Would we take this contract?

[Rog]

Intriguing discussion on the Gary and Larry show on KNBR just now.  They played the game, "would you take this guy at this contract?"  The contracts are based on estimate that is supposed to be a good source.  Remember, Larry believes the Giants have $50 million per year to spend.  See what you think of each of these contracts.  I have put in the consensus of Gary and Larry.


David Price -- 7/$213.5          No

Zack Greinke -- 6/$186          No

Johnny Cueto -- 6/$132         No

Jordan Zimmermann -- 6/$120  No

Justin Upton -- 6/$120         No

Yoenis Cespedes -- 6/$126    Yes

John Lackey -- 2/$30           Yes

Scott Kazmir -- 4/$60           No

Alex Gordon -- 5/$90            Yes



They went on to discuss more players, but I had to move on (and be able to remember all the projected salaries).  Personally, I like the Cueto deal the best.  Then Price.  Then Lackey, Cespedes and Gordon.

They hadn't gotten to Mike Leake when I needed to move on , but let's go with the 5/$80 I've seen.  That means the Giants could afford Cueto and Leake (former teammates) and possibly Gerardo Parra for the outfield.  Certainly Nori Aoki should fit into the salary structure.

The Giants would be tying their future to Cueto, Leake, Bumgarner, Posey, Belt, Panik, Crawford, Duffy and probably Parra if they went that direction.  They would need to have at least two of the three contracts work out acceptably -- and the history of long-term contracts for pitchers isn't good.

A few other names I like (depending on price) are Iwakuma and Chen.  I strongly believe the Giants are going after one of the big boys, probably a pitcher.  Would that be a good move?  Certainly risky.  I could see Cueto or Price.  I'm not seeing Greinke or Zimmermann.

If the Giants sign say Leake and Lackey, it obviously won't be well received, although the sting could be less if they also signed Cespedes or Gordon.

We should think this over closely, and let's see what we think.  Please, no "The Giants should spend much more; they can afford it" stuff.  If the Giants spend considerably more than $50 million, I'm  confident they can come up with something good.  That's not all that much of a challenge.

Getting it right even on $50 million IS a challenge.  What would WE do?

[klaiggeb]

Not hard to see how their show was slanted, Rog. They want offense at the expense of pitching.

Here's my responses to their "no's."

Zack Greinke -- 6/$186 No---************Oh my God, yes! In a heartbeat! What the heck are you two thinking!**************

Johnny Cueto -- 6/$132 No*************Probably a NO for me, too. At 6 years I wouldn't do it. Not with Cueto's arm history.

Jordan Zimmermann -- 6/$120 No*********Yes. In a NY heartbeat I'd do this deal.*********************

boly

[Islandboagie]

I was listening to the same show this morning, I believe Radnich actually ended by saying he'd do the Price deal but he had a sort of sarcastic tone about it. He usually develops animosity towards anyone making that type of money for playing a sport. His dislike for Barry Zito and his contract was well documented.

But I don't pay much attention to what either one says about baseball. Both have a brand of shock jock sports radio, and both are more in tune with football and basketball, and often on the collegiate level.

I agree with Boly. It's not my money, so do I want Greinke in the Giants rotation? Hell yes.

[rxmeister]

Rog, you may not be seeing Greinke, but every rumor I've heard has the Giants as the favorite at this point. The latest rumor I've heard in fact has the Dodgers making Jordan Zimmerman their number one target, which makes me think they believe Greinke and Price are headed elsewhere. I always discount the effect of chemistry on a team's performance but it's certainly a factor considered by free agents when they sign. Andy Van Slyke (using son Scott as his source) said that Clayton Kershaw went to management and asked them to trade Yasiel Puig for the good of the team. The Dodgers supposedly told him no, as they need his bat and his trade value is low coming off a bad year. However, I can perfectly understand a free agent like Greinke would want to get out of there and go to a team where everybody likes each other, and there's a manager who's highly respected. Let's see what happens, but at this point I'll be surprised if Greinke returns to LA.

[sfgdood]

Gary and Larry should be renamed Dumb and Dumber

[Islandboagie]

Why Van Slyke would leak that to the media while putting his own son in a very uncomfortable place is beyond me.

Van Slyke also recently made some very disparaging remarks about Robinson Cano (which I can't say I totally disagree with.) I understand the dislike of Puig and Cano, but at the same time he's negatively effecting a lot of other people, including his own career as a future major league coach. Kinda makes you think back to his Pirates days and the clash with Barry Bonds.

