Question for Boly and others

[Rog]

Let's say a guy hits .334 over his first three seasons in the majors and .201 the next four.  That's a huge difference.  Do you think we would be able to identify what he's doing differently mechanically?

Well, those are Buster Posey's batting averages on fly balls from 2010 through 2012 as opposed to 2013 through 2016.  What is different mechanically that has caused him to go from a great hitter -- and I mean GREAT -- on fly balls to an average or below-average fly ball hitter?

To put this into perspective, Miguel Cabrera may have been the best hitter in the game over the past decade or so.  He's hit .293 on fly balls.  Albert Pujols is a guy who has also been a great hitter.  Just .226 on fly balls.  Mike Trout .318.

How have Buster's mechanics changed the past four years that have caused him to go from a great fly ball hitter to so-so fly ball hitter?  Answer this, and perhaps we will be able to see why Buster's hitting has declined since his MVP season.

Also, what is it that has dropped his strikeout rate from 12.2%, 16.2% and 15.7% in those first three season to just 11.8%, 11.4%, 8.3% and 11.1% his last four seasons -- and yet seen his hitting fall off?  (Incidentally, Buster's line drive, ground ball and fly ball rates have held fairly constant over these periods, although this past season his ground ball percentage was up, and his fly ball percentage dropped.  Those changes this past season would explain some of his power drop.

Again, what are the mechanical changes, and why haven't we noticed them more?  About the only thing I've seen, and Boly has noted it too, is that Buster seems to be lower in his stance.  But is that everything?  And why would that -- and/or other changes -- have made such a huge difference in his hitting on fly balls?  Could this have anything to do with his knees (although I would think if his knees were less flexible, he's be HIGHER in his stance, not lower)?

Just what is going on here?

[klaiggeb]

The biggest mechanical thing I see, Rog... is that he crouches more.

Why, you might ask, is that an issue.

As the hitter comes OUT of the crouch, the eye level changes.

When the eye level changes where the hands THOUGHT the ball was going to be causes a distortion in perspective.

The instincts attempt to compensate, but at the velocity of most major league pitchers, hitters often swing just over, or under the ball.

When a hitter is young and fresh, it's easier for the muscles to compensate.

But with the wear and tear of being behind the plate, and just plain age... there is a massive NEED to simplify the swing; which most hitters do NOT do.

The ONLY hitter I EVER saw simplify his swing was Carl Yastremski.

Most are too stubborn to either see the change need, or even to recognize a change is needed.

They say: "This is what got me here. This is what will keep me here."

And for a while, that's true.

But when it comes to the swing, most hitters seem to FORGET the game is one of adjustments. And adjusting the swing is one of those adjustments.

boly

[sfgdood]

It has more to do with fatigue...thats why we need to move the oaf and put Buster at 1st base

[Rog]

It has more to do with fatigue...thats why we need to move the oaf and put Buster at 1st base


Rog -- Randy, Boly was trying to answer the question, which had to do with hitting mechanics. You now say the problem has more to do with fatigue than Buster's standing lower at the plate and possibly something else mechanical that we don't yet understand.

OK, what do we base this "fatigue" thing (which indeed is possible from a catcher) on? Buster's career numbers in the first half are almost identical to his numbers in the second half. Buster has hit clearly BETTER in July, August and September than he has in April, May and June. In fact, May and April have been his worst months, with July and June being his best. The evidence isn't there.

But let's suppose you are right, and Buster DOES wear down. Specifically what changes about his hitting mechanics as a result? Specifically. That was the question.

Thus far rather than answer it, you seem to have used it as yet another podium for your Belt bias. If I'm wrong about your Belt bias, I'm sorry. But this very thread seems just another example of it.

So let me ask ANOTHER question (and I hope you still answer the first as well). What is the evidence you could present us to show that you AREN'T biased against Belt?




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[sfgdood]

to me it's not mechanics that are the problem...it's bat speed. Pitches he was crushing in his first few years are now becoming lazy fly balls.

[klaiggeb]

I won't argue with the fatigue aspect, Randy. I agree with it.

But Roger's question dealt with mechanics, and I noticed early in the year that Buster was doing something different.

The season's results kind of speak for themselves.

boly

[Rog]

We actually talked about Buster's bending his knees more at the plate a couple of years ago IIRC. As for early this past year, Buster had a mediocre April, but two of his best hitting months came in May and June. He was also good in July and August, but he slumped badly in September (whereas the previous September he had been very hot).

There was talk about both a thumb injury and a back injury last season. Given how Buster's power almost disappeared, that talk may have validity.

As for fatigue, Buster's career numbers by month are reasonably consistent. And while he slumped badly this past September, he was very hot a year ago September. Buster did catch more last season. Was his September slump due to fatigue or injury? Or just part of a player's normal ups and downs?

Buster did wear down at the very end of 2015, although he was red hot earlier in the month.

Here is something that is disappointing about Buster's season. He fell back even though he had more at bats against southpaws last season. Buster is really just an above-averaqe hitter against right-handers. He feasts on lefties. That's what Willie Mays did too, but he did it at a higher level, and his splits weren't as disparate.

[Rog]

to me it's not mechanics that are the problem...it's bat speed. Pitches he was crushing in his first few years are now becoming lazy fly balls.


Rog -- So what is the reason for his decline in bat speed if it indeed exists?

Here is one feature of catchers that might help Buster in coming years. Catchers often improve their hitting in their early to mid 30's. The reason isn't known, but it may have to do with seeing the ball better because of all the time behind the plate, or possibly getting more of an intuitive notion of pitching patterns. Or building better rapport with umpires. Who knows why? But more than any other position, catchers hit better a little later in their careers.




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