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Post by Rog on Nov 6, 2015 6:57:57 GMT -5
The Giants are rejecting Nori Aoki's $5.5 million option and will instead pay him a $700K buyout.
What they may have been thinking:
Aoki seemed to fit the Giants' keep the line moving philosophy and was the Giants' best lead off man in 2015. He was at least an average fielder in left field. But twice during the season he was injured serious -- a broken ankle and a concussion. He was available to them a year ago on a $4.7 million guarantee, and they're gambling that if necessary they might be able to sign him back without a large expenditure.
What it could mean:
The Giants may be more interested in improving their outfield -- both skill-wise and health-wise -- than was previously thought. Spending more money in the outfield would mean having less available for the rotation, which could be one reason the Giants are proceeding slowly with Mike Leake and reportedly haven't yet talked contract with him. They may be looking for an outfielder who either provides pop or who could play center field if needed.
My thinking:
Aoki is said to be healthy again, although just as with catchers, the chance of a career-ending concussion increases with every concussion the player sustains. If he is truly healthy and with his option at a net $4.8 million ($5.5 million option less the $700K buyout), I would have solidified the leadoff spot and outfield defense by exercising the option.
A play for Justin Upton or Yoenis Cespedes seems unlikely to be affordable, but Garcia Parra is a good offensive and defensive player who can play all three outfield positions. Franklin Gutierrez has had a heck of a time staying healthy in his career. He missed all of 2014 and much of last season. But when he did play in 2015, he hit 15 homers in 171 at bats while playing in a pitchers' park in Seattle. A handful of other free agent outfielders seem to be possible targets or fall-backs.
Any money the Giants spend on the outfield will come at the expense of money available to fill their primary need of one or preferably two quality starting pitchers. They do have a need, with only Hunter Pence under contract beyond this season. If they can sign Parra, Gutierrez or one of the other available outfielders without spending much more than they would have spent on Aoki (who also would have been under contract only through this season), perhaps this forward-looking move before it HAS to be made will prove to be well-timed and prudent of a team balancing this season with the next several in its window of opportunity. The Giants might be a step ahead of us on this one.
Still, I would have exercise the Aoki option, if only to trade him. Maybe his health makes him difficult to trade now though. The closer I look at this one, the more willing I am to give them the benefit of the doubt on this one. I hate to see money taken away from the rotation, but the Giants could be bereft in the outfield a year from now.
Marlon Byrd:
As expected, the Giants aren't exercising their option on Byrd either. He's a viable option in the weak side of a platoon and he's said to be a good team player, but he's also 38 years old. He and Aoki could still be fall-back options, possibly even in a combined platoon. Because of his age (almost 34), Aoki seems the more likely to return, but the Giants no doubt also like Byrd's power.
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 6, 2015 9:21:15 GMT -5
More than anything, I think not picking up the option stems largely from the season Blanco had.
Aoki, in my opinion, was picked up last season as starter in LF, but more importantly a replacement leadoff hitter if Pagan doesn't perform. And last year they didn't have faith in Blanco's ability to fill that role, now I believe they do. Or maybe they have plans for Tomlinson in LF. And of course, Parker coming up and having the September he had also impacts the Aoki decision.
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sfgdood
Long time member 
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Nov 6, 2015 11:33:27 GMT -5
I think Cespedes could be a great add...but not if they are then going to go cheap on pitching. If Byrd is where they are going, I wouldn't mind as long as they get a top tier and a second tier starter
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 6, 2015 12:32:22 GMT -5
Cespedes would be nice, Upton, Heyward...I'd kind of like a lefty because the core of our offense (Duffy, Posey, Pence) are all right handed. And Belt, though I like him, still hasn't proven to be a legit middle of the order consistent bat.
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Post by Rog on Nov 6, 2015 13:06:59 GMT -5
The Giants have added the outfield to their primary need in the rotation. Evans is talking about depth, but since they didn't exercise the option of either Aoki or Byrd, it sounds like they are going after a bigger fish. Right now, Gregor Blanco is the Giants' starting left fielder. With the question about Pagan's health, I'm sure the Giants prefer Gregor as the #4. Evans indicated the Giants had an interest in signing Aoki later but wanted the added salary flexibility for now. (I think the Giants have a LOT of money to spend now, but I'll have to look that up again.)
The Giants haven't opened talks with Mike Leake during the five days they have the exclusive rights to talk to him, but Evans said he was interested in talking to him when free agency opens tomorrow. That seems really strange, but it probably indicates that Leake isn't the Giants' #1 rotation priority (Aren't you glad?) and that Leake himself wants to see what his value is on the open market and the Arizona Diamondbacks in particular. I suspect mutual interest still exists there, but as the Giants did with players such as Jake Peavy and Sergio Romo, whom they later signed, the Giants have told Leake that they are committed other directions first.
So what does this all mean?
First of all, the Giants are stressing flexibility to the point where they didn't spend just $5 million on Aoki. Sounds like they're trying to fit into their budget either two really big moves or one big move and two lesser one. At least one move would come in the rotation and one in the outfield.
