|
|
Post by Rog on Mar 26, 2015 9:25:09 GMT -5
Here is a possible positive from Baseball Essential:
It appears Belt is building off his successful postseason into spring training. Through 14 games in Cactus League play, he is slashing .325/.460/.675 with three home runs, two triples and one double. Belt has an ISO number of .350, which is otherworldly.
Belt’s spring numbers are a very promising sign of what the season could hold, but an ISO of .350 should not be expected. I would expect Belt to fall into the ISO range of .170-.188, especially if he takes a more aggressive approach at the plate.
“I have tons of confidence right now,” Belt said recently. “I’m just looking to take that into the year.”
If Belt can stay healthy all season long and produce statistics from 2013 and the beginning of 2014, then the Giants should have no problem replacing the production lost due to Sandoval’s departure and Pence’s injury. In my opinion, Belt could actually exceed what Sandoval produced during the regular season during his time with the Giants.
Brandon Belt vied with Hunter Pence as the Giants' best hitter from August of 2013 through Belt's first injury last season. Despite his injuries, Brandon has had the best home run ratio among the Giants over the past two seasons. If the 2015 Giants are to replace the power of Pablo Sandoval and Mike Morse, Brandon is the most likely source.
|
|
|
|
Post by Islandboagie on Mar 26, 2015 10:34:11 GMT -5
Belt usually has good spring trainings. I can't remember if it was the year before last, or maybe the year before that, but I recall Belt having a great spring, then in the bay bridge series right before the season he had a bad at-bat, slumped his shoulders and walked back to the dugout as if all his confidence was sucked out of him. A torrid slump followed into the season. I still worry that has the possibility of happening again. Of course, everyone has ups and downs during the season, it just appears Belt's are easy to predict after one at-bat. Belt needs to learn how to shrug off bad at-bats. A lot of people are very optimistic about Belt this season, I'm still crossing my fingers.
|
|
|
|
Post by Rog on Mar 26, 2015 22:16:44 GMT -5
Boagie -- Belt usually has good spring trainings. I can't remember if it was the year before last, or maybe the year before that, but I recall Belt having a great spring, then in the bay bridge series right before the season he had a bad at-bat, slumped his shoulders and walked back to the dugout as if all his confidence was sucked out of him. A torrid slump followed into the season. I still worry that has the possibility of happening again. Of course, everyone has ups and downs during the season, it just appears Belt's are easy to predict after one at-bat. Belt needs to learn how to shrug off bad at-bats. A lot of people are very optimistic about Belt this season, I'm still crossing my fingers. Rog -- It was 2012 when Brandon got off to the slow start, but it wasn't that horrible. By April 28th he had his OPS up to .755. It didn't really strike home with me until just now, but the past three seasons Brandon has been a better hitter than Pablo Sandoval. (Not picking on Pablo, Randy; just stating facts .) Brandon's OPS the past three seasons have been .771, .841 and .755. In two of those seasons he outpaced Pablo, whose figures were .789, .758 and .739. It might turn out to backfire, but if I were the Giants, I would try to lock Brandon up right now for four or five years, preferably the latter. The proper strategy IMO is to lock your good players up early so that if you make a mistake, it's a relatively small mistake, not a big one. I'm just shooting from the hip here, but the Giants could guarantee a life's worth of riches for Brandon by replacing his $3.6 contract this season with something like 5/$45 plus a $5 million buyout with a $15 million option for a sixth season. The Giants would be risking $50 million for five years (half of what they were willing to offer Pablo), and would control Brandon for 6/$60. I like that a lot better than paying Pablo six figures for five seasons, even considering the Giants have Brandon locked up for three more seasons. If Brandon stays healthy, it would be surprising if the Giants' didn't need to pay Brandon $20 million the next three arbitration seasons (including 2015 at $3.6 million). By guaranteeing an extra $30 million, they could control him for up to three years of free agency. I know Randy and other will disagree, but I see less risk with Belt the next five seasons than Pablo (whom Bobby Evans said today were willing to go nine figures for Pablo). Belt can't become a