Post by Rog on Nov 10, 2015 9:11:21 GMT -5
This is to make a point, not an absolute.
Had the Giants signed Jon Lester, they likely would have given up about 23 fewer runs. Why 23? Lester's ERA in 22 2/3 equivalent nine-inning games was 3.24. If the pitchers who replaced him yielded a 4.25 ERA, they would have given up 99 earned runs compared to Jon's 76, a difference of 23 runs. That's a difference off about two and a half wins, so say two or three.
The Giants finished 8 games behind the Dodgers. Even if the extra wins had been three and all three came against the Dodgers, the Giants would have finished two games back.
Hunter Pence played about a third of the season. The Giants averaged 5.13 runs per game when he played, and 3.90 runs when he didn't. They scored nearly a run and a quarter more when he played. If he had played the additional 110 games he missed, they might in theory scored 137 more runs than they did. That's about 14 more wins, easily enough to catch the Dodgers even if none of those extra wins came against the Dodgers.
Now, it is highly unlikely that the Giants would have scored 137 more runs if Hunter had played, but they likely would have scored more than the 23 runs fewer they would have given up with Lester. Then let's take the impact of the games missed by Nori Aoki. And the impact of games missed by Brandon Belt. And Joe Panik. And Brandon Crawford. And Angel Pagan, Gregor Blanco and Andrew Susac. And the injuries to Matt Cain, Tim Hudson and even Tim Lincecum.
I think that we can see that the Giants could well have won eight more games if they had stayed healthy. It's just not reasonable that they would have won eight more with Jon Lester. Or James Shields. Or Pablo Sandoval.
Most of us would have been happy if the Giants had signed one of their top three targets, especially if it had been a starting pitcher. But it is highly unlikely that the Giants would have won the pennant had they done so.
On the other hand, had they stayed healthy, they might well have won. Obviously they have a very good recent record in the postseason once they make it in.
So it is possible -- a reasonable chance -- that had the Giants stayed healthy, they would have won the World Series again. And still had the $50 million available to sign two pitchers and an outfielder this winter.
If they had signed one of the Big Three, they likely wouldn't have won the World Series and would have $20-$25 million less per season to fix the remaining problems this winter. With Lester or Shields, the problems would have been lesser, although not by as much as we would have liked. If they had signed Pablo, all bets would have been off.
So as hurt as we Giants fans were when the Giants didn't make the big signing we had hoped for last winter and instead kept their costs and commitments down, it is highly likely it helped the franchise. The biggest criticism we should make of them last winter is that Plans A, B and C likely weren't as good as the Plan D they settled for. They had a better winter because they got lucky (even though it seemed unlucky at the time), not because they planned it that way.
As fans, we're lucky too. We suffered through a horrible angst a winter ago, but that pain likely helped the franchise.
And that is how the Giants might have won and how they wouldn't have won. And how they might win again.
This winter could be telling, but it hasn't told yet. Maybe save the angst for later? Hopefully, years later.
Had the Giants signed Jon Lester, they likely would have given up about 23 fewer runs. Why 23? Lester's ERA in 22 2/3 equivalent nine-inning games was 3.24. If the pitchers who replaced him yielded a 4.25 ERA, they would have given up 99 earned runs compared to Jon's 76, a difference of 23 runs. That's a difference off about two and a half wins, so say two or three.
The Giants finished 8 games behind the Dodgers. Even if the extra wins had been three and all three came against the Dodgers, the Giants would have finished two games back.
Hunter Pence played about a third of the season. The Giants averaged 5.13 runs per game when he played, and 3.90 runs when he didn't. They scored nearly a run and a quarter more when he played. If he had played the additional 110 games he missed, they might in theory scored 137 more runs than they did. That's about 14 more wins, easily enough to catch the Dodgers even if none of those extra wins came against the Dodgers.
Now, it is highly unlikely that the Giants would have scored 137 more runs if Hunter had played, but they likely would have scored more than the 23 runs fewer they would have given up with Lester. Then let's take the impact of the games missed by Nori Aoki. And the impact of games missed by Brandon Belt. And Joe Panik. And Brandon Crawford. And Angel Pagan, Gregor Blanco and Andrew Susac. And the injuries to Matt Cain, Tim Hudson and even Tim Lincecum.
I think that we can see that the Giants could well have won eight more games if they had stayed healthy. It's just not reasonable that they would have won eight more with Jon Lester. Or James Shields. Or Pablo Sandoval.
Most of us would have been happy if the Giants had signed one of their top three targets, especially if it had been a starting pitcher. But it is highly unlikely that the Giants would have won the pennant had they done so.
On the other hand, had they stayed healthy, they might well have won. Obviously they have a very good recent record in the postseason once they make it in.
So it is possible -- a reasonable chance -- that had the Giants stayed healthy, they would have won the World Series again. And still had the $50 million available to sign two pitchers and an outfielder this winter.
If they had signed one of the Big Three, they likely wouldn't have won the World Series and would have $20-$25 million less per season to fix the remaining problems this winter. With Lester or Shields, the problems would have been lesser, although not by as much as we would have liked. If they had signed Pablo, all bets would have been off.
So as hurt as we Giants fans were when the Giants didn't make the big signing we had hoped for last winter and instead kept their costs and commitments down, it is highly likely it helped the franchise. The biggest criticism we should make of them last winter is that Plans A, B and C likely weren't as good as the Plan D they settled for. They had a better winter because they got lucky (even though it seemed unlucky at the time), not because they planned it that way.
As fans, we're lucky too. We suffered through a horrible angst a winter ago, but that pain likely helped the franchise.
And that is how the Giants might have won and how they wouldn't have won. And how they might win again.
This winter could be telling, but it hasn't told yet. Maybe save the angst for later? Hopefully, years later.
