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Post by Rog on Jan 29, 2016 18:55:12 GMT -5
We all have our own ideas about which lineup the Giants should use. Here are some from The McCovey Chronicles:
The righty-lefty conscious lineup
Denard Span
Matt Duffy
Brandon Belt
Buster Posey
Brandon Crawford
Hunter Pence
Joe Panik
Angel Pagan
Last year, basically
Span
Panik
Duffy
Posey
Pence
Belt
Crawford
Pagan
Sabermetrics!
If you use the Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool, you get this optimal lineup:
Panik
Posey
Duffy
Belt
Pence
Pitchers
Span
Crawford
Pagan
As Grant Brisbee of The McCovey Chronicles said, we probably won't be seeing a lot of this lineup.
Brisbee's vote
A compromise between the overly dramatic lefty-righty alternating lineup and the rest.
Span
Panik
Posey
Belt
Pence
Crawford
Duffy
Pagan
IMO, that's not bad. I might be tempted to go for lefty-righty:
Span
Pence
Panik
Posey
Belt
Duffy
Crawford
Pagan
When all is said and done though, I don't think the lineup will make that much difference. The Giants' hitters have about as little difference between them as any team's eight. One could darn near lead off with Span, bat Pagan 8th, and draw lots for the middle. Maybe hit Buster 4th too.
But really, just how much difference does it make who hits 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th and 7th? If we go by OPS, the players ran from Duffy at /762 to Belt at .834. That's not a huge amount of difference.
I'm not saying I wouldn't pick the lineup. I might actually pick it on a daily basis, based on the circumstances involved. But with their best traditional lead off man batting first, their top hitter batting cleanup, and their worst hitter batting 8th, how much difference do the other spots really make? Some, certainly, but likely not an earthshaking amount.
If lineups truly make that much difference, why not go with the Sabermetric lineup? It's the one that has been calculated for maximum efficiency. I believe the best way to forge a lineup is to look at the factors involved each and every day. And although it's fun to try, that likely means none of us can come up with one or even two lineups that would work best.
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Post by klaiggeb on Jan 29, 2016 22:24:13 GMT -5
I read that article, and the guy who put Crawford in the 5 hole needs to put the crack pipe down, and step away from the table.
I mean, SERIOUSLY step away!
No.
Span
Panik
Duffy
Posey
Pence
Crawford
Belt
Pagan/Blanco
makes the most sense to me.
boly
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sfgdood
Long time member 
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Jan 30, 2016 11:24:55 GMT -5
We could argue about 4-8 but the top three SHOULD be Span, Panik and Diuffy, at least for starters
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Post by Rog on Jan 30, 2016 15:45:40 GMT -5
We could argue about 4-8 but the top three SHOULD be Span, Panik and Diuffy, at least for starters Rog -- As I mentioned, 2/3/5/6/7 probably don't matter all that much. But I still don't understand why Duffy should hit 3rd. He doesn't get on base enough. He doesn't hit with enough power. If we like him as an RBI guy, why not bat him lower in the order? Not only that, but if he hits third, it would seemingly make sense to follow him with Buster and Pence, which wouldn't spread the right-handed hitters out at all. One could make a slightly better case for him to bat second. He's a little light on getting on base there, as well, but his lesser power isn't as much of a problem. But teams are using better hitters to bat second, since it gets them a lot more at bats. One other thing about Duffy's hitting second or third, the guy is something of a double play machine. That further reduces his value at either second or third in the order. Duffy is the team's 5th-best hitter at best, and unless he is a good leadoff man, such a hitter should bat no higher than 6th. Again, we're just talking. Probably doesn't make all that much difference. If Duffy can increase his power and particularly his ability to reach base, we could talk about his being higher in the order. But when a guy doesn't get on base well or have much power, clearly he belongs lower in the order where he'll get fewer at bats. As for the question about Crawford's hitting 5th, it doesn't make sense to me either, but if we look at him as a big RBI guy, we can at least some logic to it. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3197/giants-lineups-mccovey-chronicles#ixzz3ylJbcJ4P |
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Post by Rog on Jan 30, 2016 15:47:38 GMT -5
Incidentally, Brisbee wasn't recommending that Crawford hit fifth but was merely presenting a possible lineup alternating righties and lefties.
