Mac And Jarred

[klaiggeb]

I gotta be honest, and to be fair, I'm NOT going to be blown off my feet with one game from Mac Williamson... but both were impressive last night.

Jarred has been pounding the ball for about 10 days now, and that 460 ft bomb he hit last night was flat out awe inspiring.

Then again, I remember all fo the hype about John Bowker when he first came up.

All those HRs... and then... fizzle, fizzle, fizzle.

I like Parker's swing, but to be honest, Bowker's swing was better for me; shorter, more compact.

I need to see a LOT of Parker over these last 10 games or so. And IF Bochy's smart, he SHOULD run him out there every day so HE can see, too.



Mac Williamson's bat speed was flat out incredible! Now I am NOT, repeat NOT comparing his ability to Giancarlo Stanton, but bat speed wise, they are close!

113 mph off the bat head?

THAT'S bat speed!

Problem is... no place to play either.

Then again, depending upon how they finish up this year... I MIGHT consider Parker as Pagan's replacement in CF.

That's a HUGE might.

I've long been saying I am NOT Pagan fan, but I am NOT ready, either, to commit to Parker in CF.

Like I said; depending upon how they finish the season.



And I really hope Bochy plays a lot of BOTH of them the rest of the way out just to see what they can do.

boly

[sfgdood]

I'm not gonna wet my shorts over these guys either but it's good to know there's some punch that we can go to if something were to happen.

[klaiggeb]

And Jarred went the other way, and with thump, again today.

That he can, or at least appears he can, it lefties, says something.

At the very least, he deserves to play a lot more this season.

boly

[rxmeister]

He should play every day the rest of the season, that's for sure. And let's see what happens in spring training next year. He also stole 20 bases this year in the minors, so he's both speed and power. Those 170 K's in the minors scare me though. How many would that be in the majors? 225? 250?

[klaiggeb]

170 K's? In one season, Mark, or over a career?

He wouldn't be the first player with so-so minor league numbers to come up and surprise everyone.

Just off the top of my head; Panik and Duffy.

Nothing they showed in the minors could have led anyone to believe they would/could do what they've done.

boly

[donk33]

Sept 27, 2015 15:25:51 GMT -5 klaiggeb said:

170 K's? In one season, Mark, or over a career?

He wouldn't be the first player with so-so minor league numbers to come up and surprise everyone.

Just off the top of my head; Panik and Duffy.

Nothing they showed in the minors could have led anyone to believe they would/could do what they've done.

boly

dk   Parker's last 5 years he K'ed 144,175,161,126,and 164...and I'm sure Rog has some other stats to show he is hitting well over his head.....like his BA was between .275-.283 during his last 3 years. All Duffy did in the minors was lead the Eastern League in hitting   when he was called up to the Giants. Panik, a #1 draft pick, had solid numbers in the minors before he hit SF....321 in AAA...Don't use your age as an excuse to me, I have over 20 years on you...

[klaiggeb]

You have more than 20 years on ME, Don? that would make you 85.

I remember Duffy lead the Eastern league, but, and I haven't looked up the numbers, I don't recall him being a "big" prospect.

Same with Panik.

High draft choice, but from all that I've read and heard, no one expected him to be this good.

boly

[donk33]

Sept 27, 2015 20:13:03 GMT -5 klaiggeb said:

You have more than 20 years on ME, Don? that would make you 85.

I remember Duffy lead the Eastern league, but, and I haven't looked up the numbers, I don't recall him being a "big" prospect.

Same with Panik.

High draft choice, but from all that I've read and heard, no one expected him to be this good.

boly

dk...I'm only 89...although I can't pitch after 5 innings, but my memory is still fair when it comes to the Giants....I could still tell you who played on the '36 Giants but I can't tell you too much about the 2014 players other than the Giants...too many teams, too many players. I have always been against teams expanding their rosters before the season ends....teams pull players out of their farm teams even if they are still open for the playoffs....the contending Major League teams have to play a different game when they are playing against a 40 man active roster....some of the teams are promoting speed and fielding specialists to pinch run and use their glove guys in the late innings...these guys will be let go when the season ends...

[rxmeister]

Panik and Duffy were different though, Boly. First of all, Panik was a number one draft pick. Secondly they both hit for high averages, and you could tell that they were smart hitters destined for the bigs because of their K-BB ratios. Parker and Williamson are more along the lines of Pedro Feliz, Todd Linden and Adam Duvall. Big power numbers in the minors that might not succeed at the major league level. On the other hand, they certainly deserve the chance to prove they're more than that. They're better athletes than the others I just mentioned, and the Giants have always been high on Williamson.

[klaiggeb]

And I don't disagree, Mark

But not one of the experts expected Duffy nor Panik to hit for ANY power, and that includes gap power.

Rog, who researches all this stuff, didn't think Panik had any ability to drive the ball. And the same was true of Duffy.

But both have FAR exceeded expectations.

Heck, Duffy was projected as a utility player.

I'd like to think Parker will be better than either Linden or Duvall, neither of whom showed any ability to hit at the major league level.

Parker at least has shown some.

I was never enamored with Feliz, and I'm hoping both Jarret and Mac prove to be more steady.

