Leap frog?

[Rog]

"Around the Foghorn" gives the Giants an A for the Mark Melancon move, but what I found most intriguing is that they say that with the Ian Desmond signing, if the Rockies were to go to sign say Greg Holland, they would leap frog the Rockies ahead of the Dodgers  "especially if Justin Turner and Kenley Janson don't return."  Rarely a bad thing to see someone feeling the Dodgers are declining.  It appears the Dodgers' spending cutback may be having an effect.

Of course, this topic isn't all coming up roses.  We don't know yet what the Dodgers will wind up doing via free agent signings and trades, and it isn't particularly good news to hear that the Rockies may be improving this much.  But again, it's rarely a bad thing to see someone expressing that the Dodgers may be declining.

[klaiggeb]

Rumor down here behind the "blue curtain," Rog is that Turner's not going anywhere.

Jansen is said to be weighing the 80/4 contract in Florida vs the 85/4 in LA.

Lack of taxes in Florida, BIG taxes here.

That 85 million becomes a LOT less than he'd get by signing in Florida.

The question HERE is, does he want to win badly, (stay with LA, take less net money), or get paid by going to Florida.

I hope he leaves, obviously.

boly

[Rog]

Think about if you were the Dodgers. They have a big debt problem and are trying hard to deal with the luxury tax threshold. But what they REALLY need to do is re-sign both Turner and Jansen, two of the very top free agents out there. Tough choices to be made.

They do have the luxury of a lot of prospects to trade for lower-priced players.

[klaiggeb]

Problem is how far they are OVER and how much of a penalty they'll have to pay to BE that far over the limit.

boly

[Rog]

I'm rooting for them to be as little over the limit as possible! If they were REALLY nice, they'd give some of that overage to the Giants to spend!

Randy makes a good point in that many if not most of the MLB teams just keep getting richer and richer. But while they are a very different kind of business, they're still businesses, so they usually compromise between unbridled spending and trying to be as competitive as possible while living within the set budget. It appears the Giants do have a little slush fund in their budget to allow them to make deadline trades and to occasionally stretch the budget to be able to avail themselves of a special opportunity, as I think they were prepared to do if they had been able to sign Jon Lester.

It would have been ironic had they advanced to game five with the Cubs, since it would have pitted the pitcher they DID get last winter against the pitcher they TRIED to get the previous winter. I like Cueto even better than Lester, but there is no denying that Jon has had a fine career, particularly with the Cubs.

I find it ironic too that the Giants get the most credit for spending money last winter, when it was mostly circumstance that allowed them to do so. While the Giants' had increased their payroll every season since 2008, they surprisingly saw their Opening Day payroll go DOWN by a million dollars last season. That did put them in better position to make deadline deals, and in Nunez, Moore and Smith, they got three pretty good ones. The nice thing about both Moore and Smith are that they are cost-controlled for each of the next three seasons. Moore is under contract, and while Smith's contract will rise, he will still be in arbitration the next three years.

In roughly a year now, the Giants have picked up the four (including Cueto) mentioned above, plus Samardzija, Span and Melancon. That's an improvement of more than a quarter of the roster, and each at important positions (from All-Star starting pitcher to closer and from center fielder to third baseman. That's a lot of improvement.

In Span and especially Nunez, the Giants added much-needed speed. They haven't been successful yet in adding power, unfortunately, but we know they're hoping to improve by about 20 homers per season. Posey, Pence and Belt might provide some of that with healthy and improved seasons, and the combination of Williamson and Parker should provide some too. It's more batting average that could be the problem with that duo.

When it comes to power, one thing to remember too is that while the Giants finished only 13th in the NL in homers, they were 2nd in triples and 6th in doubles. The Giants certainly aren't a powerhouse, but especially given the park they play in, they're a little more powerful than meets the eye.

Here is something to consider: The Giants did hit 28 fewer homers than their opponents, but they also hit 18 more doubles and 12 more triples. They actually had more extra base hits than they gave up. They also had 102 more singles. They scored 84 more runs.

The Dodgers scored 87 more runs than their opponents, so simply adding a closer could conceivably have put the Giants ahead of the Dodgers -- even if the Dodgers DON'T lose Turner and Jansen. Then again, the Dodgers will almost certainly have healthier pitching this season (as well as at other positions), and they have added a potential star in Julio Urias, who posted a 3.39 ERA and a 3.17 FIP despite a 1.46 WHIP that was fueled in part by a 3.6 walk rate per nine.

I'd say that while their winter wasn't as exciting as last year, the Giants are in stronger position now than a year ago.

[rxmeister]

Are those offers accurate, Boly? Even with the tax difference I would think Jansen would have signed with the Dodgers already if the offers were really that close. I heard the Marlins offer is more along the lines of the Chapman deal, which is why he hasn't signed yet. He's waiting for the Dodgers to make a better offer.

[Rog]

Most think the Giants are about done, but maybe an outfielder via free agency, trade or even waivers slips through the cracks. I'd love to see the Giants pick up a right-hand hitting center fielder to platoon with Denard Span.

Question: Will the Giants re-sign Eduardo Nunez? I realize there is a whole season to play, but what do we think the odds are?

[garyd4sf]

Jansen is being sought by the Nats and Miami but the former has more interest for Hanley than the latter, as they are closer to being competitors for a  title and better financed as well.

The Dodgers are in the position of being hit hard by salary penalties...perhaps more than $80 M from what I read.

They are peddling Puig for a pitcher but he is at the low point in his tradability.

And the upside of getting more money from a loyal fan base is limited in growth (near capacity in attendance now) and affordability.

[klaiggeb]

Mark ------Are those offers accurate, Boly? Even with the tax difference I would think Jansen would have signed with the Dodgers already if the offers were really that close. I heard the Marlins offer is more along the lines of the Chapman deal, which is why he hasn't signed yet. He's waiting for the Dodgers to make a better offer.

****boly says****

As near as I can tell, Mark, yes.

Those offers are what are being reported out here on the left coast on both the radio and newspapers.


For what that's worth.

boly