sfgdood
Long time member 
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Sept 28, 2015 13:20:03 GMT -5
I wish we'd been swept by the A's...because now we're going to have to endure the blue boys dancing and celebrating on OUR field and pouring champagne in OUR visitors clubhouse. Not to mention they might pull another classless stunt like they did with the pool in Arizona.
I'm not looking forward to this one bit.
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 28, 2015 20:45:13 GMT -5
Maybe, Randy... maybe.
Okay, Likely.
but... but... wouldn't it be AWESOME to AT LEAST take it to the 4th game of the series and watch them sweat?
With the line up we're throwing out there, we really don't have much of a chance. We frittered that chance away in San Diego.
By the way, way to run the bullpen into the ground, Bochy. I won't ever forget that.
But to watch them sweat bullets, knowing we aren't likely to win anyway, would almost be worth it.
Almost.
It's all I've got left; to hear talk radio down here in PANIC mode! that would be fun!
Not that I'm going to get to see the game anyway.
Thanks, Tiime Warner for the enema you're giving all Giant and Dodger fans.
I hope you all rot in hell.
boly
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Post by rxmeister on Sept 29, 2015 8:57:15 GMT -5
Peavy vs. Greinke, yet we win and stave off elimination. Get past Kershaw tonight and there's a chance they celebrate elsewhere, but they'll certainly be hearing footsteps. Nice win last night and even with all the injuries, our lineup isn't half bad. As always it comes down to our starting pitching.
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 29, 2015 9:04:55 GMT -5
I only got to see highlights, Mark, but from what I saw... it was.
My biggest concern with our line up, at least last night, seem to have been unfounded.
I worried about Greinke vs:
Brown
Tomlinson
Parker
And it turned out okay.
You're right, get by Kershaw...not easy. But with Madison at least we have a chance.
I know it's too early to... but I keep thinking about those 1964 Phils. 7 to play and only had to win 1.... didn't win any.
Not likely, but what the heck.
boly
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Post by rxmeister on Sept 29, 2015 9:16:16 GMT -5
Problem is that even if the Giants sweep, they go home to face the Padres and will pitch both Greinke and Kershaw, needing just one win. At the very least it might screw up their rotation for the playoffs which would be a minor victory!
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 29, 2015 10:27:21 GMT -5
I agree, Mark; problems off the wall and then some!
We have about the same hope and Harry had in Dumb and Dumber when the chick wouldn't date him if he was the last man on the planet.
"So there's still a chance..."
boly
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Sept 29, 2015 11:11:24 GMT -5
Even bigger concern for me is the bullpen...they're on fumes. The Dodgers had runners on every inning the bullpen was in. Casilla gave it up again. If Bum goes the distance tonight, we MIGHT be able to get through the night but I haven't much faith in the bullpen saving our asses in any game the rest of the way.
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Post by donk33 on Sept 29, 2015 13:41:03 GMT -5
Problem is that even if the Giants sweep, they go home to face the Padres and will pitch both Greinke and Kershaw, needing just one win. At the very least it might screw up their rotation for the playoffs which would be a minor victory! dk...If the Giants win all the remaining games, the Dodgers will have to win two to clinch...one to tie.... |
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Post by donk33 on Sept 29, 2015 13:43:55 GMT -5
Even bigger concern for me is the bullpen...they're on fumes. The Dodgers had runners on every inning the bullpen was in. Casilla gave it up again. If Bum goes the distance tonight, we MIGHT be able to get through the night but I haven't much faith in the bullpen saving our asses in any game the rest of the way. dk...Casilla mwas in his 4th straight game...never too productive for him......I don't know who will be in the pen, tonight...probably Petit, Cain and Vogey.... |
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 29, 2015 21:41:37 GMT -5
Who's ever in the bullpen, Don... it won't be pretty.
Bochy has run them into the ground... again.
What did I say BEFORE the season began about September and the state of the pen?
In case anyone has forgotten, this is the EXACT scenario I talked about.
A pitching staff full of guys who can't go 7 over taxing the bullpen.
