Boly predicts...

[klaiggeb]

I'm going out on a limb here, but 'depending upon' what else we do in the FA pitching hunt... don't be surprised IF


IF...IF... you see the Giants move Brandon Belt for a CF.

I know the hole that leaves them there, and it's a huge one.

But here's my rationale:

1-I believe the Giants are frustrated with how long it's taken Belt to "develop." No question, he's a premium defender, I'm talking 'develop' into a power hitter at the plate.

2-I want to believe the Giants realize that Pagan AIN'T the guy in CF anymore. Not after last year. Even when healthy his defense was iffy. If I'm the GM and IF I'm actually planning to have Williamson or Parker in LF... I NEED a guy who can 'go get 'em' in CF, AND who can hit a little. Doesn't have to be a big power guy, but 12-16 HRs would be nice.

3-I believe, as I think they believe, that it would be EASIER to find a 1B who can give you 12-15 HRs, than it would be to find a power hitting CF



-------Don't be surprised if the Giants sign a FA 1Bman to fill Belt's hole IF I'm right and they move him.

These are just hunches based upon nothing.

We'll see.


Don't know that I'd like Belt moved, but for a CF who can play? I'd really think long and hard about it.

boly

[Rog]

I find it intriguing that your focus has suddenly switched from a starting pitcher or two to a center fielder. Not that I -- or likely the Giants -- disagree. In fact, and this will shock you, I'd recommend Jason Heyward. Isn't that a surprise?

Two center field possibilities have been traded already.

Aaron Hicks was traded from the Twins to the Yankees for a catcher who doesn't appear to me to be as good as Andrew Susac. We have been discussing Hicks since last year's trade deadline IIRC.

Cameron Maybin went from Atlanta to Detroit. Maybin is another center fielder we have been discussing since the break. Cameron is a former top prospect who is a favorite of no less than Willie Mays, whose number he shares.

I have thought the Giants would acquire their starting pitchers via free agency and a center fielder by trade. Maybe you know a center fielder who is available. The two guys I had thought of are already gone.

If I were going to trade Belt, it would be to acquire Carlos Carrasco. I expected Brandon break out last season, so I see no reason he can't do so this year. He will also be eligible for free agency in two years, so if the Giants can't lock him up as they did with Brandon Crawford, this might be the time to trade him.

But for whom? And whom would they acquire for first? I agree they could surely find someone. Pedro Alvarez was non-tendered, as were Chris Carter and Ike Davis IIRC. Alvarez and Carter are power hitters who can't field a lick. I saw Carter play in the minors (against San Jose IIRC) and didn't like him then. He can't hit for average, but he does have power. Alvarez is a former very high draft choice.

As I have mentioned before, I really like Carrasco. He could make an excellent 2nd starter, and few teams would have a #1 and a #2 who cost less than Bumgarner and Carrasco.

If the Giants are talking about extending Belt, they likely won't trade him unless it is a big deal. Carrasco would qualify IMO. I'm not sure which center fielder would.

As for a first baseman who can hit 12-15 homers, that is sub par for the position. If he's a guy who can field well and hit for average, that would change things. But last season there were 27 first basemen who hit more than 15 homers.

Good center fielders are hard to come by. Only nine qualifiers at the position hit above .280 last season. The Blue Jays' Kevin Pillar hit .278 with 12 homers and 25 steals in 29 attempts. Adam Jones hit 27 homers, and the Giants -- or virtually any other team -- would take him in a minute. Maybin hit .267 with 23 steals in 29 attempts. The Rays' Kevin Keirmaier is a huge defender who hit .263 with 10 homers and 12 triples. Dexter Fowler hit 17 homers and stole 20 bases.

If the Giants chose to go that way, both Fowler and in oft-injured Denard Span are free agents. Span has hit over .300 each of the past two seasons but was limited to just 245 at bats last season. Austin Jackson is a good fielding free agent with a .273 career average with a .333 OBP. He doesn't walk much anymore though, making him a bottom of the order hitter. Last season his OBP was just .311.

It might be easier to find a center fielder on the free agent market than to trade for one. Hicks and Maybin are already gone, and there just aren't many good center fielders around. Gregor Blanco was probably better last season than a lot of starting center fielders.

Not exercising Nori Aoki's cheap option does indicate the Giants want a guy who can play center field -- or possibly a left fielder with more power. I guess the Giants wanted Aoki's net $4.7 salary available to pursue Zack Greinke. Maybe they'll use the dollars for a more expensive free agent outfielder.

Thus far though, I have to say I'm not enamored with the signing of Jeff Samardzija, and before that I wasn't pleased with letting Aoki go. The Giants probably felt that Blanco could do many of the same things as Aoki, and perhaps the Giants were worried about Nori's concussion or ankle.

Prior to breaking his ankle, Nori was playing at an All-Star pace last season. He has about as good a shot at hitting around .285 as any player in baseball. His four batting averages have been .288, .286, .285 and .287. I hoped his non-signing indicated the Giants were going to make a big move or two. Perhaps they still will.

