Moves I'd like to see for next year.

[klaiggeb]

We all know we need starting pitching. Period.

1-We need to re sign Leake AND sign a top of the rotation guy like Zimmerman.

2-bullpen roles need to be re defined. Casilla wins the closer job by default, and though I'd LOVE for us to go out and get a closer, starting pitching must be the priority.

a-Romo becomes what Lopez is: a ROUGY Righty One Out Guy
b-Strickland becomes the 8th inning set up guy, ready to become THE closer when, not if, but WHEN Casilla falters

3-Pick up Aoki's option. He's TOOOO valuable in the lead off spot.

4-Teach Tomlinson to play all of the outfield spots. He can be the 5th outfielder and the back up infielder. He hits TOOO well not to be with the big club. My goal would be IF Pagan falters, he takes over in CF

5-Re sign Blanco

6-Cut Affeldt loose.

7-Move Pagan OUT of the one hole spot, and INTO the 8 hole spot.

12-And a distant 12 at that, have our 1B coach LOSE that boiler. That's embarrasing and unprofessional having him out there looking like that!

boly

[sfgdood]

If ALL we do is sign Leake and one of the top 3 FAs (Zimmerman, Price or Cueto), I'll be ecstatic.

Billy Hayes has actually lost a bit of the gut late in the season. K&K mentioned he was on a diet and a workout program so apparently he is embarrassed too. If he sticks to the program, he should look like a much smaller man next Spring.

I don't think that we need to get a closer from the outside. Strickland and Osich can do the job if Casilla falters.

[klaiggeb]

I don't want Cueto, Randy, IMHO, from what I've seen:

1-He's injured too often
2-He's a MEMEMEME guy, not a 'team' guy.

And I agree with you about Strickland; which is pretty much what I said; "When Casilla falters...he becomes the closer."

I hadn't thought about Osich, that's not a bad call.

boly

[rxmeister]

Osich has been bad two nights in a row, and that's been disappointing. Strickland also spit the bit last night. A rare bad night from the bullpen, and even a big night from the bats couldn't overcome it. Very disappointing loss with the Dodgers losing as well.

[sfgdood]

This is yet another example of the starting rotation leaving the bully twisting in the wind. The rotation has exactly ONE guy who goes consistently deep into games. The relievers are all gassed from overwork, both recently and over the long season. The chickens all came home to roost last night.

[klaiggeb]

The problem last night was, IMHO, that all of the guys had already been over worked.

all that usage causes tired arms, tired arms = missed locations.

boly

[Rog]

The rotation has exactly ONE guy who goes consistently deep into games.


Rog -- As closely as I can determine, Mike Leake has averaged the 10th-most innings per start of any NL pitcher, and Chris Heston ranks #27. So that number is probably three.




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[Rog]

The problem last night was, IMHO, that all of the guys had already been over worked.


Rog -- Don't the Giants have 15 or more pitchers on their roster? I don't see any reason why they should be overworked. Especially with a day off last Thursday and then 7 innings from Peavy on Friday, 9 from Bumgarner on Saturday, and 6 from Leake on Sunday. Are we saying that Bruce doesn't handle his staff as well as we've been giving him credit for?



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[rxmeister]

The bullpen bounced back last night fortunately. Casilla has looked a little shaky lately though. They can use the day off today for sure.

[Rog]

Mark, you're playing Fantasy Baseball now, and you may be looking at recent performances. I tend to look at relievers over the past 30 days or over their last 10 outings. For you and for Boly, who wants Romo to be a ROOGY, here are how those two guys have done over their past 10 appearances:

Casilla -- 0.00 ERA, 0.77 WHIP (You're right that he's been shaky in EACH of his past two outings, which shows how outstanding he was in his previous eight.

Romo -- 1.74 ERA, 0.77 WHIP (Obviously he pitched poorly in his last outing, and was just as bad 10 outings back. In between he pitched eight innings over eight games, allowing no runs and just one hit and one walk. Sergio has been very good in the second half, even as he's faced some lefties. The homer he gave up Tuesday was to Todd Frazier, a right-handed batter.)

Sergio has still had a very tough year against lefties, but he's gotten much better of late. Over each of their last ten performances, the pair has combined for a 0.87 ERA. That's pretty darn good.

As an aside, the homer Sergio yielded came in his third appearance in three days. Over the years I have continued to harp on not using relievers more than two days in a row. Relievers tend not to be very effective on that third straight day, and it can't be helping their arms.