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Post by donk33 on Jan 30, 2016 17:05:40 GMT -5
We could argue about 4-8 but the top three SHOULD be Span, Panik and Diuffy, at least for starters Rog -- As I mentioned, 2/3/5/6/7 probably don't matter all that much. But I still don't understand why Duffy should hit 3rd. He doesn't get on base enough. He doesn't hit with enough power. If we like him as an RBI guy, why not bat him lower in the order? Not only that, but if he hits third, it would seemingly make sense to follow him with Buster and Pence, which wouldn't spread the right-handed hitters out at all. One could make a slightly better case for him to bat second. He's a little light on getting on base there, as well, but his lesser power isn't as much of a problem. But teams are using better hitters to bat second, since it gets them a lot more at bats. One other thing about Duffy's hitting second or third, the guy is something of a double play machine. That further reduces his value at either second or third in the order. Duffy is the team's 5th-best hitter at best, and unless he is a good leadoff man, such a hitter should bat no higher than 6th. Again, we're just talking. Probably doesn't make all that much difference. If Duffy can increase his power and particularly his ability to reach base, we could talk about his being higher in the order. But when a guy doesn't get on base well or have much power, clearly he belongs lower in the order where he'll get fewer at bats. As for the question about Crawford's hitting 5th, it doesn't make sense to me either, but if we look at him as a big RBI guy, we can at least some logic to it. dk...on the '27 Yanks it would be crazy to suggest Crawford should hit 5th...on the 2016 Giants it wouldn't be too crazy for their leading home run hitter to hit 5th...or 4th and maybe 3rd.....and why is one of the lowest bases per hit guy placed in the clean up slot...I think a healthy Pence should be the 3rd or 4th hitter........ Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3197/giants-lineups-mccovey-chronicles#ixzz3ylJbcJ4P |
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Post by donk33 on Jan 30, 2016 17:28:01 GMT -5
We all have our own ideas about which lineup the Giants should use. Here are some from The McCovey Chronicles: gan If you use the Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool, you get this optimal lineup: Panik Posey Duffy Belt Pence Pitchers Span Crawford Pagan dk...looks like this lineup features some of things I liked...Posey in the 2 slot...pitcher in the order...I would prefer him batting 7th.....I would move Pence to 3rd...then Belt, Duffy Crawford, Pitcher, Span and Pagan.....after the pitcher's first at bat, the lineup becomes Span, Pagan, Panik, Posey, Pence, Belt, Duffy, Crawford, Pitcher.....and a possible move would be Crawford and Panik trading places.... |
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Post by Islandboagie on Jan 30, 2016 17:28:07 GMT -5
Rog -- As I mentioned, 2/3/5/6/7 probably don't matter all that much. But I still don't understand why Duffy should hit 3rd.
Boagie- We've tried to explain it to you, but if it doesn't have a numerical value it doesn't make sense to you. Matt Duffy doesn't let pitchers off the hook like Belt does, watch more games and you'll start seeing it for yourself.
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Post by klaiggeb on Jan 30, 2016 18:40:27 GMT -5
Rog -- As I mentioned, 2/3/5/6/7 probably don't matter all that much. But I still don't understand why Duffy should hit 3rd.
Boagie- We've tried to explain it to you, but if it doesn't have a numerical value it doesn't make sense to you. Matt Duffy doesn't let pitchers off the hook like Belt does, watch more games and you'll start seeing it for yourself.
***boly says***
boagie, that was WELL presented!
Rog is my friend, and as I've said often, he taught me a LOT about the value of numbers.
But you stated our case better than I ever could have, because Rog, like so many others, really struggles to look beyond the numbers.
and you example about how Belt LETS pitchers off the hook; man! That was a classic way to describe him!
Duffy might not send Sabermetric guys into orgasm but he DOES so many things well in the 3 hole that even ME, a die hard, THE 3 HOLE HAS TO BE A POWER GUY WHO CAN RUN, TOO, guy, into a believer.
And I didn't think ANY player could ever do that.
Well said.
boly
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Post by Rog on Jan 31, 2016 7:19:59 GMT -5
on the 2016 Giants it wouldn't be too crazy for their leading home run hitter to hit 5th...or 4th and maybe 3rd..... Rog -- Let's not get carried away here. Teams almost always want their top hitters batting 3rd or 4th. Brandon clearly is not that. Based on last season, though, it makes about as much sense as batting Matt Duffy there (especially in the cleanup spot). Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3197/giants-lineups-mccovey-chronicles#ixzz3yp7z36dW |
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Feb 1, 2016 2:28:48 GMT -5
for as much stats geekery that Rog wants to throw at us, the one stat that means the most is the team scoring stats...when Duffy hits third, we score more...it's as simple as that.
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