But Aoki is making 4th outfielder money and is a nice little lead off man. His career OBP is .353. He hasn't fluctuated much in that regard either, posting .355, .356, .349 and .353 marks.

I'm certainly not giving up as some here appear to be, but I'm not happy with the off-season either. There are still some moves they can make, and Heyward and Carrasco are the two I'm most intrigued by. Heyward isn't likely to be happening, but I would strongly pursue Carrasco. The thing is that the Giants are wanting to trade prospects for proven major leaguers, and Bobby Evans says teams aren't yet ready to make that type of trade. The Braves are, but Maybin is already gone. Gerardo Parra is a free agent who has played some center field.

I expect the Giants to make a trade this week. 24-year-old Braves pitcher Julio Teheran had a down season in 2015, but boasts a 3.44 career ERA. The Giants probably don't have enough to offer to acquire him, especially given that he's signed through 2019 for just $28.6 million with a $12 million option for 2020. Like Carrasco though, he seems like the type of pitcher to go after hard.

Cost controlled players are the heart of what makes the Giants good. Acquiring Carrasco or Teheran would simply make the cost-controlled core even better. As you point out, Boly, Belt could be an important piece to make such a move possible, even though he himself is cost-controlled for two more years.

Neither the Braves nor the Indians truly need a first baseman, although the Braves seem to be considering trading Freddie Freeman, which could open a hole for Belt. With losing out on Zack Greinke and then quickly signing Jeff Samardzija, the Giants have had an intriguing if disappointing week. This coming week should be exciting too, and perhaps its result will excite us more.

Meanwhile, let's hope Dave Righetti is every bit the guru we think he is.

[Islandboagie]

Marcell Ozuna is said to possibly be on the trading block.

But I don't think we need a center fielder. We have Pagan and Blanco.

I don't think we need Heyward either. From what I know about Heyward, he's streaky. He also chokes in high pressure situations, basically, he's a loser.

[klaiggeb]

Ownership denied that Ozuna was on the block, Boagie, and if you seriously think Pagan is the guy... well, then you and I are never going to agree.

And Roger, I haven't changed my stance on getting starting pitching.

I just had a 'hunch' that the Giants were going to move Belt for what they really need on offense; a CF.

Me? I GET Cueto. Period. Whatever it takes that's not downright stupid.

I'm not pushing to trade Belt.

I said, it's just a hunch.

And you can keep Heyword.

Don't want him, don't want Upton.

boly

[sfgdood]

I get that you guys get enjoyment talking about the team, regardless of the circumstances but this offseason is a failure, there is no doubt. We were fed a load of crap about what a great crop of FA pitchers were to be available and that we would have lots of money to spend on them because of contracts coming off the books. This was the company line to justify the failures of last offseason. And what do we end up with? Freakin Samardzija! Is this what they were talking about when they fed us the bull? I'm pretty sure we all would have been pissed if they told us we'd end up with this load of crapola and we'd have been RIGHT to be pissed. I can't believe people are still backing this load of morons running the ship. As far as I'm concerned all reason for optimism has been squashed unceremoniously. Jeff Samardzija is the poster boy for the end of the dynasty. The only question now is how long we need to wait until the next world series.

[Rog]

this offseason is a failure, there is no doubt.


Rog -- A couple of problems with that statement. First, the off-season isn't over yet, so we have no way of knowing whether it is a failure or not. Second, the season hasn't even started, and it would seem that the team should play a season or two before declaring the off-season a failure.

When a person speaks in absolutes (such as "there is NO doubt"), he is almost always wrong. The world usually isn't made up of absolutes. If the Giants had signed Price, Greinke and Heyward, there would still be some doubt as to how they would finish. And if they had done NOTHING, we still wouldn't know how it would work out.




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[rxmeister]

If the Giants add Maeda, and Cespedes or Upton to Samardzija, I will be very happy with this offseason.

[Rog]

I like Maeda too, Mark, although it's hard to judge how players in other countries will translate. Maeda's not very big, but he certainly has pitched well. I think he's at the top of my list. With his being posted, I don't know how the timing would work out and whether the Giants feel they could wait.

I heard a couple of sources say they believe the Giants will sign one of the big outfielders. They're looked at as one of three finalists for Ben Zobrist, although Zobrist may prefer to play the infield. It is also said that Ben realizes his value is his versatility but prefers to play everyday at one position. With the Giants' infield, they could show him he would be almost exclusively a left fielder. Bruce Bochy is said to love the guy.

Alex Gordon was also mentioned as a Giants-type player.

[Rog]

Zobrist visited the Giants on Sunday in what was termed a positive meeting. Apparently the Giants aren't considered the favorites to sign him though.

