Another Player the Giants May Have Been Saved From

[Rog]

A year ago yesterday the Arizona Diamondbacks signed one of the high-profile free agents or international players the Giants had been linked with.  Yasmany Tomas spent much of last season hitting over .300, yet he never showed the power that has been expected from him.  He wound up hitting only .273/.706 and was a defensive liability in the outfield and particularly at third base.  Tomas is now expected to get at bats against southpaws, since both Ender Inciarte and David Peralta are lefty-hitting corner outfielders for Arizona, but the $68 million the Diamondbacks paid for Tomas is now looking like a bad deal for what may be essentially a platoon player on the short end of the platoon.

One could possibly argue for the contracts of Jon Lester (6/$155) or James Shields (4/$75), but at the very least the Giants appear to have avoided potential debacles in Pablo Sandoval (5/$95) and Tomas (6/$68.5).

To put into perspective those four contracts thus far, the quartet wound up being signed for a combined $74 million per season.  Last season their WAR's were 3.1 (Lester), 1.9 (Shields), minus 0.9 (Sandoval) and minus 1.3 (Tomas), for combined WAR of 3 wins.  That's $25 million per win, which helps show us why one win on the free agent market is now valued at over $8 million.

What is most alarming about how poorly that quartet of potential Giants fared is that it came in the first year of contracts averaged five years in length.  With free agents usually late in or just passing their primes, the early years of a long-term contract are expected to be the case.  Only Tomas at age 25 would still be considered to be in his prime.  In Tomas' case, he is perhaps just entering it.

The free agent market is fraught with peril.  The Giants are caught in a position where they almost HAVE to chase the top free agents, but they also need to learn from history.  As Larry Baer said, the history for successful free agent starters of more than five years is pretty much a "null set."

Here is an irony we should keep in mind:  If the Giants sign the player or players we want them to sign, the signing may very well not work out well.  And if they sign players we are less enthralled with, those deals might work out better.

 Because pre-free-agency players are paid less -- sometimes many times less -- than they are worth, the few free agents are considerably overpaid -- especially the top ones.  The Giants are being more or less forced to bid into an overpriced free agent market.  If they can avoid merely being burned, they actually will have fared reasonably well, comparatively.

We each have in mind the players we'd like to see the Giants sign, but what is most important isn't how we feel about their signings this winter, but how we feel a year from now and how we feel five years down the road.

I hope I'm really excited with the players the Giants acquire this winter.  I hope five years from now I am even more excited-er.

[sfgdood]

Until we make the playoffs again, the being "saved from" arguments are a joke.

[Islandboagie]

Good point about Tomas, Rog. Just another player to add to the list of weak players our liberal spending Giants fans were eager to lock up last winter. If even a few of those moves were made the Giants would have had their hands tied for a number of years.

[rxmeister]

Agree about Tomas, but you have to remember his age and the fact that although the years (six) are high, it's roughly 11 million per year so it's not that outrageous an amount. He had a disappointing season, but it's not like he can't play.

[klaiggeb]

A lot of our fans may have been clamoring for Tomas last year, but I was not one of them.

I believe at the time I referenced Oswaldo Fernandez (?); That UNTIL he did it in the show, just because they had big numbers in other leagues doesn't mean those same numbers translate to MLB.

In fact, including Tomas, a number of those Cuban players have not turned into the pot-'O-gold so many fans were predicting.


And I haven't even mentioned throwing the selfish Puig into the equation.

boly

[Rog]

Until we make the playoffs again, the being "saved from" arguments are a joke.


Rog -- There is good news and bad news had the Giants signed Pablo Sandoval.

The good news is that with Pablo playing instead of Matt Duffy, the Giants would be estimated to have won six fewer games. How can that be good news, you ask? The Giants would have a higher draft choice and would be less likely to lose it in the free agency process.

