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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 3, 2016 17:52:23 GMT -5
It's not going to happen, but if I'M BOCHY... against RHP right now, I'm using Gillaspie at 1B, or Adrianza, or Tomlinson... anyone NOT named Belt.
How many fat fastballs DO you have to swing through before you get benched?
I admire Bochy's patience, giving a player every opportunity to get it worked out... but let's be honest, Belt has had a couple hundred at bats to "work it out."
And he hasn't.
I don't think we have much of a chance, but still, you never know.
And with that in mind, you have to run out the 8 players that give you the best chance to win.
Belt can't be one of those 8.
boly
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Post by Rog on Sept 5, 2016 14:14:45 GMT -5
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 6, 2016 13:30:21 GMT -5
Belt is healthy, rog.
He has zero excuses for what he's done to this club.
boly
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Post by Rog on Sept 6, 2016 20:34:15 GMT -5
Belt is healthy, rog. He has zero excuses for what he's done to this club. Rog -- Yeah, that .267/.841 has just killed them this season. As has his .276/.813 with RISP and especially his .303/.908 with runners on. .267/.841 is good, as is .276/.813 with RISP. .303/.908 with runners on is very good to excellent. If all the Giants' hitters had killed the Giants as Brandon has, imagine where they'd be. Think about it, and I think you'll wish for eight Brandon's. You are right that there are zero excuses for what he's done to this club. And clearly he doesn't need any. Not to say he couldn 't be better. But we may be letting specific memories overpower what Brandon has actually done with RISP and runners on base. He's done better than we're giving him credit for. Do we think .276/.813 with RISP is bad, let alone horrible? Clearly it isn't. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3474/time-change#ixzz4JWqmvAxF
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 7, 2016 9:44:46 GMT -5
Again, rog, you're only looking at "over all numbers."
What has Belt done in the 2nd half?
What is he hitting in the 2nd half with RISP?
boly
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Post by Rog on Sept 8, 2016 9:11:04 GMT -5
Again, rog, you're only looking at "over all numbers." What has Belt done in the 2nd half? What is he hitting in the 2nd half with RISP? Rog -- No question Brandon has had a tough second half, but he's been good with RISP. He's hitting .283 with a .509 SLG with RISP in the second half. He's tied for the team lead in RBI's. If we look at his last 48 at bats with RISP in the second half, he's hitting .333 with a .604 SLG. We're picking on the wrong guy. I think this not only supports my point about wrongfully picking on Brandon (who likely as been the BEST Giant with RISP in the second half), it also supports my point that our memories are, euphemistically, short. My point isn't "I told you so." My point is that our memory plays tricks. And focusing only on RBI's is foolish. Brandon Belt hasn't had a good second half. But unlike his teammates, he's been good with RISP. We're picking on the wrong guy. Perhaps Randy isn't the only one who is being unfair to Brandon. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3474/time-change#ixzz4JfiLA0NH
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Post by Rog on Sept 8, 2016 9:13:45 GMT -5
Belt can't be one of the eight players who give the Giants the best chance to win? Seriously? We may know what we SAW, but obviously we didn't see it very clearly.
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 8, 2016 10:18:40 GMT -5
Roger, you can't be serious!
Belt has been stuck on 60+ RBIS for the better part of a month now!
How can HE be the best hitter with RISP?
boly
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Post by Rog on Sept 8, 2016 13:25:51 GMT -5
Roger, you can't be serious! Belt has been stuck on 60+ RBIS for the better part of a month now! How can HE be the best hitter with RISP? Rog -- Because he has been. If you don't believe me, look it up. Given how tough his second half has been, I was surprised as well. Essentially, Brandon's second-half failures have come much more without runners in scoring position than with. You are correct that Brandon has been stuck on 60+ RBI's for the better part of a month -- since August 13th to be exact. But think about it for a moment. The Giants' biggest problem in the second half, along with not holding a lead, has been scoring runs, right? Wouldn't that tend to indicate they would have fewer runners on base than usual -- resulting in fewer RBI opportunities? Sometimes our memories or a full understanding of the circumstances can escape us, causing us to reach faulty conclusions. Clearly that has been the case with Belt. Since the beginning of August, he's been really good with RISP. He simply hasn't had all that many plate appearances with RISP. Not that he's been the absolute greatest, but we've done Brandon a great disservice here. We've said he has deserved the nickname "The Big Oaf," but it appears we have been the clumsy ones here. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3474/time-change#ixzz4Jgiekzuw
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 9, 2016 11:40:29 GMT -5
Well if he's the best, Rog, that's pretty sad.
