Where are the Giants better, worse and the same?

[Rog]

How about we look at the Giants this year compared to last, area by area?


Starting pitching -- Better now with Cain back and Peavy here all season.  Lincecum still the wild card.

Bullpen -- Worse now that they're another year older.  Good depth to help with injuries.

Catcher -- Better with Susac backing up and Sanchez fighting for a position.  Plus, if we as Don, catcher COULDN'T get any worse!  Posey has been very inconsistent, but he's long been a streaky hitter.

Infield -- What a tough call this one is.  Worse (Pablo gone) to even (hope for a Belt breakout, and Panik available all season).

Outfield -- Worse, especially with Pence out and Pagan's health always vulnerable.  Better defensively with left field no longer a black hole.

Bench -- Better with Susac.

That's three better, two worse and one that is even at best.  Overall they appear to be about even, and once again it comes down to the rotation.  There is more concern about scoring runs than there was last season.  Defense may be slightly better.  Much as I hate to, I predict slightly fewer wins.  But if the pieces come together, especially in the rotation, they could be improved.

Overall forecast:  Partly cloudy with a chance of rain or rainbow.

[klaiggeb]

Starting pitching-Unknown util we find out where Cain is, but for the moment, for the MOMENT, slightly worse.

Bullpen-Romo and Lopez (again), already hurting; Stickland possibly getting untracked; Vogey and Petit long men-Slightly better

Catcher-I'm very worried about Posey, especially after what I call his "Post Season Plummet." It's early, but with Susac backing up, I give it a push until we see something else.

Infield- Defensivelyi-McGeehe ISN'T the defender Pablo was; Panik with us all season-my score: Slightly worse

Infield-Offensively-Slightly better, especially with Panik here all year long.

Everyone seems to forget Pablo, with all that power and all that potential ONLY hit 16 HRs last year, hit .279 with ONLY 73 RBIS.

McGeehee hit .287, and with ONLY 4 HRs, drove in 76 Runs! I'm sorry, we can talk all we want about Pablo's potential, and wax poetic about what he did in the post season... but the facts are the facts; Casey did more with less.

Outfield-With Pence out, offensively, no question, WORSE. But Defensively, with or without Pence, better. Morse was a butcher out there. He made Pat the Bat look good in LF!

Bench-With Ishi and Susac, better.

My overall forecast? Cloudy, with a chance of showers.

boly

[sfgdood]

The Pablo hate here is showing Boly,,,it effects your objectivity. Too bad

[Rog]

Randy -- The Pablo hate here is showing Boly,,,it effects your objectivity. Too bad

Rog -- It's bad enough that you can't be at all objective about anything I say, Randy. Why are you suddenly picking on Boly too?

Just what was it that Boly said that wasn't objective about Pablo?

Was it when he said that Pablo was a better defender than Casey McGehee?

Was it when he said that Pablo and Casey hit for about the same average last season, that Pablo had far more home runs, but that Casey drove in as many runs?

In he case of his first statement, he didn't add that Pablo's defense might decline this season if his legs begin to show the wear and tear of carrying his weight over his six-plus major league career.

He didn't go on to add that not only did McGehee's 76 RBI's outpace Pablo's, they were within three of Pablo's high since his first full season. He didn't add that the 76 RBI's were six more than Pablo has averaged over the past five seasons. He didn't add that McGehee's 76 RBI's were three more than Pablo has averaged over his six full seasons. He didn't add that the 76 RBI's were within one of Pablo's six-season average even if we add in the 24 RBI's Pablo had in his partial rookie season. And he didn't mention that Casey's 104 RBI's in 2010 were 14 higher than Pablo's career high of 90 the following season.

Now, he didn't completely specify how the Giants were going to be as good offensively on the infield, but he did mention Joe Panik. And anyone could seee that he was expecting more from Brandon Belt this season, as has already been discussed.

So how might you have answered, instead of coming unglued?

