2016

[Islandboagie]

Maybe it's too early, maybe the dust hasn't settled just yet. But to ease my own mind, it's time to talk about the positives and look forward to 2016. Yup, Randy, I got my glass of Kool-aid, and I know you'll be the first to notice when it's half empty.

Randy has mentioned numerous times how people are happy with this season, I seriously doubt it. For me, unless they win the World Series it's a disappointing season, but that doesn't mean there weren't any positives this season.

The Positives:

Chemistry- I believe the Giants answered the question Rog always poses to this board. Does winning create good chemistry?

Well..they didn't win. Players struggled, injuries were rampant throughout the clubhouse, but they still fought to the end. If you compare that to the Washington Nationals it's plain to see the Giants have something special in the clubhouse whether they win or lose.

Matt Duffy- I'm biased here, Duffy has become one of my favorites, I doubt I'm alone. If you thought he wasn't ready for the big leagues, you were wrong. If you thought he didn't have enough power to start at third, you were wrong. If you doubted his defense, you were wrong.

Not only was he able to answer some of those questions, he also hit in the third spot in the lineup for much of the season, and he excelled at just about everything he did while under the pressure of being in the "large" shadow of Pablo Sandoval.

Chris Heston- Heston's first half was much better than his second half. But his pitches have good movement. If he's not in the rotation next year, I think he'll be considered for a long relief role. I'd like to see the Giants go after one of the big names and plug him in with Bumgarner, Cain, Peavy and Heston.

Kelby Tomlinson- Much like Duffy, he impressed me a lot. I like his approach at the plate, and his speed is a nice bonus. Defensively, he's a little iffy, but as time went on he seemed to gain confidence in his own ability with the glove. Can he play centerfield? It would be nice, and I think he should be given the chance early in spring training, but as it stands now, he's a very good super sub.

The Backup Catchers- The second half this season showed we have some depth at the catcher position, which gives us some trading chips this off season if the free agent market doesn't pan out. I like Susac and Brown. Williams or Sanchez can provide depth there if we use Brown or Susac as trade bait. Either way, I like our crop of catchers we have moving forward.

Outfield Depth- We, or at least I have been following Mac Williamson, and Jarrett Parker for a while now. Both have major league power, I believe either one could hit 20 homeruns now at the major league level, but it's questionable if they can both hit or get on base with some consistency.

Parker is well rounded with power and speed and would make a nice addition to our bench. I'm kind of leaning towards him.

I heard Williamson on KNBR last season and I was impressed. He gave a full breakdown of the stadiums he played in, the dimensions and how well the ball travels in certain conditions, day or night. He seems like he does his homework.

Both will get strong consideration next spring. Whoever wins the job will form a nice contrast with Blanco as the backup outfielder.

Overall Depth- I don't think any team can be riddled with so many injuries and still end up over .500 without some good depth in their system. We've been hearing from some of our posters how our system is dried up. It's true that we haven't had any studs like Posey or Bumgarner come through the ranks since 2010. But since then we've had a number of solid major leaguers emerge from our minor league system. Not many teams have that kind of success rate especially while still winning Championships. Perhaps those who criticize aren't as knowledgeable about the system as they'd like to believe.

I still miss Marc's minor league updates, he gave us a really good breakdown of what was happening in the minors. I try to follow the minor league news as much as possible, but Marc helped me considerably in who I should be following.

I could list more positives, but these are the main ones. Obviously Hunter Strickland and Josh Osich had nice seasons. Peavy was good during the second half. Cain's last start was a solid one.

To sum it up, we obviously have to take a long look at our pitching staff, starters and relievers, but as the position players go, I'd be fine seeing the same guys, they just need to be healthy.

Projected 2016 lineup (with Tomlinson in CF)

Aoki
Panik
Duffy
Posey
Pence
Belt
Tomlinson
Crawford

Seems very solid to me.

[sfgdood]

Chris Heston- Heston's first half was much better than his second half. But his pitches have good movement. If he's not in the rotation next year, I think he'll be considered for a long relief role. I'd like to see the Giants go after one of the big names and plug him in with Bumgarner, Cain, Peavy and Heston.

Dood - unless the "plug in" guy is Price, Zimmerman or Cueto, you can expect 2016 to look very similar to 2015. Personally I want two FAs with one being one of the top 3. If we get one or two cut rate guys again, I'll be convinced management doesn't give a crap about winning.

[Rog]

I asked how high we would go for, say, Price or Greinke if Zack becomes available. Any comments?