Small wonder why Mark called the team Inept.
boly
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Post by Rog on Sept 9, 2016 14:35:05 GMT -5
Let's just get down to brass tacks with Brandon:
. I think we all agree he's a very good first baseman.
. And that he's an average base runner at best.
, He's a good -- not great -- hitter for a first baseman. His average is .269 compared to .267 for NL first basemen. Average. OBP .385 compared to .347 league. Very good. SLG .467 compared to .461. Average, although considering his home park is AT&T, good. OPS .851 compared to .810 league. Good to very good. Anyone who says he isn't a good overall hitter is ignoring a large set of facts.
. He's been good with RISP (,287..377/.467/.843) -- average to above average for a first baseman. With runners on he's been very good at .310/.410/.520/.931. So he's been a good hitter with ducks on the pond, even for a first baseman.
If we look at the pieces, we could criticize him for base running (although that is the case with most first basemen), but in all other areas he's pretty good.
Seriously, if we want to build an argument against Brandon, we've got to come up with some new facts, and personally I can't think of any. Either make a strong case or admit the facts say Brandon is a good first baseman. A good hitter who has been even better with RISP and especially with runners on. He's a very good defensive first baseman.
On what criterion are we saying he's less than good? Seriously, guys, come up with something concrete or just admit that while Brandon isn't a big star or anything, he's at least a good first baseman. Yeah, I know we would like more RBI's, but his numbers with RISP and especially runners on this season show that his low RBI total has come primarily from a lack of opportunity.
Think I'm crazy about that? Last season Joey Votto hit well enough with runners on and in scoring position that he placed third in the MVP voting. Yet he drove in only 80 runs -- about the total Brandon is on pace for this season -- despite 35 home runs. 35 home runs! Buster is on pace for about half that many -- and yet will likely have about as many RBI's as last year's third-place MVP.
If we're going to criticize Brandon's hitting, it would be with no one one, where he's hit only .233. But even there, the primary goal with the bases empty is to get on base, and Brandon has a .363 OBP with no one on.
The facts just don't support criticizing Belt this season. Can we please point some facts out or just get off his case? Thus far we're making ourselves look more like big oafs than he is.
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Post by Rog on Sept 9, 2016 14:39:17 GMT -5
On this note, it often amuses me that we'll criticize a player and say the Giants need to trade him, blindly assuming that if we're right in our assessment of the player other teams will overpay for him. I know what P.T. Barnum said, but he was talking about the entire population, not simply the major league GM's.
Are we saying that we're smart and others are dumb, and we don't even have to back that harsh opinion up with facts? I personally think this board is pretty smart, but IMO it doesn't always act nearly as smart as it is.
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 9, 2016 15:04:48 GMT -5
I think Randy's saying we were dumb to pay him what we paid him.
And with his power upside?
A team in a band-box like Cincinnati or Milwaukee would jump hoops to get a guy like Belt.
If I'm management, I'm so sick up and fed of his nonsense, moving him is an incredibly smart thing for us to do.
For ME... He's gone at the end of this season.
That's gone!
G...O...N...E!
Adios!
Aufwiedersehn.
Kaput!
Termindado.
On a rocket ship to Mars.
Shipped out.
Flushed out.
Handed his papers.
Excreted
Shown the door.
Erased.
Sent packing.
As the GM I simply would NOT live with him for even one more season.
boly
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Post by Rog on Sept 9, 2016 18:39:39 GMT -5
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Post by Rog on Sept 9, 2016 18:46:47 GMT -5
And with his power upside? A team in a band-box like Cincinnati or Milwaukee would jump hoops to get a guy like Belt. Rog -- I agree that Brandon's value would come out best in a park built for lefty power hitters (which is close to the opposite of AT&T). But can you imagine how much it would cost if the Giants were to try to sign a lefty-hitting first baseman of Brandon's caliber on the open market? Mucho, much dinero. You have come up with a good point here. Perhaps trading Brandon to a power-hitting park for say a starting pitcher would give the Giants value in a trade. But it might also be very expensive to replace Brandon with a hitter as good as he, let alone one who is better. And with regard to pitching, the Giants are already spending a ton on the rotation, and pitchers would be the easiest commodity for them to sign on the open market, since those pitchers should love to pitch at AT&T. If Chris Shaw develops into a starting-caliber player, that might be the time to trade Brandon, since Shaw will come cheaply for at least six seasons. But right now Shaw is an unknown, and even if he hits as well as Belt, the Giants would give up quite a bit of defense, and we know how you like your defense. Brandon Crawford might be the best defensive infielder in the league, but think how many errors Belt has saved him. More than would be the case with most first basemen. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3474/time-change#ixzz4JnyryCST
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Post by Rog on Sept 9, 2016 18:54:05 GMT -5
I have a question for Boly, Randy and any others who want to chip in. Which first basemen would you trade Belt for? I'll start with the obvious -- Paul Goldschmidt -- but there are certainly others. Anthony Rizzo is another no-brainer. Whom else would we add to the list?