First of all, you could have agreed that Pablo is better defensively than McGehee. That would have been really tough, wouldn't it?

Then you could have mentioned that Casey had quite a few more opportunities to drive in runs last season than Pablo did.

And finally, you could have agreed that having Joe Panik on the infield the whole season should improve the infield defense and that Brandon Belt might indeed have a breakout season, but that those might not overcome the loss of Pablo.

In other words, you could have discussed -- not blown simply blown Boly off with no substance.




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[sfgdood]

Starting pitching - at this point with all the question marks, injuries and age, you need to say worse until proven otherwise.

Bullpen - about the same

Catching - the same probably...unless Posey's power doesn't return

Infield - FAR worse. McGehee isn't fit to sniff Pablo's jock and that's a fact. Hate Pablo all you want...he certainly has stoked emotions with his crude and insensitive remarks but GMs know the difference and nobody is lining up to throw money at McGehee. Panik is likely to see his numbers slide in his sophomore season as the league adjusts. I have no faith in Belt to be anything more than the underachiever he has always been. Crawford will be Crawford...no more, no less.

Outfield - worse. The defense will be better, especially when it is at full health but offensively it flat out sucks. Pence is the only power threat.

Bench - about the same. I'm not sold on Ish doing it for a full season. I think he will be released at some point

[Rog]

Given how often Brandon Belt has failed to meet our expectations over his four seasons, why would it be reasonable for us to believe he might have a breakout season in 2015? I think the answer might be that he appeared to be just coming into his own when he had his hand broken last May 9th.

At that point, over 3 1/3 months over two seasons, he had hit .301/.359/.457/.816. It might be noted that his OPS during that time was higher than any three month period in the past 2 1/3 seasons for Pablo Sandoval. It should be noted that despite having 100 fewer starts than Pablo over the past two seasons, Brandon has only one fewer homer than Pablo over that period.

Perhaps noting that Brandon's OPS over the past two seasons being clearly higher than Pablo's might also be important.

Before you accuse me of being unobjective about Brandon and Pablo, Randy, come up with some facts that overcome the ones cited here. See if you can find something that indicates Pablo has been a better hitter than Brandon over that time -- even including Pablo's excellent 2014 postseason.

[Rog]

To help put Pablo Sandoval's wonderful 2014 postseason numbers in perspective, it might be noted that in September, when the Giants were also hanging on every game in an effort to even make the postseason, Pablo's OPS was .550.

Looking at Pablo's great 2014 postseason, it is easy to say, look at how well that guy hits when it's most important. There's some truth to that. Just as there is truth to the horrible .550 OPS he posted when the Giants were scrambling to get there.

The Giants will miss Pablo this season. Over the first month or so of the season, they will likely miss Hunter Pence more.

[sfgdood]

If Brandon gets offered 5 years and 95 mil when he's a FA then I'll say he's up to Pablo's level.

Until then it's all talk

[sfgdood]

Before you accuse me of being unobjective about Brandon and Pablo, Randy, come up with some facts that overcome the ones cited here. See if you can find something that indicates Pablo has been a better hitter than Brandon over that time -- even including Pablo's excellent 2014 postseason.

Dood - Of the two, who are close to the same age, only Pablo has had full seasons that have been consistently excellent. Only Pablo has been an All Star, twice. Only Pablo has been a World Series MVP. Only Pablo has been Gold Glove finalist, twice. When Brandon gets hurt you use that as an excuse. When Pablo has been hurt you count it as a negative.

[Rog]

Randy -- I have no faith in Belt to be anything more than the underachiever he has always been.

Rog -- Over the past three seasons, Brandon hasn't been any more of an underachiever than Pablo has.

In fact, the past three seasons Pablo has hit .281/.335/.425/.760. Brandon has hit .275/.350/.453/.803. Pablo has driven in a run every 7.0 at bats. Despite batting lower in the order, Brandon has driven one home every 7.1 at bats.

