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Post by Rog on Sept 24, 2015 16:30:36 GMT -5
Around the Foghorn has come up with several intriguing off-season possibilities for the Giants. The one they decided on as the most likely is:
Pitchers Scott Kazmir and Mike Leake at about $35-$40 million.
Outfielders Marlon Byrd and Nori Aoki at $13.5 million.
Let's call the total $50 million.
I doubt very much that Kazmir will be a popular choice here, but Around the Foghorn chose him over Jordan Zimmermann because they felt he was about as good but being older wouldn't require as long a contract (less risk). I myself would think Zimmermann, but I'd have to research the situation to be sure.
ATF also discussed the Bromance of David Price for Madison Bumgarner, but felt that at somewhere in the $180-$200 million total contract range, he would be too expensive for the Giants. He might actually be the Giants' first choice, but it could indeed come down to affordability and willingness to sign early (so that the Giants don't get left holding the bag).
I realize ATF's choices aren't sexy, but if Kazmir is truly a top-tier starter, a rotation of Bumgarner, Kazmir, Leake, Peavy and Heston, with Cain in reserve, might not be the end of the world. Not sure exactly how much that six-some would cost, but it would likely be in the range of $80 million per season. That's a fair chunk to put into a rotation. This season it was somewhere around $70 million, which is pretty high in itself.
ATF felt an outfield of Pence, Pagan, Byrd, Aoki and Blanco would be OK, but also hoped that Pagan's September surge would entice another team to pick him up at full salary or close to it (unlikely IMO). Although they didn't figure into ATF's final choices, they considered both Jayson Heyward and Justin Upton as potential outfield free agents.
The other thing I wanted to mention is that Bleacher Report has rated Joe Panik as the #6 2nd baseman in the majors. They liked his contact and all-around play, while wishing he showed more power. His power has been decent though, and he has a career average of over .300.
Both Brandon Belt and Panik have now been rated as #6 at their respective positions.
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sfgdood
Long time member 
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Sept 24, 2015 18:19:46 GMT -5
Again with the going cheap mode...what the Fargin Icehole good is it to be one of the top revenue teams when you don't want to take FULL advantage of it? It's crap like this that makes me want to PUKE!
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 24, 2015 23:42:57 GMT -5
Why in the world would we spend ANY money on an outfielder?
That makes NO sense at all.
Aoki hits LHP well. No need to platoon him with Bryd. None at all!
What money we have should go for pitching!
Period!
Mark's idea for Zimmerman is outstanding.
Kazmir's okay. I could live with that.
Hopefully, we re sign Leake
What's left, if I'm running the circus goes for a closer.
I do NOT want to see another season of Casilla and his increasing inability to get LHB holding the job.
We simply do NOT need to spend the millions required to keep Bryd to have him as a part time player.
For ME, that's the same kind of stupid things we've been doing for years.
Enough already.
Get the starting ptiching set.
Get the bullpen set.
We WILL score runs. We did so this year and we'll do even more next year.
But IF we're going to sign an outfielder, for heaven's sake, MOVE Pagan and GET a CF who's younger, better on defense, and who is NOT so injury prone.
boly
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Sept 24, 2015 23:55:29 GMT -5
I would be PISSED OFF if we end up with Kazmir. What this season proved beyond ANY doubt is we NEED to go after TOP QUALITY pitching. I don't want middle of the road crap. We have the money...we need to use it.
