Eddy Julio Martinez mess

[rxmeister]

Apparently Eddy has signed with both the Giants and the Cubs! The dispute has to do with him having different representatives and whether the one who signed him to the Giants was actually authorized to do so. MLB has now stepped in to make a decision and we should know within a week. Apparently the Cubs offer is higher by 500K, so he would obviously prefer that one.

[Rog]

This mucked up situation made me think of Pablo Sandoval's brother. I'm going to speculate -- and this is mere speculation -- that Pablo's brother was the ring leader in Pablo's apparent falling out with the Giants. Often the relatives are more critical of a team that the players are.

There have been examples of tweets and other social media used by brothers and mothers.

If Pablo's brother was the leader, the Giants should be thankful to him. Which now gets me thinking about the philosophy of targeting players and paying them whatever it takes. Let's see how that would have worked if the Giants had wanted to "ensure" a return trip to the World Series.

Pablo Sandoval -- 5/$110

Jon Lester -- 6/$175

James Shields -- 5/$100


Those contracts seem like a good estimate of what it would have taken the Giants to sign those guys. They would have solidified their rotation and the hot corner for years, right?

Well, maybe not. I believe they have the money to sign David Price and Mike Leake. I would rather have that pair than Lester and Shields. And I certainly would rather have Matt Duffy than Pablo.

After this winter, the Giants will likely be at LEAST as good as if they had signed not Pablo. Not Jon. Not James. At least as good as if they had signed all three.

Signing free agents means grossly overpaying (compared to the average money a player makes). The keys are to limit the amount overpaid and the period it is tied up for.

If we are going to criticize the Giants for last winter, we shouldn't be criticizing them for not paying "whatever it takes" for Lester and Shields. We should criticize them for being unable to see the direction Pablo was headed.

As apparently the case with Eddy Martinez, Pablo's situation may have come from his agent. And while they're certainly glad they're still alive with Martinez, they should be thanking their lucky stars for Pablo's brother.

When we talk of the Giants paying "whatever it takes," we should be careful what we wish for. We just might get it.

And Randy, take a look back as Pablo's situation as it stood a year ago. Look objectively this time. Tell us what it was that you missed when you were so strongly on the Pablo bandwagon, which was moving along on faulty wheels.

[sfgdood]

I'll tell you what I didn't miss...

Career .294 hitter
2 AS game appearances
2 time gold glove award finalist
WS MVP
29 years old

What you missed...Casey McGehee sucks

[rxmeister]

But Casey McGee sucked for 5 million dollars. Pablo sucked for 19 times the expenditure!

[Islandboagie]

That's the part Randy refuses to acknowledge, Mark. No point in trying to convince him.

[sfgdood]

I did miss the part where Pablo got benched in favor of a rookie who was a middle infielder before...then got released

[Islandboagie]

If the Redsox could release Sandoval and only eat 4.8 million, they would in a heartbeat. And they'd eat every penny if they could trade him for Matt Duffy.

[Rog]

I'll tell you what I didn't miss...

Career .294 hitter
2 AS game appearances
2 time gold glove award finalist
WS MVP
29 years old

What you missed...Casey McGehee sucks


Rog -- Casey McGehee sucks now, but as a reigning National League Comeback Player of the Year, he didn't a year ago. You can say, but yeah, that was looking backward when the Giants needed to be looking forward, and you are right.

But that's exactly what you are doing here with Pablo. You're looking at the averages of his career, which were good indeed. What the shrewder of us were looking at was his TREND and the physical risks of his weight problems. We overlooked much of his injury history because he had no more hamate bones.

You could say the rest of us made a mistake with Casey McGehee. But we made a 1/$5 mistake. You would have made a 5/$95 mistake (or higher, since you philosophy is to pay what it takes).

Let's ask ourselves this question: Are the Giants better off as they stand now, or would they be better off with Pablo and the remaining 4/$75? If you chose the former, you're agreeing that the Giants were saved from themselves.

I find it ironic that you criticize the Giants for not making a move that clearly would have placed them in a hole, while Boly is prepared to criticize them for not making deals he himself wouldn't make. What am I missing here, guys? You guys are sharp, so I must be missing something.




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[Rog]

I'm getting tired of being told what I missed, when I didn't miss anything at all.

That's not to say I NEVER miss anything. I certainly do. But it's hard to miss that Casey McGehee had a horrible year, isn't it?

It was also hard to miss the downward spiral Pablo was caught in a year ago. I doubt you missed it, Randy. But I certainly don't think you gave it enough credence in your evaluation.

As an example, you mentioned that Pablo's career average with the Giants was .294. But you should have been noticing instead that his OPS had been decreasing from .909 to .789 to .758 to .739. You should have noticed that his OPS right-handed had been decreasing from .723 to .686 to .563, rending him essentially a platoon player. (His OPS right-handed this past season slipped all the way to .465, which was merely a continuation of his trend.)

Your telling us that Pablo was a career .294 hitter is like telling us Tim Lincecum has a 3.61 career ERA. Neither meant/means much in its present context.

IMO it would be better to put Pablo behind you as a big blunder instead of lamely trying to justify was clearly would have been a bad decision.

By the way, I'm not saying Pablo can't bounce back. But I am saying that it is highly unlikely that his 5/$95 contract will turn out to be a good one. And that when he signed it, the handwriting was clearly already on the wall.

If one goes to FanGraphs.com, he can see a player's year-by-year history in many meaningful areas. Looking at Fan Graphs and Baseball-Reference a year ago, we could easily see that Pablo's contract wasn't likely to be a good one. Because of the risks of arm health, it's REALLY hard to project a pitcher of a long period of time, but go to Fan Graphs and see if you don't agree that David Price's trend doesn't look bright.