Well, here we are.
I'm tired of beating this horse. We SHOULDN'T be in this position.
This off season management BETTER address the problem, and STOP thinking/worrying/contemplating guys like Byrd in the outfield and the outrageous dollars he'll want.
The money NEEDS to go to pitching, so either they take the strings off the purse, or we'll be singing the same sad song this time next year.
What? Me worry?
Damn skippy I'm worried!
boly
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Post by rxmeister on Sept 30, 2015 7:06:55 GMT -5
I found a solution to the Dodgers celebrating on our field. Turn the game off early! And you know what? I'm glad they clinched in SF! Celebrate your asses off in front of Larry Baer and the other zillionaire owners. Maybe it will inspire them to make sure it doesn't happen again. I hope they pee all over the Giants garden!
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 30, 2015 9:23:49 GMT -5
Actually a good point, Mark.
If the owners don't like... damn it! Do something about it so it doesn't happen again next year!
boly
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Post by Rog on Sept 30, 2015 10:09:35 GMT -5
dk...Casilla mwas in his 4th straight game...never too productive for him. Rog -- Actually, it was "just" his third straight game, but if we look at relievers' stats on that third night, we will almost certainly see that they aren't good. In fact, three times this season Santiago has pitched in a third straight game, and the results have been spotty at best. The first time, he didn't allow a run, but gave up both a hit and a walk in one inning. The next time he gave up two hits in a third of an inning. And on Tuesday, he blew his 6th save. I don't understand why managers don't try to avoid using a guy three straight days. It's that kind of thinking that ended Robb Nen's career prematurely. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3060/suck#ixzz3nEbK4Syi |
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Post by Rog on Sept 30, 2015 10:25:41 GMT -5
The money NEEDS to go to pitching, so either they take the strings off the purse, or we'll be singing the same sad song this time next year. What? Me worry? Damn skippy I'm worried! Rog -- You don't think the Giants realize this just as much as we do? Why not keep the cup half full until it becomes half emptied? As for the bullpen, it's had a very tough close here, but September has been something of a dichotomy. Their 3.92 ERA in September is a bit worse than their 3.80 in May, but their 1.27 WHIP has been slightly better than their 1.28 in April -- when they posted a 3.04 ERA. A lot of the September ERA problem goes to the September call-ups: Broadway 5.63. Hall 4.26. Gearrin 5.40. Take away those guys, and the bullpen's September ERA has been 3.32. Their ERA for the full season has been ..... 3.30. In other words, take out those three youngsters, and the bullpen has performed this month about the same as for the season overall. Perhaps this has been a case of Bruce's over-managing as much or more than a failure of the base bullpen. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3060/suck?page=1#ixzz3nEdCP5As |
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Post by Rog on Sept 30, 2015 10:27:21 GMT -5
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Sept 30, 2015 13:13:08 GMT -5
If Bum goes the distance tonight, we MIGHT be able to get through the night
Rog -- My sense is that if Madison had pitched a complete game last night, the bullpen wouldn't have lost it.
Dood - true but we'd have lost anyway...Kershaw owned us
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Post by Rog on Sept 30, 2015 15:45:28 GMT -5
We could build a good argument that Clayton has been as good as Sandy Koufax -- or perhaps even better. No question Sandy was dynamite from 1962 through 1966, but would it surprise us that over the past five seasons, Clayton's road ERA has been two ticks lower than Sandy's over Sandy's five great seasons? And that was even though the run-scoring environment in Clayton's five seasons was a fifth of a run better than during Sandy's five years.
In other words, Clayton has been better on the road than Sandy was. And while Sandy's ERA at home was clearly lower than Clayton's, when we take the run-scoring environment and Dodger Stadium advantage into consideration, Clayton has been pretty much right there with Sandy, too. Clayton enjoys a big Dodger Stadium advantage too, but the fences were 10 feet deeper during Sandy's run.
