I'm totally on the Randy Boat

[klaiggeb]

this 2nd half by Brandon Belt is a microcosm of his career.

Not just inconsistency, but massive periods of "you've got to be freakin' kidding me."

I'm now totally on board with Randy.

Belt has to go at the end of this year.

He has to.

No question he's a good defender. Good, not great.

But the team simply cannot afford a player with such potential, who continues to crash and burn each and every year.

Rizzo and Belt were once compared, everyone agreeing that Belt was the better player.

But Rizzo improved, where Belt, really, has not.

It's time for a trade, and Belt has to be moved.

boly

[Rog]

At the end of 2010 Belt was the higher ranked prospect of the two. He was a year older and closer to the majors. But a year later Rizzo was higher rated. Rizzo than had the luxury of playing another season in the minors, meaning that by the time he played a full season in the majors, he was a year older than Brandon had been.

Belt may have been brought up too soon. An injury to Cody Ross caused him to be called up when he otherwise would have been sent down for more seasoning. Belt himself has suffered a high number of injuries, including a concussion.

Rizzo is really good, better than Belt. Brandon is the better fielder. Average-wise they're about equal. Rizzo has more power and is better at driving in runs. I believe Anthony is the better base runner.

Rizzo plays in more of a hitting park than Belt, which contributes to the hitting advantage. But Rizzo has really come on the past three seasons, and I believe him to be clearly the better hitter.

As for trading Belt, as with any player, it would depend on what one could get. With his team-friendly contract and still-intriguing potential, I would think Brandon would have good trade value. He can block trades to 10 teams annually.

The closer the Giants feel moving Buster Posey to first base will be, the more they might be inclined to trade Brandon. They've indicated in the past that is quite a way off, but Buster appears to be playing with a bad back. The more he gets injured behind the plate, the closer the Giants may feel the move is.

But for now, they think they have a great asset with Buster catching. He's considered among the best defensively as well as arguably the very best offensively.

I'm not sure how Brandon plays compared to Rizzo is particularly pertinent, except that Rizzo makes a good benchmark. But Brandon's play must stand on its own. So far, despite his inconsistency and our disappointment with him, it has. Given that Brandon has played in the tougher hitting park, his overall career performance has been about on a par with Rizzo's -- except for knocking in runs.

If Brandon continues his July-August malaise, he will be more likely to get traded. It might be noted though that career-wise Brandon's only two bad months have been April and July.

[sfgdood]

It's not like I've been AGAINST Brandon from day one. I was his #1 fan on this board when he was a top prospect. I watched him flipping balls off and over the wall at San Jose Municipal stadium seemingly at will. But the more I saw him over the years, the more I could see all his faults. The lack of mental focus, the lack of desire to get better or even fulfill his promise. Now he's got multiple WS rings, an All Star appearance--albeit a very cheap one in a small sample online vote--and a huge multi-year contract. He has even less reason to want to excel than ever before.

Add to all this we have an MVP whose numbers get beat up every year as his body does behind the plate. We need to trade Belt and move Posey to 1st base, and the numbers back me up. At his current pace, Trevor Brown would get 20 HRs and 80 RBI over 600 ABs. And Buster's bat would be lots more potent without the physical abuse it absorbs as an everyday catcher.

[Rog]

I think you are overreacting to Brandon now because you over-estimated him originally. I did too, but I have the sense to realize he's been a good player nevertheless. Just because he's not as good as Rizzo doesn't mean he's not a good player. If the Giants do decide to trade him, there will be plenty of teams with interest.

For whom would you trade Brandon? How would you address the rest of the team next season? How would you balance out the salary structure? If you don't have answers to those questions, you're mostly urinating into the wind.

Trevor Brown may be on pace for 20 homers and 80 RBI's if he caught a full season, but do you honesty expect he would do so if he played every day? He never hit more than three homers in a season in the minors, and he never drove in more than 44. 20 and 80 would seem a bit of a stretch -- although it wouldn't seem so for Brandon.

