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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 5, 2015 23:03:43 GMT -5
Well, for a line up that couldn't beat a high school team...We ain't going no where, but a win is a win, so I'll take it.
boly
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Post by rxmeister on Sept 6, 2015 10:05:59 GMT -5
Who said this team has no depth? Our starting catcher gets hurt and we pull this Buster Posey guy off the bench! Now that's a deep team!
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 6, 2015 13:04:59 GMT -5
We're losing catchers faster than the Titanic took on water!
boly
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sfgdood
Long time member 
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Sept 6, 2015 13:58:39 GMT -5
well, at least it happened in an odd year when the FO doesn't care enough to go all out to win
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Post by rxmeister on Sept 7, 2015 8:23:27 GMT -5
Considering this is an odd year after a WS championship it's been fairly enjoyable, even though we're not going to make the post season. 2013 was an embarrassing disaster and this team at least was competitive. The one thing they have to look at after the season is why they had so many long losing streaks. To me the answer is obvious and it should be to them too. Starting pitching. If they don't win the Bumgarner start, there's nobody else they send out there that they count on for a sure win.
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 7, 2015 10:04:57 GMT -5
Mark, you actually summed things up very well.
For the most part, this was an enjoyable season.
So many nice things happened; The emergence of Duffy is at the top of the list, followed by a few others:
1-Strickland continuing to grow towards the dominant closer I think he can be.
2-The emergence of Osich
3-The arrival of Tomlinson, whom, I think, will one day find a way into the every day line up.
Unfortunately, I'll always remember the downside; Injuries.
Every team gets injuries, every team.
But most NOT to the extent of this group.
Pence, Pence, Pence, Aoki, Aoki, Panik, Cain, Cain, Pagan, and to a lesser extent, but still bad all the same, Crawford.
Hard to lose 4 of your starting players and remain in serious contention.
boly
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Post by Rog on Sept 9, 2015 16:05:10 GMT -5
well, at least it happened in an odd year when the FO doesn't care enough to go all out to win Rog -- I see no point to this kind of talk. What did the Giants do a year ago -- when they DID win? . They signed Mike Morse. This season they signed Nori Aoki and Casey McGehee. . They signed Brandon Hicks, Tyler Colvin and Travis Ishikawa. This year it was Justin Maxwell. . They signed Tim Hudson. This year it was Jake Peavy and Sergio Romo. . They re-signed Tim Lincecum. This year it was Ryan Vogelsong. . They traded for Jake Peavy. This year it was Mike Leake, Marlon Byrd and Alejandro De Aza. It would seem the Giants did at least as much this off-season and at the trading deadline(s) as they did prior to 2014. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3027/win-figure#ixzz3lHFdAsG9 |
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Sept 9, 2015 16:43:54 GMT -5
it was more about what they did NOT do than what they ultimately did.
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 9, 2015 20:13:20 GMT -5
Rog, you can rationalize what they did and didn't do all you want.
You can break everything down to numbers to fit what you want to see.
But the facts are these:
1-We did not sign a top flight pitcher and we desperately needed to.
2-We likely are not going to the playoffs because the FO didn't do enough to acquire what we needed in the pitching department.
3-The front office tried to 'dazzle' us with numbers saying, "we don't need another starter. We already have 6 or 7." Which totally misses the point:
a-Lincecum hadn't been effective for a long time
b-Cain was coming back from surgery
c-Hudson faltered down the stretch last year, and was one year older and not well in ST
d-Vogey was not coming off a very good year at all.
So, yeah, we had 6 or 7 starters, but most weren't worth a damn.
