Philies pull off a good one

[Rog]

Ken Giles should become a very good closer for the Houston Astros.  He boasts a 1.56 career over two seasons, and after Jonathan Papelbon was traded at the deadline last year, he posted 15 saves.  But the rebuilding Phillies got a lot in return.

23-year-old Vincent Velasquez posted a 3.28 minor league ERA, with 354 strikeouts in 296 innings.  He posted a 4.37 ERA in 55 innings as a rookie call up for the Astros last season.

24-year-old Mark Appel has struggled in his first three minor league seasons, but he was the #1 overall pick out of Monte Vista High and Stanford in 2013. 

The Phillies received one major leaguer and two more prospects while giving up a prospect themselves.   Entering 2015, Appel was rated as high as the 30th overall prospect, while Velzasquez came in as high as #75 overall.  

It's kind of fun watching some of the struggling teams attempt to reinvent themselves.  The Phillies have made other moves this winter.

[Rog]

Forgot to mention that as a result of the trade, former Giant Danny Otero was designated for assignment. Otero has been a pretty good reliever, posted a 3.46 career ERA in four seasons. He fell of to a startling 6.75 ERA in 42 games with the A's this past season, but he was at 1.38 and 2.28 the two previous seasons.

This trade shows how much the cost in prospects is in trades these days. Not a great sign for the Giants, but they do have a few pieces to deal.

[klaiggeb]

When do we get to post: "Giants pull off a good one!"?

When they do one, of course.

No. Make that IF they do one.



boly

[Rog]

Good point, Boly. Let's hope it is soon. At least their opportunity is still there.

[Rog]

One thing I should mention too is that the Phillies' goal this off-season is far different than the Giants'. They are trying to rebuild and thus are trading off veterans to get back prospects. The Giants want to trade prospects for veterans.

[Rog]

On the other hand, teams like the Cubs and Diamondbacks have improved their lineups immensely. They did have the advantage going in of having a much lower payroll than the Giants and thus in theory at least had more to spend.

There are often (usually?) cycles in baseball. Teams get bad, then if they're lucky, they become good. The Giants are past the upswing portion of that cycle, whereas teams like the Cubs and Diamondbacks are just entering it. The Giants are having to PAY for their talent now, whereas the Cubs and Diamondbacks aren't spending much on their core and thus have more available monies for free agency.

The guy I would have signed would probably have been Jason Heyward. Instead, the Cubs got him. And while Jason is one of the best all-around players in the game, he doesn't have a lot of power, and he doesn't hit southpaws well. Greinke is past what are usually a pitcher's prime years.

I liked Price too. He's younger, and his fastball sped up a mile per hour last season. But $217 million is a lot to risk, too.

I like Cueto, but he might have arm problems. I like Chen, but he is getting more expensive by the day. I like Iwakuma, but the Dodgers snatched him up. Same with the Cubs and Lackey. Than again, those guys are old for pitchers.

I like Leake, but it appears he wants to play in Arizona. I liked Estrada, but the Blue Jays were able to re-sign him. I like the guy the A's signed for 1/$6 million, but he wasn't the splash we want. There are possible trade targets, but just as the free agent market is getting very expensive in greenbacks, the trade market is getting very expensive in prospects.

One thing that is sometimes overlooked is that there are a couple of free agents center fielders out their flying under the radar. Denard Span is one. But he's getting to the age where speed players often slow down on the bases, in the field and at the plate.

Alex Gordon is a very good all-around player, but he's a lot older than Heyward and will still command good money. With all the players I have mentioned here there are risks, and most of them come with warts.

I just read where six of the top 10 free agents as rated by MLB Trade Rumors are still out there. I think that was before Heyward signed, but that still leaves half. It ain't over till it's over.

[sfgdood]

Just an observation...you seem to be excusing Mark Appel more than other first rounders I can remember

[klaiggeb]

I've heard enough of Bobby's rhetoric.

Put up, or shut up, Bobby E.

boly

[Rog]

Just an observation...you seem to be excusing Mark Appel more than other first rounders I can remember


Rog -- He's been awful so far, but I read where he's still considered the #43 prospect. Maybe that was BEFORE the past season, but it didn't read that way.

If Appel fails, he won't be the first first pick to do so. There have been quite a few. Remember our discussion that we should EXPECT a pitcher drafted #10 to become an All-Star? It doesn't always work that way.

Greg Reynolds, also out of Stanford, was drafted #2 overall in 2006, and he has pitched just briefly enough in the bigs to post a record that is below the level of a replacement player.

I'm not all that big on Appel personally. But he's a guy with upside, and he doesn't seem to be any better than 2nd-best (if that) among the five players the Phillies scored in their trade of Ben Giles. I do think Giles has a chance to be excellent, but the Phillies need much more than just him.

As I look back on what I said about Appel in this thread, it was "24-year-old Mark Appel has struggled in his first three minor league seasons, but he was the #1 overall pick out of Monte Vista High and Stanford in 2013." I'm not sure how that is going easy on him. It sounds like a few facts and the pretty-much-universally-shared opinion that he has struggled, particularly for a #1 overall pick.

Here is what Baseball Musings said about Appel in the context of the trade: "Appel, of course, was a first pick draft choice. Obviously, the Astros soured on him, but he might still have some potential."

The House of Houston said: "This is essentially a five-for-two deal that I wonder if it was just a bit too much to begin with.

Although Appel has had his struggles with giving up the runs, I still had a feeling that he’d be pitching on the mound regularly at Minute Maid Park in the near future."

But this move certainly demonstrates that (Astro GM) Luhnow feels Appel isn’t untouchable and that he had good enough value to deal.This is essentially a five-for-two deal that I wonder if it was just a bit too much to begin with.

Although Appel has had his struggles with giving up the runs, I still had a feeling that he’d be pitching on the mound regularly at Minute Maid Park in the near future.

But this move certainly demonstrates that Luhnow feels Appel isn’t untouchable and that he had good enough value to deal."

It appears my opinion of Appel may not be as high as that of others. But first overall picks aren't just traded willy nilly.




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[Rog]

Actually, Randy, your reference may be to how I regard Mark Appel compared to how I viewed Gary Brown. I knew a lot more about Gary, having read some of the scouting reports on him. Obviously Appel was quite highly regarded when he was drafted #1 overall, but I haven't actually seen any of his scouting reports.

Incidentally, the Phillies have a decent rotation without Appel.