We'll see.

boly

[sfgdood]

I was a fan of Pete Happy. He wasn't great but he gave you solid defense and power. I'd take that from Parker.

[Rog]

170 K's? In one season, Mark, or over a career?


If Parker had only 170 K's in his minor league career, he would have been up much sooner and perhaps won the Rookie of the Year -- LAST SEASON!

Mark put Parker in perspective when he mentioned Jarrett's 164 strikeouts, but what does that mean? Well, Parker his .283 in a hitters' league. And because of all the strikeouts, he had to post a Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) of over .400.

The average BABIP in the majors is just below .300. If Jarrett's BABIP had been at the major league average, his batting average would have been .224. In other words, we're looking at a destitute man's Adam Dunn (although Jarrett is FAR better in the field than Adam was).

Jarrett couldn't have played much better than he has thus far. That should certainly give us hope. But looking at the bigger picture, we should keep our hope very tempered. Jarrett's BABIP will likely be above league average, but he still projects to be a .240-.250 hitter with decent power. He hit only .261 in the minors.

That sounds a lot like a 5th outfielder. Jarrett is more likely to approach Juan Perez than he is to approach Hunter Pence.




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[Rog]

He wouldn't be the first player with so-so minor league numbers to come up and surprise everyone.

Just off the top of my head; Panik and Duffy.

Nothing they showed in the minors could have led anyone to believe they would/could do what they've done.


Rog -- Actually it could. Let's put in perspective.

Joe was hitting .321 when he was called up. Remember the importance of walks to strikeouts (adjusted somewhat by power)? Joe had walked 27 times while striking out on just 33 occasions. His career minor league ratio was 171/180. He didn't project to his .309 career average to date, but he looked like a solid .290 hitter.

How about Duffy?

Matt also had a nice K/BB ratio going. His career mark was 120/145. He was also hitting .332 at Richmond, where Panik had hit just .257 the previous season.

So now, how about Parker? Jarrett was hitting .283 with a career minor league average of .261. He had hit for nice power, but his 84 minor league home runs in 2215 at bats wasn't anything special. So far though, not too bad. Kind of like Juan Perez with more power and less defense.

But let's not forget the importance of K/BB ratio. Jarrett's was 62/164 at Fresno and 320/770 over his minor league career. We laughed at Adam Dunn for striking out more than once every three at bats -- in the majors. Jarett did the same thing -- IN THE MINORS!

It should be noted that even though Dunn played in the minors from age 18 through age 21, he struck out "only" about once every four and a half at bats. Parker has played in the minors between ages 22 and 26. Dunn was in the major leagues at the age when Parker began in the minors.

Dunn went on to hit 37 homers per 162 games and become a two-time All-Star (10 years apart). Parker likely has already completed his major league stardom.

Panik and Duffy have outperformed expectations, but their minor league K/BB ratios show we should have been somewhat prepared for it. Parker's K/BB ratio indicates he is likely to be another Justin Maxwell. And as far as we know, Jarrett doesn't have a silver hammer.



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[Rog]

I was a fan of Pete Happy. He wasn't great but he gave you solid defense and power. I'd take that from Parker.


Rog -- Absolutely!




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[Rog]

Rog, who researches all this stuff, didn't think Panik had any ability to drive the ball. And the same was true of Duffy.


Rog -- Not as much as they have shown, particularly in the case of Duffy, who didn't hit a single home run in college.

Joe actually hasn't hit for much more power than I expected. He's hit for just 1.36 bases per hit. That's exactly what he did in the minors. What I didn't expect was for him to exceed my expectations by 20 points in batting average. A .290 hitter is a very good hitter. A .309 hitter is a star.

Joe has also done a great job of getting on base (.378 this season). His K/BB ratio this year was 42/38. (I believe I earlier had the K/BB ratio of players inverted.)

Duffy hit for 1.40 bases per hit in the minors and has reached 1.42 in the majors. His K/BB ratio -- 93/29 this season -- hasn't held up nearly as well as Joe's, and I don't expect his average to hold up as well, either. Matt's BABIP this year has been .341. That will be tough to continue.

Joe now looks to me to be a career .295 hitter. Maybe even closer to .300. I see Matt more like .270-275. Look for Matt's K/BB ratio to improve next season, or for his batting average to decline.

Incidentally, Joe didn't take the small step back I was expecting this season. He was even better (and improved his K/BB ratio from 33/16 to 38/42). Matt's K/BB ratio should improve this upcoming season as well. How much it improves will have a lot to do with how well he can keep up his batting average.

I don't really know the original scouting report on Duffy, but I do know that with Joe it was that his floor was high (which one can see from his efficient stroke) but his ceiling wasn't high. I think Joe has pushed through that ceiling. No doubt Matt too.

But looking at their minor league records, one could project that Joe and Matt would be solid hitters. With Jarrett Parker, that isn't the case.




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[Rog]

Heck, Duffy was projected as a utility player.

Joe too, early in his minor league career and after a disappointing 2013 season at Richmond. Here is the thing about Joe at Richmond though. His average was disappointing at .257, but his K/BB ratio was still a strong 68/58.

