|
Post by Rog on Nov 11, 2015 10:00:14 GMT -5
This won't make Randy very happy, but, from MLB Trade Rumors:
"The market for free-agent right-hander Darren O’Day is moving quickly, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (links to Twitter). The Beverly Hills Sports Council client already has offers in hand, according to Olney, and he’s planning to meet with the managers of some of those teams in the coming week. Olney lists the Tigers, Red Sox and Giants as three clubs to have shown interest in O’Day, though it’s not known if any of those three are among the teams to have extended a formal offer."
O'Day is really good, but I would prefer the Giants concentrate their money on the top problems of two starters and an outfielder. As Mark has pointed out, closers tend to be overpaid because of what is a somewhat mistaken belief that they have the "make up" to close. They do, but so do others who haven't yet been given the opportunity to close.
One thing that is intriguing about O'Day is that MLBTR says he is the consensus top free agent reliever despite not really having been a closer. He has just 14 saves in an 8-year career.
I keep waiting for the free agent market to break, but there probably isn't much urgency on the part of players not to wait and see if it increases their leverage, and many teams probably like to see how the dominoes begin to fall before finalizing their plans. One thing about the Giants last winter, even though it didn't lead to the results we were looking for, they were aggressive. That likely is the case this off-season as well.
I have read that the Giants would have gone as high as 7/$168 for Jon Lester and did in fact offer the same 6/$155 he signed for with the Cubs. Since David Price is about 8 months younger than Lester was a year ago, I could see them going over $200 million for Price. Greinke is a year and two months older than Lester was, so it doesnt seem unlikely the Giants might be willing to go as far as six years for him. The Giants have been hesitant in the past to go way out with a pitcher, and the one time they did so, Barry Zito 7/$119, it came back to bite them.
Clearly if we ask the question of whether the Giants should go whole hog after one of the Big Boy Starters or spread the money around to fill other needs, we know what the answer would be. That has already been discussed here.
So let me ask this question: Can we compare the advantages and disadvantages of spending a huge amount on a top starter as opposed to spreading the money around? I can see a possible answer as "There IS no advantage to spreading the money around when the Giants need a top starter to pair with Madison Bumgarner." But let's try to be as objective as we can here and at least CONSIDER the possible disadvantages in not spreading the money out. My estimate is that about $50 million per season is available.
I have already taken a position on this one, but I'm looking for input and trying to keep my mind open to new ideas. Hopefully I've come to the right place to acquire them.
|
|
|
Post by Islandboagie on Nov 11, 2015 10:49:53 GMT -5
First off, I don't think we need two pitchers, we NEED one, two of course would be nice. But I happen to believe the Giants will probably wind up with Heston, Vogey, Lincecum or Blackburn as their #5.
They also don't NEED a left fielder. A big bat would be nice, but not necessarily needed. What about all the talk of starting Tomlinson in the outfield? Getting another outfielder would close that opening for Tomlinson, and from everything I saw from Tomlinson last season I want him in the lineup as much as possible!
We also don't NEED a reliever, but maybe more than a left fielder or second starter. After all, we lost Jeremy Affeldt who's been one of our best relievers during the dynasty years. You could also make the argument that he was our best reliever in the post season and a big reason for us winning all three. There will be a void there that should be filled.
If I had to rate levels of importance for off-season moves, it would look like this:
#1 starting pitcher, front line starter
#2 reliever, perhaps a closer.
#3 left fielder
#4 middle infielder
#5 second starter (not likely)
*3 and 4 depend on where Tomlinson ends up playing.