Not bright enough to pay him whatever it takes regardless of how much that is, but IMO bright enough to take what Boly is right is a very high risk with a seven-year-contract that will likely exceed $200 million.

To get an idea of how high $200 million is, the highest contracts signed by Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner combine for $203 million. With hindsight, even at a $203 million total, only the contract of Bumgarner could be viewed as a good one among the three.

What it comes down to is, how much do we want Price. In Randy's case, it is clearly enough to get him, but might well be far too much. In Boly's case he wants Price badly, but isn't willing to come close to market price.

I predicted 7/$215 to sign Price. Is he worth that much to the Giants? I'm going to gulp hard and say yes. Even knowing that the downside risk is higher than the upside. In a best-case scenario, the Giants will have gotten a reasonable deal. In a worst-case situation, it could prove to be a disaster even bigger than Barry Zito. I think that's why Boly wouldn't go that high.

It's hard to disagree with Boly on that one. But it also means he would have next to no chance of having David in the Giants' rotation next season.

[Rog]

I did miss the part where Pablo got benched in favor of a rookie who was a middle infielder before...then got released


Rog -- Come on, Randy. Where is your perspective? You're making yourself look like a fool. Why are you even thinking -- let alone trying to get us to think -- that McGehee at 1/$5 was close to being as damaging as Pablo would have been at 5/$95? If the Giants want Pablo back, I'll bet they could get the Red Sox to eat a lot of that contract.




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[sfgdood]

Since only 1 year of Pablo's contract has as yet played out, none of us know that the contract will be damaging at all, in total. I'm only commenting on what we already know...not what you are assuming you know.

[sfgdood]

Let's look at some other deals.

Matt Cain...6 years at 127 mil. The first year of it was stellar as we had come to expect from Matt and befitting the highest paid right hander in the bigs, which he was at the time. After that he has been nothing short of ugly. The contract, by some stats geek measures, can be said to have been quite "damaging" over the last 3 seasons. But the Giants did win a title in those three years so an argument could be made that it wasn't too damaging.

Barry Zito. His contract was described by many as disastrous or worse...and yet the Giants won TWO titles during the contract and he actually contributed BIG to one of them.

Now, Pablo's deal doesn't look great right now and of course the unexpected emergence of Matt Duffy gives Giants fans good cause to be relieved. But looking at the Pablo deal and the McGehee trade/signing within the prism of 2015 only, I think it's quite clear the McGehee deal turned out worse. Just think if Duffy didn't work out very well and we were forced to watch 6-4-3 McGehee all year...ouch. Now we would have had the holes in the rotation to fill AND a third base problem as well.

Pablo could obviously continue as he has, as could the Sox. But it's also possible that the Sox and/or Pablo could turn things around. We shall see.

[Rog]

Since only 1 year of Pablo's contract has as yet played out, none of us know that the contract will be damaging at all, in total. I'm only commenting on what we already know...not what you are assuming you know.


Rog -- You're right, Randy, that Pablo's contract is only 20% over. But in reality, no one was worried about his FIRST season of the contract. Maybe not the second or even the third. But we were worried about the contract the longer it went, since Pablo clearly has body weight issues that have aged his body more quickly than usual from an athletic standpoint.

In order for Pablo's contract to be a good one, his next four seasons will need to be better than his past four. Given that he is leaving prime age, how likely is that? Pable has regressed at the plate each of his past four seasons. He needs to reverse that trend and improve back closer to where he was in 2011 in order to earn his contract.

Pablo was being paid last season to be a star or very close to it. Instead, he played below the level of a replacement player. That makes it very difficult to earn his contract. What makes it even more difficult is that he isn't physically fit and his body likely is aging at an accelerated rate.

It's not that Pablo couldn't turn things around so much as it is how MUCH he would have to turn it around. Pablo just doesn't seem to be the player he once was. And his decline has continued, so he is becoming less and less that player.

Let me ask you again: Why didn't you see that he was in decline when it was clear that he was?




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[Rog]

looking at the Pablo deal and the McGehee trade/signing within the prism of 2015 only, I think it's quite clear the McGehee deal turned out worse.


Rog -- If you were thinking more objectively, you wouldn't come close to feeling that way. Casey (-0.6 WAR) hurt the Giants less last season than Pablo )-0.9 WAR) and cost a third as much. Looking at the prism of 2015 only, the deal doesn't look as BAD as it looks with four years left, but it still looks very bad.

You just can't pay $19 million a year to a guy with negative WAR and not be hurt by it.

You mentioned Barry Zito, and you are right that after one season we and the Giants weren't very pleased with his deal. Yet Barry posted a 2.0 WAR, meaning he was worth essentially three more wins than Pablo was worth in the first season of Pablo's contract. Barry obviously didn't come close to earning his contract, but he did perform to the tune of 3.0 WAR over the seven years.

I still wouldn't expect it, but it is possible that over the four remaining years of Pablo's contact he will still remain negative in his cumulative WAR. In fact, I would say that possibility is probably greater than his earning his contract.

I agree with you that the jury is still out on Pablo. But as he enters round three out of ten, he's way behind on points. In baseball terms, the season is a fifth of the way over and Pablo is already a dozen games back. He's not done, but the fat lady is already singing arpeggios.

Step back and take an OBJECTIVE look, and I think you'll realize you've really put yourself out on a limb here. Right now you seem to be ignoring reality. You're taking close to the most positive possible slant on Pablo while taking close to the most negative possible slant on the Giants.




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