I don't know of anyone here who doesn't think you're biased against Brandon, Randy. Please step back and take an unbiased look.

[sfgdood]

I say let him go somewhere else. He's fine if all you care about is OBP and you're willing to overlook the lack of production, lack of mental focus and the severe lack of desire to improve and live up to potential. It isn't going to happen in SF because he is loved and people like you excuse his faults. The only thing that will give him the kick in the ass he needs is to be traded to someplace where there will be pressure on him to produce.

[Rog]

Answer the questions please.

[sfgdood]

Those questions are immaterial to this discussion. I made it clear my main objective is to protect our investment in Buster by moving him to 1st base. There would be extra money with Belt gone (along with Peavey and Pagan) to address the main offseason needs...namely the bullpen, the OF and the back end of the rotation. Cain's salary will continue to be an albatross but, as Ive said often, this team spends a lot of money but it could afford to spend even more if it wanted to.

[Rog]

Those questions are immaterial to this discussion.


Rog -- If you feel that way, you're missing the boat.

Don has been arguing for years that Buster should move to first base. I've long showed the pluses and minuses of such a move. Let's just sum it up by saying that Buster wants to catch, and the Giants think because of his leadership, defense and handling of pitchers that he is most valuable there. So Buster isn't going to be moved to first base anytime soon, and your point is moot.

That said, let's suppose the Giants were to trade Belt and move Buster to first base. Which players would you fill the catching hole with? How would you replace Pagan? Would you make a move to repair the bullpen? Would you try to add a fifth starter? And how would you do this in the context of not raising the payroll unrealistically? (When I say realistically, I am saying what it is realistic that the Giants WILL spend, not what you think they should, which makes your "spending" the money unrealistic.

So what are your plans, Randy? You think the Giants should trade Brandon? Of COURSE they should -- if they get enough and are able to properly replace him. So tell us your plan so we can assess whether your desire to trade Brandon is a good idea or not. Right now you haven't given us anything close to enough to evaluate your "plan."

[sfgdood]

Gimme a break, stats geek. Give us YOUR plans for regaining championship form and "we'll" give you "ours." And speak for yourself, not the entire board.

[Rog]

About the only thing I would change is to follow Boly's suggestion and give Casilla help as the closer. I'd be interested in hitting the pitcher 8th more so that the Giants could have three straight "leadoff" men.

It's unlikely that the Giants can s-can their present plan and start over. Tweaks would be good. I'd be on the lookout for any waived player who might be available in trade.

At the end of the season, win or lose, I would fully examine the entire roster and consider trading any player on the roster. I certainly wouldn't trade players just to trade them, but I would be open to just about anything.

I would prioritize as follows:

. Reworking the bullpen, looking to make Law and another reliever the two key ingredients. I'd try to have three lefty relievers and would also give Smith a prominent role.

. Replacing Pagan. I would consider a Parker/Williamson platoon package, but I would be looking for a single player -- preferably one with power. Possibly Mark Trumbo on the free agent market, although I'd have to do a lot more research. Mark's going to cost a fortune, and he's not a good fielder.

I'd look at other areas, but those are the two that stand out for me (and just about everyone else, I suspect).

Yes, I would consider trading Brandon Belt. I'd consider trading anyone. I'd think long and hard about moving Buster to first base, but there must be some reason neither the Giants nor Buster like the idea. If I were to move Buster, I'd consider trading Belt or a good catcher, or I'd look at Miguel Montero as a platoon partner for Trevor Brown.

These aren't well-thought-out ideas. More just quick reactions. Overall, I'd be wide open and try to be as objective as possible. And again,that's win or lose. I don't know the in's and out's of the Giants' chemistry, but it would seem they may have been too wedded to the status quo after winning each of their three World Series.

In short, I'd consider a lot more than simply trading Brandon Belt. How about you?

