Tyler Blach

[klaiggeb]

Every time I get to see some film of Tyler, whom I'm watching very closely, I'm getting curiouser and curioser wondering what the Giants have planned for him this season.

For ME... he'd be a September call up, and depending upon how Peavy fares tonight...and Matt Cain in his re hab start, I'd consider him... consider him for a start, or, at the very least, long relief.



3.43 ERA, though not that impressive for AAA, is, IMHO, over shadowed by other numbers.

162.2 ip and only 147 hits allowed; Huge turn around from last year.

38 BB vs 113K. A 3-1 ratio. I like that a lot. Means he's a strike thrower.

A WHIP of 1.14, and an average against of only .244.

I've been watching Tyler off and on for 2 years now, and honestly, I was NOT impressed with what he did last year.

More hits than IP, and 16 HRs allowed in only 165 ip.

Not good.

But he's a Left Hander, and lefties frequently "find it later than righties," so I'm taking the proverbial 'wait and see' attitude.

My thoughts are that he may be... MAY BE a left hander in the Kirk Ruetter mold, albeit a guy who does throw harder.

That would be nice.

Very nice indeed.

Next year... maybe?

Because after this season, I simply cannot see the Giants keeping Matt Cain any longer.

They've been patient with him for going on 3 years...and though I really like Matty... it may be time to part ways with a guy who was a GREAT Giant.

Next year's rotation 'could' shape up:

Bumgarner
Cueto
Moore
Samardizja
Blach.

And who knows, it could be a dandy!

boly



.

[Rog]

Let's not forget that Kirk Reuter wasn't all that good a pitcher. He posted only a 4.27 career ERA and was a winning pitcher primarily because of the excellent run support he received. The best objective argument one can make on behalf of Kirk is likely that he pitched very quickly, helping keep the Giants lively so they could support him so well.

I don't know how quickly Blach pitches, but I do know that here is how he compares to the Clayton Blackburn of last season:

ERA -- Blackburn 2.85 Blach 3.43

WHIP -- Blach 1.14 Blackburn 1.29

K/BB -- Blackburn 3.1 Blach 3.0


Blach was well-liked after a nice 2014 season in AA and has bounced back nicely from a very difficult 2015. We should remember that he's pitching his second straight season in AAA. His ceiling is likely that of a fifth starter or long reliever, as Boly mentioned. Let's hope he reaches the former. He has never been a top prospect, but he might be a survivor.

[Rog]

One would expect the Giants' rotation to be a strong point for the next few seasons. As for this remember, remember -- only four starters are needed in the postseason.

[sfgdood]

One other reason Reuter was better than his numbers indicate--a very foreign concept to stats geeks--is that he was a fierce competitor. He kept his teams in the game and finished tough innings so that his team would support HIS w/l record and not the bullpen's. That is why he is the winningest left-handed pitcher in SF history.

[klaiggeb]

Kirk was just a winner, plain and simple.

I've lost track of how many times Kruk and Kuip alluded to Rueter's ability to win big games.

His numbers ARE very misleading, too.

boly

[rxmeister]

I hate to say it, but I simply don't like Blach's stuff and don't see him as a major leaguer. He's a crafty lefty to minor league hitters, but I don't see him fooling major leaguers. I'd like to see the Giants get a stop gap one year starter until the other Tyler, Beede, is ready. They might even need more, because let's not forget that Cueto opt out after 2017.

[klaiggeb]

From all I read, Blach is a number 4 or 5 guy at best... which, # 5, coincidentally IS a problem for us.

boly

[Rog]

One other reason Reuter was better than his numbers indicate--a very foreign concept to stats geeks--is that he was a fierce competitor.


Rog -- No question Kirk was a fierce competitor. He might have been the fiercest the Giants have had in their SF history.

But the primary reason he has won more games than any southpaw in SF Giants history is that he got great run support. Look at Kirk's run support in his glory years:


1997 -- 5.31

1998 -- 6.00

1999 -- 5.84

2000 -- 5.65

2001 -- 5.22

2002 -- 4.99

2003 -- 5.68

In 2004, his run support dropped to 4.47 runs per game (still good, but not fantastic as in the previous seasons), and he went just 9-12.

Compare that to Matt Cain's run support in two of his first three seasons:


2007 -- 3.20

2008 -- 3.12


Kirk went 93-59 in the that seven-year period from 1997 through 2003. Matt went just 15-30 in the two years mentioned above. Matt's ERA was quite a bit lower than Kirk's. The difference is that Kirk got more than two runs more support than Matt.

