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[klaiggeb]

I honestly never thought I'd see this, but it was reported this morning that we were 6-1 favorites to win the World Series.

Of course, so are the Cubs favored at 6-1... but for ONCE to actually BE THE FRONT RUNNER... well, as a fan and former player... that's a nice feeling.

One I never thought I'd see in my lifetime.

Of course, now were in the center of EVERYONE'S bulls-eye, which presents a different challenge in and of itself.

Still, with the veteran presence we have; with the battle tested players we have, if we stay healthy and everyone performs at least close to expected levels, it should be us playing someone for the chance to represent the NL in the world series.

A long time to go I, know, but on paper, that's how I see it.

For the moment I'm just going to savior the thought of suddenly going from little to no chance, to having a really GOOD chance.

boly

[Rog]

For the moment I'm just going to savior the thought of suddenly going from little to no chance, to having a really GOOD chance.


Rog -- I think this shows the value of waiting until all the winter work is done before panicking. Prior to the Cueto signing, the Giants had plenty to spend. The question was how they would spend it.

I like Cueto a lot, but he is projected to add 3.2 Wins Above Replacment by Fan Graphs. Chris Heston is weighted at 0.7. So Cueto may have added three wins with his signing.

That's not insignificant, but my point is that even prior to the Cueto signing, the Giants had clearly more than "little to no chance" to win it all.




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[Rog]

Here's a more important point. The Dodgers aren't done yet. They've had a dud of a winter so far, and you just KNOW they want to change that radically. They have a ton of prospects now, so they are in fabulous position to upgrade through trades.

We all hope they don't, of course, but let's not forget them for a New York minute.

[Rog]

If you're going to "savior the thought," you're thinking about the right things!

[Islandboagie]

The Dodgers keep acquiring hot prospects, either they're building for the future, or they're loading up the deck to make a blockbuster trade. I'd assume the latter.

[rxmeister]

The Dodgers are having the offseason from hell right now, but I agree that it's too early to start shoveling dirt on them. They lose Greinke, then the Chapman trade falls through, then the Iwakuma signing falls through when he fails the physical. From what I heard the three way deal with the Reds and White Sox brought them an excellent pitching prospect, Frankie Montas. Can't believe the media missed the Frankie Goes to Hollywood joke here. I guess I'm old!

[Rog]

I would say the Dodgers are building their prospect pool right now to set themselves up for a trade or trades, but let's not forget that their long-term goal is to build with prospects so they can spend less money. Right now I'm guessing money isn't too much of an object, although even now their short-term goal is to cut back a bit on spending. The horrid luck they have had this off-season might change that a bit for this winter.

It's kind of nice to see the Dodgers have bad luck this winter, somewhat like the Giants did last year. That said, the Giants were probably lucky in the longer run to HAVE the bad short-term luck. Somehow I prefer Cueto and Samardzija to Sandoval and Shields. (Admittedly, Cueto and Samardzija cost about $50 million more.

[rxmeister]

Morosi is reporting that they're attempting to trade for either Carlos Carrasco or Jake Odrizzi. Two good going pitchers, but neither is a Greinke.

[Rog]

Here is a question. We may have asked it before, but I'm not sure we got an answer.

Are the Giants better off with Cueto at 6/$130 and Samardzija at 6/$90, (a total of $220 million), or would they have been better off with just Greinke at something like 6/$210? I have seen intriguing ideas each way.

[Islandboagie]

I would have been happier with Greinke and Heston over Cueto and Samardzija. It would have left us with more money left over to resign Lincecum or Vogey and address the outfield issue, perhaps resigning Byrd to a one year deal. As it stands right now, we have a raw Parker and Williamson slated as our 4th and 5th outfielders. One is fine, two along with Blanco and Pagan leaves a lot of uncertainty.

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy the Giants have opened their pocketbook, I just think my strategy would have added more depth to some questionable roster spots.

[klaiggeb]

It now seems obvious that we never could have afforded both Greinke AND Cueto, or Zimmerman.

One article I read this week pointed out something very interesting, and honestly, HAD I THOUGHT OF IT FIRST, would have moved me off of my stance of whom to sign.

Instead of signing just ONE great arm, instead, we signed 2 GOOD arms for about the same cost.

Honestly, that is a smart play.