The Giants still appear to be going after at least one of the big fish (Price, Greinke, Zimmermann or Cueto). There are a handful of mid-tier pitchers out there (Anderson, Lackey, Fister and others have been mentioned), and the Giants might try to find one who is less expensive and/or will command fewer years than Leake if they are able to sign a big fish. That would leave money for the outfield.
If the Giants don't land a big fish in the rotation, they might go after one in the outfield (Cespeded, Upton, Gordon). Gordon is coming out of a solid clubhouse and would clearly be defined as a winner. They might also try to land the next two rotation fish (possibly Kazmir and Leake) if they are unsuccessful in the deeper water.
Landing one of the top starters would seem to be a key. If that happened and they were also able to land a top outfielder, they might be content with a rotation of say Price, Bumgarner, Peavy and two of the trio of Cain, Heston and Clayton Blackburn of the 2.85 Pacific Coast League ERA. If they sign a top starter, the Giants might also be predisposed to take a risk on a lesser second free agent starter who has warts but some upside.
Apparently there has been a whirlwind of trade talk at the general manager meetings, and a flurry of early trades is expected. The Giants now have some trading fodder, so that is certainly another possible avenue toward improvement.
Kelby Tomlinson got a crash course in the outfield, but apparently it was clear that wasn't his natural position. Sounds like his progress was less than expected despite heavy tutoring. Tomlinson might play in the Mexican League this winter, perhaps allowing him to continue his education there. He, Jarrett Parker and Mac Williamson remain backup options, but the Giants clearly don't think that is enough.
It would be to the Giants' great advantage if the top starter or starters they target sign quickly, whether with the Giants or elsewhere. They have built flexibility to move in several directions, but won't want to miss out on an attractive option in one area because they are still committed to one or more of the big pitchers. I feel the Giants are in position to match or exceed any offer that is even semi-reasonable for a top starter, but how long will they be able to wait? If the pool of the top four begins to wane, they may be making take-it-or-leave-it offers as they did with James Shields last season so they can move on if necessary.
With just one outfielder signed beyond 2015, the Giants might be looking for TWO outfielders, not just one. That would clearly dilute their rotation money, which unless they are able to add a big fish or at two pretty big ones, I'm not in favor of. One way they might add an outfielder or outfielders is to trade for a young one who like Andrew Susac, whom I guessing would be part of the trade. That could allow the Giants to acquire a good outfielder without adding a large salary commitment.
I can't imagine the Giants' feeling that they need to improve at catcher or in the infield, but they could be looking for added depth in the bullpen or even the infield. That would also take up money, of course, so I suspect those areas would be well down on the list.
The bottom line is that the Giants have added the outfield to their top priority of starting pitching. And they've stated that they are emphasizing flexibility, by definition allowing them to move in more than one direction if necessary.
Should be an exciting off-season.
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 6, 2015 18:00:34 GMT -5
I was disappointed to see us let Aoki go.
I've been beating this drum a long, long time.
1-Pagan is NOT a lead off hitter.
2-Without Aoki, we don't have one.
As to Upton, Mark has reminded us that Upton said he HATES our ballpark, and won't play here.
Signing Heyward is nice... but who leads off?
Same with Cespedes. Great hitter, but WHO leads off?
We sign a power guy, and likely we become a station-to-station team.
No speed at all outside of Pence, and Pagan, whom I don't want to see starting.
And Rog, "exciting" offseason is not the word I'd use to descibe my feelings.
Scary.
Frightening.
Questionable.
Worried.
Uncertain.
All would be better words for me that exciting.
boly
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Post by Rog on Nov 7, 2015 2:52:32 GMT -5
Scary. Exhilarating.
Frightening. Invigorating.
Questionable. Hopeful.
Worried. Excited.
Uncertain. Enticing.