|
|
|
Post by Rog on Nov 11, 2015 16:09:37 GMT -5
If I had to rate levels of importance for off-season moves, it would look like this: #1 starting pitcher, front line starter #2 reliever, perhaps a closer. #3 left fielder #4 middle infielder #5 second starter (not likely) *3 and 4 depend on where Tomlinson ends up playing. Rog -- I think the Giants are set on the infield, although there is a shortstop-type who was recently released they are said to be looking at, likely as a possible upgrade from Ehire Adrianza. If Tomlinson became the left fielder (not likely in 2016 IMO), they would still be fine there, since Tomlinson could move back to the infield if needed. Clearly a top-line starter is a big need, with the possibility of substituting two very good 2nd-tier guys (not my first choice by any means). I think a very good outfielder would be next on the list, preferably one who can play center field for a while. A second starter tickles my fancy next. Mike Leake would seem eminently qualified for that role, and there are others, as well. A reliever would be nice too, but Josh Osich should be able to take Affeldt's place. Steve Okert is another highly-thought-of lefty reliever, although he had a down season (3.82 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) at Sacramento. He still struck out 69 batters in 61 innings though, and now has 161 K's over 130 innings the past two seasons. Okert had 24 saves in 26 opportunities between San Jose and Richmond in 2014. It appears Tomlinson isn't a natural in the outfield. He has the tools to play there, but may need more experience. I don't think he's as good a hitter as he showed last summer, either. His .303 batting average was impressive, but it was based on a .382 BABIP. Tomlinson hit an impressive 28% line drives last season, but only 15% were hit hard, which is below par. His 10% swinging strike rate was a little high for a guy who struck out just once in a little less than five at bats. More 2/3rds of the first pitches to him were strikes, which is a very high rate and indicates he wasn't feared as a hitter and/or swung outside the zone a lot on that first pitch. Likely the former, since he swung at only 27% of pitches outside the zone. Tomlinson had a career .273 average in the minors, and I don't see him hitting much more than that in the majors. Kelby's projection in Fan Graphs for next season is just .250. He seems to have taken to the outfield a little slowly in Arizona, although he might get a chance to play there further in the Mexican Winter League. I'm hoping for Price or Greinke and Leake or someone similar. Maybe a trade for an outfielder, and a bargain basement pickup via trade or the free agent market. I think the Giants have one of the Top 4 pitchers as their top priority, followed by a top outfielder. If they get the top starter, I would think they would by necessity drop off a little in their outfield standards. I'm not recommending this, but what would we think of Samardzija, Leake and Gordon? That may be doable money-wise, but I don't like it well enough. If Cueto turns out to be a bargain, that would be my first choice. Otherwise I like Price as as close to a sure thing as is out there. Greinke could provide the Giants the chance at a possible 2nd-time Cy Young winner without having to go seven years to get him. I believe Zack is expected to get something in the 5/$140-$150 range and is said to be looking for a sixth season. I might be willing to go as high as 6/$160. That's just over what Lester got a year ago. Isn't Greinke a better bet than Lester was a year ago, despite being a little older? Zack would cost a draft pick, whereas Price wouldn't. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3123/darren-oday#ixzz3rDWKstx0
|
|
sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
|
Post by sfgdood on Nov 11, 2015 22:22:56 GMT -5
If you don't think the Giants need two, not one, high quality starter this offseason, you are putting WAY too much faith in a rotation that couldn't cut the mustard this year
|
|
|
Post by Islandboagie on Nov 11, 2015 23:02:05 GMT -5
Again, I'm trying to be logical here. The Giants aren't going to land Greinke, Price or Cueto then go out and spend significant money on another starter like Leake, Samardzija, Fister or Kennedy. Which means if they DO go for two pitchers the better of the two they get will be someone like Leake or Samardzija.
So I ask you, Randy and anyone else, who would you like, Leake and Samardzija, Leake and Kennedy, Samardzija and Fister, or Leake and Fister?
OR would you rather have the Giants save that money on the second pitcher and just get Greinke or Price? If you think getting two pitchers is the better option, go compare Heston's age and numbers to a possible second pitcher the Giants could get. Heston wins every time.
I'll take Greinke and Heston, you can have Samardzija and Fister. I'll have a better rotation, and in the process make the Dodger's rotation worse.
|
|
sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
|
Post by sfgdood on Nov 12, 2015 1:12:11 GMT -5
I want the team to stop playing the game like they are poor as a church mouse. Last year all I heard from you and Rog was how WONDERFUL it was that we missed out on the top FAs last year so we could save up for this offseason. Now you say it's "reasonable" to expect the Giants to go cheap again. If so, why the hell do we keep packing that damn stadium? If this is the plan then Evans needs to stop saying stupid things like "we're going to have a rotation as good or better than LA" because he clearly doesn't want to do what it takes to accomplish that.
|
|
|
Post by Islandboagie on Nov 12, 2015 8:40:11 GMT -5
Randy- I want the team to stop playing the game like they are poor as a church mouse. Last year all I heard from you and Rog was how WONDERFUL it was that we missed out on the top FAs last year so we could save up for this offseason. Now you say it's "reasonable" to expect the Giants to go cheap again.
Boagie- I never once said that, and I don't believe the Giants should go cheap now. I think they should focus on quality rather quantity this off-season and get Greinke. I don't see the need for wasteful spending on someone older who had a worse season than Heston did last year.
I actually wanted them to sign Pablo and a big name pitcher last year, just not for the money they wound up getting, except maybe Shields. I was not happy with them resigning Peavy, I expected better.
That said, I also didn't think the Giants were doomed for a 3rd place finish. I thought they'd still compete, which they did.
I also predicted Pablo would show up to spring training fatter than ever after getting a big contract with no weight restrictions. That happened.
In looking back...yeah. We dodged a bullet by not signing Lester and Pablo for sure. Lester has only proven to be what I suggested he was a year ago...a post-season choker. He did it with Oakland last year and Chicago this year.
Like I said, I appreciate what Pablo did for the Giants, but Duffy bettered every one of Pablo's stats.
There are certain things you fail to see, Randy. I don't know if it's on purpose or not.
