How did I do? Well, okay, atcually

[klaiggeb]

Last February or March, boagie and a bunch of us were discussing the up coming debacle... I mean, season.

This is what I responded to boagie.

Let's see how I did:

Again, not predictions, but these are the splits and ERAs I think we'll see

Cain-Close to what I said above, with an ERA in the mid 3's. Something like 3.45 or so

Hudson 8-9 ERA in the high 3's, to low 4's. Something like 3.99-4.10

Peavy 6-11 ERA in the 4's. Something like 4.34-4.44

Lincecum 6-12 ERA in the mid to high 4's 4.44-4.75


Actually, not very good.

I DID peg Hudson's record to a tee; He ended up 8-9, with a 4.14 ERA

Peavy I missed on badly; he went 9-6 with a 3.58 ERA

Cain I blew entirely; 2-4, 5.79

Lincecum ended up 7-4 with a 4.13 ERA.

I also said we would end up at .500 and less.

Missed on that one, too. 84-78.

Sometimes it's good to be wrong.



I think I'll make a 2016 forecast in March of next year, too, so I can sit back and have a good laugh

boly

[Rog]

I love forecasts, although we feel a lot better about them when we realize that injuries, unexpected rises or falls of various players and flat-out good or bad luck can make a season turn out very differently than it "should." Still, I find it exciting to come up with a reaonable idea of what a team's likelihood is.

One thing I will say about last season is that if someone had told me about all the injuries, I would never have expected the Giants to outscore their opponents by 69 runs. That's why assuming they make some good moves this off-season, I'm optimistic about the 2016 season, even though I expect a few players to regress.

Remember though, if the off-season is a good one, we shouldn't get overly excited, and if it's a poor one, we shouldn't get depressed. You pointed out why when you talked about your predicted Giants record for last season, Boly. You expected them to go BELOW .500 -- and that was before all the injuries. You were not alone in your thoughts, either.

I don't think anyone could have predicted, for instance, Chris Heston. Occasionally things just happen seemingly out of the blue.