boly
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Post by Rog on Sept 10, 2015 22:43:59 GMT -5
Rog, you can rationalize what they did and didn't do all you want. You can break everything down to numbers to fit what you want to see. Rog -- As I hope you can see from the Yusmeiro Petit analysis, I view the situation as a fan/scout, then I look at the numbers and see where my analysis takes me. Then I decide what I see. I believe you may have the process backwards. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3027/win-figure#ixzz3lOjjn2He |
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Post by Rog on Sept 10, 2015 23:13:28 GMT -5
Boly -- But the facts are these: 1-We did not sign a top flight pitcher and we desperately needed to. Rog -- This is a fact. Boly -- 2-We likely are not going to the playoffs because the FO didn't do enough to acquire what we needed in the pitching department. Rog -- That they didn't get the pitcher is true. That it will cost the Giants the playoffs may well be true (although there is no guarantee that with the injuries they would have made the playoffs anyway. Barring a huge comeback, WAR says they wouldn't have made the playoffs anyway. The two pitchers they went after were John Lester and James Shields, both of whom are probably available in trade at a reduced price after having down -- not horrible -- years. In case we've forgotten, let's look at each situation separately. With Lester, the Giants were willing to pay the money, but the Cubs signed one of Lester's buddies, and he chose to sign there. Maybe the Giants should have signed his buddy, but the choice was ultimately Lester's. There are multiple teams competing for these free agents, and you can't expect to get just the guy you want. I do fault them for not at least discussing Max Scherzer, but they made an executive decision to boycott Scherzer's agent, Scott Boras, who ultimately put together a reasonably affordable deal for the Nationals. With Shields, as Mark has agreed (given that it is a fact), the Giants judged Shields' market better than he did. They offered him slightly more than he ultimately received, but he chose to hold out for the much bigger he incorrectly thought he could command. The Giants were right, but they were pretty much forced to move on so as not to be left empty-handed. Boly -- 3-The front office tried to 'dazzle' us with numbers saying, "we don't need another starter. We already have 6 or 7." Which totally misses the point: Rog -- You state this as a fact, but you will need to show us where the Giants made this statement. Clearly the fact that they went hard after Lester and then Shields tell us they weren't very likely to make such a statement. They say actions speak louder than words, but you will need to show us how their actions differed from what they said. Is there anyone else here on the board who can document their saying, effectively, that they didn't need a starter because they already had 6 or 7. That they added Ryan Vogelsong at the last minute also speaks to their not believing what you say they said. Show us where they said it, or please don't present it as a fact. It may simply be a misunderstanding. Boly -- a-Lincecum hadn't been effective for a long time b-Cain was coming back from surgery c-Hudson faltered down the stretch last year, and was one year older and not well in ST d-Vogey was not coming off a very good year at all. Rog -- With a couple of at least minor exceptions what you say here is factual. Lincecum HAD been effective, but not for a whole season. Vogelsong's year wasn't nearly as bad as you make it out to be. Would it surprise you to know that Ryan's season was FAR better, for example, than Lester's 2012 season (which last winter was just three seasons back). In fact, Ryan's season was about the equivalent of the average of Lester's 2012 and 2013 seasons. Ryan's ERA was a not-horrible 4.00, and his 1.28 WHIP was very similar to his 1.25 in 2011 and his 1.23 in 2012, seasons in which his ERA was 2.71 and 3.37. His Fielding Independent Pitching was 3.85, which also wasn't far off his 3.67 in 2011 and his 3.70 in 2012. By the way, in 211 and 2012, Ryan was one of the better pitchers in the league. To say Ryan wasn't coming off a very good year at all is an opinion, not a fact. And there is little evidence to back it up. Much of what is presented here as fact indeed is. Some is simply opinion. Not that opinion is bad, but it isn't fact, as was presented here. So where are we left? For reasons that weren't entirely of their own making, the Giants were unable to land either Lester or Shields, even though they were willing to pay market rates or above. They then went to Plan C and re-signed Peavy, Romo and Vogelsong. That wasn't great, but it certainly wasn't horrible either. And it left the Giants with short commitments which may allow them to sign a good pitcher or two this winter. It's possible that after this winter we won't feel so bad. It's also possible, even probable, that the Giants' payroll will approach $200 million next season. That will likely be up there with or above 28 of the other 29 teams. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3027/win-figure?page=1#ixzz3lOkU80Vg |
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Post by Rog on Sept 10, 2015 23:14:13 GMT -5
The injuries were discouraging, but the one thing that surprised me about the rotation this season is that Matt Cain wasn't able to come back more strongly.