As for the pitchers this season, which pitcher(s) would you get?
|
|
|
Post by rxmeister on Nov 12, 2015 9:02:36 GMT -5
I'm not going to panic whenever I see a rumor linking the Giants to a player I don't want them to get. Darren O'Day? That's a player I don't want them to get! Too many good young relievers in the minors and Ray Black's name didn't even come up. Black is wowing everyone in the Fall League hitting 104 mph in a game and throwing 100 and over for an entire inning in the all star game. He's a year away but still. And I certainly don't want to hear O'Day's name when I hear the Reds have made Aroldis Chapman available.
|
|
|
Post by rxmeister on Nov 12, 2015 9:32:34 GMT -5
As for the other rumors, I like Kelby Tomlinson as much as the next guy, but you really see him as a future everyday outfielder? With the likes of Jason Heyward and Yoenis Cespedes on the market? If the Giants didn't chase these guys on the grounds that they thought Parker and Williamson will be everyday stars that's one thing, but everything about Kelby and what he does screams valuable guy off the bench ceiling for me. By the way, most O'Day rumors I see have the Dodgers as the most aggressive team. (Surprise!) I think nothing has changed for the Giants. They're chasing big name starting pitching, and kicking some tires on others if they can't get who they want.
|
|
sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
|
Post by sfgdood on Nov 12, 2015 22:50:11 GMT -5
As I have said all along, and Boly has also, the Giants NEED to get a top tier AND a second tier starter. If not, we can expect more of the same we saw this year. Lots of offense and not enough pitching to back it up. They have the money to do it. If the Giants rely on a hurt Cain, an aging Peavy and Heston who got bludgeoned late in the year, we all lose.
|
|
|
Post by klaiggeb on Nov 13, 2015 12:37:22 GMT -5
Randy--As I have said all along, and Boly has also, the Giants NEED to get a top tier AND a second tier starter. If not, we can expect more of the same we saw this year. Lots of offense and not enough pitching to back it up. They have the money to do it. If the Giants rely on a hurt Cain, an aging Peavy and Heston who got bludgeoned late in the year, we all lose.
***boly says***
Bingo!
It baffles me why this is such a point of discussion. We NEED 2 top tier starters; PERIOD!
Cain may or may not be back. Personally, I'm encouraged by his last start, but until he shows me the same Matty we had before, he's a question mark. A BIG question mark!
We simply do NOT need a banger. We don't.
I'd love one, sure, but we don't spend, and won't spend like the Dodgers do.
Thus, the resources we DO have should be spent, as much as possible, on UPGRADING our starters.
Doesn't have to be both Price and Greinke. That's a pipe dream.
But one of them, and say Cueto or Zimmerman... THAT'S the kind of upgrade we need.
Then, if we can't resign Leake, who cares?
Give me Bum, Zim, Cueto, Cain and Peavy, and we'll be in great shape, especially with Heston and Blackburn in the wings.
Then, in LF, platoon Parker and Williamson.
In CF, if Blanco beats out Pagan, which I think he CAN do, we have at least a decent leadoff guy.
I'll take this line up.
Blanco Panik Pence Posey Belt Duffy Crawford Parker/Williamson in a heartbeat!
boly
|
|
|
Post by Islandboagie on Nov 13, 2015 14:01:16 GMT -5
Boly- It baffles me why this is such a point of discussion. We NEED 2 top tier starters; PERIOD!
Boagie- We don't NEED two top tier starters, and we aren't going to get two top tier starters. That's why it's been a point of discussion. The Dodgers didn't have three top tier starters last season and they won the division with a less potent offense and worse defense than the Giants. What they had and what we didn't was a top tier #2 pitcher in their rotation, and they didn't have the injury issues we had. You could also make the argument that the Giants bottom three in the rotation last season were also better than the Dodgers. So.. to me, the difference maker was Greinke, and Greinke alone.
Now, two top tier starters would be great, and I really hope it happens, but it's not going to happen. Knowing how the Giants operate, if they're thinking two pitchers it's likely they go with two 2nd tier starters. If that happens, it pushes Heston out of the rotation. Compare Heston's numbers to that of a possible second pitcher the Giants would go after. Heston was better than Samardzija, Kennedy and Fister.
So they'd be doing two things, 1-they'd miss out on getting that top tier #2 starter they desperately need. 2-they'd downgrade a spot in the rotation that Heston could easily fill.
In this situation I believe quality over quantity. They need to focus on a #2 pitcher. Greinke and Price will be in high high demand, we'll have to outbid a lot of rich teams to get them, if we do that they won't have the money to get another pitcher, so if they have two pitchers in mind, they'll back out of the negotiations with those two top tier guys. I don't want to give them an out, and trust me, they'll take that out and wind up trying to sell us on Leake and Fister. That's not good enough.
