Base Running

[Rog]

Of the nine Giants who played the most (Aoki, Belt, Blanco, Crawford, Duffy, Pagan, Panik, Pence and Posey) all but three had net gains in base running.  Who were the three who didn't?

Congratulations if you get more than one of the trio.

[Islandboagie]

Maxwell played more than Pence.

[Rog]

You're right, Boagie. I just didn't think of Justin as more than a caretaker. Do you think he was positive or negative in his base running? How about Kelby Tomlinson? Were the Giants as a team positive or negative, and where do you think they ranked among the 30 teams?

We'll maybe look at defense later, but how did the Giants do in the speed portion of the speed and defense we would like them to build around?

[Islandboagie]

I'm not sure what net gains in base running means exactly. But I'll just say Crawford and Belt were among the best because they're really good base runners.

[Rog]

Included in net bases earned are bases taken, outs made on the bases (thrown out trying to advance or doubled off), stolen bases, and grounded into double plays compared to GDP opportunities. The idea is to take as many bases as possible with speed and guile while limiting the number of outs made.

You are correct that both Brandons were positive (which would surprise some with Belt, although he is an efficient base stealer who hits into few double plays). Neither was at the top, but both were indeed positive.

Any guesses as to which three players were negative?

[Islandboagie]

Rog-You are correct that both Brandons were positive (which would surprise some with Belt, although he is an efficient base stealer who hits into few double plays). Neither was at the top, but both were indeed positive.

Boagie- I don't think anyone here would be surprised. We watch the games enough to know both Brandons have decent speed and are smart on the base paths.

Based on the criteria of the stat you're referencing I'd say Posey is also near the top, or at the top based on the fact that he's slower and more apt to play it safer on the base paths.

As for who's the lowest three, I'd guess Pagan, Blanco and Aoki. They are faster and more apt to stretch it sometimes. However, I remember Roberto Kelly also having issues at third base with Aoki and Blanco, that too figures in. And thus making the stat not as accurate as the stat geeks might assume.

[Rog]

Boagie- I don't think anyone here would be surprised. We watch the games enough to know both Brandons have decent speed and are smart on the base paths.

Based on the criteria of the stat you're referencing I'd say Posey is also near the top, or at the top based on the fact that he's slower and more apt to play it safer on the base paths.

As for who's the lowest three, I'd guess Pagan, Blanco and Aoki. They are faster and more apt to stretch it sometimes. However, I remember Roberto Kelly also having issues at third base with Aoki and Blanco, that too figures in. And thus making the stat not as accurate as the stat geeks might assume.


Rog -- Some here think Brandon Belt is a dolt, and he has indeed made more mistakes on the base paths than one would expect. But he steals bases efficiently and avoids GDP's almost entirely.

Buster has been far below neutral in the past, due in great part to his proclivity for hitting into double plays. He is a pretty solid base runner for his speed though, and he was just positive this year.

You nailed two of the three negatives. Aoki was pretty awful at -19 bases. He was thrown out three times trying to advance on the bases and doubled off four times. Pagan was a poor -7 bases, having been both thrown out and doubled off four times.

You got two out of the three and should be commended for doing so. Surprisingly, the other was Hunter Pence, primarily because he grounded into 8 double plays in 40 opportunities.

Now, I have to question you on something you said. You said the base running stats aren't "as accurate as the stats geeks might assume." You would be significantly wrong about that.

Base running is one of the difficult stats to evaluate. How much is taking the extra base worth? How costly is making an out? How much, as you mention, does the third base coach enter into the equation? How about luck with regard to very good or poor throws? How about the hitters after a runner? A Punch and Judy hitter will make it tough to take the extra base, while a power hitter may make it considerably easier. A manager who gives the "must steal" signal cuts into his base stealers' efficiency.

But even basic stats such as batting average and ERA are less than perfect. Both are effected a fair amount by luck. Some seasons a hitter enjoys it; others, he doesn't. A pitcher's ERA is effected significantly by how his relievers prevent his bequeathed runners from scoring. Sometimes he grooves a pitch and gets away with it. Other times he makes a fine pitch, only to see it bloop in for a hit.

These are some of the reasons why the larger the sample, the more reliable it is.

You did a very nice job in getting two of the three negative base runners, Boagie. I would venture few here would have done as well. I doubt I would have.

But I now see one of the reasons you are somewhat (less than others) against "stats nerds." If you see a weakness in a stat, you can be almost certain they see it at least as clearly as you do. How many times have I said here that stats aren't perfect, but if they help improve our understanding of what has or perhaps will happen, they have value.

Randy clearly doesn't have a clue about the value of stats, and I feel that to varying degrees, that is true of just about everyone here. Heck, I likely know the most here about stats, and there are many things I don't know.

The point of these stats isn't that they're perfect. It's that they help us understand better. Most of the guys we would expect to be the best base runners show up that way metrically. Most of the worst do too. But not always. And the metrics help us understand just HOW good or bad a base runner is, and its approximate effect on the team.

Anyway, I commend you for accepting the challenge, Boagie, and for doing a very good job with it. I'm assuming others either didn't care enough or weren't confident enough to accept it as well.

By the way, Don has made a very good point that some of these metrics go back all the way to Branch Rickey -- and in some cases, perhaps even before that.