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Post by Rog on Sept 9, 2016 18:55:58 GMT -5
By the way, anyone actually got a strong argument against Belt this season to express? Even in the second half, he's been good with RISP and runners on -- which isn't something many if any other Giants can say.
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 9, 2016 20:08:23 GMT -5
Rog:
I never said I'd trade Belt FOR a 1B man.
I said I'd move his ass faster than you can blink.
I said he'd NEVER wear a Giant uniform again.
Ever.
I truely believe we can get one through FA, and failing that, I'd give Tomlinson, Parker, and Posey a good long look there in the interim.
Now IF we had to go "in house," we'd indeed, be rolling the dice, but to move Belt, I'd do it.
FOR Belt I'd want an outfielder.
And IF... IF I went with Posey, I'd be fine with Brown handling the catching.
But the thing is, I'd bet money, and I NEVER bet money, that we could come up with a 1Bman in FA.
With Belt's salary gone, with Casilla's, and Lopez's gone, too, we'd have the money.
We HAVE the starting pitching in place, but IMHO, we MUST cut the dead weight.
And that dead weight is Belt.
boly
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Post by Rog on Sept 10, 2016 2:11:32 GMT -5
But the thing is, I'd bet money, and I NEVER bet money, that we could come up with a 1Bman in FA. With Belt's salary gone, with Casilla's, and Lopez's gone, too, we'd have the money. Rog -- Who would that free agent first baseman be? About the only one I know of would be Edwin Encarnacion, who will get a ton of money for several seasons, including some in which he'll be WELL past his prime. Encarnacion would tie up the payroll for quite a while, although in the early years of his contract he might be worth the money. Mark Trumbo might fit the bill, although he too will get a ton of money. The problem with giving Belt's money, Casilla's money and Lopez's money to one player is that it may not leave enough for the other positions. If we're going to say trade Belt, we need to have a plan on how to replace him within the salary structure. I'll give an example of a player I WOULD trade Brandon for: Julio Tehran. Tehran is locked up through 2020 for another $37.3 million. I'd be all over that one. But should the Braves decide to deal Tehran, they'll get the proverbial king's ransom for him, likely headlined by two top prospects with more prospects to accompany them. They're looking to rebuild, so they wouldn't likely be interested in Brandon -- especially with Freddie Freeman already entrenched at first. But if I COULD get Tehran, his team-friendly contract would indeed give me money to replace Brandon and perhaps still get a closer and a left fielder. But I'd have to think in order to come up with a plan that would have more chance of working, and without a plan, talking about trading Brandon is really a moot point -- regardless of how good we think he is. You say you would trade Brandon. I too would trade him -- if I could make the team better. That would take some doing, and I'd have to work hard to come up with a reasonable plan. So come up with ideas Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3474/time-change#ixzz4JpkCtrIn
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Post by Rog on Sept 10, 2016 2:18:27 GMT -5
Other names to consider on the free agent market would be Mitch Moreland, Brandon Moss and Mike Napoli. Just saying to trade Brandon without having a plan though is foolishness. Remember too that if the Giants acquire a power hitter to play first base, that player's power would be challenged just as Brandon's is -- especially if the hitter is a left-handed batter, which most first basemen are.
Tonight Brandon continued to improve his hitting with RISP and runners on base. He also reached base four times, although I haven't yet seen the end of the game.
Ask a reasonable guy like Mark or Moo what he thinks of Belt, and I suspect you'll get a much higher opinion than the board as a whole.
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 10, 2016 10:34:03 GMT -5
Roger, again, you misunderstand.
I'm moving him, but I'm NOT stupid.
I don't trade him for a pepperoni pizza and a six pack.
