Post by Rog on Oct 19, 2016 2:19:00 GMT -5
If the Giants had a good closer, they would have gone to game 5 with the Cubs -- and who knows how far beyond that? It would be an overstatement, but one could make the statement that the Giants' not having a closer cost them another even year World Series championship.
So why didn't they get a closer at the deadline?
Before we get to that, let's look at what they DID do in the past year. They added three starting pitchers, one of whom was a #1 starter (although with Madison Bumgarner, not on the Giants) and two guys who were capable #3's. They added a starting-caliber center fielder. And two third basemen, one of whom was leading the American League in steals when he was traded. And a set up man who is considered by some to have closer potential.
But still, no closer at the deadline -- and it proved fatal. So why not?
Aroldis Chapman was very expensive, and he was a one-year rental. Mark Melancon was the guy the Giants are sorry they missed out on. He was less expensive, although he too was a lame duck. Still, with 20/20 hindsight, Bobby Evans wishes the Giants had gone harder after Melancon. He felt he made as good an offer for Melancon as the Nationals did, but Pittsburgh disagreed. With 20/20 hindsight, Bobby would have sweetened the offer.
The ideal guy to have gotten may have been Andrew Miller, who had successfully closed to begin he year before being replaced by Chapman, and still has two years left on his contract. But the Giants didn't have the prospects to get him. Cleveland yielded two top 100 prospects, and some scouts don't think the Giants even have more than one (Christian Arroyo).
Here is another fact that we may have overlooked. Looking backward, we know the Giants absolutely, positively needed a closer. But at the trade deadline, Santiago Casilla, while struggling at times, had 24 saves in 29 opportunities. That's one or two fewer than one would have expected from Robb Nen, but at that point things weren't disastrous.
Even more deceptive, Casilla was riding a streak of 10 saves, two holds and only one blown save over the most recent month and a half. In other words, the hole appeared much smaller than it turned out to be.
Perhaps the Giants should have leaned more heavily on Will Smith, the potential closer. Smith gave up no runs and only a single handful of hits after August 20th. The southpaw can pitch to right-handed hitters too, limiting right-handed hitters to just .197, a lower average than lefties at .229.
While they themselves admit they should have gone harder after Melancon, the hand they were holding appeared stronger than it turned out to be. They didn't have the cards to trade to upgrade their hand with a top closer. Perhaps Bruce Bochy didn't fully understand what he had in Smith, who might have been a possible solution. Smith didn't help his cause by starting off slowly after the trade.
The Giants have now stated that their top priority this off-season is a closer. Mark Melancon is said to be their top target. Chapman and Kenley Jansen will likely be obscenely expensive, although I think the Giants will at least kick the tires.
Next season they'll have a new closer. And he'll likely be one of the best.
Too bad they didn't have one a week ago. But if one looks closely, it's tough to be too hard on a front office that picked up six key players and their surprise postseason star in less than a year. And one can see both why they didn't fully see the urgency and didn't have the tools to get what they truly wanted.
Those factors won't be overcomable this winter. They'll get a new closer. Throw in Smith, George Kontos and a handful of young guys, and the Giants' bullpen may be the most improved in the league next season. Wouldn't that be nice? Odd years could be fun too.
So why didn't they get a closer at the deadline?
Before we get to that, let's look at what they DID do in the past year. They added three starting pitchers, one of whom was a #1 starter (although with Madison Bumgarner, not on the Giants) and two guys who were capable #3's. They added a starting-caliber center fielder. And two third basemen, one of whom was leading the American League in steals when he was traded. And a set up man who is considered by some to have closer potential.
But still, no closer at the deadline -- and it proved fatal. So why not?
Aroldis Chapman was very expensive, and he was a one-year rental. Mark Melancon was the guy the Giants are sorry they missed out on. He was less expensive, although he too was a lame duck. Still, with 20/20 hindsight, Bobby Evans wishes the Giants had gone harder after Melancon. He felt he made as good an offer for Melancon as the Nationals did, but Pittsburgh disagreed. With 20/20 hindsight, Bobby would have sweetened the offer.
The ideal guy to have gotten may have been Andrew Miller, who had successfully closed to begin he year before being replaced by Chapman, and still has two years left on his contract. But the Giants didn't have the prospects to get him. Cleveland yielded two top 100 prospects, and some scouts don't think the Giants even have more than one (Christian Arroyo).
Here is another fact that we may have overlooked. Looking backward, we know the Giants absolutely, positively needed a closer. But at the trade deadline, Santiago Casilla, while struggling at times, had 24 saves in 29 opportunities. That's one or two fewer than one would have expected from Robb Nen, but at that point things weren't disastrous.
Even more deceptive, Casilla was riding a streak of 10 saves, two holds and only one blown save over the most recent month and a half. In other words, the hole appeared much smaller than it turned out to be.
Perhaps the Giants should have leaned more heavily on Will Smith, the potential closer. Smith gave up no runs and only a single handful of hits after August 20th. The southpaw can pitch to right-handed hitters too, limiting right-handed hitters to just .197, a lower average than lefties at .229.
While they themselves admit they should have gone harder after Melancon, the hand they were holding appeared stronger than it turned out to be. They didn't have the cards to trade to upgrade their hand with a top closer. Perhaps Bruce Bochy didn't fully understand what he had in Smith, who might have been a possible solution. Smith didn't help his cause by starting off slowly after the trade.
The Giants have now stated that their top priority this off-season is a closer. Mark Melancon is said to be their top target. Chapman and Kenley Jansen will likely be obscenely expensive, although I think the Giants will at least kick the tires.
Next season they'll have a new closer. And he'll likely be one of the best.
Too bad they didn't have one a week ago. But if one looks closely, it's tough to be too hard on a front office that picked up six key players and their surprise postseason star in less than a year. And one can see both why they didn't fully see the urgency and didn't have the tools to get what they truly wanted.
Those factors won't be overcomable this winter. They'll get a new closer. Throw in Smith, George Kontos and a handful of young guys, and the Giants' bullpen may be the most improved in the league next season. Wouldn't that be nice? Odd years could be fun too.