free agent before 2018, so the Giants likely don't see a need to rush things, but being pre-emptive is the way to go unless they're still unsure about Belt. Brandon is a year and a half younger than Pablo and has outplayed him over the past three seasons. I would start out lower, but I'd be willing to commit the dollars I mentioned. Let's put it this way. At roughly the same stages of their careers, the Giants locked up Buster Posey for 10 years by guaranteeing $167 million. Not that Brandon is the player Buster is, but my suggestion would lock Brandon up for four fewer years while guaranteeing him well over $100 million less. It might be prudent to wait -- but not too long. If I could lock up Brandon for six years with a guarantee of "only" $50 million, I'd be all over it. The Giants would be locking up Brandon for one more year than Pablo while guaranteeing him half as much. I think that would be a smart decision. There would be more risk with Brandon because he's not as proven, but there would be less risk because only half as much would be risked and it would be risked to a player a year and a half younger and whose conditioning has been far better. Brandon The Giants could use the benefit of not locking up any of the five free agents they signed for more than two years to go out on a longer limb with Brandon. The past three seasons Brandon has shown more power and more ability to reach base than Pablo. He's been a better fielder and base runner. All while batting just five points lower than Pablo. Incidentally, while Pablo seems headed toward the possibility that he will need to become a designated hitter before the end of his contract, Brandon plays a very good first base and could play left or right fields if the Giants really needed him to. I have to admit, though, that Brandon couldn't play third base. Think about that. Brandon plays a position that requires more hitting than Pablo's position does, but over the past three seasons, Brandon has clearly been the better hitter. If we include the postseason, Pablo cuts the gap and possibly even catches him. But if the Giants can lock Brandon up for one more year than they offered Pablo while guaranteeing Brandon half as much, why SHOULDN'T they do so? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2769/positive-first-baseman-belt#ixzz3VY6oQwjo |
|
|
|
Post by rxmeister on Mar 27, 2015 18:20:11 GMT -5
I agree, Rog, the Giants should lock up Belt. If they wait until his walk year they run the risk of insulting his agent, having him think the Giants don't love him and they're concerned about him getting fat. Who knows, he may run off and sign with Boston, the team that allows you to be as obese as you want, and serves you fried chicken and beer in the clubhouse during games! In fact I'm pretty sure Pablo wasn't aware they stopped doing that before he signed. If he had known, he'd still be here.
|
|
|
|
Post by Rog on Mar 27, 2015 18:41:33 GMT -5
So you're saying that if Brandon went to the Red Sox he might have to loosen up his ...
I must say that until I specifically checked it out, I hadn't realized that the past three regular seasons Brandon had outhit Pablo. Because of the positions they play, that doesn't necessarily mean he's been more valuable than Pablo.
But over the next five seasons, I like the odds on Brandon. Again, I really like Pablo, and I will miss him. But as a baseball decision, the Giants are better off IMO in not signing him and instead taking some of the money and sending it Brandon's direction.
At his best, Pablo was better than Brandon. But Pablo has clearly been headed downhill, and his weight issues don't augur well for his breaking the trend, at least not for the majority of his contract.
There was a time when I might have taken Pablo over any third baseman in the game. Certainly he would have been in the discussion. Now it's more a question of where does he fit in the second quadrant around the hot corner? By the end of his contract, the questions could be a lot worse.
|
|
sfgdood
Long time member 
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
|
Post by sfgdood on Mar 28, 2015 15:12:53 GMT -5
I agree, Rog, the Giants should lock up Belt. If they wait until his walk year they run the risk of insulting his agent, having him think the Giants don't love him and they're concerned about him getting fat. Who knows, he may run off and sign with Boston, the team that allows you to be as obese as you want, and serves you fried chicken and beer in the clubhouse during games! In fact I'm pretty sure Pablo wasn't aware they stopped doing that before he signed. If he had known, he'd still be here.
