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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 21, 2015 16:28:33 GMT -5
I was reading the latest articles on the McCovey Chronicals today, and they listed Denard Span as available.
If that's the case, HE fits what we're looking for.
Lifetime .352 OBP, .287 hitter who's FAST!
If we're still looking for an outfielder, HE'S the guy I'd go get...
Unless of course, he's asking for 100 Million + or some other ridiculous figure.
boly
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Post by Rog on Dec 21, 2015 21:54:55 GMT -5
Rated the #27 free agent by MLB Trade Rumors and is projected to sign for 3/$39. Agent: Scott Boras
Plusses:
. Has hit .302 and .301 the past two seasons.
. Has stolen 42 bases in 49 attempts over the past two seasons, including a perfect 11 last season.
. Signing him wouldn't require the loss of a draft choice.
. Very good hitter the past two seasons against right-handed pitchers.
Minuses:
. Limited to 61 games last season due to three separate injuries within a one-year, uh, period, culminating with hip surgery in September. Like Tim Lincecum, Denard will be working out for teams in January.
. Below-average defensive metrics the past two seasons.
. Closest comp is Angel Pagan, who has shown us that injury-prone center fielders don't necessarily age gracefully.
. Has hit left-handed pitchers very poorly the past three seasons.
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 22, 2015 11:09:16 GMT -5
I'll still take him over Pagan, Rog.
boly
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Post by Rog on Dec 22, 2015 15:25:16 GMT -5
I too like Span better than Pagan. Angel hits southpaws better than right-handers, so they could make a platoon team, with Denard on the strong side.
But I would think the Giants would be looking for a right-handed hitter who could either start or platoon with Gregor. Pagan could become injured or otherwise lose his job, but clearly it is his to lose.
Austin Jackson is a possibility. He bats right-handed and is a good center fielder. With a .273/.732 career line, his bat isn't overly strong -- especially since he built some of it with his .300 average in 2012. MLB Trade Rumors has him as their #35 free agent, with a 1/$12 contract projected. He's only 28, so they think he might also prefer a longer contract.
I think the Giants will be watching which free agent outfielders fall in price, hoping at this point for a bargain. They could also look to trade. The Tigers traded for Cameron Maybin and might have someone else to offer.
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Post by donk33 on Dec 22, 2015 16:05:31 GMT -5
dk...right now, the Dodgers first 4 pitchers in their rotation are lefthanders...we still need a long ball, right handed outfielder...
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 22, 2015 17:12:38 GMT -5
I'll take just about ANYONE over Pagan.
#1 priority, right now for a CF is a guy who can go get the ball.
boly
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 22, 2015 19:23:22 GMT -5
The Giants had/have two guys like that, Boly, and they didn't have faith in either. Juan Perez and Darren Ford. Perez was picked up by the Cubs and Ford doesn't even get a September call up anymore. It's safe to say offense is the priority for the Giants, even in CF.
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 22, 2015 22:18:32 GMT -5
I understand, Boagie, but I see Austin Jackson or Span both as upgrades over Pagan.
boly
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 24, 2015 1:42:34 GMT -5
Boly- I understand, Boagie, but I see Austin Jackson or Span both as upgrades over Pagan.
Boagie- Austin Jackson no longer fits the criteria you've set forth for a leadoff hitter. His OBP in recent years hardly makes him capable of batting 8th, but he's probably better defensively. Denard Span on the other hand is a solid table setter, but questionable defensively. Pagan in my opinion, when healthy, is a better all around player than Span or Jackson.
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Post by rxmeister on Dec 24, 2015 8:01:52 GMT -5
Boly, you have said on a zillion occasions you would never sign a Scott Boras client. Now you're willing to overlook that or Denard Span, and not an elite superstar? I wouldn't mind Span, and the Giants will be happy to know that I'm not as greedy in LF as before with the Cueto signing, and will settle for a lesser player. I actually prefer either Parra, who some people think is a slightly better Blanco, but I think was a borderline all star this year, or Dexter Fowler, who became a much better hitter after working with Barry Bonds.
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Post by Rog on Dec 24, 2015 11:04:41 GMT -5
My research says Fowler is the man. It appears that despite putting up similar overall numbers last season, he actually hit the ball harder, indicating some bad luck. He put his numbers up for the first time without having Coors Stadium as his home park. He gets on base and can steal them. He posted a career high in home runs with 17. His defensive metrics rebounded after a down 2014 season. A switch hitter, he hits righthanders OK (.761 career OPS) and southpaws even better (OPS over .800).
Parra looks 2nd-best, but his time to first base has declined by a quarter of a second the past two seasons, and runners are taking the extra base more on even his very powerful arm. His defense appears to be slipping. He hardly walks (4.8% walk rate) and doesn't hit southpaws well.