In my opinion it's Greinke or bust.
|
|
|
Post by rxmeister on Nov 13, 2015 15:22:18 GMT -5
TWO of the big four? That's all you want, Boly? No wonder you're never satisfied with the Giants offseason, you're setting your hopes way too high. If we get one I'll be deliriously happy. And then add a second tier starter like Leake, Samardzija or Kennedy. Boagie makes a great point too, that's it's not even in the Giants hands. Greinke likes it in LA, Price said last year he would love to be a Cub. (Wants to be a part of them ending their drought, and played for Joe Madden) Assuming that happens, you're now competing for Cueto and Zimmerman with every other team in baseball. If the Giants make a legitimate strike at these guys and they pull a Jon Lester and ding elsewhere, I'll have no problem with the team.
|
|
|
Post by klaiggeb on Nov 13, 2015 21:32:36 GMT -5
Mark, you make a good point, and it's one I'll conceede.
We can't and won't get 2 top guys.
That being the case, I'll settle for one of the top 4, as long as Leake is part of our off season work.
Bum New Guy Leake/Cain(?) Cain(?) Leake Peavy.
I could live with that.
But IF... IF our "big moves" are for guys like Kennedy and Pfister or Leake...no way will I be happy.
And that idiot Kennedy just turned down a 6 million dollar RAISE for a crappy season!
Anyone pays him more than he made last year is a flat out fool!
15.2 million WASN'T enough for a guy with an ERA of 4.2!
Sheesh!
boly
|
|
|
Post by Islandboagie on Nov 14, 2015 10:42:08 GMT -5
The Giants can certainly sign David Price or Zack Greinke and stay under the luxury tax. But what would that mean for the rest of the roster?
The offseason is great for running around and spending other people's money. It's like thumbing through a billionaire's yacht catalog and picking out the features you would want (oooh, a helipad!). Except with baseball players, you'll eventually get to enjoy whatever they decide on. So much fun.
I, for, one, think the Giants should bring payroll up to $300 million this offseason.
Except it's probably useful to dig into exactly what the Giants could get with their money. How much do they have to spend? How many roster spots do they have to fill? How many full-time players (starting pitchers and position players) do they need? What are smart people predicting the best free agents will cost?
So many questions. This is going to get wonky. Skip this section if you just want the answer to how much the Giants can spend.
***BEGIN WONKY ROSTER TALK***
We'll start with some assumptions. Feel free to disagree.
The Giants will want to pay Hector Sanchez whatever he'll make in arbitration, even if he isn't the backup catcher. George Kontos is a part of the 2016 bullpen plan, as is Josh Osich Kelby Tomlinson will be on the bench The Giants will non-tender or trade Yusmeiro Petit There was going to be something in there about Chris Heston, but for the purposes of this exercise, I'm assuming that he's in the pool of potential players on the 25-man roster, akin to Jarrett Parker and Ehire Adrianza, not a given.
The Giants are likely to commit around $137 million to 20 players
Of those, 19 will probably be on the roster (with Hector Sanchez the omission). The estimates for the arbitration-eligible players are via MLB Trade Rumors.
Matt Cain $21.00 million Buster Posey $20.00 Hunter Pence $18.50 Jake Peavy $15.00 Angel Pagan $11.25 Madison Bumgarner $9.75 Sergio Romo $9.00 Santiago Casilla $6.50 Brandon Belt $6.20 Brandon Crawford $5.70 Javier Lopez $5.00 Gregor Blanco $3.90 George Kontos $1.00 Hector Sanchez $0.90 Joe Panik $0.60 Matt Duffy $0.60 Andrew Susac $0.60 Hunter Strickland $0.60 Josh Osich $0.60 Kelby Tomlinson $0.60 Total (estimate): $137.30 million
And some notes ...
Of the six roster spots that are up in the air, three to four of them can be filled for close to the league minimum
For example: Heston as the long reliever, Parker as a fifth outfielder, and Adrianza as the utility infielder. Or (minor league free agent) as the last reliever, (minor league free agent) as the fifth outfielder, and (random Brendan Ryan-type dude) as the utility infielder.
There are a lot of ways to mix and match for those spots without spending much at all.
The Giants aren't going to want to go over the Competitive Balance Tax
Steve Berman makes a lot of sense explaining why over at Bay Area Sports Guy. The penalties are cumulative, meaning the Giants will have to pay even more if they go over the salary cap tax threshold again.
The threshold is $189 million in 2016, just as it was last year. Except the Giants went over it in 2015, even though their payroll was just over $170 million. That's because a) the total figure includes benefits and other non-salary considerations, and b) the figure uses the average salary of a contract every year, not what they're actually paid. Jake Peavy was paid $9 million last year and is owed $15 million in 2016, but he counts as a $12 million hit both years.
***END WONKY ROSTER TALK***
So I'm going to guess the Giants are going to hover around that $170 million mark again. All that business here about the Giants increasing payroll every year? The salary cap tax threshold got them this time. Might not happen.
This all leaves the Giants about $30 to $35 million to acquire two or three starting players.
/confetti falls
This might disappoint you. Or it might intrigue you! I don't know you. But let's look at what this could get the Giants, using Dave Cameron's projections at FanGraphs. How much does $30 million buy a team on the open market?