When a top reliever on his third straight day is unlikely to be much more effective than a lesser reliever, doesn't it make sense to use the lesser guy and save the top reliever for the next day? Unless it's a do or die game, I would certainly say so. And even then, it might make sense.

[Rog]

Jake Peavy's effort last night went six full innings, putting the starters behind Bumgarner over 60% in pitching at least well into the sixth inning. Not saying that's great, but it does show that we are more likely to see them do so than not.

[klaiggeb]

Rog, I think what you're missing in Mark's post.

Casilla HAS BEEN shaky for a while now. the other night, he was just exhausted, as were most of those in the pen.

They've had to be over worked because of the situation the team is in, which is exacerbated by starters putting us in a hole before we even get to hit. i.e. Heston the other night.

When the bullpen is consistently asked to pitch almost 4 innings a night... there just aren't enough arms to carry that load.



And did anyone notice that Bochy's kid was not being used these last 2 games?

I did.

I think Bruce is proud as the dickens of his kid... but sees what we see; he just doesn't have the stuff to be a late inning guy.

boly

[Rog]

Casilla HAS BEEN shaky for a while now. the other night, he was just exhausted, as were most of those in the pen.


Rog -- I feel like Santiago has been shaky most of the season -- kind of like Brian Wilson was. Rod Beck too.

Santiago's WHIP this season is his worst as a Giant, 1.32. Wilson's CAREER WHIP as a Giant was 1.34. Yet he saved 171 games for them. Beck's WHIP as a Giant was 1.07, but his career ERA of 2.97 was virtually identical to Casilla's 2.96 this season.

Santiago has somehow saved 34 games in 39 attempts this season. That's an 87% success rate, or just about the same as Robb Nen's with the team.

You indicate Santiago has been overworked, yet since August 13th, he hasn't given up a run in 12.1 innings. He's given up six hits and three walks. Maybe he pitches better when he's overworked.

Now, that sarcasm, but if he has truly been overworked, why is it that he has done his best pitching down the stretch? Aren't those two things close to mutually exclusive?

The Giants' record in Santiago's 39 save opportunities is 36-3.

So I agree he's been shaky. But he hasn't let it affect his ability to save games. And for a little over a month, he hasn't allowed a single run and has yielded only 9 base runners. In other words, he's been shaky/excellent.

Kind of like Brian Wilson.


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[Rog]

When the bullpen is consistently asked to pitch almost 4 innings a night.


Rog -- With the exception of extra inning games, they've been asked to pitch less than three innings per game. Even including extra inning games, they bullpen has averaged 3.03 innings per game.

3.03 innings per game with eight relievers is essentially 3/8th of an inning per reliever per game. That's just over 60 innings per reliever. That's wearing a bullpen out? I don't see why, do you? And of course with injuries and relievers sent down and brought up, that's well under 60 innings per bullpen member.

We have spoken how the Giants' past teams had starters that went much deeper into games, seeming to imply that the bullpen shouldn't have gotten nearly as worn out. Well, in 2010 the relievers average 2.85 innings per game. That's a little over an inning per week less that they are pitching this season. Is that small amount enough to mean an overworked bullpen compared to one that isn't overworked?

By the way, the 2010 Giants' bullpen posted a very good 2.78 ERA in the season's second half, indicating they likely weren't overworked that season. This year's bullpen has averaged a 2.25 ERA in the second half.

I'm sorry, but the results just aren't supporting the idea that the bullpen has been overworked. What is it that I'm missing?

I've been accused of not using my eyes on this topic. The closer we look at the results, the more it appears I HAVE been using them. The "I know what I see" point of view of others isn't supported by the results. In fact, the results indicate just the opposite.

What is it that I'm missing? A subjective viewpoint?




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[klaiggeb]

What are you missing?

Every time someone makes a statement, Rog, you dig into numbers and, IMHO, and immediately take the opposite point of view.

Many times/often, you try to paint a rosy picture, that, based upon the numbers, everything really isn't as bad as the poster claims, often times, Rog, selectively choosing stats and numbers to prove your point.

When you do that, it reminds me of all of the 'experts' who tried to prove that Global Warming was an actual fact, when, in fact, all they did was look at the northern data, and ignored the southern data that proved conclusively that the southern ice pack had almost tripled in size.


Everything isn't rosy in Giant World this year.

This team has warts; big, ugly warts, and all too often you try to gloss over them.