Span is coming off hip surgery, and Jackson's batting average has been slipping.
Unfortunately Fowler will likely be clearly more expensive. But IMO he's the guy. The other guys, even Parra, have more question marks.
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 24, 2015 11:09:10 GMT -5
Mark. I guess I didn't do enough research, or I simply FORGOT that Span is a Boras' guy.
That being the case, Ummmmm, NO THANKS!
I'm in on Fowler IF he's a guy of character.
I have to wonder why a guy so young has been on so many teams.
boly
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 24, 2015 12:11:42 GMT -5
Just about all Fowler's offensive stats from last season were below his career averages, everything but homeruns. how does that make him a more desirable choice as a leadoff hitter?
I don't like Fowler, he's always seemed too streaky to me. Seems like every year we faced Fowler while in Colorado, he'd have a big game, double, triple 3 rbis...maybe a stolen base or two. Then next time we roll into Colorado we don't face him at all because they benched him for someone else.
That's not what we need leading off. We already have Blanco who is pretty streaky, and Pagan who always winds up on the DL. We need a consistent piece, if anything.
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 24, 2015 16:56:29 GMT -5
Boagie:
Last year Fowler's Life Time OBP is .363, compared to Pagan's pathetic .330. I say pathetic because for a lead off guy,that's not acceptable.
Not even close.
Fowler is faster, is a better defender, and if he's not a character problem, he's a better fit than Pagan.
Me? I've already said what I'd do; platoon Blanco and Williamson in LF next year.
Blanco can also back up in CF.
Pagan is going to be 35 in July, Fowler will be 30 next March.
Pagan continues to wear down, unable to play a full season.
I'll take those five years of Fowlers, put him in the 1 hole, and we're better off.
boly
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Post by Rog on Dec 24, 2015 21:21:14 GMT -5
Just about all Fowler's offensive stats from last season were below his career averages, everything but homeruns. how does that make him a more desirable choice as a leadoff hitter? I don't like Fowler, he's always seemed too streaky to me. Seems like every year we faced Fowler while in Colorado, he'd have a big game, double, triple 3 rbis...maybe a stolen base or two. Then next time we roll into Colorado we don't face him at all because they benched him for someone else. That's not what we need leading off. We already have Blanco who is pretty streaky, and Pagan who always winds up on the DL. We need a consistent piece, if anything. Rog -- Would it please anyone to know that last season Fowler was slightly less streaky than Buster Posey, at least in the sense of going "x" number of games without a hit? Both players had a few three-game hitless streaks, and Buster had one of four games. Dexter's average fluctuated, but his lowest OPS in any month was .726, which was nearly 100 points higher than Pagan's season average. Dexter's OBP last season was .346, which is fine for a leadoff man. For instance, it was 12 points higher than Matt Duffy's. The previous four season it had been between .363 and .389. Baseball-Reference projects his OBP next season at .351, which seems reasonable given that his walk rate increased in 2015. Fan Graphs projects him at .347. Dexter should continue to be a good leadoff man for the foreseeable future. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3172/mccovey-chronicals#ixzz3vIKGmZWM |
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Post by Rog on Dec 25, 2015 12:50:28 GMT -5
As a base runner, Fowler has taken a lot of extra bases, mitigated somewhat by being thrown out on the bases a lot. The past two seasons he has earned a +21 bases -- a good but not great figure -- seeing it limited by being thrown out or doubled off 15 times trying to advance. For those who like running, he's very aggressive, if not always successful.
Dexter has been a good base stealer, notching 31 steals the past two seasons while being thrown out only 11 times. He was involved in 27 manufactured runs last season alone.
If Dexter takes fewer chances as he ages, he might become an even better base runner. 17 homers -- he likely won't hit that many in 2016 -- is a high amount for a leadoff man (if not exactly Bobby Bondsian), but Dexter gets on base from either side of the plate and runs OK -- not great -- once he gets there. His overall speed rating the past two seasons has been better than Angel Pagan and close to Gregor Blanco.
If Fowler replaces Pagan, he hits southpaws better than lefties, just like Angel. He just hits them both a fair amount better. If one looks at him as a complement to Blanco, Gregor of course hits right-handers better.
It would be nice if Dexter's defense were more consistent, but he does have plenty of speed, and his defense going forward will quite possibly be better than either Span or Fowler. Span is coming off hip surgery, the last of three injuries in one year, and Parra has lost a quarter second running to first base plus is seeing runners take more bases on his strong arm. Austin Jackson may be the best fielder of the quartet, but he's also the worst hitter.
My guess is that the Giants are waiting to see which player's price drops into their value range. By that I don't necessarily mean the least expensive, but rather the player they view as being the least expensive compared to the value they feel he brings.
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