It is hard to argue that over the past three seasons Brandon hasn't been a better hitter than Pablo -- including the postseasons, it's likely been pretty close.

So if Brandon has underachieved as you say, which he has, Pablo has likely underachieved at least as much the past three seasons. If you think Brandon has underachieved more than Pablo, you might be correct. That, however, would mean that Brandon has the potential to be a much better hitter than Pablo.

Perception isn't always reality. Even I am surprised at how big an advantage Buster has over the past three seasons.

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[Islandboagie]

In fact, the past three seasons Pablo has hit .281/.335/.425/.760. Brandon has hit .275/.350/.453/.803. Pablo has driven in a run every 7.0 at bats. Despite batting lower in the order, Brandon has driven one home every 7.1 at bats.

Boagie- I don't think being lower in the batting order makes a difference in this comparison. Posey and Pence likely get on base more than whoever is batting at the top of the order, and likely in scoring position more often too.

But alas, I believe this argument to be meaningless now that Pablo is gone. So why even waste your time with it?

[sfgdood]

Pablo has finished 3 different seasons with a BA above 300...Belt has done this zero times, not even in a shortened season. It's true that none of these .300 seasons for Sandoval has come after 2011. But it shows that it's more than just potential...he has, in fact, accomplished the feat multiple times. Belt hasn't.

In the past three "underachieving" years, Sandoval has hit .283, .279 and .278...Belt has in 2 of his 4 ML years hit below .245. His best full year average (.289) is a far cry below Sandoval's (.330).

Once again...Belt needs to show it when it counts.

[sfgdood]

it might be noted that in September, when the Giants were also hanging on every game in an effort to even make the postseason, Pablo's OPS was .550.

Dood - in the NLCS, Posey's OPS was .461...in the World Series .395

[klaiggeb]

Rog, I didn't take Randy's post poorly. I thought he was being tongue-in-cheek; humorous.

boly

[Rog]

Randy -- If Brandon gets offered 5 years and 95 mil when he's a FA then I'll say he's up to Pablo's level.

Until then it's all talk

Rog -- The issue here is the comparative performance of the two, not the contract Brandon has been offered. When Pablo was at the same spot in his career as Brandon, had he been offered 5/%95?

The truth is that Brandon Belt, as strange as it seems, has posted better numbers the past three seasons than Pablo. That doesn't, incidentally, make him as valuable as Pablo. First base is more of a hitting position than third base, so Belt's hitting doesn't stand out as much over his positional peers as Pablo's does.

But the past three seasons, positions aside, Brandon has been a better player than Pablo. Not only have his numbers at the plate been better, he's been a better fielder and a far better base runner.

Pablo is what he is. It doesn't matter how he compares to Belt. But think of Brandon's reputation compared to Pablo's.

Pablo has built his reputation on five different periods:

. He got off to a fine 2008 start to his career when he was called up just as he was turning a 22-year-old and hit .345/.847 over 41 games.

. He was even better (.330/.943) at the plate in his first full season of 2009.

. After a poor 2010 season (.268/.732 with a league-leading 26 double plays grounded into), he rebounded with .315/.909 in 2011. Unfortunately that was his last truly impressive regular season. However he ...

. Had a great 2012 postseason. (Remember those three home runs in the final World Series game?)

. He also had a marvelous 2014 postseason.


Pablo's reputation has been built on two full seasons and a partial year over the first three-plus years of his career. It has also been built with two excellent but small-sample postseasons.

Aside from those impressive accomplishments, he hasn't been much above-average for a third baseman.

You never did come up with a player you thought was more or less equal to Pablo. Rarely do you answer questions when you know you are in trouble. When you deign to do so, you try to make an end run as you did in this thread.

But I came up with a guy -- Melky Cabrera. On the face of it, one would think that Pablo is better -- but remember that Pablo built his reputation four to seven seasons ago and in the postseason where it is more visible and more recent, and thus runs the risk of being considered too highly.