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Post by Rog on Nov 7, 2015 3:04:41 GMT -5
1-Pagan is NOT a lead off hitter. 2-Without Aoki, we don't have one. I too was sorry to see Aoki go (although I think he is still involved in a contingency plan), but the Giants do have capable leadoff men in Blanco, Duffy and Panik. Blanco would have been the best last season with a .368 OBP and 13 steals in 18 attempts. Duffy's OBP was a bit deficient at .334, but it he again hits .295 or higher, that will improve. He went a perfect 12 for 12 in stolen bases. In his essentially two and a half season in the minors, he was 55 out of 67. He is considered by some to be the Giants' best base runner. Panik isn't a burner, but he's a solid base runner with a .378 OBP last season. All three of those guys were right up there with Aoki last season in terms of leadoff skills. Speaking of Aoki, we talked last winter about his amazing consistency in batting averages. He hit .288, .286 and .285 in his first three seasons. "Last season he weighed in at .287, meaning in his first four seasons he hit .285, .286, .287 and .288. I'm going to guess that is the most consistent of any hitter in his first four season. Hard for anyone to have beaten it. That came with three different teams too. Aoki's line last season was .287/.353/.380. His career makr is .287/.353/.386. Has anyone ever been that consistent? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3114/giants-reject-nori-aokis-option?page=1#ixzz3qn36BqeL |
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Post by Rog on Nov 7, 2015 3:06:18 GMT -5
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Post by Rog on Nov 7, 2015 3:15:12 GMT -5
Signing Heyward is nice... but who leads off? Rog -- Well, how about ... Heyward? He has a .353 career OBP and has stolen 43 bases in 50 attempts the past two seasons. If Jason had been with the Giants last season, he would have had their 3rd-highest OBP and been easily their best base stealer. We think of Jason as a power hitter, yet he had only 13 homers in 2015. Heyward is a very good player because his all-around abilities, not his power, which has been just below the level of Brandon Belt. Heyward is a different player than we thought he was, isn't he? His best abilities are in the field, where he has been worth nearly five runs the past two seasons. If Jason came to the Giants, Hunter Pence should move to left field. I don't think Heyward would make a good center fielder, but he might be better than Pagan. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3114/giants-reject-nori-aokis-option?page=1#ixzz3qn6UBpC3 |
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Post by rxmeister on Nov 7, 2015 8:21:07 GMT -5
Newsday is predicting we sign Cespedes, Leake and Ian Kennedy. Jim Bowden linked us to Cespedes too. Don't know if they know something or are just guessing that our declining of Byrd and Aoki's option means we're looking big at LF. Bobby Evans pretty much closed the door on Greinke on Thursday in a radio interview, saying he's too old for a 200 million contract, and I'm starting to wonder if the Giants are serious about taking a run at a big pitcher. Maybe the Zito and Cain contracts have scared them off, or maybe they have faith in the futures of Blackburn, Beede and Bickford. Guess one day they'll join Bumgarner in a Killer Bees rotation.
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Post by Rog on Nov 7, 2015 10:23:58 GMT -5
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 7, 2015 10:53:05 GMT -5
Mark-Newsday is predicting we sign Cespedes, Leake and Ian Kennedy. Jim Bowden linked us to Cespedes too. Don't know if they know something or are just guessing that our declining of Byrd and Aoki's option means we're looking big at LF. Bobby Evans pretty much closed the door on Greinke on
****BOLY SAYS*****
If this turns out to be true, my biggest fears will have been realized, and would also solidify my point about Giant management. They won't sign a front line starter.
I like Leake, I still like Kennedy, but neither are top of the rotation guys.
That means, IF they do this, same old same old...
As to Cespedes. We DON'T need a power hitting IN LIEU of great starting pitching.
We flat out don't.
Yeah, Cain MAY BOUNCE BACK.
May.
I'm not hanging my hat on THAT hope.
Bumgarner
Leake
Cain
Peavy
Kennedy?
Welcome back to second or third place, and enjoy another year where we don't make the post season.
And Rog, if THOSE kind of signings make your off season:
Scary. Exhilarating.
Frightening. Invigorating.
Questionable. Hopeful.
Worried. Excited.
Uncertain. Enticing.
I suggest you take up sky diving with Kleenex tissues for a chute from low altitdues, or bungie jumping from a 40 foot bridge with 50 feet of bungie chord.
boly
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 7, 2015 10:56:41 GMT -5
1-Pagan is NOT a lead off hitter.
2-Without Aoki, we don't have one.
I too was sorry to see Aoki go (although I think he is still involved in a contingency plan), but the Giants do have capable leadoff men in Blanco, Duffy and Panik. Blanco would have been the best last season with a .368 OBP and 13 steals in 18 attempts.
Duffy's OBP was a bit deficient at .334, but it he again hits .295 or higher, that will improve. He went a perfect 12 for 12 in stolen bases. In his essentially two and a half season in the minors, he was 55 out of 67. He is considered by some to be the Giants' best base runner.
Panik isn't a burner, but he's a solid base runner with a .378 OBP last season.
Boagie- You picked the first three names I considered when Boly posed the question, which means we might be onto something. All three of these guys would be a solid leadoff hitter.
Duffy, as you mentioned, didn't really have the OBP for it, but it should be noted: when given the task to do something different Duffy has yet to dissapoint.
One name I'd add to your suggestions is Tomlinson, if he finds a starting spot.
But, before we dig too deep into this topic, maybe the more important question we should be asking is who is good enough to convince Bochy that Pagan shouldn't be leading off? I don't believe anyone is that good. So we might as well just consider Pagan leading off a done deal. This is one of those very few things that Bochy does that irritates me.