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[Rog]

One point I overlooked, Boagie. You mentioned that Posey was slower and thus didn't take as many chances on the bases as a reason he might score well. In reality, a runner who doesn't take enough chances won't fare well.

I have recommended runners take MORE chances in advancing. We sometimes applaud a base stealer who is successful 40 out of 60 times in a season. That guy's outs likely cost as much as the successful steals gain. Conversely, base runners are successful in advancing at a very high rate. That tells us they could likely take more chances and help the team more.

It's tough for Buster because he's slow. Given his speed though, he's a pretty good base runner. One slow base runner I recall being even better was J.T. Snow.

By the way, I both like and dislike the idea of including GDP's and GDP opportunities in base running. I usually think of it as running the bases AFTER reaching base. But speed enters into double plays too, and a player can really hurt his team by hitting into too many. If the double play is the pitcher's best friend, it would seem to be the offense's worst enemy.

[Rog]

I mentioned that Aoki was by far the most negative Giants base runner. Care to take a crack at who was the most positive?

[Islandboagie]

You nailed two of the three negatives. Aoki was pretty awful at -19 bases. He was thrown out three times trying to advance on the bases and doubled off four times. Pagan was a poor -7 bases, having been both thrown out and doubled off four times.

You got two out of the three and should be commended for doing so. Surprisingly, the other was Hunter Pence, primarily because he grounded into 8 double plays in 40 opportunities.

Now, I have to question you on something you said. You said the base running stats aren't "as accurate as the stats geeks might assume." You would be significantly wrong about that.


Boagie- How could I be wrong about that if your base running stats show Buster Posey as a better base runner than Hunter Pence? Clearly that isn't the case. And as I said before, Aoki and Blanco both get left out to dry at 3rd base by Roberto Kelly a few times, that figured into your stats as well. That makes those stats not accurate. I'm sorry if you don't agree.

Is Brandon Crawford the best base runner according to your stats? I recognize him as probably the best. Belt is also good, as is Panik, Tomlinson and Duffy. Blanco is really good, as was Aoki. The Giants as a team is good overall.

If you don't trust my judgment, trust that of Tim Flannery's. He recently said that Crawford was the best base runner he'd ever coached. I'm going to take his opinion over that of some flawed stats.

[klaiggeb]

Boagie makes some really good points, Rog.

Let's just say that Roberto Kelly... well, ummm.... left a LOT to be desired as a 3B coach last year.

then again, we were truly spoiled by Flannery's work, of that I have no doubt.

3B coach AIN'T as easy as it looks, and at the ML level, there IS a learning curve.



boly

[Rog]

Now, I have to question you on something you said. You said the base running stats aren't "as accurate as the stats geeks might assume." You would be significantly wrong about that.


Boagie- How could I be wrong about that if your base running stats show Buster Posey as a better base runner than Hunter Pence? Clearly that isn't the case. And as I said before, Aoki and Blanco both get left out to dry at 3rd base by Roberto Kelly a few times, that figured into your stats as well. That makes those stats not accurate. I'm sorry if you don't agree.

Is Brandon Crawford the best base runner according to your stats? I recognize him as probably the best. Belt is also good, as is Panik, Tomlinson and Duffy. Blanco is really good, as was Aoki. The Giants as a team is good overall.


Rog -- I've gotten context wrong here before too, Boagie. Here is what I said you were wrong about, which didn't have anything to do with Buster. Here is what I said:

Now, I have to question you on something you said. You said the base running stats aren't "as accurate as the stats geeks might assume." You would be significantly wrong about that.

My point is that so-called "stats nerds" usually realize the limitations of stats at least as well as we do. For you to assume they don't is fallacious.

As for Buster Posey's having had a better season on the base paths than Hunter Pence, as I said before, it was primarily because Hunter grounded into 8 double plays in 40 opportunities. That's a 20% rate, and it wouldn't surprise me if the only player who fared worse was Casey McGehee.

I think if you go back and carefully re-read the previous post or posts, you will see what I meant. I believe we are on the same page -- except that I believe you assume that so-called "stats nerds" think various stats are more accurate than they actually are. I'm sure that is the case on some occasions with some stats and some guys, but overall I don't think it's a problem.

Re-read everything and see if you still believe there are points that don't make sense.

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[Islandboagie]

That's fine, Rog, I have no problem with having the opinion that stats are just a mere suggestion based on the numbers. But then I have to wonder why you and other stat geeks keep referring to obscure analytics as facts. Seems like you and the others switch your stance on the accuracy of stats depending on the argument.

[Rog]

But then I have to wonder why you and other stat geeks keep referring to obscure analytics as facts.


Rog -- I personally don't refer to them as facts. To begin with, I don't know all that many of them.

I do refer to batting average, OBP, SLG, OPS, ERA, WHIP, etc. as facts. They're determined mathematically from results.

What I don't consider to be facts are the evaluation stats, such as WAR. I do think WAR is objective, and I don't know of anything that better approximates the all-around value of a player than WAR does, but it certainly isn't fact.

I believe you misunderstand a few things about analytics and perhaps more than a few about me. That said, you understand more than most and are making an honest effort as far as I can tell.




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