The bad news would outweigh (sorry guys) that, however. The Giants would have $19 million or so less in their budget this off-season and thus wouldn't be seriously be bidding on Zack Greinke, which of course would have the benefit mentioned above of not being as likely to lose their draft choice as compensation for signing a tendered player.



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[Rog]

Agree about Tomas, but you have to remember his age and the fact that although the years (six) are high, it's roughly 11 million per year so it's not that outrageous an amount. He had a disappointing season, but it's not like he can't play.


Rog -- The Tomas story is far from told yet, and he could still hit with the power he was projected for. That his average remained above .300 for so long might also give hope that he might rise above the comparatively low batting average projected for him. After all, he's only 25. Three factors weigh against him though.

First, it would be nice if Boly could tell us what Dr. Strangeglove would be en Espanol. Tomas would fit that description nicely, whether as a corner outfielder or particularly at third base. Tomas's best defensive position is clearly designated hitter.

Second, Tomas's expected power didn't come close to materializing despite his playing in a hitters' park last season. Despite over 400 at bats, he didn't reach double figures in home runs (9).

Third, and this is truly a concern, he walked only 17 times in those 400+ at bats. That limited his base accumulation rate to .587 bases per out. To show how that would have fit in with the Giants, it was between the .542 of Justin Maxwell and the .604 in Andrew Susac's very disappointing season.

It appears that even at his best, Tomas will make too many outs and record too few. If he shows more of his power potential, he might wind up in the American League. If not, he could wind up as a footnote.

As an aside on the bases per outs metric for hitters, Brandon Belt has been blasted here, but he led the Giants at .828. Buster Posey ranked 2nd at .808, while Joe Panik was close behind at .808. Gregor Blanco has taken some hits here in the past, but he was fourth at .756.

Since a batter attempts to accumulate bases while avoiding making outs, I would be intrigued to hear of some of the weaknesses in the metric of bases per out. I can think of at least one, but overall I think it's a pretty good and rarely mentioned metric.

Incidentally, as I have defined it (at bats, minus hits, plus double plays, plus sacrifice hits, plus sacrifice flies divided into total bases, plus walks, plus hit by pitch, plus sacrifice hits plus sacrifice flies), it covers only batting, not batting plus base stealing or batting plus total base running. Those are important numbers as well when considering total offense, not just hitting.




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[Rog]

I believe at the time I referenced Oswaldo Fernandez


Rog -- Fernandez's primary pitching problem was arm problems. There was also some question as to his actual age.

As for Tomas, the scouting report on him indicated 25 home run power but little ability to hit for average, reach base or field. The Cuban I really hoped the Giants would sign was 20-year-old Moncada, signed instead by the Red Sox. Moncada is ranked one of the top middle infield prospects in the game, and landed on the cover of Baseball America.

He hit only .278 this past season in Low A ball, but he posted a .820 OPS and stole 49 bases in 52 attempts. He's probably a couple of years from the majors, but he certainly would have looked good in a 2017 Giants uniform. The Giants were looking for more immediate help though.




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[klaiggeb]

Rog-First, it would be nice if Boly could tell us what Dr. Strangeglove would be en Espanol

***boly says***

Colloquialisms don't translate into other languages because each language has their own.

But literally, he could be called "Senor guante extrano," (I can't make the tildes, squiggles, (En-Yay) above the Nn's? on AOL) or more simply "Senor Error." Both work.

boly

[rxmeister]

Remember when Tomas' agent said he had more power than Jose Abreu? Didn't quite live up to the hype, did he? Speaking of Puig, he added to his despicable resume with a bar room brawl in Miami where he's accused of hitting his sister and sucker punching one of the bar workers. Police are investigating and the Dodgers have got to be beyond frustrated with him.

[Rog]

What might be called the 3rd-tier free agent starting pitching market is beginning to be established. Marco Estrada re-signed with the Blue Jays for 2/$26, and Toronto just signed J.A. Happ for 3/$36. Both players revitalized their value last season, with Happ doing it in the last two months or so of the season.

