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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 30, 2015 16:07:02 GMT -5
I caught a few minutes of Baseball Tonight on the MLB channel, and Todd Ziele, and Dave Valle were discussing the Giants.
Ziele contends that the Giants are the "quickest fix" to win the NL this year because most of the pieces to win it all, are already in place.
Both he and Valle, and the other guy.. Joe Magrane(L) contend the Giants MUST sign one of the top tier guys, AND either a Pfister or a Leake because, in their words, "the back end of the rotation is set."
They liked all of the every day players, and didn't feel we need to go out and get a big bat.
And I must agree, it was nice to hear someone outside of the organization, or NOT a SF beat writer say what I, and others, have been saying for a long time.
boly
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 1, 2015 1:14:13 GMT -5
Todd Zeile, Joe Magrane & Dave Valle
World Series rings combined: zero
Brian Sabean & Bobby Evans
World Series rings combined: 6
Who do you think knows more about building a Championship roster?
I think I'd have to lean towards Sabes and Evans.
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Post by rxmeister on Dec 1, 2015 10:41:11 GMT -5
Either way, what they're saying is right and we've all said it too. With Zimmerman gone, we really need to add Greinke or Price, and I read from Heyman that we're in on Cueto too. We can also trade, and I'm looking forward to the winter meetings next week.
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Post by Rog on Dec 1, 2015 10:57:15 GMT -5
Good point about trade possibilities, Mark. I've seen rumors regarding Julio Tehran of the Braves and Carlos Carrasco of the Indians (neither directly related to the Giants, but certainly possibilities). I've been thinking that trading might be their method of acquiring an outfielder.
It came back to me last night that regarding outfielders there must have been some true significance to the Giants' not exercising Nori Aoki's inexpensive $4.8 million option for 2015. Clearly they felt the need for flexibility was highly important. That flexibility might have included:
. The money to go in on a top free agent pitcher, particularly Price or Greinke, since those will almost certainly be the most expensive. (A side note: Had a discussion with a very knowledgeable sports fan who is a Red Sox fan, and he mentioned that the Red Sox might be willing to to go $40 million per season for Price. I think he must have meant $30 million, but the point is that they might be formidable players.)
. The need for a player to play center field, which would mean improving the defense by moving Angel Pagan to left field. Aoki seemed a very viable and inexpensive option for left field. The Giants appear to still view him as a backup option, but they'll almost certainly pay quite a bit more to re-sign him than they would have paid by exercising the option.
The decision NOT to exercise Aoki's option despite indications he is healthy shows something, something important. I'm not precisely sure what it is.
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 1, 2015 11:23:19 GMT -5
Here's my prediction.
We don't sign ANY top tier pitcher.
Not a one.
What we'll end up with is what Randy's been complaining about all along; we'll go on the cheap and sign the likes of Leake and Pfister ONLY.
It's not a lock, but it's the closest thing to a lock that I'd be willing to put money on.
boly
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 1, 2015 11:31:45 GMT -5
Mark- Either way, what they're saying is right and we've all said it too. With Zimmerman gone, we really need to add Greinke or Price, and I read from Heyman that we're in on Cueto too. We can also trade, and I'm looking forward to the winter meetings next week.
Boagie- But that's not what they're saying. They're saying we need a top notch AND a mediocre pitcher. I agree we need a solid guy for our #2 spot in the rotation, and I won't be happy with anyone less than Greinke. But do we need another pitcher as well? I'd rather have Heston or Blackburn in the rotation.
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Post by Rog on Dec 1, 2015 16:04:43 GMT -5
Having a 2nd-tier pitcher would be a safer bet than either Heston or Blackburn. The question becomes one of cost.
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 1, 2015 16:28:52 GMT -5
The question isn't so much the cost of that pitcher, but the cost of the other pitcher. As I've always said, if they are determined to get two pitchers it's very likely neither one will be Greinke or Price. If they forget about the second pitcher and roll the dice on Heston or Blackburn, or a combination of both, they can easily pay what Greinke or Price want, and have some leftover to upgrade in left field. I think that's the smarter move.
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sfgdood
Long time member 
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 2, 2015 1:44:51 GMT -5
The bottom line is the odds of landing a top tier pitcher just reduced in recent days by 50%. The Giants have already shown that they suck at landing top FAs so reducing the odds just makes it that much of a longshot. Without a severe upgrade in the rotation, this team has none chance, as Kuip would say, to make it back to the playoffs. It pisses me off that the sense of urgency is higher with other teams but not us.
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Post by Rog on Dec 2, 2015 4:05:23 GMT -5
Boagie makes a very good point here. Would the Giants be better off with Greinke and Heston or Blackburn, or with say Cueto and Leake? I would probably say Cueto and Leake, but it's not that simple.
As Boagie points out, if the Giants signed Greinke only, they might save close to $10 million per season. That might allow them to sign say Alex Gordon instead of say Gerardo Parra. Would we rather have Greinke, Heston/Blackburn and Gordon -- or Cueto, Leake and Parra?