I want a LF or C in return, and I'm choosy about just whom.
If I get a decent catcher, I move Posey to 1B... Posey and his 285+ BA and ridiculous 12 HRs and 66 RBIS..
Not my first choice because at THIS POINT in his sliding career, all Posey is, is an adequate catcher.
I mean, for Heaven's sake! Wellington Casilla has better numbers! Or at least equal numbers!
And Posey is out "best hitter?"
Posey and Belt are THE TWO BIGGEST REASONS this club is where it's at.
There are many, many reasons, but those two, second half failures top the list, along with Cough-it-up Casilla.
None of us know who's available in FA
None of us know who's available for a trade.
But we CAN do better, and if not much better than I could and WOULD find someone more consistent.
boly
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Post by Rog on Sept 10, 2016 22:39:54 GMT -5
I never said I'd trade Belt FOR a 1B man. I said I'd move his ass faster than you can blink. Rog -- Sorry I didn't make myself more clear. I realize you weren't planning to trade Brandon for another first baseman. What I was tyring to ascertain was which first basemen would be better to have than Brandon. I realize your idea was to get a first baseman via free agency (I listed the possibilities) or to move Buster there (which is so highly unlikely to happen that it probably isn't worth discussing). You say Brandon is overpaid, but I'm curious as to which first basemen we would rather have, dollar for dollar. I mentioned two no-brainers in Goldschmidt and Rizzo. There are others, and I would be intrigued if we could build a list. You know, get an idea of what we're talking about here. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3474/time-change#ixzz4JumBWUVu
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Post by Rog on Sept 10, 2016 22:46:09 GMT -5
I want a LF or C in return, and I'm choosy about just whom. Rog -- OK. Whom would you take in return? Here's the issue the way you've stated it: You'd be choosy, and yet the Giants would be trading a player you think is an albatross. Either Brandon isn't an albatross after all (which is indeed the case IMO), or with his "overprice salary," the Giants shouldn't be able to get a player who meets your "picky" standards. Which players would you take back for Brandon one-for-one? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3474/time-change#ixzz4Juog94EJ
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Post by Rog on Sept 10, 2016 22:49:41 GMT -5
None of us know who's available in FA Rog -- All one has to do is go to Cot's Contracts to see which players are eligible. I listed several first basemen. We don't know if they will be available or not, but for our purposes here I think we should assume they will be. I didn't include a few first baseman whose option I felt would be exercised (or in the case of David Ortiz, I felt his option would be exercised or he would retire). We know enough to begin making tentative plans -- especially if it's in the context of replacing a player. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3474/time-change#ixzz4JupUp4AI
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Post by Rog on Sept 10, 2016 22:51:18 GMT -5
And Posey is out "best hitter?"
Rog -- As of this minute, Hunter Pence is. Over the full season, it has been Brandon Belt. Career-wise, it is still Buster.
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 11, 2016 9:49:01 GMT -5
Roger says-OK. Whom would you take in return? Here's the issue the way you've stated it: You'd be choosy, and yet the Giants would be trading a player you think is an albatross
***boly says***
Roger, where in the world did I ever say he was an albatross?
I have continually used the word "inconsistent."
When I said I'd be "picky," what I'm saying is I'm not taking some aging, discard.
In a smaller ballpark, Belt has huge value, and someone who would be willing to put up with the holes in his game like the Reds put up with that power guy they got from us who plays LF>
Since he has that power value, there ARE teams out there who desperately need a 1B man and are over stocked in other areas.
Who they are I haven't a clue.
But isn't it interesting how, in the off season, "suddenly" players names pop up in trades or who are available.?
Every year that happens.
It'll happen this year, too.
And even though I've said I've had enough of Belt and his inconsistent nonsense, IF... IF he reaches 80+ RBIS THIS year... I might soften my stance on him.
Not likely, but possible.
I just truly believe we can get someone maybe with less power, but who's a better, more consistent hitter through FA, and get an OF or closer, for Belt.
boly
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Post by Rog on Sept 12, 2016 22:42:35 GMT -5
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Post by Rog on Sept 12, 2016 22:44:04 GMT -5
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Post by Rog on Sept 12, 2016 22:48:10 GMT -5
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Post by Rog on Sept 12, 2016 22:49:50 GMT -5
So we're not commenting on which first basemen would be better for the Giants than Brandon, nor on which player or players we would expect to get in return, or how we're going to replace him? Sounds pretty well thought out to me!
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