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Post by Rog on Dec 5, 2015 5:49:00 GMT -5
The only bad thing about Jason Heyward that I can see is that he's going to get a TON of money. I don't think he'll pass Zack Greinke in cost per season, but I think there's a good chance he'll get the largest TOTAL contract this off-season. And the Giants may not be willing to wait for him, even if they want to head in that direction (which they haven't shown to us fans).
Randy likes to keep ragging on Brandon Belt, but if Brandon is healthy, do you realize how much he could command on the open market? I think we could get some idea of how much that is by looking at how much Alex Gordon gets. And Alex, as with just about every one of the highly-desirable free agents, will likely get quite a bit.
As I think about it, I don't see a lot of motivation for the top guys to sign quickly. Prices seem to be getting more and more out of hand. If I were a marginal guy, I might look for early security. But if I were in demand, I would likely bide my time.
Can you imagine how guys who are eligible to become free agents in a year or two are licking their chops? And Belt is one of those guys.
I think Brandon Crawford is really happy to be a Giants for six more years, but do you think he realizes he could have probably gotten a LOT more money by waiting? Put Brandon on the open market right now, and I could see his approaching $20 million per season.
As prices continue to soar, I think the Giants should rely more and more on their scouting and analytics to come up with relative bargains. And get their own guys locked up. Do we have any idea how much Joe Panik would be worth on the open market? Fortunately the Giants have him under team control for five more seasons. Guys like that are GOLDEN.
I think more and more the game is going to be to develop prospects into players and then trade them for more good prospects. It's going to be tougher and tougher to keep a team's legacy going without either keeping young talent flowing or spending a ton of money.
Let's look at how the Giants have won three World Series in six years. They have built their success around homegrown guys like Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Sergio Romo and Joe Panik. Matt Duffy is joining that group, and hopefully many others will follow. They have supplemented that homegrown talent with shrewd trades such as Hunter Pence, Javier Lopez and Jake Peavy. Perhaps Mike Leake will join the latter group if he re-signs with the Giants.
We would all love to see the Giants sign top free agents, but that isn't how they have built their success. With prices spiraling out of control, I think they need to emphasize their scouting, analytics, drafting and development even more. Spend more on the front end to avoid having to overspend on the back end. That strategy can win World Championships.
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 6, 2015 14:18:50 GMT -5
I think that's basically what they've been doing, which has already resulted in 3 World Championships. Where the Giants need to improve is in the international scouting, drafting and development. If I'm correct, Felipe Alou is heading up that division of the organization. Perhaps they need a younger, fresh set of eyes in that area.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 6, 2015 17:14:22 GMT -5
The Giants hit the jackpot with a few drafts (Lincecum, Posey and Bumgarner) but the fact is their scouting and development isn't that great. It's going to take a long time and probably a shake up in the FO/Scouting personnel to recapture WS form if they don't start landing big time FAs. They have the money to do it but they stubbornly refuse to change their ways.
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 7, 2015 4:03:01 GMT -5
Randy- The Giants hit the jackpot with a few drafts (Lincecum, Posey and Bumgarner) but the fact is their scouting and development isn't that great.
Boagie- Matt Cain, Sergio Romo, Brandon Crawford, Brian Wilson, Brandon Belt, Hunter Strickland, Matt Duffy, Kelby Tomlinson. Catching the resurgence of Peavy and Vogelsong, genius. Trading Sanchez for Cabrera, great move. Signing Huff for 4 mil, brilliant. Inviting Juan Uribe to spring training, becomes one of the best super subs in the game. Getting Pat Burrell and Santiago Casilla
Picking up no namer Andres Torres, one year later he's arguably the best leadoff hitter/center fielder in baseball, two years after that they trade him for Pagan, who becomes arguably the best leadoff hitter in baseball...the list of intelligent moves could go on for a while.
You can argue that they're cheap, but saying their drafting and scouting isn't that great is just flat out wrong.
The Giants have probably had the best success of drafting and transactions than any team in recent history. If anyone disagrees, I challenge you to name a more successful team.
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Post by rxmeister on Dec 7, 2015 8:28:12 GMT -5
Getting back to the topic, Bob Nightengale predicts the Giants will sign Jason Heyward. I haven't seen any rumors linking them, but with the meetings starting today we'll know soon.
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 7, 2015 13:15:06 GMT -5
Bob Nightengale will predict and report on everything, even if it holds no substance. I often wonder how Bob and people like him continue to have an interested audience.
That being said, since the Giants have established they are going bargain hunting again, I think Justin Upton might be a more likely option. Upton only made $14.5 million last year, he could potentially be landed for less than $20 mil a year. Heyward is reportedly looking for a 10 year deal, Upton could be signed for significantly less years.