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Post by Rog on Nov 7, 2015 11:53:02 GMT -5
Bobby Evans pretty much closed the door on Greinke on Thursday in a radio interview, saying he's too old for a 200 million contract, Rog -- That Evans mentioned it likely means the Giants are planning to go in another direction. I know you and others would say that the Price is right no matter how much the cost. (Making a play on words; with the exception of Randy, not literally.) Here is one other possibility regarding Greinke though. Because of his age I don't think Zack WILL get $200 million (although the Dodgers might make a liar out of me). The Giants could make a sneak attack for Greinke and sign him for "only" 6/$175, which would make most Giants fans happy and would allow the Giants to say that they didn't believe that Zack was worth $200 million, but that they didn't have to spend that much to get him. One implication of what Evans said might be that the Giants DO feel Price is worth $200 million, and that would at least put them in the ballpark if they go after him. I haven't decided yet if I think the best direction would be Cueto, but I'm going to make a case for him: First and foremost, the Giants wouldn't lose a draft choice, since the Royals don't have the option of making a qualifying offer to a traded player. The Giants have shown a reluctance to lose a pick, and we need look no further than a guy like Joe Panik to know why. Joe was a #29 overall pick in 2011. The Giants will be picking higher than that next June -- unless they forfeit their pick by signing a free agent who received a qualifying offer. (As an aside, Yoenis Cespeded isn't eligible for a qualifying offer either.) Second, if we look at several of Cueto's Royals starts as aberrations, we see he has pitched extremely well for a significant period. His ERA's in 2011 through 2014 were 2.31, 2.78, 2.82 (injury-shortened season) and 2.25 -- all in a hitters' park. Johnny continue the trend with a 2.62 ERA for the Reds in 2015, but after yielding just three runs over 24 innings in his first three starts with the Royals, he hit a slump where he posted a 9.57 ERA in his next five starts. Take those five starts out, and his ERA would have been 2.522. Anytime we take five bad starts out of a pitchers' ERA, we get a much-improved ERA, but perhaps there was a medical reason for the slump. If it were only temporary, that shouldn't pose a problem. And he did finish his postseason by allowing only two hits and one run in a shutout in Game 2 of the World Series. I think Johnny will get quite a bit more than the rumored 5/$80, and Boly says (without concrete examples) that he is a bad clubhouse influence. But with the exception of only 60.2 innings in 2013, he's been quite durable, averaging 194 innings in his other seven major league seasons. he's finished 2nd and 4th in the Cy Young voting in two of the past four seasons. He's just 29 years old (turning 30 just before pitchers and catchers report). On the downside, since his first two seasons, his Fielding Independent Pitching has been far higher than his ERA since his first two seasons, and he did pitch only 60 innings in 2013. But over the past five seasons his ERA has been just 2.71, and his WHIP has never been higher than 1.17, hitting a low of 0.96 as recently as 2014. His walk rate has been 2.0 or below in each of the past three seasons, so he has good control. With the exception of 2014 when he struck out nearly a batter per inning, he hasn't been a big strikeout guy. Another downside is that his fastball was considered to be his only positive pitch last season. And his fastball dropped by six-tenths of a mile last season. He's still at 92.2 though, which is actually two ticks above his 92.0 in 2011, when he had his first excellent season. His ground ball rate is down, but that might be masked a bit at AT&T Park. Even pitching most of his home games in Cincinnati, his home run rate of 0.9 per nine is just below league average. He's limited hitters to just a .236 batting average. His nickname of Johnny Beisbol is a very positive baseball nickname, which might be an indication that he is well liked in the clubhouse. Not much there, but we haven't seen anything stronger to indicate he's bad in the clubhouse, and he certainly wasn't a bad enough influence to prevent the Royals from winning the World Series. I still like David Price better. David's fastball velocity went UP one mph last season. But it may be that Cueto will be available for little more than half the long-term dollar commitment it takes to land David, so clearly the, er, price would be much better. Here's the thing. There is so much we don't know. That's why the Giants have scouts, and with the Royals going all the way to the World Series, I would think the Giants had plenty of opportunity to scout Johnny. Let's remember too that whether it means anything or not, he's been a much better NL pitcher than AL hurler. Even with his abbreviated 2013 season, Fan Graphs rates Cueto at 20 WAR over the past five season. At 5/$100, he'd need to be at only a dozen wins the next five seasons to earn his keep. Again, there may be things we don't know. But based on what we do know, Johnny could be a bargain. Among the top four starters, he could be THE bargain. Maybe Johnny winds up getting 5/$110 to 5/$120. He still sounds like a good value unless his arm is beginning to fall apart. Does this change your thinking at all Boly? If not, I presume it is because you still think Cueto is a bad clubhouse influence. Could you show us something more concrete to illustrate your point? Right now the best theory we've got is Boagie's point that Johnny's hair is like Manny Ramirez's. I haven't been able to find anything on the internet that indicates Cueto is a negative to team chemistry. The little I've found indicates the opposite. With the departure of Sandoval and the likely departure of Pagan within the next year, the Giants might benefit from some Latin leadership in the clubhouse. The World Champion Kansas City Royals seemed to think Johnny would provide that. Even if he didn't, it wasn't bad enough to hurt the Royals significantly. Cueto was a bit of a disappointment to the Royals on the mound, but it doesn't appear he was disappointing in the clubhouse. Since Madison came into the league in late 2010, Cueto has been an even better regular season pitcher than Madison has. While pitching in a much tougher ballpark. If we think Cespedes is a strong outfield answer, I believe the Giants could afford both Cueto and Yoenis. I believe the Giants could easily afford to reunite Cueto with Mike Leake. Perhaps the flexibility the Giants mentioned involves being able to shift dollars between targets such as Price, Cueto, Zimmermann, Cespedes and Leake. Jason Heyward might make a good target. Alex Gordon. Gerardo Parra. Franklin Gutierrez. Maybe a sleeper like John Lackey (2.77 ERA), Doug Fister (2.41 ERA in 2014), Mark Buehrle (15 straight double digit win seasons, including 15-8 last season), Jaime Garcia (2.43 ERA when healthy last season), Marco Estrada (led the AL with 6.7 H/9), Wei-Yin Chen (27-14 the past two seasons)or Scott Kazmir (3.10). Unfortunately, some of those guys won't be cheap either. Fister is from Merced and might be a steal. Names like Fister and Parra aren't sexy, but they both might make good players at AT&T. Gutierrez could be a huge steal if he could stay healthy. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3114/giants-reject-nori-aokis-option?page=1#ixzz3qossOblB |
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Post by Rog on Nov 7, 2015 12:23:53 GMT -5
I realize this is a long shot, but if Boly could somehow be right and Pagan could be tradeable ... I don't think it's a bad idea to lead off with Pagan when he's hot, but when he cools down, he could hit as low as 8th.