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Post by rxmeister on Sept 25, 2015 7:38:20 GMT -5
It's funny to see everyone angry about the opinion of "Around The Foghorn." Unless that article was written by Bobby Evans, it's meaningless. I don't see the Giants signing Scott Kazmir because they're getting burned this year by older starters, so it makes no sense to go that route this winter. Giants looked at the top of the market this past off season after winning it all, so the idea that they will shoot lower after missing the playoffs is preposterous. It would take at least ten better starters turning them down before they looked at someone like Kazmir.,
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Post by Rog on Sept 25, 2015 9:04:25 GMT -5
Again with the going cheap mode...what the Fargin Icehole good is it to be one of the top revenue teams when you don't want to take FULL advantage of it? It's crap like this that makes me want to PUKE! Rog -- Around the Foghorn, which covers the Giants even more closely than we do, was simply offering their opinion of what the Giants should do. We may not like their choices (although they provided more alternatives than I've seen here), but they have the Giants spending $190 million or more, and we've been getting on the Giants for being cheap. Shouldn't we happy at least with the AMOUNT of their spending if it approaches $200 million? By the way, before we totally reject a guy like Kazmir, might it not be good to research him? Aren't we guilty of being long on opinions and short on study? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3053/foghorn-bleacher-report#ixzz3ml6m1KgB |
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Post by Rog on Sept 25, 2015 9:11:52 GMT -5
Just for starters on Kazmir, he has a 2.73 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this season. That compares favorably to Zimmermann's 3.49 and 1.19. Zimmermann has yielded more than a hit per inning this season, while Kazmir has given up only an impressive five hits per every six innings.
I'm not saying I like Kazmir better. I'm simply saying I don't know enough about the two pitchers to make an informed decision at this time, so I'll reserve judgment until I know as many facts as I can.
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Post by Rog on Sept 25, 2015 9:29:07 GMT -5
Why in the world would we spend ANY money on an outfielder? That makes NO sense at all. Aoki hits LHP well. No need to platoon him with Bryd. None at all! What money we have should go for pitching! Period! Rog -- The outfield question likely isn't whether to re-sign Byrd (whose option will almost certainly vest), but whether to re-sign Aoki, who seems like a bargain at $4.8 million net. It sounds as if the Giants have set aside a LOT of money for pitching. Even Kazmir and Leake will likely command at least $35 million per season. A guy like Price won't command that much all by himself, but he certainly could approach $30 million per season. Jon Lester is making $26 million per season. How much more would David Price be worth? Price's career ERA is half a run less, and he will be half a year younger than Lester was when Jon signed with the Cubs. Won-loss record certainly isn't the only or even most important indication of a pitcher's skill, but Price is 103-56. That's an impressive .648 winning percentage. Lester's is also a very good .618. Price is an elite starter. Lester is very good, but he isn't elite. Price isn't Clayton Kershaw, but he's likely right up there with his Bromance mate, Madison Bumgarner. Lester is more at the level Matt Cain was a few years back. In fact, Matt was probably better. Lester is probably closer to Kazmir than to Price, although money-wise, he'll likely be closer to Price than to Kazmir. Jon Lester isn't really a great value, is he? Kazmir has clearly been a better pitcher this season. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3053/foghorn-bleacher-report?page=1#ixzz3ml9xu95c |
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Post by Rog on Sept 25, 2015 9:39:32 GMT -5
It would take at least ten better starters turning them down before they looked at someone like Kazmir., Rog -- Who are the ten better starters than Kazmir on the free agent market? He's probably in the top five. Leake may be, as well. Here are some intriguing names who will likely be in the 2nd tier: Clay Buchholtz Marco Estrada Mark Buerhle Wei-Yin Chen Doug Fister R.A. Dickey Yovani Gallardo Jaime Garcia J.A. Happ Hisashi Iwakuma John Lackey Colby Lewis Jeff Samardzija Rick Porcello That's quite a bit of depth. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3053/foghorn-bleacher-report?page=1#ixzz3mlET2nSa |
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 25, 2015 9:57:17 GMT -5
Farging Icehole!
Outstanding, Randy!
I haven't thought of Johnny Dangerously in years!!!!!!!