[rxmeister]

Brandon Belt has been awful since the all star break. So has everyone else. Buster Posey has stunk and completely lost his power. You talk about the beating he's taken behind the plate and how it's affected him and now he has to move to first base. While the move would cut down on future physical abuse, all the previous damage doesn't disappear with a move to first base. His power won't magically return. He won't start running faster. Trade Belt and move Posey to first base where he might now be a well below average hitter at that position? Bad idea. Belt is in a slump. Slumps end. He'll be fine. Belt us way more of a sure thing going forward than Posey is.

[Rog]

Trade Belt and move Posey to first base where he might now be a well below average hitter at that position?


Rog -- Don and now Randy make a good point here regarding how Buster might be a good hitter as a first baseman. He's been a .300 batter as a catcher, which as we know is rare. But while playing first base, he's hit .340, which is almost even better for a first baseman. In a small sample, he's batted .329 as a designated hitter.

Has Buster hit better at first base because he's felt stronger on days he hasn't had to catch? Probably not. He's averaged 1.57 bases per hit as a first baseman, compared to 1.56 bases while behind the plate. As a DH, he's averaged just 1.40 bases per hit. Overall, he's averaged 1.56 bases per hit when catching and ... 1.56 bases when not catching.

Buster's mind may be clearer when he doesn't catch, making for the .339 overall average as a first baseman and designated hitter. But the Giants feel any lack of focus on hitting while catching is more than made up for by his leadership, pitch-calling, framing, ball-blocking and throwing behind the dish.

Part of the difference may also be that Buster plays more first base against southpaws, against whom he has batted .327 and averaged 1.69 bases per hit.

Buster himself has been adamant about catching.

Is Buster shortening his career by playing behind the plate? Probably. Over time, he'll likely play more and more away from the position. In fact, prior to this season he was playing there more and more -- until this season. He started at first base 21 times in 2013, then increased to 35 and 42 the next two seasons. This year his starts at first base have fallen to just 12, as despite his recent struggles, Brandon Belt has remained healthy and hit well.

One can certainly make an argument for playing Buster at first base. He may hit better there, and he would very likely elongate his career. On the catching side, Buster is getting better and better behind the plate, to the point where he also one of the best defensive catchers in the game. Buster himself wants to catch, and the Giants' pitchers seem to like him behind the plate.

Defensively, the Giants are better behind the plate with Buster than with Trevor Brown, and at first base with Brandon Belt instead of Buster.

I think part of Randy's liking the idea of Buster playing first base is that he would like to jettison Belt. While not one of the game's many big stars at first base, Brandon is considered to be above-average for the position.

What I believe is likely to happen is that soon Buster will once again begin playing more first base, with Belt playing a little more outfield. Eventually Buster will probably move there close to full time, at which time Brandon might be traded.

Right now the Giants appear to be a clearly stronger team with Buster behind the plate and Brandon at first base. And their World Championship window appears to be closing. The Cubs are clearly a better team than the Giants, and the Dodgers -- with a future rotation that will likely include Urias and De Leon along with Clayton Kershaw -- seem headed in that direction.

In a couple of years Buster will be 31, and the Giants might be considering moving him to first base, while trading Belt to help them get back enough to compete strongly with the strong, young Cubs and Dodgers. For now, they seem committed to both players at their present positions.

If they weren't already, I think the facts are out there now. I'm unsure of why we seem to be discussing this topic ad infinitum.


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[donk33]

I get the biggest kick out of this talk about how great Posey's catching is and his leadership...wow, have I been missing all these Giants games.....the Giants lost several games because of Posey's lack of ability to go down to block balls in the dirt...he has a funny squat at times that has resulted in stolen bases as he was on his heels when throwing the ball to second....his leadership??? Slow to go to the mound when the pitcher is a heap of trouble...sign calling??? he sticks numbers down until he gets the pitcher to accept one...if he is set up inside or out depending where the pitcher sends him.Several pitchers have shown their frustration trying to get on the same page with Posey...including one time after the first pitch of a game...Framing??? I have seen almost no calls on close pitches go the Giants way...I still think he sets up off the plate and as a result the pitches on the black go against him....Hitting??? the guy continues to hit hangers, but he is chasing more pitches out of the zone than ever before ...he came out of his shoes chasing a wide pitch and tried pulling it with a quick turn over of his wrist...0he is killing potential rallies by clogging up the bases with his slow running....when he goes into these funks he has to be dropped in the batting order...they did it to Belt, but not Posey....Belt's main problem seems to be the "shift" makes him do too much thinking...rear back and hit the ball hard...