Not sure about this from a chemistry standpoint, but it may be that the bargain among the top guys will be Cueto, who is coming off a bad season. Jon Lester showed last winter how overrated the season before free agency can be.

By the way, a "bad" season from Cueto turned out to be a 3.44 ERA in 212 innings, along with a 1.13 WHIP. But Cueto may be remembers more for his poor finish to the season with the Royals than for his great start with the Reds.

Here's the thing about Cueto with the Royals though. His middle starts for them were horrible, but he posted a 2.25 ERA in his first four and a 3.24 mark in his last four. Johnny will have no shortage of suitors, and his contract will very likely be very big. He certainly looks like a better pitcher than Jon Lester, and we know what Lester got.

Jordan Zimmermann has been rumored to the Giants, likely because of the big 3 or 4, his salary is likely to be the lowest. Jordan too is coming off a down season (1.20 WHIP with a 3.66 ERA). But wouldn't we rather have Zimmermann than Lester?

The top guys are going to be expensive. Want a clue as to how much? If Zack Greinke goes on the open market, he will be planning on receiving more than the $24.7 million his present contract provides. In that case, he could wind up with $30 million per season, as Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer did. The Price will obviously be right for David as well.

I just saw that Bleacher Report ranked Mike Leake as the #12 free agent, with Greinke #12 and Price #2. I think Zimmermann was like #6, and I'm not sure where Cueto was (#4?). I believe Kazmir was #11.

Kazmir and Leake were mentioned as a possibility. I know many if not most would be disappointed, but would be looking at something like $35 million per? Bobby Evans said the Giants were also looking at the international market, and there are some good pitchers available there, with perhaps a small number already major-league ready.

The Giants are impressed with Clayton Blackburn's 2.85 ERA in the hitter-heavy Pacific Coast League. I think he and Heston will give them the confidence to go higher for one guy. They aren't ready to leap into a deal with Mike Leake. I think Mike right now is like Jake Peavy last winter -- a fallback position. I would love to see the Giants land both Leake and Zimmermann, but that would likely take about $40 million per. That would have the Giants spending about $60 million per on that pair and Matt Cain, with Madison Bumgarner also into fairly heavy change.

Going forward, the Giants may get away from Cain's contract fairly soon, but they would have long commitments to Bumgarner and the new pair.

The Giants may be deciding BETWEEN Marlon Byrd and Nori Aoki, and that may come down to how much/little Byrd would take. Byrd would form the better semi-platoon with Gregor Blanco, while Aoki was one of the free agent bargains this past winter.

Yusmeiro Petit is expected to go, with Cody Hall having been mentioned as a possible replacement. Or maybe that would be either Heston or Blackburn.

The nice (not great by any means) performance by Brown could make Andrew Susac available for trade. I wouldn't see why the Giants would simply let Aoki walk, so they might re-sign him and make him available too. They're going to have to give up something if they want to trade for something like a starter. Might be good lame duck guys available in trade.

In what I would consider an overrate, Bleacher Reports picked Sergio Romo as their #11 reliever. Unless I missed him, Santiago Casilla didn't make the top 30. Although I don't expect the Giants to go that way, there are good free agent relievers available too. Most of them will get a lot of money though, and it will be tough for them to earn their new contract.

No doubt the Giants would like a new center fielder. No doubt Angel Pagan would be hard to trade for the same reason the Giants would like to replace him.

Bobby Evans said we shouldn't expect the Giants to solve their rotation problems "for the next seven years." That sounds like one starting pitcher rather than two. Or maybe the Giants will go for two less expensive guys (which would no doubt be wildly received here). I strongly believe though that their first choice is to make a splash with one of the big guys.

I saw one idea that the Giants would go after Greinke if he is available, if only to drive up the price for the Dodgers. The free agent starter market is rich this season, but that will be in more ways than one.

[klaiggeb]

Boagie, what a great assessment!

Some of our kids flat out knocked our socks off!

And that doesn't happen every year.

Last year, Panik, and to a lesser extent, Susac and Duffy.

This year, Duffy, Tomlinson, Osich and to a lesser extent, Brown and Heston.

They get the pitching, this team, if it stays healthy, has more than a legit shot!

boly

[Rog]

I'll ask again. How high would we go for Price? How high would we go for Cueto? How high would we go for Zimmermann?