One argument would have us believe that Greinke is more of a sure bet than Cueto. Another would show us that Cueto has been the more consistent of the two over the past five seasons and is two years younger than Greinke.
The final answer to our question may lie with how good Heston or Blackburn can become. There is evidence that Heston overachieved in 2015. On the flip side, Blackburn led the hitter-heavy Pacific Coast League in ERA. Both Heston and Blackburn showed improvement last season. Will either or both be able to maintain it?
One argument would be that neither Blackburn nor Blackburn would be expected to be in the Giants' postseason rotation. The other side would argue that if a pitcher in the rotation stumbled, the Giants might benefit in the postseason from having Leake as a piece of the rotation rather than Heston or Blackburn.
The Giants' decision will likely come down to price and scouting. How much will these free agents cost? And what do the Giants' scouts think of Greinke's chance to age like Greg Maddux and for either Heston or Blackburn to pitch reasonably well?
I haven't studied this closely enough to form a viable opinion on the matter. I will say that Boagie's point all along that Heston or Blackburn could be a viable rotation piece, allowing the Giants to spend money elsewhere -- presumably the outfield -- looks stronger and stronger the more I look at it.
Whether I wind up agreeing with Boagie or not, I like his thinking here. He's taken a very realistic approach to the situation, actually DECREASING the amount that would be spent on the rotation. I have a feeling that the Giants would prefer Boagie's route -- except that they have said they need two starters, not one.
So other than not knowing which position the Giants would prefer to go and which one I myself would prefer, I'm right on top of the situation!
Signing Greinke would make the bigger splash -- especially if it also allowed the Giants to sign one of the top outfielders. Would we be happier six years from now? With Greinke, that might be the $190 million question.
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Post by Rog on Dec 2, 2015 4:12:03 GMT -5
Without a severe upgrade in the rotation, this team has none chance Rog -- That is not a true statement. It is a statement that almost COULDN'T be true. Put another way, it has virtually none chance of being true. That the Giants' chances of landing one of the top two pitchers is now cut in half may not be true either, if Greinke has been their top target. There are signs that Greinke could come down to the Giants or Dodgers. At that point it could come down to whether the Dodgers' desire to cut payroll or their desire to sign one of the top pitchers takes precedent. It may also depend on how the two teams view both Cueto and their chances of signing him if they lose out on Greinke. It is said that the Greinke decision will likely come by the end of the week, so the good news may be that our waiting time will be much shorter than it could have been. Clearly it's the result we desire far more than the time frame. As for the wait, is it more pressure or excitement? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3142/baseball-tonight?page=1#ixzz3t9WYPbWS |
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Post by Rog on Dec 2, 2015 4:14:26 GMT -5
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Post by Rog on Dec 2, 2015 4:17:26 GMT -5
The Giants have already shown that they suck at landing top FAs Rog -- Actually, they have shown that they had poor results last winter. We don't know whether they sucked at it or whether they were unlucky (which might actually turn out to be LUCKY in the long run). What we don't yet know is whether they currently suck at it, which is what matters more. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3142/baseball-tonight?page=1#ixzz3t9YrIav8 |
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Post by Rog on Dec 2, 2015 4:20:16 GMT -5
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 2, 2015 12:53:46 GMT -5
Rog- Boagie makes a very good point here. Would the Giants be better off with Greinke and Heston or Blackburn, or with say Cueto and Leake? I would probably say Cueto and Leake, but it's not that simple.
Boagie- I might prefer Cueto and Leake, that would give us a solid rotation. But they won't get both. If they go two it'll be Samardzija and Fister, or Leake and Kennedy or some combination of a decent pitcher and a pitcher that was good 5 years ago. So with that in mind, compare the numbers of Samardzija, Foster, and Kennedy to that of Heston. Why waste the money when we have someone better already?
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 2, 2015 13:21:25 GMT -5
As far as left field goes, we have two solid corner outfield prospects, Hunter Pence will retire a Giant, he's too loved by the fans and the team for it not to end up that way. I doubt the Giants are going to log jam left field long term when we have Williamson and Parker ready to take that next step. If the Giants get a FA to play LF it will probably be on a short contract. I don't think the idea of bringing back Byrd on a 1 year deal is off the table.
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Post by Rog on Dec 2, 2015 14:42:21 GMT -5
As far as left field goes, we have two solid corner outfield prospects, Hunter Pence will retire a Giant, he's too loved by the fans and the team for it not to end up that way. I doubt the Giants are going to log jam left field long term when we have Williamson and Parker ready to take that next step. If the Giants get a FA to play LF it will probably be on a short contract. I don't think the idea of bringing back Byrd on a 1 year deal is off the table. Rog -- That was very well thought out, Boagie. I'm sure the Giants do feel better about left field after 2016 than they do about center. I'm not sold on Parker, but between him, Williamson and Blanco, the Giants could likely scrabble together something that would be decent. Kelby Tomlinson might also enter the left field picture. Kelby might also become a possibility in center field. I would extend Blanco though to provide another resource. There again, a platoon might be possible. What the Giants really need is a good center fielder. I'm a little more optimistic about Angel Pagan's bat than some here, but there is little question he is a declining fielder in covering the center green. Man, if Jason Heyward were a right-handed hitter who could play center field, I think I would rather have him than even Zack Greinke. That said, I wonder if Heyward COULD play center. Probably not, or he'd already be there. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3142/baseball-tonight#ixzz3tC4rGgm0 |
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 3, 2015 15:14:28 GMT -5
The Giants have already shown that they suck at landing top FAs
Rog -- Actually, they have shown that they had poor results last winter. We don't know whether they sucked at it or whether they were unlucky (which might actually turn out to be LUCKY in the long run). What we don't yet know is whether they currently suck at it, which is what matters more.