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Post by Rog on Sept 10, 2015 23:19:14 GMT -5
Unfortunately, I'll always remember the downside; Injuries. Every team gets injuries, every team. But most NOT to the extent of this group. Pence, Pence, Pence, Aoki, Aoki, Panik, Cain, Cain, Pagan, and to a lesser extent, but still bad all the same, Crawford. Hard to lose 4 of your starting players and remain in serious contention. Rog -- So if it's hard to remain in serious contention (as the Giants did for about five months) with all the injuries, perhaps it WASN'T the lack of pitching after all. One could certainly state that the pitching wasn't good enough to OVERCOME the injuries, but it seems as if you're saying that the injuries were the bigger problem. The Giants rank #6 in the NL in ERA and #4 in scoring. They play in a pitchers' park, so the numbers are skewed a bit, but the Giants' pitching certainly hasn't been horrible -- especially given the injuries they have faced. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3027/win-figure?page=1#ixzz3lOsKQoC5 |
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 11, 2015 9:44:44 GMT -5
Horrible?
No. Certainly not.
Good enough to win the west or the wild card?
Not even close to good enough.
boly
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Post by Rog on Sept 14, 2015 9:43:39 GMT -5
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Post by Rog on Sept 14, 2015 9:55:55 GMT -5
Horrible? No. Certainly not. Good enough to win the west or the wild card? Not even close to good enough. Rog -- If the Giants had stayed healthy, the pitching quite likely would have been good enough to make the postseason. It was above-average even with all its injuries, and a healthy offense might have been able to carry the day. Not that all these things would have happened had everyone stayed healthy, but based on what the Giants HAVE done, if healthy they would have a bench of Bird, Tomlinson, De Aza, Susac and Blanco. That's a bench of players who could start for a lot of teams. There are plenty of ways to look at things, but injuries were the number one thing that kept this year's Giants out of the postseason. Pretty hard to argue against that, isn't it? And for the pitching staff, the toughest thing is that Matt Cain couldn't come back from injury. The funny thing is that his arm was stronger than it used to be, but he hasn't yet learned how to harness that arm. Despite his arm and recovery troubles, Matt is now throwing within 1 mph of 2008. Compare that with Tim Lincecum, whose velocity dropped off by 6.5 mph during that time. Matt's difficulties surprised me, just as I'm sure they surprised him. The hope for next season is that he will have learned how to harness this new arm, which could allow him to be better than he's been since 2012. Matt's ERA is 6.15 this season. Can anyone believe that? That's nearly two runs higher than it's ever been. And, really, his arm was probably able to throw more freely than at least since 2012. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3027/win-figure?page=1#ixzz3liyDA3WJ |
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Post by Rog on Sept 14, 2015 10:03:27 GMT -5
The Giants will be trying very hard to sign one of the top free agent starters, as well as re-sign Mike Leake. I believe anyone thinking their goal is lower would be wrong. So let's suppose they're successful in that regard.
The rotation would look like:
Bumgarner
"Zimmerman"
Leake
Peavy
Heston
Cain
Blackburn (2.03 ERA in his last 10 starts for Sacramento)
That's both strength and depth. Will it happen? I'd say it's odds-on assuming Leake returns, which I believe itself is odds-on. The Giants won't be the only team going hard after the top pitchers, but after their disappointment with last winter, it makes sense that they would be coming QUITE hard after them. Harder even than last off-season, and that was pretty hard.
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Post by Rog on Sept 14, 2015 10:05:13 GMT -5
I didn't mention it, but Blackburn's overall ERA was 2.85, which itself is very good. The 2.03 in the second half of the season was outstanding in a hitters' league. Like Heston, Blackburn isn't an overpowering pitcher, but one who relies on control and craft.
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 14, 2015 10:08:00 GMT -5
Rog-Rog -- You state this as a fact, but you will need to show us where the Giants made this statement. Clearly the fact that they went hard after Lester and then Shields tell us they weren't very likely to make such a statement. They say actions speak louder than words, but you will need to show us how their actions differed from what they said. Is there anyone else here on the board who can document their saying, effectively, that they didn't need a starter because they already had 6 or 7. That they added Ryan Vogelsong at the last minute also speaks to their not believing what you say they said.