Here's a thought. Let's suppose the Giants land Cespedes. Panik, Cespedes, Pence and Posey could bat 2nd through 5th, but does it make sense to have Belt or Duffy hit 7th? Maybe Panik or Duffy moves up.
The theory is that a team's best hitter should bat 2nd, 3rd or 4th. A corollary might be that that team's three best hitters should bat in those spots. Maybe that would mean Panik leading off and Cespedes, Pence and Posey batting #2, #3, #4 (not necessarily in that order). Belt and Duffy #5 and #6. Don't forget Crawford, although to be honest, he may have had his career year last season. (I might examine that later.)
Maybe Belt is a good #2 hitter. He gets on base, and he hardly ever grounds into a double play. If the leadoff man gets on, with Belt batting next, the #3, #4 and #5 hitters are almost certainly to bat with a run in and/or a runner on base.
The Giants don't want to be running with Belt at bat. His contact rate isn't nearly good enough. But since he hits into so few double plays (only 16 in five seasons), it isn't as important to have the leadoff man run. In theory, the #3, #4 and #5 hitters have enough extra base power to score the leadoff hitter from first base.
Think about it. The jobs of the #1 and #2 hitters should be to get on base for #3, #4 and #5. The #2 hitters of today are far better than they have been throughout baseball history. Most teams no longer use the traditional contact, move-the-runner-over hitter at #2. There is a good reason for that. Two, in fact.
First of all, get runners on for the #3, #4 and #5 hitter. Second, maybe the #2 hitter can drive the leadoff man in or at least get him to third with no outs.
A team should put its best hitters up in the order where they can get more at bats. Each spot a batter moves down in the order costs him 18 plate appearances per season on average. When the traditional #2 hitter bats second, he may wind up with 72 more plate appearances than the #6 hitter, who often times is better than the traditional #2 hitter. That's nearly half a plate appearance per game.
Teams are getting much smarter about lineup construction. Let's hope that Bruce Bochy realizes that Angel Pagan is likely to get about 126 more plate appearances batting leadoff than batting 8th and realize that isn't necessarily a good thing.
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 7, 2015 12:35:43 GMT -5
The theory is that a team's best hitter should bat 2nd, 3rd or 4th. A corollary might be that that team's three best hitters should bat in those spots.
Boagie- Not that I disagree with that theory, but I do think that depends on what the rest of the lineup looks like. Some lineups can extend their best hitters deeper into the lineup while keeping the two best purely OBP guys #1 and #2. I'd like to go deeper into this, but I'm running out of time for now.