Dood - why is everything about luck with you? The Giants got lucky to win their titles, they got Unlucky with respect to FAs...look, I give credit where it's due and I put blame where it is deserved. I don't give Sabean/Evans a pass on missing out on the FAs they pursued. There needs to be a better concerted effort at landing the fish...just sticking your hook in the water isn't good enough.
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Post by Rog on Dec 4, 2015 2:32:54 GMT -5
why is everything about luck with you?
Rog -- When has ANYONE ever said that everything is about luck? You seem to read into statements whatever you want to read into them.
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Post by Rog on Dec 4, 2015 2:38:05 GMT -5
The Giants got lucky to win their titles, they got Unlucky with respect to FAs. Rog -- It's pretty clear both things are the case. Even the Giants announcers -- whom some here consider to be homers almost to the point of being shills -- have said the Giants were a bit lucky in 2014. Would you REALLY expect a team with Travis Ishikawa in left field and Gregor Blanco to win the World Championship? Would you expect a team with only one good starter to do so? As for the free agency thing, I have read/heard from more than one source that the Giants actually made the top monetary offer to Jon Lester, but he preferred not to play on the West Coast. The Giants were probably lucky though that he DIDN'T sign with them. We all know what a disaster it appears signing Pablo Sandoval would have been, but if the Giants still want James Shields, he's available on the trade market -- and the Padres will likely have to eat salary to deal him. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3142/baseball-tonight?page=1#ixzz3tKqFufPV |
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Post by Rog on Dec 4, 2015 2:40:19 GMT -5
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Post by Rog on Dec 4, 2015 2:44:40 GMT -5
There needs to be a better concerted effort at landing the fish...just sticking your hook in the water isn't good enough. Rog -- Once again it appears you don't know what you're talking about. A 7/$178 offer to Jon Lester was only sticking a hook into the water? If the money doesn't impress you, how about the visits to Lester by Buster Posey and Bruce Bochy? Jake Peavy too IIRC. I don't think the Giants are going to land Zack Greinke either. If the Dodgers are willing to go 6/$210 as has been indicated by Jon Heyman, I don't think they SHOULD sign him. But did you know that Greinke came to San Francisco and had a 3 1/2 hour meeting with the Giants' brass and Bochy? Didn't think so. Apparently you were out at the bait shop. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3142/baseball-tonight?page=1#ixzz3tKs72q9h |
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 4, 2015 12:48:30 GMT -5
I did not hear about Greinke's meeting in SF. I'm glad to hear they are trying to do something different because they're FA strategy obviously needed tweaking. There comes a point where your methods or your GM have to shoulder blame for missing out on the top prizes. It isn't about luck...it's about who is willing to go that extra mile for the good of the team.
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 4, 2015 13:11:05 GMT -5
Rog -- Once again it appears you don't know what you're talking about. A 7/$178 offer to Jon Lester was only sticking a hook into the water? If the money doesn't impress you, how about the visits to Lester by Buster Posey and Bruce Bochy? Jake Peavy too IIRC.
Boagie- I agree with you, Rog, on the fact that the Giants have tried to land these guys. But Randy brings up a good point, either on purpose or accidentally. If the Giants are putting up the money, why can't they land anyone? What are they doing wrong? Those are good questions.
Here's my theory on why certain players chose not to sign with the Giants.
Pablo - I think Pablo wanted to feel like he had all the control again. He didn't want to have the Giants looking over his shoulder the whole time, telling him not to eat the Twinkie. The Giants were right to include that in his contract, because you saw what happens when you let Pablo be his own boss.
Jon Lester- I think Lester wants to win, but he wants to win on a stage where he's the hero. On the Giants he'd just be a hired gun on a roster that has already a slew of World Series rings. If he helps Chicago win a World Series, parents would name their kids after him. Little leaguers would be wanting to wear his uniform number, and he'd never have to pay for a meal in Chicago. Of course, I can't read Lester's mind, but I think those differences were the deciding factor.
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Post by Rog on Dec 5, 2015 4:54:07 GMT -5
It is said the Giants and Dodgers both lost out on Zack Greinke because of the California income tax. We shouldn't forget that there can be many factors that enter into why a player decides to choose the specific place out of the 30 choices he theoretically has to play in.
All other factors being equal (which they aren't), the Giants should expect to sign one out of every 30 free agents they desire.
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