Anyone have thoughts on Kenta Maeda? The 27-year-old pitcher has posted a 97-67 record with a 2.39 ERA over 1509 innings in 8 seasons of Japanese ball. Because of his low strikeout rate (7.4/9), Maeda is considered a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher, but his 7.5/9 hit rate and 1.9 BB/9 walk rate could show more. Maeda has allowed just 36 homers the past four seasons, and limited opponents to just five in 2015. Maeda's highest ERA over the past six seasons was 2.60 in 2014.

Spotrac.com has projected the value of several free agents based on contacts to similar players. Note that these are values, not expected contracts.

Here are some of the starting pitchers with years and dollars:

Cueto 6/$165
Price 6/$164
Zimmermann 6/$124
Greinke 4/$105

Iwakuma 4/$59


Other pitchers with only $/Yr. given:

Leake $14/Yr
Kazmir $14/Yr
Happ $14/Yr (Actual contract 3/$36)
Estrada $14/Yr (Actual contract 2/$26)
Chen $12/Yr
Lackey $11/Yr


Outfielders in years and dollars:

Cespedes 6/$116
Upton 7/$112
Heyward 5/$76
Gordon 4/$60
Zobrist 3/$46
Span 3/$34
Rios 2/$31
Aoki 2/$22
Byrd 2/$20

And outfielders listed only per season:

Parra $8/Yr.


Again, those are values, not expected contracts. I found Cueto to be a big surprise, as well as Aoki.

Price and Cueto were both compared to Scherzer, Verlander and Hamels. Price's fourth comparison was Lester, while Cueto's was Cain (back at the time of Matt's latest contract). Aoki was compared to Seth Smith, Curtis Granderson and Coco Crisp.

Aoki's valuation strongly backs up Boly's plan to have exercised Aoki's option and strongly suggests he should have been extended. I believe the Giants wanted the flexibility to go after a center fielder via free agency or trade, which could point toward Span or possibly Parra.'

It can be a good idea to look for players coming off down seasons, which would be the case with Cueto and Zimmermann, for instance. Cueto in particular received a very high value given his down season in 2015. It does point to a player's value though when a 3.44 ERA and 1.13 WHIP are considered down seasons.

Zimmermann is being recommended elsewhere for his consistency and control. Greinke is being compared to Greg Maddux in that his stuff and command should translate to good performances throughout much of his 30's.

It depends on contract length and amount, of course, but Cueto and Price are my favorites at present.

[Rog]

Saw another projection of Greinke's value at 6/$153. Zack's velocity fell off more than a mph in 2015, but clearly he was easily able to perform at a very high level.

[rxmeister]

I think those numbers are way off, Rog, no offense to your source. Cueto worth more than Price and Greinke? Aoki and Byrd worth more than Parra? Both ex Giants have major red flags, one because of age and one because of injuries and they're projected to make much more than last year? Gordon worth more than Zobrist? Teams (including the Giants) are falling all over themselves for Zobrist right now.

[Rog]

I wasn't suggesting the values being projected were ones I agree with, but I thought they were worth looking at. Zobrist is a nice outfield option, although his versatility might help other teams more than it would help the Giants. Gordon is a very good fielder who I believe is a former first overall draft pick. He might have more potential he could still tap. He's 31 though, so that seems unlikely at this point.

I've never been a huge fan, and I certainly thought he should have busted his triple against the Giants in game 7 more than he did, but his value has been increased by his fielding. He dropped off in the field last season though, so he's probably past his defensive prime.

I keep thinking that the Giants either want a top outfielder (which Zobrist is a cut below) or a center fielder (which Zobrist isn't). Ben fits the Giants in that he gets on base, but he's also 34 years old. I've liked him for a long time, but I wonder if he isn't nearing a slow-down point.

LOTS of candidates out there this winter though. It's a good time to be shopping with a full pocket.