Joe was always projected to be a solid player. Clearly he has become more than that. And he's just such a fun player to watch.

One thing the scouting report seems to have gotten right. It was felt he would be only an adequate shortstop but could become an above-average defender at second base. I think his fielding may have been more of a surprise than his hitting.




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[donk33]

Sept 30, 2015 9:30:00 GMT -5 Rog said:

Heck, Duffy was projected as a utility player.

Joe too, early in his minor league career and after a disappointing 2013 season at Richmond. Here is the thing about Joe at Richmond though. His average was disappointing at .257, but his K/BB ratio was still a strong 68/58.

Joe was always projected to be a solid player. Clearly he has become more than that. And he's just such a fun player to watch.

One thing the scouting report seems to have gotten right. It was felt he would be only an adequate shortstop but could become an above-average defender at second base. I think his fielding may have been more of a surprise than his hitting.dk...old Rog never gives up in trying to dig up stats that predict failure for young minor leaguers....now it is comparing K's to BB....for Crawford it was BABIP and others...you can't really forecast when looking at stats of young ball players...especially ones like Crawford, Panik, Duffy and the others who came up this year....this batch of young players are in different stages of physical development and it is still too early to predict what their peak will be....the part that they have little control over is    what worries me the most...just when will Bochy learn that all rookies are different...some need some time off to recharge their motors....they treat Posey like he is bone china and will crack under extreme pressure...Crawford puts a lot of effort into his game and gets better results when he gets an occasional day off...he is forced to play when injured as well as just plain tired.....it's funny...Crawford made a lot of errors early on and most on this board wanted him replaced...now he is  getting nothing but raves around the league....and as Rog said he has stats that show he will never be a hitter...well, he has run into injuries this year (as in previous years) just when he was getting his average up towards the magic .300...but look who suddenly is hitting 4th and 5th and is leading the team in home runs...and is close to the lead in RBI's despite hitting 7th and 8th  thru a good part of the season....



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[Rog]

old Rog never gives up in trying to dig up stats that predict failure for young minor leaguers....now it is comparing K's to BB....for Crawford it was BABIP and others...you can't really forecast when looking at stats of young ball players.


Rog -- I'll need to refresh your memory here, Don. I have long used K/BB (as modified by power and league/age). I don't believe I mentioned BABIP regarding Crawford, although clearly if one strikes out too much, unless he has power, his BABIP (at bats less strikeouts less home runs, divided into hits less home runs) will have to be very high for the player to hit for average. And if he doesn't walk, he likely will make too many outs.

One thing I will say. Unlike probably anyone else here (Maybe Randy is an exception.), I had seen him play. Although to be honest, the Giants had so many good prospects in San Jose then that I wasn't really in a great position to judge based on what I had seen.

In Crawford's case, he has indeed hit better than I expected. He's made adjustments more players don't make. We should also remember that his career batting average is just .246 -- although that has been weighted down by his being brought up prematurely in 2011.

Players CAN be judged by their stats, just as they can be judged by scouting. Neither is perfect, and the best way to judge a player is using the two in combination.

I thought recently of a player Boly and I talked about a few years back. I compared Brandon Belt with Jesus Montero, a catcher who was ranked #3 among all prospects at the time. I told Boly I thought Brandon would be better.

Well, Brandon hasn't been as good as I thought he would be, perhaps in part because he was brought up prematurely and later due to injury. But he's been better than many realize. As for Montero, he's accumulated only 804 at bats in five seasons, with a career OPS of .695, well under 100 points lower than Belt's.

I had seen Belt take five at bats on TV. I had never seen Montero, although the reports about him were glowing. I could have been wrong -- especially since Montero was by far the higher-rated prospect. But this time -- as has been the case a majority of times, although certainly not all -- I was right on the money. Was that because I was brilliant? No, it was because that was what the numbers predicted.

I guess my suggestion would be to ignore metrics at your own peril. Learn how to use them, and at least use them to back up your own opinions.

Remember how I said that Justin Maxwell wouldn't hit because he struck out so much? When my son -- who coincidentally just called me as I typed "Justin Maxwell" -- told me how good he thought Maxwell was with his early homers and good batting average, I told him the same thing I had posted here.

Again, these things aren't always right, just as the scouts aren't always right, either. But the best way to judge is to combine both. Step up your game in the metrics department, combine them with what your own experienced eyes tell you, and we'll probably be right a little more often than by using either one (metrics or scouting) exclusively.

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[klaiggeb]

Though I'll never be a 'stats' guy to the extent that Rog is, over the years the K/BB stuff he's shown and sent me really have made him fairly accurate, much more so than I, of having a good 'feel' for who was likely to make it, and who wouldn't.

So if he has something to say about a minor leaguer... I do listen. He's been right, or close to right, too often not to.

boly

[Rog]

Though I'll never be a 'stats' guy to the extent that Rog is, over the years the K/BB stuff he's shown and sent me really have made him fairly accurate, much more so than I, of having a good 'feel' for who was likely to make it, and who wouldn't.

So if he has something to say about a minor leaguer... I do listen. He's been right, or close to right, too often not to.


Rog -- Please pass this on to Barbara!




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