe Panik as I expect him to be this season? No need to be platooned.

So right now Kelby shows the potential to help out as at least a platoon player. And there's an opening for him in that regard -- if he can learn to play a passable center field. He could also be valuable in that regard is Panik doesn't revert to form.

Maybe Kelby will hit better than my projection. But I think there's plenty of reason to expect him to drop off back toward the .275 he hit in the minors. He has hit the ball hard in only 21% of his at bats. That likely translates to LESS than a .270 average in a larger sample. By comparison, even with his down season in 2016, Panik has hit the ball hard 27% of the time.

On the surface, Tomlinson would seem like a right-handed hitting Joe Panik without the exceptional glove. But he really isn't. He strikes out more often and doesn't hit the ball as hard. Tomlinson may well have over-performed in his brief major league career.

[Rog]

I think I'll downgrade my evaluation of the bench to a straight D. Modest hitting and limited versatility. No clear platoon partner for Denard Span. Conor Gillaspie and Jarrett Parker don't hit southpaws, and Tomlinson doesn't hit right-handers particularly well. Trevor Brown doesn't hit either southpaws or right-handers well. It's fortunate the Giants aren't an American League team.

[klaiggeb]

Randy-Farm System C-

Front Office F (for failing to get a badly needed closer, costing us the division title and ultimately eliminating us from the postseason).

***boly says****

Though I agree with you that they didn't get the closer we needed, Randy, I can't score them that low.

Yeah, they ticked me off... but they DID get:

Cueto
Samardizja
Moore
Nunez
Smith.

THAT is pretty darned good for 2 seasons, let alone 1.

They blew it big time at the deadline, no question, and for THAT reason alone, I can't give them an A+

But I DO give them an A- for their body of work last year.

boly

[Rog]

Given that you gave up on the 2014 Giants and then wanted them to re-sign Pablo Sandoval after they went on to win the World Series, I'm encouraged for the Giants that you gave them an F grade, Randy. Since you gave them a horrible grade as you did the 2014 Giants, I'm encouraged. If you had given them a high grade was you gave Pablo, I would have been worried.

By the way, I do think Pablo will bounce back this season. The extent of his comeback may well be limited by how much he plays against southpaws. He can't hit them even as well as Denard Span can.

And the discouraging thing with Pablo is that in his first season of 2009, he pounded southpaws to the tune of a .379 batting average with a 1.028 SLG. Talk about regression!

I don't criticize the Giants all that often, but I said at the time that Pablo saved them from themselves. I think everyone here but you Randy realized that was probably the case.

If you're going to criticize the Giants, Randy, why not criticize them for the right things?

[Islandboagie]

I agree with continuing to have Kelby work in the outfield. In the best case, perhaps he could play well enough there to play center field, where he might even be an above-average hitter. Maybe. I'll get into that in a little bit.

Right now though the Giants apparently don't consider him close to being a capable outfielder. For them -- and Krukow and Kuiper -- to say he was lousy in the AFL, he must have been really bad.

Boagie- I recall the experiment in the AFL was cut short, but I don't remember anyone using the word "lousy."

From what I saw in his brief time in LF last season he was a capable defender that could learn the position. Don't you remember the assist he had at home plate?

[Islandboagie]

Rog- On the surface, Tomlinson would seem like a right-handed hitting Joe Panik without the exceptional glove. But he really isn't. He strikes out more often and doesn't hit the ball as hard.

Boagie- Does anyone strikeout less and hit the ball harder than Panik?

Kelby Tomlinson's 12 walks to 18 strikeouts is still a darn good ratio, and his OBP is also impressive. He's a smart hitter that puts the ball in play and has speed to boot. Seems to me that's a perfect makeup for being a #2 hitter.

[Islandboagie]

Rog- Tomlinson may well have over-performed in his brief major league career.

Boagie- I'll take someone that over performs over someone who under performs. You might be right though, he could fall off, but his performance thus far in his brief career should at least get him the chance to stick in the lineup.

[Rog]

Kelby Tomlinson's 12 walks to 18 strikeouts is still a darn good ratio, and his OBP is also impressive. He's a smart hitter that puts the ball in play and has speed to boot. Seems to me that's a perfect makeup for being a #2 hitter.


Rog -- The problem is that Kelby seems destined to hit 25 or even 30 points lower than he's hit thus far. Most players hit for a higher average in the minors than majors. Kelby has been the opposite. Most players have a higher Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) in the minors than the majors. Kelby has been the opposite. Most guys with .300 batting averages hit the ball hard a high percentage of the time. Kelby doesn't.

Kelby's 18/12 K/BB ratio last season was indeed good. His 58/26 career mark isn't nearly as good. Kelby's .362 OBP is very good, but that's based on hitting .299. Drop him to the .270-.275 he seems likely to hit in the future, and his OBP becomes so-so.