[Rog]

.the Giants lost several games because of Posey's lack of ability to go down to block balls in the dirt.


Rog -- Don, nice to hear from you. That said, I get frustrated as much by your prejudice against Buster as I do with Randy's against Brandon.

You see the Giants' losing several games because of Buster's lack of ability to go down to block balls in the dirt. Perhaps you could share each of those situations with us.

The facts say that Buster has just two passed balls and 18 wild pitches allowed in 885 innings while Trevor Brown has allowed as many balls to get past him (four PB and 17 WP) in just 350 frames. As usual, I hate to throw facts into the equation.

Then you talk about how few pitches you've seen Buster successfully frame. I would say you don't know what you're watching there, except that I believe it is simple bias. The official evaluation says that Buster's 22 runs saved framing rank second to only Yasmani Grandal.

His blocking runs aren't near the top, but they are positive. His throwing runs of 2.2 runs saved leads the majors. Haven't you noticed how Buster's throwing has improved the past two seasons? Overall, Buster ranks #2 behind only Grandal.

What you "see" varies so wildly from the actual measurements that it appears an observer as knowledgeable as you must indeed be biased.




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[donk33]

Sept 7, 2016 2:30:42 GMT -5 Rog said:

.the Giants lost several games because of Posey's lack of ability to go down to block balls in the dirt.


Rog -- Don, nice to hear from you. That said, I get frustrated as much by your prejudice against Buster as I do with Randy's against Brandon.

You see the Giants' losing several games because of Buster's lack of ability to go down to block balls in the dirt. Perhaps you could share each of those situations with us.

The facts say that Buster has just two passed balls and 18 wild pitches allowed in 885 innings while Trevor Brown has allowed as many balls to get past him (four PB and 17 WP) in just 350 frames. As usual, I hate to throw facts into the equation.

Then you talk about how few pitches you've seen Buster successfully frame. I would say you don't know what you're watching there, except that I believe it is simple bias. The official evaluation says that Buster's 22 runs saved framing rank second to only Yasmani Grandal.

His blocking runs aren't near the top, but they are positive. His throwing runs of 2.2 runs saved leads the majors. Haven't you noticed how Buster's throwing has improved the past two seasons? Overall, Buster ranks #2 behind only Grandal.

What you "see" varies so wildly from the actual measurements that it appears an observer as knowledgeable as you must indeed be biased.

dk please don't compare Posey with a kid who just turned catcher and spends too much time on the bench to get the hang of catching in the majors....Posey's throwing has been better until recently...but he does catch pitchers with fair control who seldom throw sliders in the dirt..the Giants norm is when ahead in the count, throw high fast balls.....why would I be biased against Posey??? I don't know the guy and have never heard too much about him.if I didn't like him, I wouldn't having him play first, or any where else...but I do have eyes and I write what I have seen....I don't write down every "poor" play, but I did see them...he has a problem squatting and he is too wide with his target...his first inclination is to go "up" on a pitch in the dirt and he is very good at sticking his glove down to field the ball...but that isn't the way it is done...I don't remember everything but it was a pitch in the dirt that went right thru his legs with a man on second...the runner went to third...Giants pulled the infield in and the batter blooped one that could have been caught if they were at normal depth....I don't understand how you can save a run by framing a pitch...what your saying is that the umps would have been wrong 22 times if Posey didn't frame a pitch...boy, that is going pretty far nerdy even to a guy who studied a lot of statistics and had to figure out what they all meant...
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[Rog]

please don't compare Posey with a kid who just turned catcher


Rog -- With whom would you have me compare Buster this year, Don? No other player has caught Giants pitching. Buster has consistently outperformed the other Giants catchers in avoiding passed balls and wild pitches. Surprisingly, that even includes Bengie Molina in 2010. Bengie allowed 3 passed balls and 28 wild pitches in 458 innings, while Buster yielded one passed ball and 22 wild pitches in 662 frames.