One (1) David Price or Zack Greinke That's it. If you want to go big with a starter, you start Blanco in left and put Heston (or Clayton Blackburn) in the rotation. This is not a completely asinine strategy. Just a risky one.
Gerardo Parra, J.A. Happ, and Scott Kazmir Oh, my stars, does that sound like a Giants offseason. At this point, that's not even an insult. Giants offseasons tend to be secretly awesome every other year, somehow. This would lack a certain amount of sex appeal, alright, but at least the Giants would keep their pick, right?
Right?
Chris Davis and Ryan Vogelsong (or an equivalent starter). Davis would suck up almost the entire budget on his own. They're not even going to pretend to pursue him, not unless someone will take Angel Pagan, salary and all, which is extraordinarily unlikely.
Vogelsong is just a proxy for "pitcher who costs under $5 million," but you could totally see that signing happening, too. The Davis signing? Less so.
Dexter Fowler and Mike Leake You can see the problem with spreading the money between a left fielder and a pitcher. It's probably better to cross your fingers with Mac Williamson as a Blanco complement in left and spend big on one pitcher. Or split the money on two pitchers, like ...
Wei-Yin Chen and Jeff Samardzija I like Chen a lot, and while Samardzija was dreadful last year, I still think U.S. Cellular and miserable White Sox defense didn't help him. Feel free to substitute Leake or Kazmir or Iwakuma or Gallardo or ....
The Giants can certainly pick two second-tier pitchers. If the pitchers will have them. Which isn't a guarantee.
Justin Upton and Bartolo Colon It would be amusing! If you're wary about spending big on pitchers, who break down, this might be your cuppa joe. While Upton isn't the supernatural offensive force he was supposed to be, he's still pretty good, and he would make a deep Giants lineup much deeper.
Colon would be fun. Until he started giving up runs. Still! Lots and lots of fun.
Are you enjoying these options? They're not all horrible, not all awful. Certainly not as impressive as you might have hoped. You can use Cameron's projections to mix and match. But there are other options, too.
An expensive free agent up there and a trade we aren't thinking about This makes a lot of sense. This is probably the year they cash in on their 401(susac) and get a young pitcher who costs less than Samardzija would, then signs someone for market value. Or gets an outfielder who costs less than Fowler, then signs a pitcher or two. Or ... you get the idea.
The problem here is that the Giants aren't exactly overflowing with top-100 prospects, so they aren't going to be trading for the most desirable young players on the market. Still, if they don't want to go over the Competitive Balance Tax, a trade might be an easy way to get a player making less than market value.
There's another possibility, too: Maybe the Giants don't really care about the Competitive Balance Tax.
Unlikely! But the penalty for going over it again in 2016 would be 30 percent of the amount they're over. So if they went $20 million over to sign both Price and Upton, they would pay just over $6 million in taxes (after benefits and such are accounted for). And what's $6 million among friends? Say it with me again: Not. My. Money.
It's someone's money, though, and Larry Baer is on record as saying he doesn't anticipate the Giants going over the cap again. So you have about $30 million or so. The Giants can buy one star, two solid contributors, or three raffle tickets. We'll know what the correct answer is by this time next year. Hopefully, the Giants don't screw it up.
/tosses cat into even-year volcano
|
|
|
Post by klaiggeb on Nov 14, 2015 10:48:46 GMT -5
So basically what you're saying, Rog is that we're hosed before we even start.
Perfect.
The kids aren't and might never BE ready but they'll be what we're stuck with.
Why does none of this surprise me?
IF this transpires the way you're forecasting maybe this time others will hop on board the train I've been riding: "The Miss Lead 'em Express."
boly
|
|
|
Post by Rog on Nov 14, 2015 11:18:47 GMT -5
15.2 million WASN'T enough for a guy with an ERA of 4.2! Rog -- When a guy makes what I consider to be a foolish decision -- as you and I agree Kennedy's appears to be -- I look to see why he might have done so. If figured it must have had something to do with getting a long-term contract. And that appears to be the case. Kennedy is said to be looking for $30-$40 million in a long-term contract. Personally, I would have taken the qualifying offer of $15.8 million and used that as my base to either negotiate a long-term contract with the Padres or take for one year and then come back after the 2016 season and see what kind of a long-term deal I could work out at that time. We have asked the question here though as to how much is enough. Maybe Kennedy has decided that $30-$40 million is his "enough is enough" amount and doesn't want to take a chance on having his career decline swiftly at the age of 31 and not allowing him to reach his goal. I'm not interested in him personally, but it's not unlikely that a team will give him $30-$40 million in a long-term contract. I could certainly envision his receiving a 4/$30 contract, and apparently he can live with that instead of 1/$15.8. I think he made a mistake (especially since the team now acquiring him will need to forfeit a draft pick), but if his goal is to earn $30-$40 million and ensure a long-term future in the game, perhaps this is his best way to do. Apparently that is what his thinking is. He's not saying that $15.8 million isn't enough for one season. We don't believe he would be that stupid, do we? One more thing that just came to mind. Maybe he doesn't want to play for the Padres anymore. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3123/darren-oday#ixzz3rTto7hiG
|
|
|
Post by Islandboagie on Nov 14, 2015 11:28:43 GMT -5
That wasn't Rog, it was actually Grant Brisbee, and I posted it here.