Obviously I would prefer Greinke to either one, but IF we had signed Senor GREED, we would have been stuck for rotation options which I don't really care for.

Madison, Greinke, Cain, Peavy, Heston.

Ummmm. No thank you.

Heston faded like the Titantic after it began taking on water; fast!

Too much of a risk when I'd rather see that sinker in long relief.

I much prefer what we have now:

Madison, Cueto, Jeffy, Cain, Peavy.

boly

[Rog]

I would have been happier with Greinke and Heston over Cueto and Samardzija. It would have left us with more money left over to resign Lincecum or Vogey and address the outfield issue,


Rog -- Good point. Greinke is averaging $34 million per season, while Cueto and Samardzija are averaging $40. The Giants would have had Greinke for six years, whereas they have Cueto for the same six, but Samardzija for only five.

The Giants did spread their risk in a couple of ways, in that they diversified their risk, plus having more depth with Heston as a backup starter, compared to having him in the rotation and presumably Clayton Blackburn as the backup. With the health problems experienced by Peavy and Cain the past two seasons, that might come in handy. They also have a long man (Heston), whereas they might not have wanted to put Blackburn in that role.

One possibility that could have developed is that the Giants might have signed Tim Lincecum to provide added experience. That seems highly unlikely now.

As you mention, they also might have more to spend on a center fielder.

One thing to consider is that despite pitching in a hitters' park, Cueto has a better ERA over the past five seasons than Greinke. Zack had the fabulous year in 2015, while Cueto took a bit of a step backward, but despite that difference of well over a run and a half in ERA, Johnny has the lower of the two during that period. That is somewhat offset though by Cueto's opt out, which forces the risk more in the Giants' direction despite Cueto's being younger.

Having an extra pitcher might help also in 2017, since Jake Peavy will be eligible for free agency and in 2018, since Matt Cain will likely be eligible.

It's a tough call, with the opt out working against Cueto and Samardzija, but the greater potential for the duo compared to just the older Greinke augurs toward the way it is.

There are just so many ways this could turn out, including, as you mentioned, whether the Giants can still pick up a center fielder. My guess is that right now they are waiting to see who turns out to be undervalued. They have already accomplished their main goal and can afford to be patient. That's kind of how they picked up Aubrey Huff, for example.




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[klaiggeb]

boagie--I would have been happier with Greinke and Heston over Cueto and Samardzija.

***boly says***

Whew! Not me, boagie! Not even close for me.

Heston I think is/was a flash in the proverbial pan, and IMHO, Bochy suspects that, too.

He got hit too hard the 2nd half, way too hard for me to have any confidence in him.

And worse than getting hit hard, he really didn't have command.

It appears that everyone adjusted to him and WHACK! Well,the rest is history.

I think he has spot starter/long reliever value, but that's it.

boly

[Islandboagie]

Samardzija got hit pretty hard all season. And Heston isn't signed to a 6 year deal, plus he's younger.

[klaiggeb]

Boagie, Jeff has much better stuff, and better by a lot.

Other than last year's aberration, Jeff has been pretty good.

Like I think it was Mark, pointed out, (a) he was tipping his pitches, and (b) they found a flaw in his delivery, and (c) you're not giving Righetti and Gardner enough credit.

Look what they did for Jason Schmidt, just to name one who had stuff equal to Smardzija.

I'm betting you're going to be very surprised.

boly

[Islandboagie]

Based on last year, his stuff wasn't very good. He got hit, and hit often. He allowed more hits than innings pitched.

Chris Heston gave up LESS hits than innings pitched. Based on those stats, it would seem Heston has more unhittable stuff. The Mets would probably agree.

You might be right though, and they might be able to figure out some issues with Samardzija, but that doesn't seem like a situation you want to lock down for 5 years, especially when you have a guy like Heston who had a promising first year.

[klaiggeb]

boagie,

You're right, a one year snap shot shows Heston with better numbers, but I'll still take my chances with Jeff.

I can't believe anyone as smart as(1)The Giant scouts, (2) Bochy (3) Righetti would agree to take a chance like this if they weren't pretty darned sure he could be righted.

I also can't believe that anyone as concerned as the Giant front office is about spending long term contracts for pitchers would consider such a deal if THEY weren't pretty darned convinced that last year wasn't an aberration.

and I keep coming back to Jason Schmidt. Look him up before he came to SF. NOT numbers that spin anyone's head. But he had the stuff, and the Giant teachers took him from there.

boly

[Rog]

I have liked your comparison to Jason Schmidt all along, Boly. His devastating change up had a lot to do with his success in a Giants uniform. That wasn't even a plus pitch when he came to the Giants.

