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Post by Rog on Nov 24, 2015 9:38:42 GMT -5
MLB Trade Rumors analyzed the possible contract extension for Brandon Belt. Remember that Brandon Crawford just extended for 6/$75. MLBTR estimates that Belt's value would be 6/$83-85 but that given his concussion issues, the Giants would likely try for a contract similar to Crawford's. MLBTR thinks that would be a significant discount for Belt to take.
Maybe the two sides could get together at something like 6/$80? One issue in extending Belt for the same duration as Crawford is that the two contracts would of course be compared. That is something that shouldn't matter, but it could. One would think Crawford's seemingly mellow personality would make it less likely.
If he were to be traded, MLBTR pegged Belt's value as a "young MLB contributor and further prospect value or at least a top 50ish prospect and some not-insignificant second-tier pieces." Since the Giants seem highly unlikely to move Buster Posey to first base at this time, the question if Belt were traded would be who would play first base? The Giants almost certainly would need to trade for or sign a free agent first baseman, and the number of first basemen who would be available and as good as or better than Belt would seem to be few.
Chris Davis is available on the free agent market, although he will be quite expensive. Freddie Freeman of the Braves is said to be available in trade, but he is making $118.5 million over the next four seasons, and the Giants might not have the prospects necessary for such a trade.
Trading Belt may not make a lot of sense unless he is a significant health risk (concussions). One would assume other teams would identify that risk as well, although the grass is often greener on the other side of the fence, which might affect another team's judgment of the situation and the risk they would be willing to take.
For now, we should probably be excited that the Giants might have the best (fairly) young infield in baseball. If one includes catcher in the infield definition, I can't think of another team that would outrank the Giants in that area.
Now if they could just build their outfield up. And their starting rotation! And their starting rotation! And their (say it now)!
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Post by rxmeister on Nov 24, 2015 9:54:48 GMT -5
I'd trade for Freddie Freeman in a heartbeat and move Belt to LF or I'd trade Belt and a prospect for Freeman. I love Belt but I looooove Freeman! That being said, I don't expect to happen so I'd give Belt an identical contract to Crawford, but without the no trade and a plate appearances clause to protect them from concussion problems down the road.
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Post by Rog on Nov 24, 2015 15:23:16 GMT -5
I don't know the particulars of Brandon Crawford's plate appearance clause, but wouldn't that be a fairly safe bet with Belt? If he's healthy enough to meet the appearance requirements, shouldn't that be OK.
What I read indicated that Belt probably wouldn't take the contract you mentioned. It is believed that Belt would have gotten more in arbitration than Crawford this winter, by a $6.2 to $5.7 margin. Brandon might well want to wait another year at Crawford's numbers, expecting to get much more if he stays healthy and puts up a good season in 2016. And then he would be only a year away from free agency, so he might want to wait that extra year and likely cash in big-time.
I like Freeman a lot too. The problem is that he uses up a lot of money. Let's say the Giants get Freeman for Belt and Arroyo. Freddie will cost $15 million more this season than Belt, meaning the Giants might have "only" $35 million per season left for the rotation and outfield. That would put a crimp in filling their top needs.
The Giants could play Belt in left field. He's not particularly good out there, but he shouldn't be horrible, and he does have a very strong arm. They might have to give up their two top pitching prospects and Arroyo to get that deal done. I would think it would take at least two of the three. That's a lot of future to give up, although I might be willing to do it.
But Belt in left field is worrisome. I'd try to lock him up for first base in a manner that might dovetail with moving Buster to first base. I'd LOVE Freeman, but I'm not sure he's a salary fit.
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 24, 2015 17:26:39 GMT -5
Rog- Let's say the Giants get Freeman for Belt and Arroyo.
Boagie- I've never been a huge supporter of Belt but that would be a poor trade on the Giants part. You put Belt in Atlanta for a full season he'd put up bigger numbers than Freeman ever put up, plus he has more speed and is better defensively AND you throw in our #1 prospect? No thanks.
