Belt on the Bases

[Rog]

The bigger problem with Brandon Belt's triple wasn't that he slid late and hard, slightly oversliding the bag, but that he didn't run hard to get there.  He could have, probably should have, made it standing up.  Later Marlon Byrd cost himself a double by also watching the ball instead of running all out.

But the worst example of not hustling came from the guy I might have least expected it from -- Kelby Tomlinson, who should have been on first base easily after a Brandon Phillips boot, but who was instead thrown out by a third of a step.

As for Belt, he pretty much showed he wasn't the brainless runner he was accused of when he went from second to third on a hard ground out to third by Perez, taking third after hot sacker Freese made a strong throw to first from the third base line.  One could argue that already being in scoring position, he shouldn't have taken the risk, but he felt his odds were very good, and indeed he made it without a throw, thanks in part to a low throw by Freese.

Belt has certainly made some gaffes on the base paths.  But he has also made some good moves, including being 11 of 14 on steals -- a very nice feat for someone with average speed.

[klaiggeb]

Sorry, rog, but I disagree. At least part of the time.

Yeah, he has moments... but all too often brain-dead moments, like:

Over sliding 3B

Get hung up at 2B after that double.

UNforgivable.

boly

[sfgdood]

he's not only made gaffes on the basepaths but also in the field, forgetting his assignments and ranging too far away from the line. He also misses straight fastballs down Broadway way too often.

[Rog]

WAR, which includes base running, has Brandon at 3.9 per Baseball-Reference and 4.4 per Fan Graphs. In other words, Brandon has been worth about four wins to the Giants. That represents a very good season.

As for getting caught off second, that was a mistake. Brandon got caught when the shortstop ranged back to cover second base and the ball was cut off and relayed. But Brandon was being aggressive, hoping he would be able to get to third with one out.

You say you would like to see the Giants be more aggressive on the bases, to force the opponents into errors. Sometimes those errors will instead turn into outs.

Despite his base running errors, Brandon is considered a plus two runs in base running. That has really come from his nice base stealing. But the net effect is that his base running hasn't been a negative -- despite his mistakes.

As for his fielding, he makes mistakes there too -- mostly being overaggressive. But they mentioned on the telecast last night that despite an error he made after getting hit on the head on the play we discussed above, he leads first basemen in fielding percentage. Fan Graphs has him a plus 8 runs, meaning his glove has been worth about one extra win.

Belt is viewed as a positive hitter, a positive fielder and a slightly positive base runner. No wonder he has been worth about four wins, which actually ranks him ahead of Joe Panik and behind only Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Brandon Crawford and Matt Duffy.

Between them those six guys have been worth about 29 wins, which means they are all at or close to All-Star level.

Since he has been a slightly positive base runner, perhaps we shouldn't be picking on his base running. Or if we are going to do so, how about nailing him for not running all out on his triple instead of slightly over-sliding the bag. Had he run all out, he probably would have been in standing.

The over-sliding was an error of aggressiveness (as was his being picked off second base). Not running all out was an error of omission or laziness, depending on which one wants to choose.

I'm not sure why we get on Brandon, when in the same game in which he over-slid third base, Mike Tomlinson was thrown out at first base only because he didn't hustle, and Marlon Byrd turned a triple into a double with similar non-hustle.

I don't get why we are on Brandon's case for errors of aggressiveness but let others (and Brandon) slide for a lack of hustle. If I were the manager, I would work with Brandon on making fewer mistakes on the bases, but I would let him and his teammates that not hustling was even less acceptable.

I just don't get it why others don't seem to feel the same. I can excuse a guy if he's trying a lot easier than when he's not.

[Rog]

He also misses straight fastballs down Broadway way too often.

Rog -- And yet despite that, he has a .839 OPS and a 130 OPS+. To get a sense of how good a 130 OPS+ is, Orlando Cepeda is in the Hall of Fame for his bat with a 133 OPS+. In other words, when we include the glove and legs, Brandon this season is playing at a level higher than Orlando played over his career.

Orlando finished his career with 50 WAR. Another nine seasons like this one, and Brandon will equal that. I'm not saying Brandon will become a Hall of Famer. I doubt very much that he will. What I am saying is that he's under-appreciated by some here. Put eight Belts on the field, five in the rotation and three or four in the bullpen, and the Giants would easily be making the postseason.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3040/belt-on-bases?page=1#ixzz3m46uTUXO

[sfgdood]

As for his fielding, he makes mistakes there too -- mostly being overaggressive. But they mentioned on the telecast last night that despite an error he made after getting hit on the head on the play we discussed above, he leads first basemen in fielding percentage. Fan Graphs has him a plus 8 runs, meaning his glove has been worth about one extra win.

As you know, I put ZERO stock in WAR and other designer stats which, to my thinking, only aid Fantasy players in choosing their draft orders. WAR cannot take into account very important intangible factors. Just like defensive stats are VERY misleading. I recall Darren Lewis, who I agree was a great fielder...but his fielding % was GREATLY aided by the fact that his arm was so weak that he never tried to gun any runners out. It's far easier to avoid errors that way. As for Belt...he often ranges far to his right, fields a ball that the 2nd baseman could make an easy play on and throws off balance to the pitcher, a moving target. The runner beats the play though no error is charged...a MENTAL error was committed but Belt's fielding % isn't affected. The pitcher gets credited with a base hit that never should have been. Oh and Belt didn't get an error when he was wondering clueless off the base in DC either. Yeah, nice credible stats.

[Rog]

As you know, I put ZERO stock in WAR and other designer stats which, to my thinking, only aid Fantasy players in choosing their draft orders.


Rog -- I have an annual fantasy book I purchased and another one on how to win at fantasy, and neither has mentioned WAR. I've never read or heard it mentioned in conjunction with fantasy.

That you put no stock in WAR is sad. The world of baseball seems to be leaving you behind. Not WAR in particular, but the metrics revolution that is growing exponentially in all the major sports.

As for Brandon Belt's WAR, stop and think about it. He has hit well despite playing in a pitchers' park and is one of the best fielders at his position. He can even steal bases, although he is also prone to making mistakes on the bases. Why WOULDN'T he be worth four wins?

He's behind Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Brandon Crawford and Matt Duffy (who might be the best base runner on the team) and slightly ahead of Joe Panik. That group encompasses the game's best catcher, one of its best pitchers, and an entire infield that is considered by some to be the best in baseball.

The next group of six is made up of Chris Heston, George Kontos, Javier Lopez, Hunter Strickland, Kelby Tomlinson and Jake Peavy. That group is far less valuable than the first one, but they make up useful depth players. Depth players, not bench players.

The third group is Gregor Blanco, Nori Aoki, Santiago Casilla and Sergio Romo. No one else on the team has contributed too much.

Something just for fun. Madison Bumgarner's bat is considered to have been worth a win this season. He should win the Silver Slugger again, shouldn't he?

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3040/belt-on-bases#ixzz3m4ewbVJS