Well done, and hilarious!!!
boly
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Sept 25, 2015 11:22:59 GMT -5
Zimmerman has two things over Kazmir, besides dominant stuff...youth and playoff experience. The thing that bothers me is ATF is already settling for less than the top. We proved this year that even a very flawed Dodger team beats us, and why? Because of Kershaw and Greinke. We need to pair Bumgarner with somebody just as formidable. Don't get me wrong...I like Kazmir and he had a good year...but we need someone to strike fear into batters and Scott just doesn't. Neither does Leake, btw...and I like Mike too. We need someone both feared and nasty...that's Zimmerman.
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 25, 2015 12:40:16 GMT -5
I want the Zim, too, Randy.
He's my top choice, NOT Cueto.
boly
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Post by rxmeister on Sept 26, 2015 7:27:49 GMT -5
Not a doubt in my mind that the Giants are looking for a top tier starter because of the Kershaw-Greinke thing, I agree, Randy. And Rog, I'm not saying ten FA pitchers had a better year than Kazmir, but they're far more desirable in terms of a long term deal because of their age. If you want to look at 2015 for a 34 year old pitcher and project he'll continue to pitch like that, I think you're making a big mistake. I think Price would be the target, with the Giants "settling" for Zimmerman. I was part of the sign Leake group because his record wasn't showing how well he was pitching, but his last few starts have indicated to me that they should be careful about overpaying him. I still want him, but move on if he doesn't offer a bit of a hometown discount. As for Byrd, Schulman indicated yesterday that the Giants want him back and don't care if the option vests.
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 26, 2015 12:16:48 GMT -5
Yeah... Leake has flat out stunk up the joint his last bunch of times out, Mark
And you're right; he can move on if he's looking for big bucks.
boly
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Post by Rog on Sept 27, 2015 11:54:10 GMT -5
Scott Kazmir is 31, not 34, if he was the 34-year-old pitcher being referred to.
I think most would see David Price as the prize of the free agent starter market. And he'll almost certainly be paid like it.
As Leake, the Giants are in perfect position to judge him. The questions are, is it a health issue, something else that is temporary, or it is a long-term thing that is bothering him (unlikely). He had a good start the first time back from his hamstring injury but hasn't been good since.
As I look at the free agent starter market, I get more and more intrigued. Here are a couple of examples:
Clay Buchholtz was pitching extremely well this season until he went down with injury. His 2.69 Fielding Independent Pitching was quite impressive. His K/BB ratio was 5 to 1. Health has been his career issue.
Rich Hill is a 35-year-old journeyman who has been given a chance to start this month and has posted a 1.17 ERA and 0.52 WHIP in 23 innings over three starts. He may have been the best starter in baseball over this brief time. Maybe he is becoming a rich man's Ryan Vogelsong.
There are many other intriguing pitchers out there as well. This looks like a great winter to have money available to spend on starting pitching.
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 27, 2015 15:28:43 GMT -5
Rog, if my choices are Bucholtz or Hill, vs Leake? I'll take Leake. And for me, it's not even close.
Price? Tremendous stuff, but I'm still a proponent of Zimmerman, not because I think he's better necessarily, but because:
1-I think Price will "price" himself out of our range
2-Zimmerman is intimidating; more so, I believe, than Price. Maybe not quite the stuff, but Zim is close to scary.
3-Zim is likely to be more affordable.
boly
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Sept 27, 2015 15:47:00 GMT -5
The attitude of Rog and the wimps at ATF shows that the Giants propaganda machine is doing its job well. Why should we expect them to go for the best when they have everyone happy with going for the bargains? Even after it failed miserably this year, people are still down with the same crap
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Post by Rog on Sept 28, 2015 14:10:19 GMT -5
All your comments are true, Boly. I think Price is the pick of the litter, but Zimmermann seems more likely because of, well what you said.
As for the other pitchers I mentioned, those were simply intriguing guys. I'd have to look to see if I were more interested in ANY of them than Mike Leake.
But here's an intriguing question. As you mentioned, Price likely has too high a David tag. But are there any pitchers on the list I quickly made up or anyone else we would rather have along with Price than have Zimmermann and Leake at about the same price?