If we don't answer these questions in advance, we shouldn't criticize the Giants for not going after them hard enough. Let's not be playing Monday morning GM here. Let's get down to business with how we would get down to business. Remember that the Giants have said they will spend about $190 million. I suspect they would go a little higher if they could get the right combination of players. Remember that they would likely front-load some of the contracts, so that we could probably use $195 to $200 million using average contract values for the new players. Remember that the Giants have committed at least $150 million between contracts in place and likely money for arbitration players. (I have already anticipated they won't re-sign Yusmeiro Petit.)

So tell us which players you would target and how high you would be willing to go. Let's say that if they get the right players, the Giants would spend up to $45 million in average yearly contract value and that they will likely spend at least close to $40 million.

What would YOU do? And how high would you be willing to go for each player in your plan? What would your backup plan(s) be?

Remember, if we can't do this now, we really have little room to criticize later. We need to define what doing well is before criticizing the Giants for not doing it.

[sfgdood]

the question is irrelevant because we don't know what the market is...my point is you have to get at least one of them...whatever it takes to get the job done

[Rog]

the question is irrelevant because we don't know what the market is..


Rog -- That's the whole point, isn't it? When putting together a team's plan, one has to estimate what the market will be. It has to determine how high it will go for a player. It doesn't have to go that high, if it can get the player for less, but if it doesn't have a limit, it can be very easy to overspend.

Overall, free agent signings don't work out all that well. Free agents tend to be late in their primes or beyond them, meaning if we extrapolate their performance, we are setting ourselves up for disappointment.

You say we don't know that the Giants could have made the playoffs if they were healthy -- but we can be pretty sure they would have been at least close. You say we don't know if they are stronger now than they were a year ago, but player by player it certainly looks that way.

But let's suppose that you're right and that having healthy players wouldn't have made that much difference. And let's suppose the Giants don't in fact have more weapons than they had a year ago. The cost of a win is estimated at $7 million. At that price, if would take the Giants $56 million per season to make up the eight games they were behind the Dodgers.

Do we suppose that the deep pockets Dodgers will spend more money this off-season to improve their team? Let's suppose they pick up another two wins with their acquisitions. No the Giants would have to make up 10 wins. That normally runs around $70 million.

So we'd better HOPE that much of the difference between the Giants and Dodgers was health (although the Dodgers had some damaging injuries too) and that the Giants ARE better now than they were a year ago. If not, it could be very, very hard to catch the Dodgers.

And somehow the Pirates and Cubs don't seem headed downhill.

If all the things that you question are indeed untrue, the Giants' 2016 season is pretty much doomed.



Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3072/2016#ixzz3o2M4ugOH

[sfgdood]

Rog -- That's the whole point, isn't it? When putting together a team's plan, one has to estimate what the market will be. It has to determine how high it will go for a player. It doesn't have to go that high, if it can get the player for less, but if it doesn't have a limit, it can be very easy to overspend.

Dood - you misunderstand. The reason we don't have any real idea of what the market is because we don't have the contacts that a ML front office would. If I had their information, I could give you a better guess. But it is CRYSTAL clear that whatever the market, the Giants must be committed to pay what it takes to land one of the top dogs...if not more than one.




You say we don't know that the Giants could have made the playoffs if they were healthy

Dood - that's not what I said. I said you don't know that we WOULD have made the playoffs if healthy.




So we'd better HOPE that much of the difference between the Giants and Dodgers was health (although the Dodgers had some damaging injuries too) and that the Giants ARE better now than they were a year ago. If not, it could be very, very hard to catch the Dodgers.

And somehow the Pirates and Cubs don't seem headed downhill.

If all the things that you question are indeed untrue, the Giants' 2016 season is pretty much doomed.

Dood - which is why we NEED at least one of the top FA pitchers...and it would help if bonehead Belt would come close to fulfilling his potential

[Rog]

If all the things that you question are indeed untrue, the Giants' 2016 season is pretty much doomed.

Dood - which is why we NEED at least one of the top FA pitchers..


Rog -- Sorry, if it's doomed, that won't do it. If it could, the season wouldn't be doomed.

By the way, none of the rest of us here think what you said or implied is true, but if it is, David Price is unlikely to solve the problem.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3072/2016#ixzz3o2qGQWeH

[sfgdood]

there you go predicting the future again...what happened to prudence? Did you stash her away in the freezer with your dead animal collection?

[Rog]

Doomed -- likely to have an unfortunate and INESCAPABLE outcome; ILL-FATED


Inferred, but not implied. It is usually better to read than to assume.