What did point to increased success though was that Jason's K/BB ratio had jumped from a career rate of about 1.80 to 2.33 in 2000 and 2.75 with the Pirates in 2001. Jason was striking out more and walking fewer.

Jeff's K/BB ratio was far higher in 2014 than it had ever been before, and even in his horrible 2015 season, it was his second-best. The past two seasons his control has been the best of his career, although his strikeout rate fell off both seasons, alarmingly so last season. In 2013, Jeff struck out a batter per inning. By last season, that rate had fallen to seven per nine frames.

Positives for Jeff last season were also that his Fielding Independent Pitching was far better than his actual results, and his 1.29 WHIP was only a bit over his career average of 1.28.

All in all, it appears that the Giants will have gained a nice deal if they can fix Jeff's pitching. With his having tipped pitches last season and worked poorly with his pitching coach, that's what it appears to boil down to.

Despite previous criticism here, Dave Righetti is highly respected in that regard. Mark Gardner and Dick Tidrow have fine reputations. As a former catcher, Bruce Bochy know a little about pitchers, and the Giants' present catcher, Buster Posey, is considered one of the best in working with pitchers (once again despite criticism here).

IMO the Giants' ability to "fix" Jeff and their ability to stay healthy might be the two biggest issues in their bouncing back strongly in yet another even year.

[Rog]

Regarding Chris Heston and K/BB ratios, his was cut nearly in half from the season's first half to the second. He started walking more batters and allowing more home runs. Batters hit for a higher average overall despite a low Batting Average on Balls In Play, indicating Chris wasn't merely unlucky.

Chris was darn good in AA in 2012. He had a season in AAA in 2013 that was worse than Samardzija's season last year. He bounced back in 2014, but wasn't as dominant as he had been prior to 2013. We know how well he fared in early 2015.

So who is the real Chris Heston? He didn't come from as close to nowhere as I had thought before looking him up, so if his problems in the second half stemmed from arm problems or simply wearing down, he might actually be pretty good.

With the fragility of pitchers, he'll likely get a chance to start again, probably in 2016. If he's truly good, he'll likely show it and perhaps take Jake Peavy's spot in 2017. With Matt Cain's likely leaving after 2017, there would be plenty of room for both Heston and one of the top pitching prospects who's surnames begin with "B."

Madison Bumgarner has been one of the most solid and consistent pitchers of this decade. Johnny Cueto has been one of the best. Peavy and Cain have shown great ability but have had health issues. Samardzija is very high risk/high reward. If Chris Heston is the real deal, he'll likely get to play a lot of hands. There is no reason for us fans to fold on him.

And I don't think the Giants have done so either. They are simply keeping him in the hole.

[klaiggeb]

Roger-Despite previous criticism here, Dave Righetti is highly respected in that regard. Mark Gardner and Dick Tidrow have fine reputations. As a former catcher, Bruce Bochy know a little about pitchers, and the Giants' present catcher, Buster Posey, is considered one of the best in working with pitchers (once again despite criticism here).

***boly says***

Well said, Rog, and I couldn't agree more.

At one point in time I was one of the biggest Righetti detractors.

That ended years ago.

He has proven over and over just how good he is.

When combined with Tidrow, Gardner and Bochy, THAT is a formidable group, and, when it comes to pitching, one that I'll trust.

boly

[Islandboagie]

I can't disagree with anything you guys are saying. I have faith in our coaching staff as much as anyone. But the price and even more so the length still seems a lot for a project.

I asked the question before any deals were made, who would you rather have, Greinke and Heston, or a combination of any of the other two free agent pitchers (within reason) and nobody really answered. Now the same question has been asked, Greinke and Heston or Cueto and Samardzija? Not just here, I've heard the same question on KNBR. After a down year from Cueto, a terrible year from Samardzija, a fantastic year from Greinke and a promising first full year from Heston, I think it's still a reasonable question to ask, with no real solid answer until the 2016 season is played out. However, right now, considering the length and price of the contracts, I'd give the edge to Greinke and Heston.

[klaiggeb]

I guess that's where I disagree, boagie; "a promising first year from Heston."