Was it Boagie who mentioned Jeff Samardzija, feeling that Dave Righetti could straighten him back out? Some of the guys on that list I like, but they haven't been able to stay healthy. At the right price though, maybe one of those guys could complement Cain, hoping that at least one of them would be healthy at a given time.
Another question: Are we sold on Chris Heston? And for another, does Jake Peavy have another season in him, and can he stay healthy? Is Clayton Blackburn good enough to be at least the emergency backup guy?
If the Giants are unable to sign two guys, are there players you would be willing to trade to come up with another good pitcher? Whom would you like to pick up for the bullpen? Free agent or trade there?
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Post by Rog on Sept 28, 2015 14:29:33 GMT -5
A final thought on Price. A year ago the Giants didn't even consider Max Scherzer because of his agent, Scott Boras. As it turned out, Boras was able to craft a deal that spread the money out so that it could be affordable for the Nationals. It seemed like a deal tailored to the Giants' needs.
Now Scherzer may be the best deal of the three. His ERA is 3/4th of a run lower than Lester and nearly a full run lower than Shields. And while his ERA is "merely" 2.98, he has really pitched better than that. The guy has struck out 10.6 batters per nine innings, while walking only 1.3 per nine. His 8.01 K/BB ratio is the best in the National League -- by quite a bit over Clayton Kershaw's 6.85. Scherzer's ratio is more than DOUBLE that of all but 11 other NL pitchers.
So how much more would Price need to cost than Zimmermann in order for Zimmermann to be the better deal? I don't know that Price will be as much better than Zimmermann as Scherzer was over Lester and Shields, but he likely will be better.
Zimmermann is making $215 million total over 7 years. His contract is a year longer than Lester's and about $5 million per year more, but it's also spread out over 14 years. And he's half a year younger than Lester. The Nationals are paying Scherzer $17 million this year, which is a million less than the Giants are paying Tim Lincecum. It's also $3 million less than Jon Lester is making
There has been a lot of criticism of Scott Boras here, some of it likely justified (at least depending one's viewpoint). But he did a great job of getting a ton of money for Scherzer while making it affordable for the Nationals.
Regarding Boras, his job is to get the best deal for his client that he can. If he's unethical in doing so, I'm definitely not for him. But I haven't seen any breach of ethics listed for him. If someone can direct me to specific times he's been unethical, I'll change my mind about him. Right now based on what I DO know, I'm not against him.
But most importantly, could Price be this year's Scherzer, and how much money would that make him worth to the Giants?
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 28, 2015 20:49:36 GMT -5
Rog---Was it Boagie who mentioned Jeff Samardzija, feeling that Dave Righetti could straighten him back out? Some of the guys on that list I like, but they haven't been able to stay healthy. At the right price though, maybe one of those guys could complement Cain, hoping that at least one of them would be healthy at a given time. ******boly says***** I think it was Boagie, Rog, or maybe Mark. IMHO, based upon his recent troubles, he'd certainly cost less. And there IS risk invovled. CAN Righetti straighten him out? Or will he be another Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum? Should still be at the top of their game... but.... Another question: Are we sold on Chris Heston? And for another, does Jake Peavy have another season in him, and can he stay healthy? Is Clayton Blackburn good enough to be at least the emergency backup guy? ******boly says***** I am NOT sold on Heston, Rog. Not by a long shot. All I have to do is look at his last 10 games. NOT PRETTY. In his start Sunday, I SAW the moment when he lost it, and I said so aloud. All of a sudden, he jerked his arm across his body, the ball went wide left of the strike zone and almost to the back stop. To ME, that was the moment in time when he fell out of sync. He has the stuff; a good enough sinker and other pitches to be a # 4 or 5 guy.. but I question his command. I mean, for crying out loud, HOW MANY GUYS did he hit in his no hitter? How many BB? No. His command has to improve and improve DRASTICALLY for me to be sold. Until then... he's just a guy. boly Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3053/foghorn-bleacher-report#ixzz3n5UTzxKh |
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 28, 2015 20:52:47 GMT -5
Rog---Regarding Boras, his job is to get the best deal for his client that he can. If he's unethical in doing so, I'm definitely not for him. But I haven't seen any breach of ethics listed for him. If someone can direct me to specific times he's been unethical, I'll change my mind about him. Right now based on what I DO know, I'm not against him.