One could make a strong argument that no pitcher has ever accomplished more by the age of 27 than Kershaw has. He has a 2.44 career ERA at the same age as Sandy was when Sandy had just completed his 1963 season. Sandy's best was yet to come. Unlike Sandy, who had six of them of them, Clayton has never had a full season with an ERA above three.
Sandy was great for five seasons. Kershaw has already been great for seven -- and at age 27, he's still in the beginning stages of his prime. At age 26, Sandy began his great run with an ERA of 2.54. By his age 26 season, Clayton already had ERA's of 2.79, 2.91, 2.28, 2.53, 1.83 and 1.77. This year Kershaw got off to a very slow start, resulting in a "down" year in which his ERA is 2.16.
We've seen what can happen to great pitchers. We have a horrible example right here at hand in Tim Lincecum. But we might be witnessing the greatest pitcher ever. He's got a LONG way to go, but he may be off to the best extended beginning of any pitcher. He's been even better than Babe Ruth! Ruth probably would have been a Hall of Fame pitcher if he hadn't switched positions.
My point is that we very likely watched a match up last night of two future Hall of Famers. They are almost certainly the two most highly regarded southpaws in the game. And as much as we should appreciate Bumgarner (who has by FAR the better post season resume), we should look at Kershaw and wonder how long he will continue his present level of pitching. If he does so for several more years, we may indeed be watching the best pitcher of all time.
How likely is it that that is the case? Well, the odds probably don't favor it. Pitchers' arms are far too fragile for the odds to be in Kershaw's favor. But it he does accomplish it, let's not have to admit that it took us by surprise.
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 30, 2015 16:26:30 GMT -5
Rog, we've had this discussion before.
Here's the difference. In the big games, Koufax came up big.
How many years did Kershaw NOT come up big against St. Louis in the post season?
I saw them both a LOT.
Both were great, but given the choice, give me Sandy, and it ain't even close.
boly
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Post by Rog on Sept 30, 2015 18:40:29 GMT -5
Rog, we've had this discussion before. Here's the difference. In the big games, Koufax came up big. How many years did Kershaw NOT come up big against St. Louis in the post season? I saw them both a LOT. Both were great, but given the choice, give me Sandy, and it ain't even close. Rog -- Your point about not pitching well is a good one (although I'm pretty sure he pitched quite well in some and that Sandy didn't pitch well in others). In fact, I alluded to it. If I performed more research, I might think it was a bigger item than I presently do. Maybe some day. I think it depends on how Kershaw performs from here -- including, obviously, the postseason. Regarding the postseason, it may be that as you alluded to with Bumgarner this season (although I disagree somewhat), Clayton suffers from a tired arm. IIRC his pattern in the poor starts has been to pitch very well -- and then suddenly lose it. Regarding pitching well in big games, one game I remember where Sandy DIDN'T fare well was the opening game of the 1962 playoff against the Giants. He was badly out-pitched by Billy Pierce, and the Giants won 8-0. Sandy didn't record a single out in the second inning before being replaced after facing the first two batters in the frame. Sandy had also been knocked out after just two-thirds of an inning two starts before. That was the Dodgers' second loss in what turned out to be 12 losses in 16 games, opening the gates for the Giants' improbably pennant. In his defense, he had just returned from an arm injury that kept him out for nearly two months. But more than anything else, I think this shows how deceiving a small sample can be if overly used. It was none other than Scott Boras who pointed out that Mr. October hismelf, Reggie Jackson, had four poor postseasons. So I didn't research Sandy's not coming up big at important times. I simply remembered that first game of the 1962 playoffs. Sandy had every excuse, so I'm certainly not going to knock him for those two games. But it does demonstrate how deceiving small samples can indeed be. My point was that Kershaw's last five (and I'll limit this to REGULAR) seasons have been far more similar to Sandy's five great seasons than we would expect. And that Clayton's five seasons came before and when he was entering his prime