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Post by Rog on Sept 13, 2016 12:35:51 GMT -5
Let's take a look at a few things about Brandon Belt's season:
. He's 6th in the majors in walks. He gets on base a lot and doesn't make a lot of outs. What that means: Good hitter in the top third of the lineup, getting on base for the middle of the order to drive in.
. He's second on the Giants in RBI's, which makes him good for the #3 spot in the order when coupled with his ability to reach base.
. He's 17th in the majors in doubles. No, he doesn't hit a lot of home runs, but he has strong gap power, which can move runners up multiple bases.
. He's rated one of the best fielding first basemen and is likely among the Giants' top three fielders. As a tall first baseman who can dig the ball out of the dirt well, he saves a lot of errors for the Giants' infielders.
. We used to complain that he doesn't drive in runs, but he's hit well this season with RISP and very well with runners on. His weakness has been hitting with the bases empty, but even then he's gotten on base at a very nice rate.
. We're complaining that he's streaky, but isn't that actually a bit of a benefit, in that when he's in a slump, the Giants can play someone else, at least against left-handed pitching? Not that he was taken out of the lineup, but no one complained that Willie Mays was a notorious streak hitter.
. Brandon's 3.8 WAR is right up there with Buster Posey's 4.1 and Brandon Crawford's 3.9 among Giants hitters. Hunter Pence is the next closest with 1.9 WAR, or half as many as Belt's. In other words, Brandon is one of the Giants' top hitters. In another thread, we've talked about the value of Jeff Samardzija in the rotation. Jeff's WAR is also half of Brandon's. If Belt left, he would be missed.
. That's why the Giants rewarded him with a nice, if team friendly, contract. Brandon has responded with his best season, already setting career records in RBI's, doubles, triples, sacrifice flies and walks. He may also equal or break his season records in at bats, runs, hits, home runs and intentional walks. In other words, he's thus far has his best season as a Giant -- right after signing a long-term contract, which might assuage any worries that the "big" contract would hurt his motivation.
If the Giants are going to trade him, perhaps this is the time. Coming off his best season and with cost certainty over the next five seasons, Brandon's value would be high. But what can the Giants get for him, and how do they replace him? Aside from the suggestion that the Giants move Buster Posey to first base, which is highly unlikely to happen at this time, no one has come up with any concrete ideas on either.
In fact, we've received vagueness on why he should be traded (bad body language? inconsistency? really?), as well as for whom and who would replace him. The reasons seem as vague as the benefit and the plan to replace him.
If the Giants got rid of Brandon and of Santiago Casilla, would all their problems be solved? Just like that? Santiago will likely be gone. Brandon very likely won't. Both for good reason.
The Giants need a new closer. They don't need a new first baseman. Their closer ranks in the third quartile at best. Their first baseman ranks in the second quartile. Add second quartile players to a few stars, and one can build a good team.
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 13, 2016 20:01:57 GMT -5
I'm not questioning whether he's a good 1Bman or not, Rog. He is.
You can throw all the numbers at me that you like, but I'm saying what I said from my first post: I'm UNWILLING to put up with his inconsistencies any longer.
That's it in a nutshell, and if I'm the GM, syonara.
boly
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Post by Rog on Sept 14, 2016 3:08:50 GMT -5
You can throw all the numbers at me that you like, but I'm saying what I said from my first post: I'm UNWILLING to put up with his inconsistencies any longer. Rog -- Here is the problem with that logic. While you are blaming Brandon first and foremost for the Giants' second-half failures, he's been right in the middle of the lineup with regards to overall hitting and has been their BEST with runners on and in scoring position, leading to his having the team lead in second half RBI's. It blows my mind that we can look at those facts and still make Brandon our scapegoat. By saying that I can throw up all the numbers I want (and we won't consider them), aren't we saying our mind is closed? One can agree or disagree with me, but one thing I am proud of is that my mind is almost never closed. Some have said it is open at both ends when it should be open at only one! Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3489/assessing-brandon-belts-season#ixzz4KDPYchX6 |
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 14, 2016 12:37:29 GMT -5
When it comes to Belt, Rog, I've listened, watched (for years now), and evaluated my position.
My mind is made up.
If I'm the GM... he's gone.
boly
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Post by Islandboagie on Sept 14, 2016 13:50:13 GMT -5
That's a bold statement, Boly. I'm not always 100% satisfied with Belt's production, or contributions to the Giants. But to say you just want him gone?
It reminds me of when you wanted Pagan gone a few years ago, or Affeldt gone a few years ago, or Lopez gone last season. The alternative isn't always better. In fact in a lot of instances it's significantly worse. The disgusting display of the bullpen last night and Pagan being perhaps our best hitter since the All-Star break would certainly prove that point.
I never wanted Belt gone, but I did want other possible first baseman coming through our system to get at least a chance at stealing the starting role, Brett Pill and Adam Duvall to name a few.
The team we have now is essentially the team you and Randy have been asking for. Why are you both so unhappy about it?
To just want a player gone shows very little consideration about the future, and as we know, that has burned you in the past.