Dood - this might be more of a worry if Belt had made 2 AS games, been a 2 time gold glove finalist, won a WS MVP trophy, set a postseason hitting record and had a career average anywhere near 294. If he gets bent out of shape with his paltry resume, I say let him walk
|
|
|
|
Post by Rog on Mar 29, 2015 11:16:16 GMT -5
Dood - this might be more of a worry if Belt had made 2 AS games, been a 2 time gold glove finalist, won a WS MVP trophy, set a postseason hitting record and had a career average anywhere near 294. If he gets bent out of shape with his paltry resume, I say let him walk Rog -- I think anyone here would be willing to pay a fair amount MORE than he received if we were offering it to the Pablo of 2008/2009 or even of 2008 through 2011. But the past three years seem relevant, and Pablo has been only a good enough player to be ranked about 10th among major league third baseman. Should they be paying $19 or $20 million to a player who isn't even in the top quartile at his position? Give me the "old" Pablo, Randy, and I'll go considerably higher than what Pablo wound up with. But give me the Pablo of the past three years and declining, and I just can't make a prudent argument to pull the trigger. The good stuff you talked about is almost entirely in the PAST. Pablo isn't the player he was early in his career. Here's a good one I don't believe you intended. You referred to Belt's getting "bent out of shape" as you were alluding Pablo did. And you're right. He was bent out of shape and ... out of shape. The argument for Pablo seems to be that he used to be an excellent player, he got into good enough shape last season to become an above-average fielder, he's been a marvelous postseason player the past two postseasons, even though he couldn't get into the lineup in the previous one. How about something concrete? I mean, really Randy, how do you expect Pablo to perform over the next five seasons? Baseball Prospectus expects OPS of .779, .764, .761, .703 and .699. And that doesn't include the weight risk. Is that what you want to spend $95 million? As much as he's struggled at time, Brandon Belt's career OPS is .791. BP doesn't expect Pablo to hit to Brandon's career average in any of the five seasons. Based on the averages over the five seasons, they expect him to hit about 50 points lower than Brandon's career OPS. And remember, that doesn't include the weight risk. Spring training isn't meaningful, but what do you bet Pablo is trying to make a good first impression with the Red Sox fans? He is hitting .194/.522 this spring. He's a MUCH better player than that, of course, but is he truly worth $95 million? I believe you -- or at least the rest of the board -- will agree with me in five years that he wasn't. I would rather have Melky Cabrera at a season less and about $5 million less per season. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2769/positive-first-baseman-belt#ixzz3Vn5qKdzG |
|
sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
|
Post by sfgdood on Mar 29, 2015 13:08:19 GMT -5
Reading your post one might think Belt is FAR younger than Pablo, instead of nearly the same age. Pablo has DONE it at the big league level, and on the biggest stage as well. We're not talking ancient history. Belt has yet to prove he's worth big money and even though you don't think Pablo is worth it, many teams do, and a few have shown it by offering it to him. Are you saying they are all stupid and we should instead listen to your wisdom?
With both Belt and Pablo you have youth and talent. But with Pablo you have a player that has shown the talent in the big leagues. With Belt there is only potential and a severe lack of desire to actually be better than just average as he has been thus far. To me he is a bigger risk for that reason. He needs to show me more fire before I show him the money. He needs to get PISSED OFF at himself when he underachieves instead of just shrugging his shoulders and saying "oh well." He needs to show me he cares.
|
|
|
|
Post by Rog on Mar 29, 2015 16:01:41 GMT -5
Randy -- Reading your post one might think Belt is FAR younger than Pablo, instead of nearly the same age. Rog -- One might. If one had read previous posts though, he would realize I had said Brandon was only a year and a half younger. Randy -- Pablo has DONE it at the big league level, and on the biggest stage as well. We're not talking ancient history. Rog -- It's true that Pablo's two wonderful full seasons aren't ancient history. They came four and six seasons ago. The fall off has been much great in the case of Tim Lincecum than Pablo's, but Tim put together a four-year stretch from five through eight years ago where he was among the very best starting pitchers in the game. Pablo never reached that level even in consecutive seasons. Randy -- Belt has yet to prove he's worth big money and even though you don't think Pablo is worth it, many teams do, and a few have shown it by offering it to him. Are you saying they are all stupid and we should instead listen to your wisdom? Rog -- What I was saying is that I would offer Brandon for one extra season as much as half as much as the Giants were prepared o offer Pablo for five seasons. I would offer Brandon big money. I wouldn't offer Pablo BIG money. Randy -- With both Belt and Pablo you have youth and talent. But with Pablo you have a player that has shown the talent in the big leagues. With Belt there is only potential and a severe lack of desire to actually be better than just average as he has been thus far. Rog -- Let's look at this piece by piece. Brandon is only a year and a half