years, while Sandy's came right on time for his prime. (Not that that would -- never mind.) Kershaw has yet to post an ERA above three in any of his seven seasons. Sandy certainly didn't have that CONSISTENCY (or persistence, if you prefer). It was just one game, and remember the problem with small samples, but last night showed how much better Clayton Kershaw could be than another (potential) Hall of Famer. I'm sure Sandy outpitched Juan Marichal and Bob Gibson on occasion too, and Madison certainly isn't that their levels yet. Would we have been surprised if the tables were turned for last night's game? I wouldn't have been shocked, but I would indeed have been surprised. I would have been less surprised if BOTH pitchers had pitched extremely dominantly. One point that I think is very important to remember here. Just as Juan Marichal's road ERA was nearly as good as Sandy's during Sandy's great five seasons, Kershaw's has been even LOWER than Sandy's. And that is in an environment of higher scoring than Sandy faced. As great as Sandy was, that's pretty darn impressive on Kershaw's part. Which pitchers do we know that have been better than Kershaw though age 27? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3060/suck#ixzz3nGa8K8Jl |
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 30, 2015 21:43:13 GMT -5
Rog--Regarding pitching well in big games, one game I remember where Sandy DIDN'T fare well was the opening game of the 1962 playoff against the Giants. He was badly out-pitched by Billy Pierce, and the Giants won 8-0. Sandy didn't record a single out in the second inning before being replaced after facing the first two batters in the frame
***boly says***
And you're omitting one HUGE fact! Sandy had recently come back from arm ailments that landed him on the DL. Not many of his last 3 starts were equal to what he did prior to going on the DL
THAT injury changes everything, and that year DID change everything for LA
boly
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Post by Rog on Oct 3, 2015 11:02:34 GMT -5
What Boly posted is true. I was aware of it and probably should have referenced it. But my point wasn't so much to do with Sandy himself as with making too much of small samples.
If we look at the early postseasons of Mr. October himself, Reggie Jackson, we see why he's called Mr. October. If we look at his later postseasons, we see why he might also be called Mr. Mediocrity. If we look at his performance in early October, we see why he should more accurately be called Mr. Late October or Mr. World Series.
Not that those would be poor nicknames at ALL. But they would be more indicative of his true overall postseason performance, not just what he's remembered for.
Think of how aside from his historic catch, Willie Mays wasn't a good postseason performer. I don't think he should be judged much on that though, do you? Think of how Barry Bonds looked like a postseason choker -- until in 2002 he had one of the best postseasons ever.
Sandy did make a heroic effort in 1962, returning -- as Boly mentioned -- from significant injury. Perhaps though he would have been better served to put machismo aside and think more reasonably. I'm sure he didn't want to let his teammates down. Probably most of us would have done the same thing as he.
But ultimately he wound up hurting his team, no matter what the cause. He did what he thought -- or at least hoped -- would most benefit his team. But despite his best efforts, he didn't do so.
One would probably also have to question Walter Alston for continuing to use Sandy, even starting him in the critical first game of the playoffs. But like Koufax himself, he likely felt Sandy could overcome.
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Post by Rog on Oct 3, 2015 11:05:40 GMT -5
A question here: Why would we wish the A's had swept the Giants, when doing so would have ended the Giants' season. Didn't it make sense to be happy the Giants were still alive, if only slightly. Wasn't that wishing the A's had swept their series with the Giants more hating the Dodgers than loving the Giants?
Personally, I don't hate the Dodgers. So I never have to get my hatred for them mixed up with my love of the Giants. Not that I'm any better than anyone else, but in that one regard, I am better than some -- probably most -- of the Giants fans.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Oct 3, 2015 11:33:18 GMT -5
just another way you stats geeks don't get it. You only get geeked up over numbers so rivalry and passion don't mean a thing to you.