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Post by Rog on Sept 14, 2016 19:07:01 GMT -5
When it comes to Belt, Rog, I've listened, watched (for years now), and evaluated my position. My mind is made up. If I'm the GM... he's gone. Rog -- If I'm the GM, even if I agree with you, I'm going to keep an open mind to see if my opinion of him changes these final 2 1/2 weeks, to double check my opinion against those of others, and to see what Brandon will bring on the trade market and how I can replace him. In other words, if I'm the GM and feel the way you do, he may well be gone -- but I just don't have enough information yet to know for sure. I know you're not a fan of fantasy baseball, Boly, but those of us who do play are both GM and field manager. One the game starts, we make no decisions, but as GM we decide whom to draft, whom to trade, whom to waive, and whom to pick up as free agents. As the manager, we determine our daily lineup of players. As GM I've had to make hard decisions on whether to release or trade players. The worst decision I made came a year ago when I cut Robinson Cano after his very slow start -- only to have him take off the very next day. If I had waited even one more day, I would have kept Cano -- and helped my team out a lot. On the other hand, within the past week I cut Buster Posey, who had been my second draft pick. Certainly I could regret cutting Buster right as we entered our fantasy playoffs, but I just don't see him bouncing back this season to hit a lot of homers, score runs and accumulate a lot of RBI's. I'm going with the Yankees' Gary Sanchez, a player I was wise enough to grab as he got off to one of the top starts in major league history. I was keeping both to make sure I had a good catcher for the playoffs (and Buster can play first base or "DH"S), but ultimately I felt I had to choose so I could create a roster spot I might use in a better way. My point is that you've made up your mind on Brandon Belt before you need to. If you were the GM, you might easily trade Brandon for too little, and also fail to properly replace him. As I was with Robinson Cano, you might well be too hasty. My misjudgment was that I didn't think Robinson would improve enough or quickly enough to help me more than someone I could replace him with. I think that to begin with, you're misjudging Brandon, but even if you aren't, why be so hasty in your judgment. You said "he's gone," when if you were GM you just don't know enough to be sure of that and could back yourself into a corner. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3489/assessing-brandon-belts-season#ixzz4KHHPxH3z |
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 15, 2016 12:21:18 GMT -5
Posey is an entirely different scenario.
Buster does NOT have a history of inconsistency.
Up until this season, he's been very dependable, even though he's NEVER performed at the level he should be.
Belt's history is one of CONSTANT huge ups and downs.
And I can't live with that anymore.
boly
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Post by Rog on Sept 15, 2016 13:07:45 GMT -5
he's NEVER performed at the level he should be. Rog -- I think Buster performed at the level he should be in 2012 when he won the MVP Award. That season he did have the advantage of batting .394 on fly balls, which we discussed at the time was an unreal number which showed his batting average would surely decline in the future. And just as his batting average had risen from .305 and .284 his first two seasons to a league leading .336 in 2012, it has since fallen to .294, .311, .318 and .285. Buster's career average on fly balls is .250, meaning he has batted about .220 on fly balls aside from the 2012 season. When Buster hit .394 on fly balls in 2012, that was more unusual than hitting .394 over a full season. But in 2012, Buster did have, as we stated at the time was likely, a career year. That season he performed at the level he should, and that season he built his reputation as one of the top players in the game. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3489/assessing-brandon-belts-season#ixzz4KLfjFj7D |
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Post by Rog on Sept 15, 2016 13:18:42 GMT -5
Belt's history is one of CONSTANT huge ups and downs. And I can't live with that anymore. Rog -- A properly built and managed team can be built around up and down guys. Just get them a backup -- preferably hitting with the opposite hand -- and when the hot and cold guy goes cold, bench him and play the other guy, or at least play the other much more than otherwise. In other words, take advantage of a guy's hot streaks and minimize his cold ones. Brandon has a career OPS of .813. If he is extremely up and down, he's REALLY hot when he's hot. A good manager can take advantage of that and minimize the impact of his down times. This season, by the way, Brandon has been less up and down than most of his seasons -- which is one of the reasons he's having a career year. Part of the reason for that may be that he's been healthier than in most seasons. I find it odd that we're wanting to trade him based on problems he's improved on. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3489/assessing-brandon-belts-season?page=1#ixzz4KLjkoiko |
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Post by Rog on Sept 15, 2016 13:19:53 GMT -5
By the way, did we know that even the best players don't come through in most big at bats?
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 15, 2016 13:25:27 GMT -5
I know the best players don't always come through.
That's a fact.
But... CONSIDERING the number of OPPORTUNITIES he's had, he's stunk up the world with what he's NOT done.
Posey is right there with him, too.
boly
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Post by Rog on Sept 15, 2016 19:53:02 GMT -5
CONSIDERING the number of OPPORTUNITIES he's had, he's stunk up the world with what he's NOT done. Rog -- As I have shown, Brandon has done pretty well with his chances with runners on and in scoring position -- in each half. Please show me a Giant who has done as well with men on and in scoring position in the second half as Brandon has done. I'll check Hunter Pence. I don't think anyone else is close. Again, Brandon has been bad with the bases empty in the second half (and just so-so with the bases empty on the season), but he was a good hitter with runners on and in scoring position in the first half, and may be the only Giant to continue that in the second. Looking it up, Hunter's hot streak of late has brought him close to Brandon in the second half. Hunter is hitting .308 with a .461 SLG with RISP (compared to Brandon's .297 with a .516 SLG), and is hitting .306 with a .417 SLG with runners on base (compared to Belt's .287 with a .465 SLG). My guess is that those two are the only Giants hitters who have hit well in the second half with runners on base and scoring position. So again, why is it we're picking on Brandon? Certainly it isn't because he's stunk up the joint with the opportunities he's had with runners on base in the second half. We could pick on just about every other Giants hitter, but picking on Brandon is way off base. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3489/assessing-brandon-belts-season#ixzz4KNHp1d2U |
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 15, 2016 20:42:37 GMT -5
Part of the reason my anger is directed at Belt is multi fold.
1-The memory of him flailing away after the break, killing as many rallies with those K's as 6-4-3 Posey does with ground balls.
2-His mental lapses, instead of getting better, have simply morfed into different, and plentiful mental baseball farts.
Kind of like Strickland FORGETTING to cover 1B the other day.
3-His incredibly long cold streaks.
Those are my top 3 reasons.
boly
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