***boly says***
I have, rog, big time.
But unless you're a practicing Jew or Christian, you wouldn't understand.
it's call USERY.
Usery is taking advantage of others because you CAN.
That sums up Boras in a nutshell.
The Tora and the New Testament CONDEMN all who resort to Usery, and Boras does!
Worse, he does it under the guise of "doing what's best for my client."
Horse S_ _ T!
BORAS gets more money when he signs his mercenaries for more money.
And owners are STUPID enough to fall for it.
I wouldn't touch a Boras guy. No how, no way.
boly
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Post by rxmeister on Sept 29, 2015 9:12:29 GMT -5
Scherzer has had a great year for the Nats, but when they were struggling and falling behind the Mets, he was at his worst. He had a 3.40 ERA in July and a 6.43 ERA in August, after being the best pitcher in baseball before that. Now that they're eliminated, he's pitching well again. Not that I wouldn't take him, but he came up short when they needed him the most. And the Nats will be paying him forever, which is why they can't hold onto a pitcher like Jordan Zimmerman. As for Boras, I agree with Rog. He gets top dollar for his clients and that's his job. I don't like signing his clients because he waits forever to get them signed and then you lose out on other options and can possibly wind up with nobody, but if you need just one guy and Boras has him, then you deal with it. I also agree with Randy that the Giants can't sign the Kazmir or Samardzija type as their top starter acquisition and attempt to compete with the big boys. They have to do better.
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Post by donk33 on Sept 29, 2015 13:52:54 GMT -5
Scherzer has had a great year for the Nats, but when they were struggling and falling behind the Mets, he was at his worst. He had a 3.40 ERA in July and a 6.43 ERA in August, after being the best pitcher in baseball before that. Now that they're eliminated, he's pitching well again. Not that I wouldn't take him, but he came up short when they needed him the most. And the Nats will be paying him forever, which is why they can't hold onto a pitcher like Jordan Zimmerman. As for Boras, I agree with Rog. He gets top dollar for his clients and that's his job. I don't like signing his clients because he waits forever to get them signed and then you lose out on other options and can possibly wind up with nobody, but if you need just one guy and Boras has him, then you deal with it. I also agree with Randy that the Giants can't sign the Kazmir or Samardzija type as their top starter acquisition and attempt to compete with the big boys. They have to do better. dk...isn't it strange that our conservative guys think Boras is bad because he gets top dollar for his guys playing a kids game....no one forces anyone to over pay for something you really can live without....now the guy that raised the price of a life saving drug from dollars to thousands...he should be _________!! (fill in the blank).... |
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Sept 29, 2015 14:02:18 GMT -5
Boras is a leech and a scaliwag but he's a part of the game and I, as a conservative, have no specific issue with him. I certainly wouldn't refrain from working with him if one of his clients could help the team. He's going to try to get the best deal for his client and his methods may be a bit more aggressive than some...but if I were a player I'd want my agent to go all out for me too.
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 29, 2015 21:46:35 GMT -5
Randy I would refrain from working with him.
I'd go so far to say that unless he called me, we wouldn't talk.
He represents the WORST of the 21st century; Greed.
Money is his god, no ifs ands or buts.
And I don't even listen to that nonsense that "he's just getting the best deal he can for his client."
I've explained why that's horse crap.
HE manuevers a deal for more money and HE gets more money.
It's that simple, and that complicated.
And yes, the owners are stupid. Greed will do that.
Then again, for most of them, money is their god, too.
This isn't a liberal or conservative issue at all, Don. Not in the least.
You and I are usually on the same page, but here, we're not even close.