With regard to this year, if we compare Buster with Trevor Brown, he comes out very favorably. If we compare him with the rest of the league, he simply comes out favorably. I'm talking ball blocking. If we compare Buster with the rest of the league in throwing and pitch framing, he comes out VERY favorably as well.

Not that it is the best illustration of a catcher's defense, but Buster will very likely win the Gold Glove this season. More importantly, he'll likely rank very high in the Fielding Bible Awards. In fact, he won the Fielding Bible Award last season, beating Bengie's brother by a clear margin.

IMO you're a good baseball observer, Don, but you're spoiling it a bit with your clear bias against Buster.

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[Rog]

he does catch pitchers with fair control who seldom throw sliders in the dirt.


Rog -- Over his career, Buster has caught plenty of pitches in the dirt. Tim Lincecum and Jeremy Affeldt come to mind. Buster isn't having to catch either of those guys this season, and his advantage over Trevor Brown -- considered a decent defender despite his inexperience (even less than Buster had when he came up) -- has been large.

One thing I will say is that Bengie Molina has allowed fewer pitches to get past him this season than Buster has.




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[Rog]

I don't understand how you can save a run by framing a pitch.


Rog -- While not dead accurate, pitch framing is easy to evaluate. Remember how they often say on TV that a 1-2 count is a lot different than 2-1? The difference in those counts is actually measurable. The hits and bases become fewer; the outs greater. Since hits and bases have a positive value, and outs have a negative one, it isn't hard to place a value on a catcher's being able to "develop" more strikes.

And how well he is doing at "developing" strikes can be measured by how many strikes he "pulls" into the strike zone compared to how many he "pulls OUT," compared to other catchers. If we multiply the number by the value of each, we get the benefit. It then becomes simple to compare the various catchers in this light.

You may not like it very much, but GM's put faith in it.

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[Rog]

boy, that is going pretty far nerdy even to a guy who studied a lot of statistics and had to figure out what they all meant...


Rog -- You know the old statement about "missing a good game?" Becuase of his understanding of mechanics, Boly has an advantage over the rest of us. He knows pretty much the same things the rest of us know about the game, PLUS he knows mechanics better than the rest of us. (You may be #2 in that regard, Don -- when you're unbiased.)

Those who lag in their understanding of the metrics of the game are missing out on a chance to ad to their understanding of the game. Some here downplay stats, but general managers don't. They're using FAR more than they did a decade ago. I'm not sure that as a group we've grown along with the management baseball people and players in the game.

It's a shame too. We're missing a lot. Look at how we've misjudged Brandon Belt's hitting with RISP in his overall bad second half, just for an example.

[donk33]

I repeat there are very few people that can look into an umpire's brain and say that he would have called that pitch a ball if Posey hadn't framed the ball into the strike zone...pure horse manure....and I have seen Posey frame hundreds of pitches that were called balls....and so have you...

[Rog]

I repeat there are very few people that can look into an umpire's brain and say that he would have called that pitch a ball if Posey hadn't framed the ball into the strike zone...pure horse manure.


Rog -- You are right, Don, that people can't say how much impact Buster's framing had on a particular pitch. What they can tell is how many pitches outside the strike zone are called strikes when Buster catches compared with the average catcher and how many pitches in the strike zone are called balls with Buster catching compared to the other guys. Now that you better understand how the judgment is made, I hope you realize that while it isn't perfect, it's far, far better than horse manure.

Unless, of course, you're talking about how well horse manure performs as a fertilizer.




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[Rog]

I have seen Posey frame hundreds of pitches that were called balls....and so have you


Rog -- Here you are correct. What I haven't seen is a huge number of balls Buster framed that SHOULD have been called strikes but weren't.

I suspect that if the pitch framing stats showed Buster to be a BAD pitch framer, you would like them a lot more.




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