Which five Giants have the most trade value?

[Rog]

One problem the Giants face right now is that the guys teams would like to trade the most for are pretty close to untradeable for the Giants.  Which five Giants players have the most trade value right now, and why?

[Rog]

Here is my quick list:

1. Madison Bumgarner -- One of the top starters in the game is on a bargain contract at age 27.

2. Buster Posey -- Considered by most to be the game's top catcher and a future Hall of Famer. Controlled through 2022 and still shy of 30 years old.

3. Brandon Crawford -- One of the game's top shortstop is just shy of 30 (next month) and is controllable through 2021.

4. Joe Panik -- Likely to return to very solid all-around play, is just 26, and is controllable through 2020.

5. Matt Moore -- Solid starter is just 27 and controllable for just $26 million through 2019.


It was tough to give up Matt Duffy, and Lucius Fox was one of the Giants' top prospects at just age 19, but at less than $10 million per season for three years, Matt Moore was a very desirable trade object. Trading for him was a coup, the type Boly wants more of in the future. The production of Duffy and the youthful potential of Fox made it possible.

Because of his sweetheart contract and outstanding pitching, Madison Bumgarner is one of the most tradeable players in the game. The Giants are wise to be looking at an extension.

Posey, Crawford and Panik would each be easy to trade. The first two have reasonable contracts, and Panik is a budding young star who hasn't even reached arbitration yet.

[klaiggeb]

How about trading... NONE of them.

Basically we have ZERO, outside of Belt, whom I WOULD trade in the right deal.

I'd like to move Posey to 1st, but that's NOT going to happen.

Of course moving Susac, we screwed ourselves, because in MY plan... I WOULD HAVE MOVED Posey to 1st and Susac behind the plate.

Brown is a good catcher but over a season? I'm not sure he'd hit enough to be my #1.


So with Susac gone, even my willingness to move Belt kind of hits the skids.

Bottom line:

On the major league roster I move NOT ONE of ours starters.

And absolutely NONE of the ones mentioned above.

I'd rather roll the dice with Mac and Jarret

boly

[Rog]

I don't expect the Giants to trade anyone at this point. I wasn't recommending they do so. I merely mentioned the players I thought had the most trade value.

Trade value used to be based almost entirely on talent. Now it is based on talent, controllabllity and contract. Bumgarner would be highly tradeable under almost any circumstances, but based on how cheaply he is controlled, he is one of the most tradeable players in baseball. Proven talent, young age, cheaply controllable. What a combination!

Next on my list, by the way, would be Belt. I think there would be a pretty big drop off after that. Strong pitching by Samardzija up until the trade deadline would likely make him decently tradeable as well. A strong start by Ty Blach would do the same. Right now Ty would be eminently tradeable, but not have high value.

Arroyo, Beede and other minor leaguers could significantly improve their trade value as well.

[Rog]

I would trade Williamson and/or Parker, but neither would command much at this point. The guys I originally mentioned -- plus Belt -- would have by far the most trade value on the 25-man roster. Next might come Arroyo and Beede. Someone might want to gamble on Samardzija. Some of the young relievers would be tradeable, but have little value.

Position-wise, I wish the Giants had signed Turner. I would have been fine with Fowler as well. But one can squeeze only so much blood out of a budget. Under the circumstances, I'm fine with Melancon. Given the budget, he definitely would have been in my top five.

[klaiggeb]

I wish the Giants had even PURSUED Turner... .but I'm not sure they did due to financial decisions.

Bottom line; at the Major league level we have no leverage to make a 'smart' trade.

boly

[Rog]

If Brandon Belt is as bad as you and Randy think he is, Boly, the Giants do have leverage for a smart trade. Brandon would bring a nice return, and while he isn't overly expensive this year, he'll be making a decent $16 million after that.

Given that Turner didn't get an arm and a leg to sign, I think he is the best bargain signing among the top free agents.

[klaiggeb]

No question I agree he'd bring a nice return... but his being moved leaves and UN FILLABLE hole that we can't fill in house SINCE Susac was traded.

and no team is likely going to trade 1 1B man for another.

boly

[Rog]

Good point about Brandon. Those who would trade him no matter what should indeed examine how they would fill the position.

I'm not a fan of Trevor Brown. I am a fan of Andrew Susac, but Andrew fared very poorly after the Giants traded him, and he's now listed as just the third catcher on the Brewers' depth chart. And that's AFTER they trade Jonathan Lucroy.

Don and Randy in particular want to move Buster to first base, and given his career marks while playing each position, one can make that argument. But beyond all else, what is the strength of the Giants? Their DEFENSE. And moving Buster from behind the plate can result in as many as THREE positions' declining defensively. And last season Buster hit a little better while catching than as a first baseman.

The Giants and Buster want him to catch, so there is no point in our beating the move Buster to first base thing into the ground. Buster's defensive development behind the plate makes a change all the more unlikely.

Just today I saw the idea for a "Cy Young Award" for catchers, with the article citing that Buster would have won it this past season. That's just not the type of player a team moves from behind the plate.

Buster would be extremely hard to replace behind the plate, either offensively or defensively. Brandon Belt isn't as hard to replace, but it's tough to find a player whose offense AND defense are as good as Brandon's.

Boagie brought up a very good point (which I was slow to buy into, but finally did), that there may not be an all-around shortstop as good as the other Brandon is. Not the the same extent, but if one look at Belt as a two-way player, it's tough to come up with a comp there. (Incidentally, IIRC I recently saw metrics that showed that Joey Votto had a very poor season defensively and that Anthony Rizzo was a very poor base runner.)

Is any other team as good defensively at the two through six positions as the Giants? I don't think so. That would no longer be the case if the Giants moved Buster to first base and Belt to left field.