Show us where they said it, or please don't present it as a fact. It may simply be a misunderstanding.
***boly says***
Rog, I've explained it countless times. countless times. Do you not remember Bobby Evans saying, "we don't need another starter. We already have 6?"
I do.
If they were serious about Shields, or Lester or the others, they WOULD have landed one.
That they didn't tells me a LOT!
Like a posted multiple times; 3 WS championships in 5 years, yet NONE of the big starters wanted to come here?
Serioulsy?
they all talk about WANTING to be on a championship team, and suddenly, they WANT to go somewhere else?
Doesn't make any sense.
I contend what we got was lip service, nothing more.
To me, their LACK of action is a fact.
boly
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 14, 2015 10:10:29 GMT -5
Rog--The Giants won't be the only team going hard after the top pitchers, but after their disappointment with last winter, it makes sense that they would be coming QUITE hard after them. Harder even than last off-season, and that was pretty hard.
***boly says***
Darned right they should!
We'll see what they come up with, but until the moment they do... I'll be holding my breath.
Towards that end, I hope the posters were right when they speculated that no one liked dealing with Sabean; that Evans is more "user" friendly.
boly
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Sept 14, 2015 14:41:04 GMT -5
it was more about what they did NOT do than what they ultimately did.
Rog -- What the Giants did not do off the field this past off-season and during the season was no more than what they did not do in 2014, when they won the World Series. Is that what it was more about?
Dood - exactly right. And it was the same story in the offseason before 2011 and 2013. Basically this team is built for postseason but not built to dominate in the long regular season. So when one or two things go south they have zero ability to nut up and make the playoffs anyway. I'd prefer for the philosophy to change so that the FO takes it as a PERSONAL failure when we miss the playoffs...because with our revenue, that is exactly what it is.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Sept 14, 2015 14:49:02 GMT -5
Bumgarner
"Zimmerman"
Leake
Peavy
Heston
Cain
Blackburn (2.03 ERA in his last 10 starts for Sacramento)
That's both strength and depth. Will it happen? I'd say it's odds-on assuming Leake returns, which I believe itself is odds-on. The Giants won't be the only team going hard after the top pitchers, but after their disappointment with last winter, it makes sense that they would be coming QUITE hard after them. Harder even than last off-season, and that was pretty hard.
Dood - Obviously they did not go hard after the FA's of last winter. They were patting themselves on the back for having "strength and depth" last year. But they were counting on guys like Hudson and Lincecum who were long past their glory days and like Peavy and Cain who had question marks, injury wise. Now it's time to move past what Boly calls the "lip service" and actually land one or more of the top bananas.
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 14, 2015 18:17:27 GMT -5
Randy, you said it better than I could have (but I'll add one additional word) They FOOLISHLY counted on Hudson and Lincecuma and Cain and Peavy, and it's likely going to cost them the post season.
But until it's over, I'm still holding out for a miracle.
boly
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Sept 14, 2015 18:52:30 GMT -5
erasing a 7.5 game deficit on September 14 is more miracle than anyone can hope to get
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 15, 2015 9:40:34 GMT -5
Like Harry said in Dumb and Dumber..."So.... there's still a chance!"\
boly
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Post by Rog on Sept 16, 2015 16:22:58 GMT -5
Do you not remember Bobby Evans saying, "we don't need another starter. We already have 6?" I do. Rog -- I don't remember his saying it. Perhaps you can dredge it up. This is what he said on December 14th: “We go into the offseason trying to put together the best that we can at every spot,” Evans said. “The door is still open on what our best options might be for starters, with the understanding that we look at our rotation with Lincecum in the rotation, so that does create some significant barrier to adding another starter. But I don’t think we’re closing the door. If an opportunity presents itself, we want to be proactive.” Here is Alex Pavlovic's headline on 12/19: "Bobby Evans: The door is still open for adding another starting pitcher" On January 7th, it was reported that Bobby told Giants beat writer Henry Schulman that the Giants were no longer looking for a starting pitcher. Maybe he made that statement then, but I can't find any details. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3027/win-figure#ixzz3lwBvw59I |
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Post by Rog on Sept 16, 2015 16:25:33 GMT -5
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