But by those who know, Melky is often rated higher as a left fielder than as a third baseman. Cabrera ranked higher on the MLB Network's positional Top 10 than did Pablo. Bleacher Report recently did a series of articles where Pablo was chosen in the top 40% of starting third base, while Melky was chosen in the top 20% of outfielders.

Melky's career numbers aren't as good as Pablo's, but his numbers the past three seasons have clearly been the better of the two. Unlike Pablo's declining numbers the past three seasons, Melky has put up his top two seasons over the last three seasons.

Melky is two years older than Pablo, almost to the day -- although many would consider Melky's body to be "younger" than Pablo's. Melky is overcoming the steroid stain.

But look at the contracts the two players received: Melky's 3/$42 pale when compared to Pablo's 5/$95. This is a case where the two players' contracts were almost simultaneously signed, so we're not talking about a difference in year. Pablo didn't have a lot of competition at third base, but the true outfielders competing in free agency with Melky weren't prizes either.

Let's be honest here. Wouldn't you have rather the Giants have signed Melky Cabrera for 3/$42 than Pablo at 5/$95. Had the Giants signed Pablo, they would have had to really go on the cheap to fill their other needs. Had they signed Melky, they could have exactly the same players they have -- except that Aoki and Romo would be out.

With Melky and a healthy Hunter Pence around, the Giants would have a decently deep lineup. And the only positional loss could have been Romo in the bullpen, the area in which the Giants have the most strength and depth.

So there I guess you have my choice as the best the Giants could have done in the off-season. But I don't think that after his steroid use when he was a Giant, they seriously considered Melky.

So after all the asking I've done, I finally came up with a better off-season solution than the Giants actually put together. The closest anyone came to doing so was when Boly suggested the Giants move Buster to third base. We don't know the rest of his solution, although we know it would have focused on starting pitching.

How about Boly's ideas are combined with mine, and the Giants moved Buster to third base to replace Pablo, and signed Melky to replace Mike Morse. They would have improved themselves at two positions while hurting only catcher. They would have had more money for signing a starting pitcher and might have been more patient with James Shields, who ultimately signed a reasonable contract. (Shields' near $19 million per season looks a lot better than Pablo's $19 million per season pact.)

This is in theory only, but imagine a lineup with Cabrera in left and Buster at third. Imagine a rotation headed by Bumgarner, Shields and Cain. In theory the Giants could have done something like that.

But signing Pablo for third base instead of moving Buster to third and putting Andrew Susac behind the plate would have left the Giants with very little flexibility. It's conceivable we would have been looking at Pablo, Vogelsong and Aoki rather than the actual Vogelsong, Aoki, McGehee, Peavy and Romo. Or rather than the theoretical Cabrera and Shields.

Coming back to the original point, it seems unlikely, but Brandon Belt has actually outplayed Pablo the past three seasons. The only problem with that is that when Brandon becomes a free agent three years from now, he could command even more money than Pablo. But not if his final three seasons before free agency aren't better than Pablo's were.

I will make this point about Pablo. When after the 2011 season he was three years from free agency as Brandon is now, he would have commanded a FAR higher contract than Brandon would command now. But Pablo's last three seasons have truly "slimmed" his chances of being worth the contract he just signed.

If Pablo didn't have his weight issues, he might be worth his contract. But those issues haven't gone away, and some damage to his legs may have already occurred.

And when we compare Pablo's last three seasons to Brandon's, saying "If Brandon gets offered 5 years and 95 mil when he's a FA then I'll say he's up to Pablo's level" is simply running from the question.

I've got to give you credit though. You've become a master at it. I much preferred you though when you stuck to the issues and examined them more objectively and with a clearer head. Sorry to be so tough on you, but I truly believe you have the ability to return to your formerly more objective ways. I truly do.


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[Rog]

Rog -- it might be noted that in September, when the Giants were also hanging on every game in an effort to even make the postseason, Pablo's OPS was .550.