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Post by Rog on Nov 7, 2015 12:48:30 GMT -5
As to Cespedes. We DON'T need a power hitting IN LIEU of great starting pitching. We flat out don't. Rog -- I agree and disagree. With regard to 2016, I see a top starter as being more important than a guy like Cespedes. But it would also be short-sighted not to note that after this season, the Giants have only Hunter Pence under contract. Unless Tomlinson is a very fast learner and continues to hit (which I'm worried about), the Giants will be bereft of a center fielder. Speaking of Tomlinson, it wouldn't be at all unusual for say three of the four among him, Panik, Crawford and Duffy to regress at the plate this season. I think that is more likely than that three of them will stay the same or improve. With Tomlinson in particular, his minor league average was about .260 prior to last season, and his 336/175 K/BB ratio isn't predictive of success for a hitter with a minor league home run every 200 at bats. He did look good, but he doesn't yet have my confidence. In fact, he's quite a ways from having it. Duffy seems like a guy who might be hitting a little over his head, as well, but he does have an extremely quick bat for inside pitches and a nice ability to go the other way with outside deliveries. Panik was just excellent last season, but it's hard to expect him to continue to hit .312 with an .833 OPS as he did last season. Crawford had a marvelous season last year. As close as I can tell, there was no better shortstop in the majors. But he also swung at a career-high 35% of pitches outside the strike zone. And his contact rate has been down each of the past two seasons, just as he has had his top two years at the plate. Brandon has become a much better power hitter, but he's hit only .246 and .256 the past two seasons. His swinging strike rates have been the highest of his career. Pitchers are beginning to fear him more and are throwing him fewer strikes. Despite that, his career walk rate was near a career low. Brandon may continue his growth as a hitter or at least remain on what is a very nice plateau. But as he's become more aggressive, he's also shown some chinks in the armor of plate discipline, which could hurt him, particularly if he bats eighth (which could easily be the case if Pagan leads off). Injuries and fatigue probably entered into this, but Brandon his only 3 of his 21 homers after August 6th. Can you imagine how Don and Randy would have reacted if that had happened to Buster Posey? Wait! Buster DID have only 3 home runs after August 6th, and Randy certainly has noted it. In Buster's case we attribute it to fatigue, even though he played a lot of first base in September in particular. I'm not sure that has previously been mentioned in Brandon's case. Speaking of home runs, we know Boly is a worry wart, but remember Randy's fear that the Giants might not reach triple digits in home runs? They hit 136, even with Hunter Pence and Brandon Crawford missing a lot of time. Get those two in the lineup for the full season, and the Giants likely would have hit 150. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3114/giants-reject-nori-aokis-option?page=1#ixzz3qpN0nUXE |
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Nov 7, 2015 12:52:37 GMT -5
I guess you can say I'm excited about this offseason because the possibilities are huge...but given this team's track record with FA signings, I'm sort of dreading the potential disappointment. The whole Cespedes/Leake/Kennedy rumor doesn't help.
Is that what Bobby Evans calls being "as good or better" than the Dodgers rotation? Uh, no.
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Post by Rog on Nov 7, 2015 13:45:04 GMT -5
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Post by Rog on Nov 7, 2015 13:47:58 GMT -5
I'm sort of dreading the potential disappointment.
Rog -- I'm not dreading the potential disappointment. I would dread the eventual disappointment.
I too am not sold on the combination of Cespedes, Leake and Kennedy. IMO the Giants have the money to do better.
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 7, 2015 16:18:31 GMT -5
Boagie- Not that I disagree with that theory, but I do think that depends on what the rest of the lineup looks like.
Rog -- You're right. Each situation is a little different. Probably the biggest recent changes in lineup construction are that #2 hitters are better and more powerful
Boagie- I don't know about that exactly. Didn't Ryne Sandberg bat #2? Craig Biggio batted second, arguably the best hitter on the Astros at the time. Nomar Garciaparra. Being one of the better hitters and batting second isn't exactly a new idea. Of course, that depends on what you consider new. I think the most change to lineups nowadays are the hitters #2-#7 need legitimate pop, and its also expected more widely that the catcher and shortstop need to produce offensively. Just seems to me there are more expectations for offensive numbers rather than overall fundamentals.
Not entirely sure a guy like Tim Flannery would get much playing time in today's game and if it were the 80's, Gregor Blanco would definitely be a leadoff hitter with some team.
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 7, 2015 16:39:06 GMT -5
But, before we dig too deep into this topic, maybe the more important question we should be asking is who is good enough to convince Bochy that Pagan shouldn't be leading off? I don't believe anyone is that good. So we might as well just consider Pagan leading off a done deal. This is one of those very few things that Bochy does that irritates me.
****boly says***
BING-FRICKING-GO!, boagie! Well said!
boly
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 7, 2015 16:42:21 GMT -5
First of all, Duffy IS NOT a lead off guy.
He's simply not.
What he IS, is a GREAT #2 kind of hitter. With his ability to go the other way?
That's where I'd rather see him.
IF we can't find a 1 hole guy, and, like boagie says, I don't think we will, Panik is our next best choice.
But HIS speed, at best, at BEST, is above average.
And that's not good enough in our park.
It isn't.
If just ISN'T.
But if push comes to STUPID, I'd rather have Panik there than Pagan.
Which would have my lineup looking like this:
Panik
Duffy
Pence
Posey
Belt
Crawford
LF
Pagan.
boly
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Post by Rog on Nov 7, 2015 20:25:27 GMT -5
Bumgarner Leake Cain Peavy Kennedy? Welcome back to second or third place, and enjoy another year where we don't make the post season. Rog -- Not at all what I want, but something that would rest on the shoulders of Kennedy. That's why I don't think the Giants will go this way. I will be very disappointed if they do. Even if they sign Cespedes, IMO they have the money to do better than this. Interesting, isn't it, that a year ago I was tempering expectations based on the low available money and this year I'm talking them up based on this year's money? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3114/giants-reject-nori-aokis-option#ixzz3qrJ5MB7m |
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Post by Rog on Nov 7, 2015 20:33:47 GMT -5
I had a feeling this would be a number that would surprise, so I looked it up. Despite the deficiencies in the leadoff spot last season, the various leadoff hitters scored 95 runs, second on the team to the #2 hitter (mostly Joe Panik). I think the reason for that is the leadoff hitters combined for a .352 OBP. Their 26 for 36 stolen base percentage wasn't bad (72%), but getting on base contributed much more.