That's what I think you're missing.

boly

[rxmeister]

My comments weren't meant as a knock at the bullpen, Rog, just disappointment after a tough loss. Nowhere did I say they are poor pitchers and need to be replaced. Let's not forget that this thread started with Boly advocating the Giants go out and get a new closer and I've disagreed with that in the past and still do, and that my quote was "a rare bad night by the bullpen."

[klaiggeb]

Mark, I still think you're wrong. We need to get a closer, OR, Strickland MUST gain better control of his slider so he can assume that role.

I've watched Hunter CLOSELY and what I still see is a guy who is still "iffy" with his other pitches.

Right now, he's a gas guy, and nothing more... which is fine IF he's hitting his locations; which he frequently is NOT.


Now I have great confidence in him to get that command, and I say that BECAUSE of the way he recovered from last season's God-Awful appearances!

He's mentally tough and he looks to me like a guy willing to make the changes necessary to be darned good.

He sort of reminds me of a right handed Bumgarner. As Krukow says, and I LOVE this; "he takes every at bat PERSONALLY!

THAT is my kind of guy!

boly

[Rog]

Everything isn't rosy in Giant World this year.

This team has warts; big, ugly warts, and all too often you try to gloss over them.

That's what I think you're missing.


Rog -- I won't get into your reply here other than to say that the topic was whether the bullpen has been overused or not, and your comments don't seem to address that issue specifically.

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[Rog]

I too have qualms about the bullpen, but there are two realities:

1. They seem to have performed as a group better than we are giving them credit for. ERA doesn't tell as much of the story for relievers as it does for starters, but the bullpen's 2.31 ERA in the second half indicates they have been pretty good. The 2.31 itself is outstanding.

2. Santiago Casilla worries me this season too, but 34 out of 39 save opportunities he has gotten the job done. How well has he gotten the job done? Let me ask you this question: Was Brian Wilson a good closer for the Giants? Brian saved 87% of his chances with the Giants, while posting a 3.21 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. This season Santiago has saved 87% of his chances while posting a 2.96 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. Like Wilson, he has struck out more than a batter per inning.

In other words, this season Casilla has been Brian Wilson in a manner of speaking. If that's not good enough, then yes, the Giants need a new closer.

So what makes sense going forward?

Probably continuing to install the new guard. Hunter Strickland in particular looks like a potential closer or set up man. Meanwhile, Casilla has gotten the job done, and despite having a mid-season slump as seems to be his wont in recent years, for the past two months he has been excellent.

It's time for Jeremy Affeldt to go. His body seems to have worn out, what with off-the-field injuries and other factors. Most of the rest of the bullpen has pitched well.

All-in-all, I think most teams would trade bullpens with the Giants. I don't know how their 2.31 second-half ERA compares with other NL teams, but I would bet it's in the top two or three. We have talked about how good the Cardinals' pitching has been, and sure enough, their bullpen posted a 2.43 ERA in the first half. In the second half though, it has been 0.70 runs higher than the Giants'.

Sure the Giants could improve their pen. But I don't see it as a top need. When a bullpen has a 3.09 ERA on the season and 2.31 in the sxecond half, it's probably not at the top of the needs list.

[Rog]

often times, Rog, selectively choosing stats and numbers to prove your point.


Rog -- If I selectively choose stats just to back up my case, it should be really easy to shoot my case down by simply pointing out the stats I didn't present and how those stats overshadow the ones I did present.

It's easy to say "all you do is look at numbers" (even if that is far from the case), but it would be far more fair to refute those "biased" stats with stats we feel are unbiased or more balanced.

If I am biased in my usage of stats, I apologize. I try hard not to be. I may not present every stat I come across, but there are stats that support my position as well that I don't present. But if I'm not being fair, please present the stats for the other side so I can be more informed and less biased in my opinions.

With regard to the bullpen in particular, which pertinent stats did I overlook? One stat I can't find is inherited runners allowed to score and prevented from scoring. I used to be able to find that and several times presented it here. But my source (Baseball Prospectus) for some reason no longer publishes that. And that does play an important part in evaluating a reliever or a bullpen. If anyone here knows where to find that, I would really appreciate you're sharing it with me. One thing I believe though is that it is highly unlikely that a bullpen posts a 2.31 ERA and DOESN"T do a good job of preventing runs.

No one wants to learn more here than I. If you come across anything that will help me do so, please share it with me. And if you think I'm cherry-picking the stats I use, present the important ones I'm overlooking.

Thanks.



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