Dood - in the NLCS, Posey's OPS was .461...in the World Series .395

Rog -- There you go again. This thread was comparing the three-year performances of Pablo and Brandon Belt. Buster Posey wasn't part of the discussion at that time.

But to put things on an even footing, if you were going to compare Buster's feeble postseason to Pablo's, you should probably have also mentioned that Pablo's .550 OPS in September fell considerably short of Buster's 1.043. If we combine the September pennant climax and the World Series, Buster's numbers are clearly better.

RBI's are a team stat, but we can capsulize the two when we see Buster's 25 RBI's over those periods to Pablo's 15. To further put Pablo's "pressure-time" RBI's in perspective, Brandon Crawford also had 25.

Bringing this back on track, even though he had just 28 at bats in September, Brandon belt drove in 11 runs over September and October, more than on par with Pablo's 15. Brandon's 8 postseason RBI's were 3 more than Pablo's 5.

Again, RBI's are the best measure. I used them here to make it simple and save time. Only 15 RBI's for Pablo over essentially two months? Not very good despite the marvelous postseason. Pablo was AWFUL down the stretch, but excellent in the postseason. When we combine them, he was adequate at best.

Belt wasn't great either, but he was better than Pablo. As has been the case over much of the past three seasons.




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[Rog]

Boly -- Rog, I didn't take Randy's post poorly. I thought he was being tongue-in-cheek; humorous.

Rog -- If I missed it, I apologize. Were you being tongue-in-cheek, Randy?



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[Islandboagie]

Rog, Pablo has been the better player over the last 3 seasons. Trust me, if it was relatively close I'd go with Belt due to Pablo's recent comments. But it's not that close. Pablo has been consistent, Belt hasn't. Pablo hasn't been platooned with Posey at his position against tough lefties. I root for Belt, but the fact is, he hasn't yet established himself as a solid middle of the order hitter, Pablo has.

The numbers might tell a different story, but as we all know, numbers can be misleading, this conversation would be a good example. But, if you watch the games and have a good memory of the games, then it's easy to say who the better player was.

I don't know if you watch the games, but I do know that Pablo hit his 3 homeruns in the first game, not the final game. If it was just another game I could understand the mistake, but it was a pretty important game, and one pretty hard to forget. That tells me either you don't watch the games, or have a poor memory of them. If you can't accurately remember a World Series game, i question whether you can create an accurate account of what's happened in games of lesser importance over a 3 year period. Either way, I don't think you can form an accurate opinion in this matter.

[Rog]

Rog -- In fact, the past three seasons Pablo has hit .281/.335/.425/.760. Brandon has hit .275/.350/.453/.803. Pablo has driven in a run every 7.0 at bats. Despite batting lower in the order, Brandon has driven one home every 7.1 at bats.

Boagie- I don't think being lower in the batting order makes a difference in this comparison. Posey and Pence likely get on base more than whoever is batting at the top of the order, and likely in scoring position more often too.

Rog -- It's usually pretty close. Remember, the guys at the top of the order are the get-on-base guys. They get on base too. And when the leadoff types "get on base," it's usually not a home run. When the middle-of-the-order types "get on base," it is more likely to be a home run which doesn't leave any runners on. Likewise, while the middle-of-the-order guys are more likely to reach second base, they also drive in more runners ahead of themselves. The lead off types are less likely to reach second base themselves, but are more likely to leave the bases loaded.

Anyway, the point was merely to show that Brandon had been nearly as good at driving in runs as Pablo had.

Boagie -- But alas, I believe this argument to be meaningless now that Pablo is gone. So why even waste your time with it?

Rog -- I'm sure I shouldn't waste my time arguing with Randy, but the guy is so infuriating. He's plenty smart enough to know better and do better, but instead he lacks objectivity and far too often tries to sidestep the obvious.

One big difference between Randy and me is that I try to analyze, while he tries to rationalize. I deal in facts. Randy deals in evasiveness.

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