younger than Pablo, but I think most would tell us his body is physiologically akin to at least twice that much younger. Pablo has indeed showed more talent in the big leagues, but over the past three seasons, he has arguably shown a bit less. I don't think we know about Belt's desire any more than we know about Pablo's. We know that Brandon has done a much better job managing his weight, but I don't think that in itself indicates he has more desire than Pablo. Randy -- To me he is a bigger risk for that reason. He needs to show me more fire before I show him the money. He needs to get PISSED OFF at himself when he underachieves instead of just shrugging his shoulders and saying "oh well." He needs to show me he cares. Rog -- Brandon really needs to show HIMSELF that he cares, and we don't know all that much about whether he does or not. I'm not sure whether Brandon is a bigger risk or not (although I lean toward the former), but I was suggesting the Giants offer him $11 million less per season than the Giants were prepared to offer Pablo. The difference is less than that, since Brandon is already under the Giants' control (at perhaps $15-20 million) for three of the six seasons, while Pablo was obviously a free agent controlling his own destiny over the next five seasons. Bottom line: I think most would agree that Belt at 6/$50 is a better risk than Pablo. Pablo has been declining, and for a 27-year-old, he has a far above-average level of risk IMO. The Giants can (hopefully) sign Brandon and leave a pretty decent amount of payroll for the future. If they had signed Pablo, they wouldn't have been able to do so. At the beginning of free agency, we said we needed to see the entire package the Giants were able to sign before judging them. Similarly, we need to look to the future as well as the present when comparing signing Belt to signing Pablo. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2769/positive-first-baseman-belt#ixzz3VoF7HZIG |
|
sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
|
Post by sfgdood on Mar 29, 2015 16:56:31 GMT -5
2014: Belt .243, Pablo .279
Career: Belt .268, Pablo .294
Game over
|
|
|
|
Post by klaiggeb on Mar 29, 2015 20:59:19 GMT -5
Randy-
Career: Belt .268, Pablo .294
Game over
***Boly says***
From what I recall, Pablo was always the better prospect.
From a hitting mechanics standpoint, his swing is MUCH simpler than that of Belt.
I've always pointed out Belt's bat angle in the hitting zone, as opposed to Pablo's flat-through-the-zone.
Pablo's is easier to repeat, Belt's prone to slumps.
I would never compare the two, but honestly, Randy, Pablo's weight, and his disappearing power these last couple of season... with that 95 MILLION DOLLAR PRICE TAG... made me shy away from him.
For the money... for the physical nature of both... right now, and only right now... I'll take Brandon.
boly
|
|
sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
|
Post by sfgdood on Mar 29, 2015 21:34:50 GMT -5
Belt actually had better minor league numbers and much greater hype entering the big leagues. There is risk with both...Belt because he's never lived up to his potential...Pablo because of perceived injury risk. I go with the guy who has DONE IT in the big leagues over the guy who is only hype...not just in this case but every time.
|
|
|
|
Post by Rog on Mar 30, 2015 5:36:29 GMT -5
Randy -- 2014: Belt .243, Pablo .279 Career: Belt .268, Pablo .294 Game over Rog -- Not really. Hitters aren't judged any more by batting average alone. Over the past three seasons, Brandon Belt has had the easily better OPS. When comparing the two for what they are likely to be in the future, we should use the broader measure of OPS and shorten the time frame. We're rightfully worried about Tim Lincecum's upcoming season. Even though his CAREER record is 101-76 with a 3.59 ERA. Tim's career won-loss record is roughly as meaningful as Pablo's career batting average. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2769/positive-first-baseman-belt#ixzz3VrbnIC00 |
|
|
|
Post by Rog on Mar 30, 2015 5:39:09 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by Rog on Mar 30, 2015 5:47:06 GMT -5
Boly -- I would never compare the two, but honestly, Randy, Pablo's weight, and his disappearing power these last couple of season... with that 95 MILLION DOLLAR PRICE TAG... made me shy away from him. For the money... for the physical nature of both... right now, and only right now... I'll take Brandon. Rog -- Perhaps we should ask Randy. Would you rather have Pablo for 5/$95 or Brandon for 6/$50? By the way, I would try to lock up Brandon Crawford too -- especially if he gets off to a slow start -- but not at Brandon Belt dollars. At a good salary though. IMO the best strategy combination is to lock up early the guys you like, and trade the rest before they become expensive. Part of the issues the Giants face this season is that they've let Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain become too expensive. Tim was a tough call in which the Giants gambled and thus far have lost. The Giants were leery of Matt's bone chips, and when they decided the chips hadn't caused problems all those years, suddenly they began to. And even then, they've won three World Championships in five years. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2769/positive-first-baseman-belt?page=1#ixzz3VreWJRP6 |
|
|
|
Post by klaiggeb on Mar 30, 2015 13:21:03 GMT -5
I agree, Rog. I'd lock them both up.
that DP that Crawford started yesterday... BORDERLINE SPECTACULAR, the way he planted, spun, and GUNNED a perfect strike-feed to Joey the P.
boly
|
|