And I think we can live with 95 runs scored out of the leadoff spot. IMO Panik would be the most likely to provide that, although I do expect him to fall back just a bit. Expected that last year too though, and clearly it didn't come close to happening. His IMPROVEMENT was significant.
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 7, 2015 23:08:25 GMT -5
Joe doesn't run well enough to hit one hole, Rog, period.
I don't care what the numbers say. In this case, as in many cases, they are VERY misleading.
Aoki 'could' go from home to first on a long double, Panik cannot!
It's that simple.
When guys hit HRs behind hitters, their runs scored do not.
But speed in that one hole spot plays subtle dividends.
Lack of speed accentuates a perpetual problem.
boly
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Post by Rog on Nov 8, 2015 9:36:53 GMT -5
bungie jumping from a 40 foot bridge with 50 feet of bungie chord. Rog -- That depends on how deep the water is! Incidentally, I have a good friend whose attempt to hang glide from 25,000 feet was thwarted by unusual atmospheric conditions that prevented the balloon he was using to carry him up from getting far off the ground. The attempt happened many years before I knew him, so I suspect that had the attempt gone through, I would never had the pleasure. I don't have too many wild and crazy friends, but I would certainly say Harry heads the group! Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3114/giants-reject-nori-aokis-option#ixzz3quWMtam0 |
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Post by Rog on Nov 8, 2015 10:56:45 GMT -5
Joe doesn't run well enough to hit one hole, Rog, period. I don't care what the numbers say. In this case, as in many cases, they are VERY misleading. Aoki 'could' go from home to first on a long double, Panik cannot! It's that simple. Rog -- Joe DOES run well enough to lead off. Being able to run is a very nice ability for a leadoff man to have, but getting on base is even more important. Going back to what some believe to be the Golden Age of baseball, how much speed did Eddie Yost have? He stole 65 bases in 129 attempts (one attempt over 50%) and hit 47 triples in 18 seasons. Yet Eddie led the American League in runs scored in 1959 and scored over 1200 times in his career while batting leadoff almost exclusively. He scored over 100 runs in five seasons. What was his secret? He got on base 39.4% of the time. As for Aoki's going from first to home while Panik couldn't, my guess is that the difference in their doing so was a small number of runs. First of all, while Aoki certainly could score more often from first base on a double, he didn't always do so. Nor did Panik NEVER do so. Second, Joe likely scored around half the time after stopping at third base. Nori scored once every 9.3 plate appearances. Joe scored once every 7.3. And Joe's OBP was only 25 points higher. Certainly there were different situations involved, but scoring a run in two fewer plate appearances is a very large difference. Would I like a guy who can steal bases as my leadoff man? Of course. But given the choice, I'll take the guy who gets on base. The Giants' own Eddie Stanky was a leadoff hitter who got on base but had no speed once he did. 48 stolen bases. 35 triples. Yet Eddie led the National League in 1945 with 128 runs scored. 128 runs is a lot to score in one season. He scored 115 times in another season. I like Aoki as a leadoff man. He gets on base, and he can run. But he doesn't get on base nearly as well as Yost or Stanky, and his high in runs scored is 81. Nori has scored once every 8.3 plate appearances with his .353 OBP and very good speed. Yost scored once every 7.6 plate appearances. Stanky scored once every 6.7 plate appearances, which is excellent. To put Stanky's accomplishment into perspective, he scored once every 6.7 plate appearances with 29 homers. Willie Mays scored once every 6.1 plate appearances with 660 homers. Willie didn't lead off much, of course, but he did score 100 or more runs in 12 consecutive seasons and 99 in the 13th. Let's take Stanky's 29 homers away from both his runs scored and his plate appearances and do the same with Willie. This will tell us how often each player scored when he actually spent more than 20 seconds on the bases. Now Eddie scores once every 7.0 plate appearances, while Willie scored once every 8.4. Willie batted mostly 3rd and cleanup, but we can see that Eddie didn't have any problem scoring, even though he didn't have much of any speed to speak of. Willie, of course, did, and stole nearly 300 more bases than Eddie. Who is one of the top leadoff men in history? That would be Stanky, who hit just .268 and had little speed. The one thing he did very well though was get on base. And that is the most important thing a leadoff hitter can do. Omar Moreno was considered a very good leadoff man. He stole 487 bases in 5481 plate appearances, which I'm guessing is one of the top 20 ratios in history. His best was 96 steals in 1980. That followed seasons of 71 and 77 steals. Yet Omar scored once every 7.8 plate appearances, or 1.1 more plate appearances per run scored than Stanky. When he came to the plate, Eddie was about 15% more likely to score than Moreno was, even though Omar stole over 440 more bases. The reason? Eddie's OBP was more than 100 points higher than Omar's. Having great speed is a very important asset for a leadoff man. Getting on base is even more important. In fact, saying that speed is more important than getting on base may be putting the cart before the horse. With the exception of pinch running appearances, I've never seen a player steal a base before he got on base. With the same exception, I've never