[klaiggeb]

Mark, I do NOT understand your fascination with Upton. Since he came into the league, he has repeatedly shown that he broods when slumping, his brooding carries over into his defense, and, in general, is viewed as a selfish player.

I'd be happier with Zobrist, or Heyward over him.

But I just don't see Zobrist signing with us, and the fact that he's already 34 means we're back in the same predicament in a year or three as we are now if we DID sign him.

IF we arre serious about winning, GO Get one of the few top arms remaining, and give the kids a shot in LF!

We HAVE a good, but not great, offense that keeps the line moving with some power. We simply do NOT need (wants and needs are different) a bat.

What we need outside of a starting pitcher to fill out the 3 spot in the rotation is, a CF who can actually stay healthy, take good angles to fly balls, and cover a LOT of ground.

And that isn't Pagan, and hasn't been Pagan in sometime.

And based upon recent Bobby Evans comments that I've read, HE isn't convinced Pagan is the guy either.


I WOULD LIKE to think we'd actually GET SOMETHING DONE at the winter meetings, but experience with this group tells me we likely will not.



Going into ANOTHER SEASON with our fingers crossed and counting on things to go WRONG for every other team for us to have a reasonable chance is depressing.

I'm TIRED of that!

boly

[Islandboagie]

Boly- Going into ANOTHER SEASON with our fingers crossed and counting on things to go WRONG for every other team for us to have a reasonable chance is depressing.

Boagie- I'm just hoping it doesn't go wrong for us to the extent that it did last season.

[Islandboagie]

Mark, I do NOT understand your fascination with Upton. Since he came into the league, he has repeatedly shown that he broods when slumping, his brooding carries over into his defense, and, in general, is viewed as a selfish player.


Boagie- I think the attraction with Upton is that the Giants wouldn't allow his brooding to exist. There's a reason Sandoval bottomed out last season in Boston, while he was successful in San Francisco.

As I predicted last year with the Padres, Upton and Kemp are good players, but not leaders in the clubhouse. If you inject either of those players into an already established leadership led clubhouse they'll be a success. If you rely on them to be the big men on campus, it's apt to fail, as it did last year in San Diego.

Of course there are certain players who are so far gone that they can't get past their own ego. Yasiel Puig would be one example, partly due to the language barrier.

I can guarantee you Upton would get the treatment from Posey, Pence, Cain and Bumgarner to name a few if they felt he wasn't trying. In that clubhouse, if one of those guys are on your ass you listen, period.

[Rog]

I WOULD LIKE to think we'd actually GET SOMETHING DONE at the winter meetings, but experience with this group tells me we likely will not.


Rog -- I think the Giants are going to get another pitcher and also a left fielder. I think they'll either get one high-priced guy and a lower-priced on, or two guys making high salaries but not top ones. I think Maeda and Gordon might be a possible combination.




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[Rog]

Going into ANOTHER SEASON with our fingers crossed and counting on things to go WRONG for every other team for us to have a reasonable chance is depressing.


Rog -- Isn't that kind of the way its been going into each of the three World Series seasons? Even once the postseason has begun. The Giants have been underdogs in almost every postseason series in which they have played.




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[Islandboagie]

Rog- The Giants have been underdogs in almost every postseason series in which they have played.

Boagie- Only by those who don't follow the Giants, and refuse to factor in chemistry.

[Rog]

Boly- Going into ANOTHER SEASON with our fingers crossed and counting on things to go WRONG for every other team for us to have a reasonable chance is depressing.


Rog -- Almost every team enters almost every season keeing their fingers crossed and essentially hoping that more things go wrong for their opponents than go wrong for them.

I hate to make Randy even more depressed than he already is (if it is even possible), the that horrible team, the Diamondbacks, he wondered why Zack Greinke went to, is now favored by some to win the NL West. But even they have to hope that more things go wrong for other teams than go wrong for them.

I think just about everyone would agree that they have improved themselves more than the Dodgers and particularly the Giants, but they were also 65 runs behind the Dodgers in run differential and 62 behind the Giants.

Assuming their trade for Aroldis Chapman goes through, that combined with their signing of Isashi Iwakuma might do a lot to replace Greinke for the Dodgers, and the Giants are replacing only Nori Aoki, Tim Hudson, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Vogelsong and Jeremy Affeldt, which they may already have come close to doing in signing Jeff Samardzija.

Brian Sabean says the Giants' top priority is still signing another starter, and they have been linked at one time or another to many of the top free agent outfielders. With the Nationals' being said to have dwindling interest in Mike Leake, the Giants might be able to re-sign him somewhat reasonably. Hopefully that would leave enough money for a good outfielder, possibly Alex Gordon or Dexter Fowler.

One thing to keep in mind is that Leake will likely gain a 5-year contract just as Samardzija did, which would likely mean the Giants will have committed an average of about $37 million per season for each of the next five. That's a very significant bet. If they also sign a good outfielder, that might put them at or over $50 million in average commitments for the next five years. That's a quarter of a billion.




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