That's not to say Freeman isn't a decent ballplayer, he is, but not to the extent that I'd want the Giants to take on more money, lose Belt and Arroyo in the process.
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 24, 2015 17:28:49 GMT -5
Belt anywhere on the field is worrisome to me, Rog, and that includes 1B.
He just has BRAIN DEAD MOMENTS ... more BDM's than other 1Bmen do, when he'll suddenly, and inexplicably do something idiotic.
I've watched him in the OF, and he's better than Ishi was, and I didn't think that Ishi was that bad. He was certainly better than Morse or Burrell out there.
Brandon is not my 1st choice in LF, but depending upon who plays 1B, it could work.
boly
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Post by rxmeister on Nov 24, 2015 22:16:11 GMT -5
Rog, I don't think you read my comments right there. Crawford doesn't have a plate appearances clause, but I was saying they should put one into Belt's contract.
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Post by rxmeister on Nov 24, 2015 22:18:25 GMT -5
I continue to be amazed at the way Boly and Dood exaggerate the number of bad plays Brandon Belt makes at first base. It's just a total mystery to me. I think you believe he makes more bad plays than he does because whenever he does make one you talk about it for a month!
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sfgdood
Long time member 
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Nov 25, 2015 1:47:19 GMT -5
it's not that he makes "bad plays", Rx...everyone makes mistakes. It's the plays where his head is somewhere between the left field bleachers and halfway up his ass.
As to the contract, the world has gone horribly mad when a guy like Belt is worth 80+ mil for 6 years
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 25, 2015 11:10:49 GMT -5
Randy said it perfectly, "everyone makes mistakes."
That's a given about all of us.
All of a sudden, he does something inexplicably stupid; Like he's never seen this situation before.
Like forget where he was, and just stand there.
Like watching rather than backing up a play that's routine and something he's been doing a hundred thousand times.
Every player has those "moments," but Brandon's "moments" seem to occur more than anyone else on the Giants
I like Brandon Belt. I loved when Kuip began calling him the Baby Giraffe!
But he simply does not have good, deeply rooted baseball instincts.
Disagree if you'd like, Mark, but that's what I see.
boly
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 25, 2015 13:09:26 GMT -5
Rog- Every player has those "moments," but Brandon's "moments" seem to occur more than anyone else on the Giants
Boagie- even Pagan? Nobody in baseball throws to the wrong base more than Pagan.
Belt makes a mental mistake once in a blue moon and you guys jump all over it.
I'll now inject a little reality to this conversation. Brandon Belt is a very very good defensive first baseman and he's only getting better. Yeah he has a brain fart once in a while, but the rest of his good plays make up for those few mistakes ten fold.
He has better footwork than JT Snow did and that's a big part of playing first base. Belt makes everyone on the infield better, not just with the throws he digs out, but the range he has. If it weren't for JT Snow, I'd say Belt is the best defensive first baseman I've seen in a Giants uniform, and he'd probably be in my discussion of best I've seen period.
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 25, 2015 20:45:19 GMT -5
Boagie, I never questioned that he wasn't a very good first baseman. He is!
But those brain farts, as you called them, happen more often than you believe.
I watch too much baseball, have played and coached too much baseball for them to go unnoticed by me, so we're going to have to disagree.