seen a player score a run before getting on base, either. Even in his final seasons, who would have been the best leadoff man for the Giants in their entire history? Barry Bonds. Why? Because he got on base more than 60% of the time during one season and routinely reached base more than 40% of the time. Almost everywhere we look, we see evidence that getting on base is more important for a leadoff man than having speed. Want to know another advantage of having a leadoff man who gets on base? He gives batting order spots 2 through 9 more chances to score and drive in runs than the far speedier guy who doesn't get on base. How does he do that? By making fewer outs. This is a guess on my part, but I'll bet Stanky gave his teammates an extra plate appearance every two games than Moreno did. It's a guess, but I'll bet it's pretty close. Probably a little high, since the slower guys hit into more double plays. Then again, maybe not. Despite his speed, Omar hit into only 17 fewer double plays than Stanky -- in only 45 more plate appearances. Clearly Eddie didn't hit the ball on the ground nearly as often. So let's check it out. Omar made about 32 more outs in his extra 45 plate appearances. Let's subtract those from the Omar's outs made. Omar winds up with 623 more outs made than Stanky. Eddie played in 1256 games. That's just a shade under one plate appearance gained by Eddie over Omar every two games, or about 80 per 162 game season. Oh, but that isn't even it. In those extra 80 plate appearances, the subsequent batters would make about 55 outs, leading to 25 more plate appearances, for a total of 105 more plate appearances. And those 25 more appearances led to only 17 more outs, for an extra 8 appearances. That's 113 plate appearances. And those 8 appearances led to only 5 outs, for an extra e plate appearances. Up to 116. Those final three plate appearances would lead to only two outs, for one more plate appearance added and a total of 117. In round numbers, Eddie's getting on base far more frequently than Omar and getting thrown out far fewer times trying to steal a base led directly to about one extra plate appearance every two game -- and to three every four games either directly or indirectly. Let's assume the average player scored once every 10 plate appearances. That means that based on 670 plate appearances per season, Stanky would score 100 runs, while Moreno would score 86. That's 14 extra runs. Plus, the other players would score 12 more runs. So one could make the argument that over a 162 game season with each player playing 162 games, a team would score about 26 more runs with Stanky as its leadoff hitter than with Moreno -- even though Omar's 487 steals made him far more visible. Yes, it DOES make a difference whether the leadoff man is a guy with great speed who gets on base less often or a slow guy who gets on more. It strongly appears the slow guy allows his team to score quite a few more runs -- as long as he gets on base a fair amount more. Runs have been scored without stolen bases. Barring a forfeit, they haven't been scored without a runner reaching base. That's a long analysis, and there are a few other factors involved that would take me hours to calculate, but those factors could go either way, and likely would affect margin far more than outcome. So go ahead. Refute the argument. I don't think it can be done. If you are able to do so, I'll be highly impressed. Highly impressed. Heck, I might even give you enough credibility to go along with your argument that Brandon Crawford is a better fielder than Andrelton Simmons! Well, probably not -- but I do believe the margin was clearly less this season than ever before, and I do believe Crawford was easily the better overall player. I don't think that's being overly biased for or against Brandon, who just had a SPARKLING season. Probably the best since Rich Aurilia. And Rich's 2001 season was awesome. I think Brandon's season was better than any of Rich's others, which likely means that Brandon's season was the second best by a shortstop in Giants history. I hope I'm not shorting Brandon TOO much! Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3114/giants-reject-nori-aokis-option?page=1#ixzz3quXRp52q |
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 8, 2015 19:09:00 GMT -5
Rog, you can find the odd man here or there to support your argument but it won't hold water.
If flat out won't.
You are picking and choosing numbers to support your case.
Here's mine, and I don't need numbers to prove my point.
As long as you've known me as far as lead off guys go, I've preached 2 things:
(a) They MUST have an OBP of .350 or better to lead off for me on a long term basis.
(b) They MUST be able to run and steal bases. And when I say "steal," I'm not talking 5 or 10 a year. I'm talking a guy with 20+ potential.
Yeah, Panik can lead off, but NO he won't go from first to home on a double into the gap.
I want a lead off guy who can do that.
Guys like Omar Moreno, and Angel Pagan would NOT be hitting one hole for me UNLESS I was pinned with my back agains the wall and had no other choice, I don't CARE how fast they were.
Now IF I can't get the guy I want, I'd SETTLE on a guy like Panik. But make no mistake; the word I mean is SETTLE.
Heck, I'd rather have a guy like Jarret Paker lead off than Pagan.
IF... and that's assuming IF he could get on base some, and hit with power; aka Bobby Bonds.
In Jarret's case, IF he could hit .265 and give me 20+ HRs, he can lead off for me.
But he's NOT the guy I want doing that.
I've given you my scenario IF we have to have Joe in the one hole.
Panik
Duffy
Pence
Posey
Belt
Crawford
LF
Pagan
boly
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