If Kelby can learn to play an acceptable center field, I'm all for platooning him there with Denard Span. Kelby's .814 career OPS against southpaws is enticing. There he could take the drop in batting average and still seem likely to outhit Denard by a bunch.

If Kelby can improve his defense outside second base, he can continue to be a valuable reserve. Otherwise, I don't think we will like him as well a year or two hence as we like him now. His batting seems likely to decline a bit. He's already at a very so-so .673 OPS against right-handed pitching. In order to remain a top reserve, he needs to improve his defense at other positions IMO.

I like Kelby as a reserve going forward. I just don't like him as well going forward as I've liked him the past two seasons. I too would rather have a guy playing over his head than under it. But looking forward, I would rather he be playing below his potential so that he has more room to grow.

An example of a player who played below his potential early in his career was Brandon Crawford. Certainly we've like Brandon as a hitter better since the end of his second season than we liked him over those first two seasons. Kelby has been a much better hitter than Brandon over their first two seasons. Looking ahead though, I'm not at all sure he keeps that edge. Brandon improved; Kelby seems likely to regress. That's the problem with playing over your head. It means you're more likely to fall back.



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[sfgdood]

The reason I give an F is because, although the body of work was quite good--possibly even excellent--the failure at the deadline UNDID all the good that was done.

[sfgdood]

I see the jackass stats nerd is up to his go to move of beating dead horses. If all our mistakes were to be brought up as an attack on our opinions, there would be none with any credibility among us. Let it go, stats geek...let it go

[Rog]

You're certainly right that we all make mistakes, Randy, but my point is that you seem to have developed a pattern of overreaction. Giving the Giants' front office an "F" over the past year plus is a pretty clear example of that. An "F" would mean there was little done right, and that certainly isn't the case.

You kind of pointed out your overreaction when you failed to mention the other deals at all, saying simply that missing out on the one need was enough to warrant an "F" grade. It wasn't, just as a more balanced look at the Giants in 2014 would have precluded giving up on them prematurely and looking at the broader (no pun) spectrum on Pablo Sandoval would at the very least have given you pause about recommending that the Giants re-sign him.

Let's put it this way, Randy. It was a lot better to have missed out on Melancon at this year's trade deadline and now signed up for four years of him than to have re-signed Pablo. Now THAT would have been a disaster, even given that I'm expecting a bounce back from Pablo this season.

Even if they had indeed re-signed Pablo, their off-season between 2014 and 2015 would likely have been worth more than an "F" grade, since they would still have been able to make at least another move or two. Over the past 13 months or so, the Giants have made MANY moves, most of them at least decent and some clearly very good. Ignoring them and giving the Giants an "F" shows blinders.

Much like were shown in 2014.

[Rog]

If we look at the respective approaches we take, Randy, mine is more like that of the modern GM, while yours is more like the GM's of old. In other words, you're in danger of becoming even more of a dinosaur than Boly! (Just joking, Boly, as to your credit you have done to yourself on the same topic. I too am becoming something of a dinosaur. But unlike the dinosaur, we're still alive!)

[sfgdood]

It didn't seem to have been "disastrous" for the Red Sox, even though Pablo has provided little production for them. If you have a wise FO that isn't afraid to go for a top FA because it might not work out, rather than going for a less expensive option that is almost sure to fail (McGehee), then you will always give yourself a better chance at success. If you are guided by spending less money and hoping for miracles, then you are rarely going to hit the jackpot. Aim high and if you fall a little short you will still go far...aim low and you will never reach the top of the mountain. Instead you will wind up with oafs like Belt and getting embarrassed in the LDS.

[Rog]

Signing Pablo indeed hasn't been disastrous for the Red Sox, and they are planning to play him at the hot corner again this season after an injury-shortened 2016 campaign. Pablo is said to be lighter this season, which bodes well. I would expect right-handed hitting Josh Rutledge to get a fair number of starts there against southpaws though.

Signing Pablo likely would have hurt the Giants more than it has hurt the Red Sox, who have more excellent young players and more payroll flexibility. Travis Shaw filled in nicely for Pablo last season. Well enough that he was an important piece in the Chris Sale trade.

[Rog]

Incidentally, this decade the Giants have hit the jackpot far more often than the Red Sox.

[sfgdood]

also interesting that ALL the Giants postseason success this decade has come with Pablo on the roster.

Just sayin

[Rog]

also interesting that ALL the Giants postseason success this decade has come with Pablo on the roster.

Just sayin


Rog -- Pablo was a very good postseason hitter in 2012 and 2014. Before he declined, he was a really good hitter.




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