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Post by Rog on Oct 5, 2015 20:41:00 GMT -5
just another way you stats geeks don't get it. You only get geeked up over numbers so rivalry and passion don't mean a thing to you. Rog -- I appreciate the response. Another way for you to have handled it would have been to answer the question. You still could. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3060/suck#ixzz3nkQDGTBi |
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Oct 5, 2015 21:13:08 GMT -5
I answered the question with the original post...but as I say, stats geeks just don't get it
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Post by Rog on Oct 6, 2015 9:54:42 GMT -5
I answered the question with the original post...but as I say, stats geeks just don't get it Rog -- Instead of answering the question, you instead decided to use your vitriol on stats geeks. Regarding those who use metrics (which is including major league teams to a greater and greater extent), I can see why you would have disdain for them. What you don't realize though is that many of them are passing you -- and me too, for that matter -- by. You know how they say ignorance is bliss? I realize I am ignorant and still need to keep learning. I don't think you realize that. (And, yes, I know that you realize I'M ignorant and need to keep learning.) Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3060/suck#ixzz3nndTwrrB |
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Post by Islandboagie on Oct 6, 2015 10:00:37 GMT -5
Rog- A question here: Why would we wish the A's had swept the Giants, when doing so would have ended the Giants' season. Didn't it make sense to be happy the Giants were still alive, if only slightly. Wasn't that wishing the A's had swept their series with the Giants more hating the Dodgers than loving the Giants?
Boagie- I agree, even if it were a long shot, I hoped those four games meant something. I'm kind of surprised Randy has this opinion, them celebrating on our field magnifies the off season moves (or lack thereof) as a failure, and that work needs to be done. I didn't like seeing it, but it needed to be seen.
Rog- Personally, I don't hate the Dodgers. So I never have to get my hatred for them mixed up with my love of the Giants. Not that I'm any better than anyone else, but in that one regard, I am better than some -- probably most -- of the Giants fans.
Boagie- First of all, hate is a strong word. I don't believe Randy or any Giants fan literally hates everyone in a Dodgers jersey. It's a rivalry, it's meant for fun. The two teams want that rivalry. It's good for those two franchises and it's good for baseball.
You saying that you're somehow better for not wanting to be a part of that is absolutely 100% ignorant. If you honestly believe you're better, it only proves you don't understand it. And that's fine if you don't. Honestly, it doesn't surprise me that much, it's become clear you don't fully grasp the human element of anything. Perhaps that's why it's taken you "40 years of studying" chemistry to come back without an opinion.
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Post by klaiggeb on Oct 6, 2015 10:21:13 GMT -5
Hate might be a strong word, Boagie and Rog... but it's the closest word I CAN COME UP that conveys the way I feel about them.
They make me want to vomit.
boly
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Oct 6, 2015 12:06:14 GMT -5
I answered the question with the original post...but as I say, stats geeks just don't get it
Rog -- Instead of answering the question, you instead decided to use your vitriol on stats geeks.
Dood - reading comprehension, I now see, is not one of your strong suits. Your question was addressed in the very first post in this thread. That you did not read it, forgot it, or just plain ignored it kind of proves my point that you pick and choose facts to suit your arguments. The vitriol, in this case, was well-earned.
Regarding those who use metrics (which is including major league teams to a greater and greater extent), I can see why you would have disdain for them. What you don't realize though is that many of them are passing you -- and me too, for that matter -- by. You know how they say ignorance is bliss? I realize I am ignorant and still need to keep learning. I don't think you realize that.
Dood - here's the thing. You have this belief that knowing obscure stats somehow means you know more about the game. You don't. It just means you enjoy manipulating and over-interpreting numbers. The game hasn't changed much in 140 years. 60 feet 6 inches from the pitching rubber to the dish...90 feet between bases. 9 fielders. It's really quite simple. As the manager in Bull Durham said...you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball...you got it?
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Oct 6, 2015 12:31:46 GMT -5
Boagie- I agree, even if it were a long shot, I hoped those four games meant something. I'm kind of surprised Randy has this opinion, them celebrating on our field magnifies the off season moves (or lack thereof) as a failure, and that work needs to be done. I didn't like seeing it, but it needed to be seen.
Dood - I deal in reality. Realistically, the Giants were NOT going to finish the season on a 9 game winning streak. And Greinke and Kershaw were not going to lose 4 games between them in their final 2 times through the rotation. The Dodgers clearly were going to be celebrating. I didn't want them to do it in our yard.
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