But it's just saying what I've been saying all along. If we get a top tier starter, we won't be getting much else. But is that necessarily a sign of doom?
Was Heston that bad? He was our second best starter last year. And for the first part he was even better than Bumgarner. I don't want to create a log jam for our young players, Heston deserves a spot in the rotation, that's my final answer.
How about our situation in LF..Is that bad too?
I don't think so. It might be somewhat of a rotating position, but between Blanco, Parker and Williamson they have it covered. And we still don't know if Tomlinson might be out there.
I wouldn't mind Blanco in CF, Tomlinson in LF and Pagan coming off the bench.
I'll tell you right now, Heston and Blanco were not the problem last year.
|
|
|
Post by Rog on Nov 14, 2015 11:41:09 GMT -5
I'll take Greinke and Heston, you can have Samardzija and Fister. Rog -- There's logic in what you say here. Samardzija is intriguing, but he's also a huge risk. Just as was the case with Tim Lincecum in 2012, one could argue that Samardzija was the worst starter in the majors to stay in the rotation a full season. He led the American League in something like earned runs, hits and home runs allowed or some such horrible combination. I like Leake better than Samardzija because Leake is both younger (more prime years available) and less of a risk. Leake has been pretty consistent at a pretty good level. I'm hoping the Giants have more money to spend that Dave Cameron thinks they do. He's a very smart guy, and he might be right. Larry Baer has said the Giants will have a bump in the payroll, and if it's just a tiny bump, Dave is right. I'm pegging my hopes on their having a more normal bump for themselves. Mixed messages from Baer, probably because both are true. He said the history of 5-year plus contracts for a starting pitcher that have worked out may be a "null set" (pretty cool talk, he?). He also said the Giants offered about the same to Jon Lester as the 6/$155 contract he signed. I think it boils down to what the Giants see as value. They are hoping they can get that with one of the top starters but are prepared to go in other directions if that isn't the case. By the way, what are those (general) directions? Internal, free agents, trades and the international market are all considerations, as they should be. One shouldn't limit his thinking when he begins to solve a problem. He should come up with Plans A through Z. Baer is essentially hoping they'll remain smart shoppers. That's what we should want too. It's worked pretty well the past six years, hasn't it? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3123/darren-oday?page=1#ixzz3rU4y7YX9
|
|
sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
|
Post by sfgdood on Nov 14, 2015 13:01:45 GMT -5
Rx - If the Giants make a legitimate strike at these guys and they pull a Jon Lester and ding elsewhere, I'll have no problem with the team.
Dood - Once is fine...twice is a pattern and should not be tolerated by a team that aspires for more than merely to "compete" for a playoff spot. At what point do we say this is an "excuse" and not just bad luck. I would in NO WAY be "fine" with this team if it doesn't get the top pitching it needs.
Boagie - The Giants can certainly sign David Price or Zack Greinke and stay under the luxury tax. But what would that mean for the rest of the roster?
Dood - why is it we as fans are still thinking like a small revenue fan base? We accept the narrative that the Giants don't have the cash to spend big. We accept the excuse of "Luxury Taxes" and such...why?? We are a top 4 revenue team...we shouldn't accept this "poor us" crap. We should WANT to outspend teams that have logistical advantages with certain FA players. That's what you do when you have money but nothing in the farm system to help you out at your areas of need.
It's PAST time to think big instead of small.