boly
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Post by donk33 on Nov 25, 2015 22:22:44 GMT -5
I continue to be amazed at the way Boly and Dood exaggerate the number of bad plays Brandon Belt makes at first base. It's just a total mystery to me. I think you believe he makes more bad plays than he does because whenever he does make one you talk about it for a month! dk...look how many negative posts there were after Crawford made an error and lost a game....there are very few players who escape the one bad play and done on this board..... |
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Post by rxmeister on Nov 26, 2015 8:21:57 GMT -5
Boagie's description of Belt is spot on, and he didn't even mention the strength and accuracy of Belt's arm, a true rarity in baseball. Did you see how Eric Hosmer scored the tying run in the ninth against the Mets and Lucas Duda? This is one of the reasons the Royals lost to us and beat them. Against the Giants he wouldn't have even tried it or would have been out by 20 feet
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Post by Rog on Nov 26, 2015 10:59:30 GMT -5
Rog, I don't think you read my comments right there. Crawford doesn't have a plate appearances clause, but I was saying they should put one into Belt's contract. Rog -- I did misunderstand. Thanks for straightening me out, Mark. My fiancee wants to know if you can come visit us for about a week and perhaps do a lot more. I don't think Brandon would accept an appearances clause. If Brandon has a strong, healthy year, he would be in a much stronger position a year from now, and a year after that he could be a free agent. I think the Giants need to decide if Brandon is worth the risk. If they believe he is, the time is now. It doesn't take much of a stretch to see Brandon as a $20 million per season free agent. It has also been written that the Giants might lock him up for the next two seasons for $15-$16 million. I think that would be a fool's errand, since it would leave him available to be a free agent two years from now, and Brandon isn't likely to cost much more than the $15-$16 million over his next two cost-controlled seasons anyway. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3137/comments-brandon-belts-contract-extension#ixzz3sc6WFbn5 |
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Post by Rog on Nov 26, 2015 11:04:57 GMT -5
Boagie is right on the money about Belt IMO. I think his mistakes have been blown out of proportion. We don't think his fine work the other 99% of the time makes up for them?
I think we sometimes get overly excited against players who don't meet our perfect picture of what a player should look like. To be honest, I think it's a prejudice that is usually based on how we saw OURSELVES as players.
Believe me, I like heady, hustling players and would like to think I was one myself. But I'm perhaps a little more tolerant of those who aren't perfect as we were. I can tell you that Belt's college coach surely thinks the world of him. I realize that's not the most objective source, but it should be a knowledgeable one.
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 26, 2015 11:36:51 GMT -5
You're all missing at least my main point. I can't speak for Randy, but you are all certainly missing mine.
I'm not talking about 'errors' or miscues on plays in the field.
That has NOTHING to do with my "brain dead" comments.
Nothing at all.
Brandon has soft hands and an excellent throwing arm.
His foot work is solid and so is his technique.
I LIKE him as our 1Bman so much so that I think he's a good enough athlete to play in the outfield if he had to.
I challenge all of you to watch him this season and watch him carefully.
Don't note his miscues, note the number of times he:
1-Goes to sleep in the field and does something goofy. The things I'm talking about I've NEVER, EVER seen Posey, Crawford, Duffy, Panik, or the Panda do.
2-Does something inexplicably stupid in the field
3-Fails to do something that is instinctual
And with that, I'm done with this topic until the season begins and THEN I'll point out the times he does these things.
boly
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 26, 2015 12:02:38 GMT -5
I've heard your main point loud and clear the whole time, Boly, Belt makes dumb mistakes in the field, I get it, I've seen it in fact. But I guess I haven't seen it as often as you or Randy suggest. I don't think it happens regularly enough, or in big game situation where it should be an issue, or an argument on the side of him being traded.
Honestly, his defense is a reason for him not to get traded, I think he's much dumber in the batter's box than he is at first base. If you want to replace Belt, replace him because he takes defensive cuts at pitches off the corner on 3-1 and 2-0 counts.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Nov 26, 2015 12:04:18 GMT -5
I don't know how many different ways we can explain it before they get it Boly. Physical errors are completely different from mentally checking out, which is what I see Belt doing numerous times. He just loses focus at critical times and there is absolutely NO excuse for it. I'm not going to shell out 80+ Mil for a guy who cannot maintain mental focus.
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 26, 2015 12:54:52 GMT -5
You were willing for the Giants to shell out that and more for Pablo who couldn't stay physically fit, and also had bouts of mental lapses in the infield. How many times did we see Pablo try to run down and tag runners in the base paths when there was an easy put out at first base? I can recall that happening numerous times.