If money is what people worship, then I feel sorry for them.
They have no honor.
They have no integrity.
boly
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Sept 29, 2015 23:50:03 GMT -5
while all you say may be true, it just comes down to caveat emptor. If the GM and staff do their homework, none of the agent's shenanigans make a difference. You stick to your price and don't go past it. You can play games on your end too with no guilt in order to level the playing field. To me you have to put the needs of the team above your personal dislike for the agent.
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Post by rxmeister on Sept 30, 2015 7:03:25 GMT -5
As I mentioned Randy, the problem to me is not Boras' price, but the fact that he waits too long with his client before he finally signs the deal. Imagine last off season if you wanted Scherzer and had to wait forever as Boras keeps hoping for a better deal and all the other teams are locking up the other starters on the market. That's a good strategy for Boras and his client, but not for your team. Scherzer then signs elsewhere and you're now scrambling to find a plan B one week before spring training. By the way, Rog, I glanced at your list again and Rick Porcello signed a ridiculous 4/80 extension with the Red Sox, so he's not a free agent.
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Post by Rog on Sept 30, 2015 9:49:45 GMT -5
Boras is a leech and a scaliwag
Rog -- I'd like to see you specific evidence of this, Randy.
By the way, I expect the Giants will land one of the Big 3 starters, although there is an element of luck that enters into it, too. Who would have thought that last winter the Giants would offer Sandoval, Lester and Shields at least as much as they received and yet not land a single one of them?
This year though, I expect they'll sign Zimmermann.
Mark made a very good point about why it's tough to deal with Boras. From his clients' point of view, it's usually excellent for him to wait it out in order to get the best deal. From an individual team's perspective, it's very, very tough, since as Mark indicated, waiting for a Boras client can result in too many missed opportunities. James Shields held out even longer than Scherzer.
It might be important to note that both the Nationals and Padres were considered to have good rotations even before their signings of Max and James. Clearly the Giants didn't have that luxury then, and don't have it now.
As to Mark's comment that Scherzer slumped when the Nationals need him most, that is true. But without his great start, they wouldn't have been in a position for it to matter as much. Player's don't really control when they get hot or not.
Scherzer wound up getting a LOT of money. But his deal is far more team-friendly than Jon Lester's. And Max is a far better pitcher than Jon. Lester's three ERA's closest to his signing were 4.82, 3.75 and 2.46. The best one can say about those numbers is that they were heading in the right direction. But wouldn't it be logical that a pitcher in his 30's would decline?
One would expect Max to decline as well. But his K/9 numbers the past five seasons have been 11.1, 10.1, 10.3 and 10.6. Lester's have been 7.5, 7.5, 9.0 and 9.0. That's very good, but not great like Max's. Jon's WHIP has been 1.38, 1.29, 1.10 and 1.15. Max's has been 1.27, 0.97, 1.18 and 0.95.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Sept 30, 2015 12:23:41 GMT -5
I can also see where the time factor can be a problem. I just don't see dismissing ALL of his clients out of hand merely because you dislike him. Again, it comes down to having a set price and a set time table and sticking to it...and having good backup plans...better ones than Casey McGehee.
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Post by donk33 on Sept 30, 2015 13:33:07 GMT -5
while all you say may be true, it just comes down to caveat emptor. If the GM and staff do their homework, none of the agent's shenanigans make a difference. You stick to your price and don't go past it. You can play games on your end too with no guilt in order to level the playing field. To me you have to put the needs of the team above your personal dislike for the agent. dk...going back, not long ago, Sabean was forced to replace a player whom he traded knowing he was injured......and there was a stretch when several Giants were traded away and broke down right after the trade....I think Vogey was one of them..... now we read about trades depending on physicals...I don't remember if they that way in the past...
One thing I liked about the NY Giants...when Horace was sober and a rookie or low paid guy was doing better than expected...Horace would tear up his contract and give him an instant raise.....I don't think they can do that anymore....
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