|
|
|
Post by Rog on Nov 14, 2015 17:18:34 GMT -5
I'll tell you right now, Heston and Blanco were not the problem last year. Rog -- They certainly weren't. The problem with Blanco in left field though is twofold. Would he be able to stay strong for a full season of play? (No reason why not, but we just don't know. He could be platooned if he begins wearing out.) What about when Pagan gets injured -- or someone else? The Giants have no depth in the outfield. I think the Giants want someone who can play center field. Pagan's health is obviously iffy, and his contract expires at the end of the 2016 season. They missed out on a chance for Aaron Hicks of the Twins, who went to the Yankees for a lesser catching prospect than Andrew Susac IMO. I don't know if I would have traded Susac for Hicks or not, but Hicks is a decent center fielder who is under team control for four more years I believe. I suspect the Giants were in on the situation, were asked to give up Susac in return and passed. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3123/darren-oday?page=1#ixzz3rUGHzgzL
|
|
|
Post by Rog on Nov 14, 2015 17:35:01 GMT -5
I'll take this line up. Blanco .707 Panik .716 Pence .758 Posey .846 Belt .785 Duffy .717 Crawford .691 Parker/Williamson .695/.700 in a heartbeat! Rog -- I put in Fan Graph's projected OPS for that lineup. WAY too low is going through your mind. But look at Buster Posey. He doesn't look particularly low, does he. He has the career track record and is of the age to back that projection up. Take your own projections and average them with the one from Fan Graphs. It is unlikely that anything above that is reasonable. Remember, guys DO have down seasons. There's a pretty good chance that two or three of the guys in the starting lineup above will slump off or miss a significant part of the season to injury. The projections are lower than we might think because guys DO have down seasons, and the projection averages out the potential good and the potential bad. When we project, we usually expect things to continue as they are or get better. I think the projection for Joe Panik is low, but I can see all the others as being reasonable, even as I realize that they look low. Take your own projections and average them with these, and I'll bet half the guys won't exceed that averaged number. And one or two may fall significantly short or be injured enough to have their contribution diminished considerably. That's the nature of the game. Try it, and see what you come up with. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3123/darren-oday?page=1#ixzz3rVUrjhvW
|
|
|
Post by Rog on Nov 14, 2015 19:07:11 GMT -5
This apparently is the thinking by Ian Kennedy:
"Ian Kennedy is planning to decline the Padres‘ qualifying offer, per Heyman. Both Tim Dierkes and I have noted that there’s little sense in Kennedy accepting the offer. The right-hander is fourth in innings pitched in the NL over the past five seasons and has averaged 8.5 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 in that time while posting a 3.89 ERA, 3.87 FIP and 3.78 xFIP. Homer struggles in 2015 aside, Kennedy finished strong and should get paid somewhere. It’s hard to envision a Scott Boras client being the first to accept a qualifying offer, and if all else fails, Kennedy can go the Ervin Santana route and sign a one-year deal near the value of the QO late in the offseason."
It looks like pitching is going to be very expensive this off-season. Based on the numbers I'm seeing, Johnny Cueto might be a bargain. After doing some research, I'm also more confident now that the Giants' available money is closer to my number than Grant Brisbee's. I think it's possible the Giants could afford Cueto, Leake and Parra. I'd have to research Parra more, and he's projected at $12 million per, but if he pans out, I think the dollars should be doable. Cueto might be a guy whose salary just takes off though.
|
|
|
Post by rxmeister on Nov 15, 2015 9:31:12 GMT -5
Replace Price or Greinke with Cueto and I'll be happy with that haul. Haven't heard much about Parra to the Giants though. I have heard them active on Cespedes and Upton. The problem I've heard with Cespedes though is that the Giants think he's worth Pence numbers ( 5/90) and they fear his big late season performance has shot his asking price way higher than he's worth.
|
|
|
Post by Islandboagie on Nov 15, 2015 14:16:26 GMT -5
I don't think Parra is much of an upgrade over Blanco.
As I've said many times before, I don't think the Giants are going to look for a second pitcher if they get someone like Greinke, Price or Cueto. They've been dropping Blackburn's name too much not to already be thinking of filling that spot internally.
Back to the outfield, that's the area I have no clue about. We may just see what we saw at the end of this season. A platoon of Blanco and Pagan in CF, and a Platoon of Blanco, Parker and Williamson in LF.
But then, if Pence is out for an extended amount of time next season, we're in trouble all over again. They might want to get a big bat in LF to soften that blow. Upton or Cespedes would definitely do that. Gerardo Parra wouldn't.
|
|
|
Post by rxmeister on Nov 16, 2015 5:04:07 GMT -5
Parra broke out last year to the tune of .291 and he has an arm like a cannon. He also can hit for power. He's just 28, just coming into his prime. I'd prefer Heyward or Cespedes for sure, but Parra is a huge upgrade over Gregor Blanco. I don't see that comparison at all.
|
|
|
Post by Rog on Nov 16, 2015 9:33:28 GMT -5
If the Giants didn't chase these guys on the grounds that they thought Parker and Williamson will be everyday stars that's one thing, but everything about Kelby and what he does screams valuable guy off the bench ceiling for me. Rog -- Things can change a lot in a year, but neither Parker nor Tomlinson is among the to 30 Giants 2015 prospects over at mlb.com. Guys like Duffy and Tomlinson can come out of nowhere, but Parker was a 2nd-round draft pick, so his absence from even the top THIRTY earlier this year is rather telling. Both Parker and Susac are former 2nd-round picks, but two years ago here one scouting report on the Arizona Fall League had Susac as a good prospect and Parker as a not-so-good one. And that was even with Parker's hitting .300 in that league, something he's never done at any minor league level. It would be nice if Jarrett were anywhere near what he showed us last summer. But the chances of that being the case are slim. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3123/darren-oday#ixzz3rfGgxRJ9
|
|
|
Post by Rog on Nov 16, 2015 10:27:57 GMT -5
I learned from my first season of fantasy baseball this summer that platooning is every bit as important as I thought it was. Parra, for instance, hit for a .809 OPS against right-handers and a .784 OPS when the starter was a right-hander.