And for God sakes, Randy and Boly, we get it! We just don't agree with the frequency of the lapses. I remember one last season when Belt stopped about 3 ft short of first base and caught the ball when he had plenty of time to get to the bag. But I don't remember many lapses beyond that. Normally Belt has pretty good instincts at where the ball needs to go and where he needs to be.
A few lapses shouldn't make or break a contract deal. Now, if Belt was also overweight and that weight issue caused him to have sub par seasons here and there then you'd have a very good argument at why he shouldn't get a big deal.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Nov 26, 2015 14:01:25 GMT -5
I guess we will see things differently on this one. Pablo did indeed have weight issues and made some errors in the field. But to my mind you still don't get it if you equate Pablo's physical errors with Belt's lack of mental focus.
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 26, 2015 14:08:47 GMT -5
With two outs, choosing to tag a baserunner when there's a force out somewhere isn't a physical one, it's a mental one.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Nov 26, 2015 15:19:16 GMT -5
that's debatable...but even still, it doesn't come close to forgetting to cover first base
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Post by Rog on Nov 27, 2015 12:39:52 GMT -5
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 27, 2015 13:41:00 GMT -5
Boagie-Honestly, his defense is a reason for him not to get traded,
***boly says***
And on that point, we do agree, Boagie.
Remember, I'm not a big fan of him being moved. I could live with it IF we got a quality CF in return AND they moved Posey to 1B... but other than that... no thanks.
boly
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Post by Rog on Nov 27, 2015 14:31:04 GMT -5
4You were willing for the Giants to shell out that and more for Pablo who couldn't stay physically fit Rog -- We said a year ago that we would rather have Brandon than Pablo. Although at his best, Pablo had been the better player (.330/.943 in 2009), Brandon was clearly the better player a year ago. Amazingly, Belt's OPS went around Pablo's last season when his .834 OPS topped Pablo's .658 by more than 175 points. Belt has easily been the more consistent fielder and despite occasional lapses on the bases, a better base runner. Sandoval has been caught stealing more than Belt, yet has just over a third as many steals. Sandoval has the higher career average (.288 to .271), but Belt leads in on-base percentage and slugging percentage. In summary, Sandoval has been the better average hitter, but Belt has more power, gets on base more frequently and is the better fielder and base runner. Sandoval started out as the better player, but has consistently declined from his .315/.909 2011 season. After a disappointing .718 OPS as a rookie, Belt has been the more consistent player, bothered mostly by health issues. The question with Sandoval is whether he will be able to bounce back from four years of decline. With Belt, it is whether he can bounce back from his recent concussion history. Sandoval will enter the second year of his 5/$95 million contract with the Red Sox. Belt is expected to earn about $6.2 million through arbitration with the Giants. The Giants are said to be considering a contract extension with Belt, much as they extended his teammate Brandon Crawford at 6/$75 million. Belt was projected in arbitration at $6.2 million compared to Crawford's $5.7 million projection, indicating Belt might receive a slightly higher contract than his fellow Brandon. Crawford is coming off a season in which many considered him the best shortstop in baseball, as was indicated by his receiving both the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Awards. Belt's .834 OPS was the second-highest of his career, but he also suffered a recurrence of a previous concussion injury. With the exception of Belt, the Giants now have their young core including Bumgarner, Posey, Crawford, Panik and Duffy under team control for at least five more seasons. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3137/comments-brandon-belts-contract-extension?page=1#ixzz3siaOPMH6 |
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Post by Rog on Nov 27, 2015 14:37:41 GMT -5
it doesn't come close to forgetting to cover first base Rog -- A first baseman's forgetting to cover his bag is indeed unimaginable. How does it compare with stepping off second base so the second baseman could dust off the bag -- only to be tagged out on the hidden-ball trick? How about cutting through the pitcher's mound in an effort to get back to first base after rounding the second-base bag? How about missing third base, being ruled out on appeal, and falling one run short of 100 runs scored? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3137/comments-brandon-belts-contract-extension?page=1#ixzz3sipq54zr |
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