Kirk Rueter was a tremendous competitor who was successful due to his fabulous run support more than anything else. Heck, in 1998 alone, Kirk got nearly as much run support as Matt got in 2007 and 2008 combined. What conclusion do you draw, Randy?

By the way, Randy, apart from stats, I likely know about as much about the game as you do. Did I suddenly lose all my baseball knowledge when it was expanded by stats? You continue to downgrade stats, but now that you've stopped overreacting as much, they're clearly your weakness. Not only do you not understand (or know) them, you continually disparage them.

Baseball itself has advanced a lot in the past decade. You shouldn't allow yourself to be left behind.


Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3460/tyler-blach#ixzz4IpGA6NLH

[rxmeister]

Last night Tyler Beede pitched a complete game shutout only allowing two hits, striking out 11 and walking only one. He was hitting 98 mph in the ninth inning. Wondering if he'll skip Sacramento and be considered for fifth starter next year.

[Rog]

That was a good rhetorical question, Mark!

[Rog]

In reality, I would expect Beede to spend at least some time in Sacramento next season -- for a couple of reasons:

First, Tyler may have some development left. His 2.87 ERA is very good, but his 51 walks in 141 innings isn't. Because of the walks, his WHIP is 1.29, which is better than decent, but still not great.

Second, the Giants are unlikely to allow Tyler to get a full major league season under his belt in 2017, since it would move his free agency up by a full year. Even Tim Lincecum, Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner didn't play a full major league season in their rookie seasons.

Khris Bryant and another player have filed claims against this practice, and their result could change the normal procedure of big league teams on this matter.

But for now, there appear to be multiple reasons why Tyler won't begin next season in SF. That said, his time in Sacramento could be brief. He probably shouldn't sign a long-term lease.

[Rog]

I was thinking Blach might become a LOOGY. He has limited lefty hitters to just a .197 average this season.

Great point about Cueto's opt our, Mark. I had forgotten it.

[Rog]

Opt out. Johnny might not be as good a signing the next time around.

[Rog]

Blach had a very nice debut yesterday. One of the very few bright spots, perhaps right up there with each of the four balls the Giants managed to hit out of the infield.

[Rog]

Hopefully Ty will get great run support over his career. If he does, he could become a very good fifth starter in terms of won-loss record.

Looks like the guy headed in the direction of Giants fifth starter though is the other Tyler -- Tyler Beede. Beede won the Eastern League ERA title in yesterday's end to the season, yielding just one run in six innings. That game him a 2.81 ERA, winning the title by four points. Beede was said to be throwing in the high 90's. It should be noted that 2016 was Beede's second season (first full) with Richmond. Much of his success may have come from reducing his walk rate from 4.4 in 2015 to a reasonable 3.2 this season.

That Beede is the Giants' top pitching prospect illustrates why I fear the Dodgers are going around the Giants. Entering this season, 19-year-old Julio Urias was the Dodgers' top pitching prospect. Even at just 19 years of age, he has put up a 5-1, 1.40 record in AAA and gone 5-2 with a 3.69 ERA with the Dodgers. (Beede was 7-8, 2.81 in AA.)

Piling on, Jose De Leon went 7-1 with a 2.71 ERA in AAA this season, winding up the season with a 1.40 ERA in August, while averaging just under seven innings per start, striking out 45 and walking just two in 34 2/3 innings. De Leon also won his major league debut Sunday, giving up three runs, five hits and no walks while striking out nine in six innings.

Remember back when we were worried about how much the Dodgers were spending? (They dropped their salaries by $22 million this season.) Even back then the Dodgers were saying the money spending was only a temporary measure designed to quickly make them competitive. Their focus was on drafting, signing and developing young players.

We weren't properly in tune with that then, but perhaps almost certain Rookie of the Year Corey Seager plus the arrivals of Urias and De Leon will bring us up to speed. Seager is hitting .316, lead the NL with 38 doubles and has hit 24 home runs. Urias and De Leon are a combined 18-4 in AAA and with the Dodgers.

Now, Randy is likely going to get into his "Roger the Dodger" drivel, but even he should know that you keep your friends close and your enemies closer. The Dodgers' development program is much more worrisome than their high spending to acquire major league talent.

Randy was warned about this three years ago. But did he pay attention? Apparently he doesn't believe in keeping your enemies closer. And now the enemy Dodgers may be beginning to pull further away.