Heyward would be a nice addition, but he's more of a top of the order guy. We have Pagan or hopefully Blanco leading off, with Panik or even Duffy batting second. Upton would fit better deeper in the lineup, batting 6th or 7th. The Giants don't have a problem getting on base, they lack power from their outfielders. They need a power boost towards the back end of the middle of the lineup.
How good would this look?
1. Blanco/Pagan CF 2. Panik 2B 3. Duffy 3B 4. Posey C 5. Pence RF 6. Belt 1B 7. Upton LF 8. Crawford SS
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Post by Rog on Dec 7, 2015 15:32:42 GMT -5
Intriguing lineup, although Upton might be nearly as expensive on a yearly basis as Heyward. Fewer years to get him though.
If the Giants had Heyward, it might makes sense to have him bat third against right-handed pitchers. He has an .838 OPS against right-handers, including a .372 OBP. When you've got a guy getting on base 37.2% of the time right before your cleanup man, you've got something going.
Jason hasn't hit southpaws well (just a .660 OPS), but he can still contribute in the field.
I like Heyward better in the three-hole than Duffy because he gets on base a lot more often and has more power. I don't think Matt is as good a hitter as Heyward, Belt or Pence and thus would have him batting lower in the order. Matt's .334 career OBP isn't high enough to bat third without a high SLG, and he is only .415 in that department.
Even without Heyward, I wouldn't bat Duffy third. He's not really a good enough hitter to bat there. I would go with Belt/Pence, flip flopping them between third and fifth. Duffy could then bat sixth.
I'm expecting a little fall off from Matt this season. He doesn't strike out much, but walks so seldom that he has struck out more than three times as often as he has walked. That said, his contract is very high on pitches inside the strike zone, and he doesn't swing at a lot of bad pitches. Probably not much of a drop off, but I do expect some.
Fan Graphs expects a drop off to a .717 OPS, but Baseball Reference looks toward .761, which is almost identical to his .762 of last season.
Anyway, Matt isn't a typical #3 hitter, and while the Giants don't have a perfect one, Brandon Belt against righties and Hunter Pence against southpaws aren't bad.
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Post by Rog on Dec 7, 2015 15:44:08 GMT -5
Man, I really like the Heyward idea. Like everyone else here, I hadn't heard anything about it. I wonder if Nightengale has a source or is merely speculating that with the Giants' having missed out on a splashy pitcher, they might make their splash with an outfielder.
The only thing I don't like about Heyward is that he doesn't hit southpaws well, and the Giants are already a team that hits righties a lot better than lefties. With a horrible .477 OPS he was flat=out awful against them in 2014. He rebounded to .709 last season though. Still not very good, but halfway acceptable.
I've got to admit I'm having doubts about Jason now that I see how poorly he has fared against southpaws. I've got to think that one over a bit.
The Giants had a .742 OPS against right-handers last season, compared to .707 against southpaws.
One article on MLB Trade Rumors said the Diamondbacks are close to being tapped out and therefor might not have enough to win out on Mike Leake. The Giants are now being associated with Ben Zobrist, as well. I believe the Giants may have enough in the budget to sign both Leake and Zobrist, but it would be tight. And there are others who don't think the Giants have as much in the budget as I do.
I still think the Giants will trade this week, so with free agency becoming a little more defined with the recent signings, we should have some action this week.
Can't wait! Might not be happy with the results, but I still can hardly wait.
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 7, 2015 16:58:33 GMT -5
OK. I'll try to explain to you why Belt, or Heyward wouldn't be a good choice batting 3rd as easiest as I can.
Bottom of the 8th, no outs, runners on first and second. Blanco, Panik and Belt or Heyward due up. Opposing team brings in the left handed specialist, rally killed as fast as it started.
I understand why Duffy is not a perfect 3rd place hitter, but he doesn't have a glaring weakness that can be exposed by the opposing team in a win or lose situation.
This is one of those examples where you're only thinking of the numbers.
But let's look at the numbers a little closer. Batting 3rd in the order Duffy has a higher average and slugging percentage than Belt and Heyward in their careers. With Heyward it's not even close. Again, even with you being the numbers expert, you're giving one dimensional stats to support your argument.
Belt has a better OBP, but I've always maintained Belt's decent OBP is due to him not jumping on good pitches to hit. Duffy isn't overly patient, but he's not overly aggressive either. He waits for his pitch and hits it hard somewhere when he gets it. Belt guesses, and often when he guesses right he still is unable to square it up.
Sorry, I just can't see either Belt or Heyward being a better 3rd place hitter than Duffy, mainly because it's just not true.