Mark, as for your take on the Greinke situation, I couldn't agree more. It's said that Greinke has some anxiety issues and the Giants clubhouse could be exactly what he is looking for.

[Islandboagie]

Randy- Gary and Larry should be renamed Dumb and Dumber

Boagie- That's not fair at all, Randy. Loyd and Harry aren't THAT stupid.

[rxmeister]

Yeah, I disagree with most of what they said. I'd pretty much say yes to all those deals for the top pitchers except maybe Cueto, and I might say yes to that if he's the only top choice left. How do you say no to Upton but yes to Cespedes at an even higher number? I would yes to both. I would say no to Lackey (although the Giants are interested) no to Kazmir at four years for sure and no to Alex Gordon although he seems to be the type of player they like. He'd be fourth on my list behind those two and Heyward.

[klaiggeb]

A night or two ago, on the MLB channel, they were discussing the Dodger clubhouse and how Dave Roberts was going to "manage" it.

They didn't say anything specific, but the implication was... "it ain't good."

Then you read the comments from EVERY player who comes to the Giants, the culture, the clubhouse, the minor league system and what they teach/preach, and it's all outstanding.

Mac and Arroyo commented on it after their AFL championship win, and how they create a mentality at all levels and how solid it is.

The Dodger clubhouse obviously does not have that.

WE do, and I believe that, at least in part, it's because of the type of player we get in FA, or trade for, or sign in the first place.

We may have only ( ) won 3 times in 6 years, but the clubhouse has been there for all 6 and, IMHO, it is one of the reasons we won in the first place.

boly

[Rog]

Zack Greinke -- 6/$186 No---************Oh my God, yes! In a heartbeat! What the heck are you two thinking!****


Rog -- Those who like Zack believe his stuff will survive the expected drop in velocity as he ages. Those who are perhaps more practical point out that if the Giants went all the way to the World Series in his final contract, he would turn 38 just prior to its end.

I am bothered by the length and height of the contract. It would be hard for a 32-year-old pitcher to be worth $186. Zack has been worth it over the past six seasons, but how about the coming half dozen?

I would rather spend an extra $30 million or so and get Price for an extra season.

Or $54 million less and get Cueto, whom I like better than Zimmermann because Johnny can be a dominant pitcher. Jordan's swing-through rate dropped 2% from his career high 10% in 2014, and it has been reported he lost a lot off his fastball in the second half (although his pitching troubles actually occurred earlier in the season, and he still average 93 mph).

Jordan gave up just over a hit per inning, which isn't ace-like at all. I realize he'd have to be only a #2 with the Giants, but how much better would he truly be than Mike Leake? Not that the Giants can't sign both, but I'm talking about value here. Despite its velocity, Jordan's fastball was actually a negative pitch in 2015.

I don't think it was bad luck that Jordan declined by a run from 2014 to 2015. He's not a horrible gamble at 6/$120, but I think Johnny Cueto will outpitch him by more than enough to justify the extra $12 million. For an extra $2 million per season, give me the guy who can dominate.

Cueto has finished 2nd and 4th in the MVP voting. Zimmermann has finished 5th and 7th. Most recently, in 2014 Cueto finished 2nd, with Zimmermann 5th.

I also see some things I like better in Zimmermann, who is indeed a master of control. Perhaps that would indicate less of a drop off over the course of the contract. It's hard to ignore though how well Cueto has pitched with Cincinnati as his home park. That said, he's actually pitched half a run better at home than on the road.

Maybe I'll just go back to Greinke! Not yet, though.


Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3138/contract#ixzz3sbxtNEnr

[Rog]

Nice sarcasm with regard to the Dumb and Dumber "brothers," Boagie. You know as soon as you saw the remark who had posted it, right? I'm not sure what happened to Allen, but my thanks go out to Randy for replacing him as the board grouch.

[sfgdood]

I kinda miss Allen. I'm happy to be a grouch among such an excellent Pollyanna as Rog

[rxmeister]

Rog a Pollyanna? Do you know how many years we were happy and excited about the Giants coming out of spring training only for Rog to tell us we were going to stink? The last thing Rog is is a Pollyanna. You've even taken to calling him a Dodger fan the last couple of years because he keeps saying they have a better team than us.

[sfgdood]

Actually I called him a Dodgers fan because he always roots for them in the playoffs. Yeah I guess he's more of a management Shill than a true Pollyanna

[Rog]

I would like to make yet another shillish comment. Giants' management really lucked out when they were unable to re-sign Pablo Sandoval. Offering a contract close to $100 million to Pablo was a big mistake. The Giants were their own worst enemies on that one.