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Post by Rog on Nov 20, 2016 3:00:48 GMT -5
Here is my quick ranking of the top 11 players in the league based on their careers thus far and where they are likely headed:
1. Clayton Kershaw. No need to post more than we already have.
2. Mike Trout. In his five full seasons he has two MVP's and three seconds.
3. Miguel Cabrera. One of the greatest right-handed hitters of all time. Not much of a fielder, but at the plate he's essentially Roberto Clemente with a ton of power. Two MVP's, a 2nd, a 4th and three 5th's.
4. Albert Pujols. Great right-handed hitter who is still a big home run threat (591 career). Three MVP's, four seconds, a third, fourth and fifth.
5. Adrian Beltre. Outstanding fielder who will reach 3000 hits in 2017. 445 home runs. 1571 RBI's.
6. Buster Posey. One MVP. One Gold Glove. Two Wilson defensive awards.
7. Joey Votto. Counting totals limited by taking so many walks, but he ranks #12 all time in on-base percentage. One MVP, a third, two sixths and a seventh.
8. Madison Bumgarner. Very fine regular season pitcher who might be the best postseason pitcher ever.
9. Felix Hernandez. One Cy Young Award. Two seconds, a fourth, a seventh and an eighth. Needs to re-establish himself as one of the top pitchers.
10. Yadier Molina. Eight Gold Gloves and seven All-Star games. .285 career batting average to back it up.
The first six are clearly headed in a Hall of Fame directon.. The next four have a shot. There are a handful of players who could join the list but haven't had enough time to prove themselves. Notice that the Giants are the only team to have two of these top 10. Thoughts on the list? I keep feeling I've left some players out. David Ortiz, but he's retired now.
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 20, 2016 10:38:16 GMT -5
I'm sorry, Rog, but I can't put Posey in the top 10.
No how, no way.
Until he starts driving in close to 100 runs on a consistent basis, he's not even in my top 15.
And ranking him AHEAD of Votto, Molina, or Bum... I'm sorry, but from where I sit, not accurate.
boly
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Post by Rog on Nov 21, 2016 3:56:19 GMT -5
One point that weighs in here. I'm not talking about how I rate the players NOW (for instance, we see no Kris Bryant). I'm talking about how they've performed over their careers and how it is reasonable to think they might play over the rest of it. I thought about Bryant, but I kind of set five years of actual performance as the minimum.
As for Posey, as a hitter I think he's overrated. But he's also a catcher, and catchers just don't hit as well as other players. To have one batting cleanup, even on a team without a true cleanup hitter, is impressive. Now Buster is becoming a top defender as well career-wise the top hitter among the catchers.
Buster is considered the #1 framer in the game. I was extremely surprised and impressed that only one of the 33 batted balls he fielded this past season didn't result in an out. That's getting out in front and executing your footwork to turn toward first base. Having the fewest passed balls plus wild pitches of any catcher starting over 70 games when you yourself started 122? Fabulous. Being considered one of the best at calling games? Important.
As a hitter I don't rank Buster as highly as many do. He does some things very well. But he's not a great hitter. He is though a darn good hitter for a CATCHER. Couple that with what has become top-notch defense, and he's well down the path to Cooperstown.
As for ranking him ahead of Votto, I thought about that during the night and would probably reverse it. When I made my ranking, I thought of you, at least indirectly. Votto has only 730 RBI's after 9+ seasons. But there are extenuating factors, and I really shouldn't hold that against him.
On the other side of the coin though, there have been lots of great first basemen and not so many catchers.
As for ranking him ahead of Bumgarner and Molina, Madison's Hall of Fame case is based primarily on his postseason and Molina is kind of a cusp Hall of Famer. Madison has been really good in the regular season too, but he needs a lot more good seasons to get in based on his regular season performance. Molina has been a great defender, but his offense is pretty marginal for a Hall of Famer. He's still got a few seasons ahead of him, and he did bounce back with a .307 average this season.
Hernandez is an unusual case. He has been a great pitcher at times but has been a bit inconsistent and appears to me to be past his prime. He's only 30, but he has a lot of pitches on him. If he can rally back a bit in the right direction and have a long career, he's certainly got a shot. In a best-case scenario, he could even win approach 300 wins, which is a huge feat these days. He's got a decent shot at 250 wins, and if he can keep his 3.16 ERA from ballooning, that could be enough. At his best, Felix has been as good as any present-day pitcher aside from Kershaw, but he's dropped off to 3.53 and 3.82 ERA's the past two seasons.
I do think that a lot of the active players who will go on to become Hall of Famers are very new players to the league. They haven't played nearly long enough to make my list, but there are several who will make it, with Bryant being the leaders out of the gate. Mookie Betts is really, really good too. Bryce Harper has been a bit up and down, but he has as much potential as any of the young guys.
If you want to see a couple of positions that are evolving, check out the middle infielders of today.
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 21, 2016 11:36:25 GMT -5
We agree then, rog, about Posey.
Way over rated as a hitter.
boly
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Post by donk33 on Nov 21, 2016 12:38:01 GMT -5
We agree then, rog, about Posey. Way over rated as a hitter. boly dk...better hitter than a catcher....only not a 3,4 or 5 hitter...too many spells with no power... 2015, Posey had half as many framed strikes as Molina....and I only saw one that he got after the AS game...I still would like to see Posey catch a game without the pitcher shaking him off a high % of the time.....and by the way, the Fielders Bible rates Duvall as one of the top fielding left fielders...wow.... |
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 21, 2016 15:04:33 GMT -5
Yeah, Buster Posey sucks.