I'm not all that sure it really was.

A promising first half. Yes.

But he fell off so badly in the 2nd half; had such command problems in the 2nd half, that I'd rather have the pair we have than Greinke and Chris.

boly

[Islandboagie]

But one of the pair that you prefer had a worse full season than Heston's second half. Why is Heston unfixable, but Samardzija is easily fixed? I don't get it. So I ask you, Boly, since you know pitching, why is Heston's second half a preview of things to come, while Samardzija's struggles are all on the manager and pitching coach, and can be daily fixed?

[Islandboagie]

Easily, not daily..stupid autocorrect.

[klaiggeb]

That's easy to explain, Boagie.

In my original answer I said: ---"You're right, a one year snap shot shows Heston with better numbers"---

Heston's track record is, other than last year, all minor league.

His only MLB season was 1 good half of baseball.

Now, compare that to Jeff:

3.81
4.34
2.99
4.96

Throw out last year and here's what we have:

LESS hits allowed than IP.
8+K/IP

He had one bad year.

One

Throw out last year's aberration and his WHIP is barely over 1.0.

He has much more velocity than Heston, and even better sink.

If you're basing the entire opinion on LAST YEAR only, you're right: Heston was better.

But I'm basing my opinion on MLB career, stuff, and our coaches.

boly

[Islandboagie]

Now, compare that to Jeff:

3.81
4.34
2.99
4.96

Throw out last year and here's what we have:

LESS hits allowed than IP.
8+K/IP

He had one bad year.

Boagie- I don't see one bad year, I see two bad years, 1 decent year and 1 good year. The one good year was split between the Cubs and the A's after putting up a good first half with Chicago, teams out there were clamoring for his services, thinking his secondary stats would turn into wins on a good team. That wasn't the case on the A's, nor was it last season with Whitesox.

[Islandboagie]

Don't get me wrong though, I think the addition of Cueto and Samardzija has made our rotation better, but let's be honest, 90% of the excitement of having the new rotation is focused on Cueto, not Samardzija. After we got Samardzija and before we got Cueto you and Randy were still predicting doom, and I secretly felt the same. So I know you don't have huge hopes for Samardzija, neither does Randy, or I. In fact if Samardzija doesn't shit the bed, I'll be pleasantly surprised.

[donk33]

dk..in watching Heston in the first half of the season I thought he had the best movement of anyone on the staff....in the second half, he lost all that movement on his pitches....I don't have the same confidence in "Rags" to straighten out a pitchers mechanics or how to pitch to batters...I watched him stand around during the first years of Zito stay with the Giants when he never got him to pitch inside with his "fast" ...the same weakness I pointed out even before he signed with the Giants...people sat on the outside part of the plate and roughed him up....Lincecum's mechanicstill stink as it did when he won all those awards...but I said it then and I'll repeat...he throws an illegal pitch and got away with it...also, as I warned in his good years, he depends too much on the flexibility of his body and he will lose it as he ages....and he aged early...Hestor lost it in the middle of the season and "Rags" never found out what the problem was that caused it....did he have blister problems that caused him to change his grip or did he lose his "slot"?

[Rog]

Regarding Samardzija, all his stats say "mistake." But he throws very hard, was mishandled by his pitching coach last season, and was tipping his pitches. Whether we like his signing nor not boils down IMO to whether we trust Dave Righetti and company to bring him back to the pitcher he was in 2014.

If the Giants can resurrect the Cueto and Samardzija of 2014, they should have a great rotation.

[Islandboagie]

Regarding Samardzija, all his stats say "mistake." But he throws very hard, was mishandled by his pitching coach last season, and was tipping his pitches. Whether we like his signing nor not boils down IMO to whether we trust Dave Righetti and company to bring him back to the pitcher he was in 2014.

Boagie- I do trust Righetti, Bochy and Gardner, and that's not what it boils down to me. If they're THAT good, we wouldn't need to sign a "project" pitcher to a 5 year deal. I'm not saying Samardzija can't turn it around, I just don't see it anymore likely than Heston having a full year like his first half. If they're as good as people think, why not just let them mold Heston?

Despite what Boly thinks about Heston's stuff, I agree with Don, Heston has some good stuff. He's got one of the best curveballs ive seen in recent years. Unfortunately, all that dissapeared after July.