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Post by rxmeister on Dec 8, 2015 10:00:35 GMT -5
I think Nightengale was predicting Heyward to the Giants, he didn't have a source. FWIW, Heyman is predicting Cespedes to the Giants. I have read elsewhere that the Giants have been in constant contact with his agent. Bochy is supposedly pushing for Upton. Ben Zobrist and Mike Leake both appear to be out at this time and I'm good with that. Zobrist wants to play second everyday, but the Giants say that Panik is completely healthy. Zobrist will probably sign with the Mets, although the Nationals are meeting with him today. As for Leake, it's between the DBacks and Cardinals. DBacks don't seem to have the money, but he's from there and wants to make it work. The Giants, according to Jayson Stark, want Japanese pitcher Kenta Maeda, and the posting process starts today. Maeda is known to prefer the west coast.
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 8, 2015 10:59:14 GMT -5
Mark. I listened to those same reports on MLB, and even though a part of me was encouraged that we might ACTUALLY DO SOMETHING, I also realized what you pointed out: Unsubstantiated sources.
And now the Dodgers supposedly have a deal in place for A. Chapman pending criminal investigations that are taking place concerning him.
Once again, it appears, we're playing second fiddle, sucking hind teat, playing the role of toilet paper, wiping up the rear, pick the expression you like best, to not just the Dodgers, but the NL west in general.
What have we done outside of Jeffy I-wanna-buy-a-vowel?
Ummm, nothing.
There's still a lot of off season to go, but right NOW, at this moment, I'm leaning more and more towards Randy's corner; that the off season is, and will continue to be a bust.
We'll see, but as other clubs improved themselves and we don't, it's becoming more and more apparent, at least to ME, that we're just unwilling to spend the money necessary to win.
boly
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 8, 2015 12:21:04 GMT -5
Boly- Once again, it appears, we're playing second fiddle, sucking hind teat, playing the role of toilet paper, wiping up the rear, pick the expression you like best, to not just the Dodgers, but the NL west in general.
Boagie- What have the Dodgers done? They lost Greinke and replaced him with Iwakuma, big downgrade.
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 8, 2015 13:28:26 GMT -5
they just signed Chapman... or will as soon as he clears... his police problem.
They also resigned Utley, not a big deal, but note that I ALSO said, "the NL West, in general."
Why did you just single out the Dodgers?
Right now, I'm worried about the Diamond Backs because from all that I read, they are NOT done.
boly
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Post by Rog on Dec 8, 2015 15:31:40 GMT -5
OK. I'll try to explain to you why Belt, or Heyward wouldn't be a good choice batting 3rd as easiest as I can. Bottom of the 8th, no outs, runners on first and second. Blanco, Panik and Belt or Heyward due up. Opposing team brings in the left handed specialist, rally killed as fast as it started. Rog -- Things aren't always as they seem Boagie. The rally killer in that instance would actually be the right-handed hitting Duffy, not Belt or Heyward. Matt's OPS against southpaws last season was only .642. Belt's was .802, and Heyward was at .709. I understand why you felt the way you did, but one of the benefits of playing fantasy baseball for the first time was that I "platooned" players. One would expect I would play Matt against southpaws, but in reality I played him against right-handers when I had him. Although I used it for fantasy purposes, that baseball on the field -- you know, the stuff so-called "stats nerds" don't know. I submit that most of those guys know as much or more about the game on the field as we do -- and they know a fair amount more about it "off" the field. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3148/jason-heyward#ixzz3tlMJYrH7
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 8, 2015 17:25:20 GMT -5
I forgot you played fantasy baseball last season. Clearly you are the expert here, more so than I or Bochy who plugged Duffy into the 3rd spot most of last season.
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Post by Rog on Dec 9, 2015 0:57:25 GMT -5
I forgot you played fantasy baseball last season. Clearly you are the expert here, more so than I or Bochy who plugged Duffy into the 3rd spot most of last season. Rog -- Especially after all the injuries they suffered, the Giants were weak with regard to #3 hitters. Of the players they had available, Matt was a good choice. I occasionally point out things I learned from playing fantasy baseball. I didn't learn a whole lot from it, but I took on a new experience, I did learn a few things. I'm not saying that I'm a bigger expert on Duffy than you and Boly are. What I would say though is that I clearly knew more about how Matt hit against southpaws and righties than you guys did. I thought I posted that info here before, but I'm not sure of it. A couple of reasons why Heyward in particular is often better than Duffy with men on. The second one will likely blow your mind. I suspect you already knew that Matt hits into far more double plays than either Heyward. Talk about a rally killer. Here's the one you guys had no idea of. I know you guys like productive outs. Heyward had the 2nd-most productive outs of any player in the major leagues last season. You guys had no idea, did you? I myself was surprised. Matt himself finished tied for 12th. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3148/jason-heyward#ixzz3tnajbEQR
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