Here is something intriguing about two Giants players. Both Matt Duffy and Hunter Pence were considerably better against right-handers DESPITE being right-handed hitters themselves. Same with Yoenis Cespedes. That is unusual for a right-handed hitter, and left-handed hitters usually have even more pronounced splits, as with Parra, hitting much better against right-handed pitchers than lefties.
One way to man a position and beef up the bench simultaneously is to have two complementary players play the position. But sometimes -- as was the case with at least Duffy, Pence and Nori Aoki last season, hitters will post a REVERSE split.
One negative in signing Parra is his .597 career split against southpaws. He's actually something of an expensive platoon player. Teams should probably do more platooning than they do. Most of the top managers over time have platooned more than average. The manager with whom I associate platooning as a kid was Casey Stengel.
Sometimes teams can overdo platooning. In 1962, Willie McCovey had only 10 at bats against southpaws compared to 219 at bats against right-handers. That despite posting a 1.067 OPS against southpaws in 1959. Willie had slumped off badly against lefties after 1959, but, still, just 10 at bats against southpaws in 1962 is a bit much (or a lot too few, depending on how one looks at it). Willie was once pinch hit for by ... Joey Amalfitano, he of the .641 career OPS.
In today's game, it seems likely that a left-hander would have been brought in to pitch to McCovey with two outs and runners on second and third in the bottom of the ninth inning of the seventh game of the 1962 World Series. With only 10 at bats against southpaws that season, McCovey would almost surely have been pinch hit for.
Instead, he hit a sharp line drive off Yankee starter Ralph Terry. If not for Bobby Richardson, the Giants would have won the 1962 World Series, and 2010 would have been their first World Series win in 48 years instead of 56.
As it was, McCovey was expecting to get walked intentionally against Terry, bringing Orlando Cepeda to the plate with the bases loaded. McCovey had hit Terry well in the Series and in fact had a triple against him earlier in the game. McCovey and pitcher Jack Sanford had the only hits against Terry entering the ninth.
Matty Alou pinch hit for reliever Billy (Digger) O'Dell to lead off the ninth inning, and dragged a bunt single. Terry then struck out brother Felipe and Chuck Hiller before yielding a double down the right-field line to Willie Mays. Torrential rains had delayed that final game for several days, and the wet field coupled with a fine play by Roger Maris to cut the ball off kept even the speedy Alou at third base, setting up McCovey -- and Richardson.
That season Mays came up with the season on the line three different times. The final day of the regular season against Turk Farrell, the ninth inning of the final game of the three-game playoff with the Dodgers against Ed Roebuck, and that fateful game seven against Terry. On those three occasions, Willie homered to left against Farrell, singled up the middle against Roebuck (actually hitting him with a line drive) and double to right against Terry.
Willie's 8th-inning homer beat Houston 2-1 on the final day. His single contributed to the two-out rally that lifted the Giants over the Dodgers (Cepeda walked with the bases loaded to plate the winning run.), and the double nearly tied the final game of the World Series against Terry.
Mays' ability to hit to all fields was shown earlier in that game seven. Before doubling down the right-field line in the 9th, he was robbed of a double down the left-field line by Tom Tresh. That immediately preceded McCovey's triple, so Tresh temporarily saved Terry's shutout before it was Maris in the 9th who saved Ralph.
That 1962 team came from four behind the Dodgers with seven left to play, forcing the playoff by going 5-2 in that final week as the Dodgers lost six games. Mays should have won a third MVP that season but lost out to the surprise of Maury Wills' record-breaking 104 steals. In today's voting, the voters would realized that Willie's 10.5 WAR nearly doubled Wills' 6.0. Willie was far better at the plate and in the field -- and stole 18 bases in 20 attempts himself.
Wills was credited with an outstanding 19 base running runs (he was caught stealing only 13 times) to Willie's still very good 4. That essentially means that Willie's WAR without baserunning was about 10.1, which did more than double Maury's 4.1 at bat and in the field.
Wills' breaking 100 steals for the first time in history was an amazing feat at the time, but Mays was by far the more valuable player. That would have been better-recognized today.
|
|
|
Post by Rog on Nov 16, 2015 11:09:40 GMT -5
The problem I've heard with Cespedes though is that the Giants think he's worth Pence numbers ( 5/90) and they fear his big late season performance has shot his asking price way higher than he's worth. Rog -- I think that's a pretty accurate assessment of the situation. Even without the postseason though, Cespedes has been rated between 15 and 16 WAR in his four season, which would easily justify a $20+ million per season salary. My gut says no though. Spend the money on the rotation. I think the Giants themselves view the outfield as a concern, but not their primary concern. Incidentally, Cespedes had easily his best season in 2015 and was valued at $54 million last year. He's been valued at $115 million over his first four seasons. One wouldn't expect his next four seasons to be as good, but they shouldn't drop off horribly. He'll probably get a five-year contract, and the fifth year could be a little more worrisome. Remember, free agent values are artificially high, just as players under team control are paid anywhere from incredibly low to below-market low. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3123/darren-oday?page=1#ixzz3rfWsKKq8
|
|