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 21, 2016 18:07:48 GMT -5
Don, I don't think any of us are going to agree with you about Posey's defensive work.
Since he came up in 2010... he's come LIGHT YEARS in his defense.
Yes, at times he still looks awkward.
Yes, at times, he doesn't frame the ball as well as he could have.
But the thing is, he's a good defensive catcher, with a + arm, quick feet and a quick release.
I believe he's over rated as a hitter, but as a defender? He can catch me any time.
boly
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Post by Rog on Nov 22, 2016 9:06:00 GMT -5
better hitter than a catcher....only not a 3,4 or 5 hitter.
Rog-- I guess you're not going to change your mind, Don, but would you mind addressing the defensive facts I presented regarding Buster? I think we all agree that Buster hits cleanup because of the Giants' need for a cleanup hitter, not that he's truly a cleanup hitter. But could you explain how a guy who hits within 10 points of Roberto Clemente, gets on base more than Roberto, and hits with more power than Roberto isn't a 3- or 5-hole hitter?
I'm having a hard time seeing how the best catcher in baseball isn't a middle of the order hitter and yet is a better hitter than catcher. Those facts and opinions just don't seem to fit together. Incidentally, Buster has a higher OPS than Johnny Bench. I need some help here to pair the facts with the opinions.
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Post by Rog on Nov 22, 2016 9:08:12 GMT -5
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Post by Rog on Nov 22, 2016 9:16:07 GMT -5
Hey, Don. You've already received your Bill James Annual, and I'm just getting around to ordering mine. Could you let us know how the various Giants players finished in the defensive voting and how they fared in base running? Thanks.
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 23, 2016 11:20:35 GMT -5
Rog- I'm having a hard time seeing how the best catcher in baseball isn't a middle of the order hitter and yet is a better hitter than catcher.
Boagie- I believe what Don was trying to say, if I'm correct, was that Buster is a better hitter than a typical catcher, but he's not a typical 3-4-5 hitter, which I somewhat agree with. He doesn't put up big numbers, but what Don and others seem to ignore is where Posey plays half of his games, and many of his divisional road games. If you threw Posey in the central or east he'd put up bigger numbers.
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 23, 2016 15:19:37 GMT -5
No question, boagie, he would put up better numbers.
Our park turns HRs into outs way too often.
He's NOT a power guy who's going to whack 30+ into the stands.
20 ish, I see, as his number.
But he MUST drive in more runs than he's been doing to make me happy.
boly
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Post by donk33 on Nov 23, 2016 22:57:55 GMT -5
but, per Rog, the phone booth is rated a hitters park for 2016...I guess they moved the fences in, eliminated the wind and warmed up the place....
I don't buy the James book, I read it in the book store....
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Post by Rog on Nov 25, 2016 3:04:48 GMT -5
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sfgdood
Long time member 
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Nov 25, 2016 12:14:11 GMT -5
Gee what a shock...another stats geek post telling us how much better Kershaw is than anybody else. We get it already Dodger Roger...change the broken record
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Post by donk33 on Nov 25, 2016 13:58:13 GMT -5
but, per Rog, the phone booth is rated a hitters park for 2016...I guess they moved the fences in, eliminated the wind and warmed up the place. Rog -- You're plenty smart enough to know that park conditions change day to day and year to year. dk...if the park changes from year to year than why use a park factor to predict when you don't know what the next years park factor will be?  ?? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3605/greatest-players-game-today#ixzz4R0PbkYUe |
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Post by Rog on Nov 25, 2016 20:31:56 GMT -5
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Post by Rog on Nov 25, 2016 20:33:39 GMT -5
You might want to read everything rather than focus merely on what you want to, Randy. I may be a broken record, but you're the one who keeps playing it over and over.
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Post by Rog on Dec 11, 2016 12:32:59 GMT -5
Gee what a shock...another stats geek post telling us how much better Kershaw is than anybody else. Rog -- Kershaw IS better than anyone else. But Mike Trout isn't far behind. In his first five full seasons, Trout has two MVP's and three seconds. He's NEVER finished below #2. There must have been someone along the line, but I can't remember ANY player with a career OPS of .963 after his first five seasons. Assuming they can keep it up, both Kershaw and Trout aren't just great players; they all-timers. Hey, I did find a guy with a better OPS over his first five full seasons than Trout -- Mickey Mantle. Mickey was a great, great player who is likely underrated even today. The guy I'm looking forward to seeing this season to see if he can make a comeback is Bryce Harper. Bryce had a season for the ages in 2015 but was just good last season. I think the most intriguing Giant to watch this season will be Joe Panik. I think he'll have quite a bounce back season. The Giants are very unlikely to do so, but I think they could do worse than having him lead off. Good base runner who gets on base. What is far more likely to happen is that he'll regain his #2 spot in the order. Although I'd be tempted to play Jarrett Parker some against right-handers, the Giants will have a much more balanced lineup wdth Mac Williamson. That's another reason too to pick up a right-hand hitting center fielder to platoon with Denard Span. The primary reasons the Giants' split of .708 against southpaws and .737 against righties wasn't greater is that the two Brandons and Panik hit lefties pretty well, and Buster Posey pounds them. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3605/greatest-players-game-today#ixzz4SYCEJgCZ |
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Post by Rog on Dec 11, 2016 12:35:45 GMT -5
Here's something that is a little shocking. Buster Posey had only a .752 OPS against right-handers last season. His .899 OPS against southpaws was still excellent.
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