Spring Training..

[donk33]

Some questions I have after a few terrible spring games...

What goes with Crawford..today was the first day he played in the field...talk was he had some shoulder problems...is this the same problem he had last year when he was bouncing an awful lot of mthrows to first and they said  he was having some shoulder problems??? Did they check him out over the winter???

They seem to give up on Duvall too quickly as a 3B..especially since Pablo never looked as he was going to last as a 3B...Duvall made some very nice plays at third yesterday and today he was back at 1B

(?)...his numbers have never been great at third, but he looks  as if he has the tools...maybe they need a special tutor  to work with him...he has a power with the wood....

How many catcher's are the Giants going to use...they have been switching 4 or 5 guys thru the early games...Posey had a great game today...2 K's and one GIDP...

The pitching has been terrible and this is the time when the pitchers are supposed to be ahead of the hitters....

I still think Tim should have a good relationship with his dad, but he should let Rags coach him...

why don't the Giants TV more games...I'm paying good money to watch them on MLB.com, but they only show games that are TV'ed by one of the teams...and the Giants don't broadcast many games...

[rxmeister]

Duvall looked terrible at third in an earlier game, so I'm glad to hear he's looking better. Last I looked McGehee was hitting about .470 so I doubt they're thinking too much about Duvall at third this year, but I think he'll play there every day at Fresno. They've looked terrible so far, but it's mostly the players you've never heard that have blown games for them, so I'm not too concerned. Casilla has been bad though, and Romo must be licking his chops. I definitely agree about the lack of TV games, it makes the Giants look second rate.

[sfgdood]

Wow reading WAY too much into Spring games, fellas...we're talkin' about PRACTICE

[rxmeister]

Practice:
1. Makes perfect
2. Roster spots are often determined as a result of these "practices."
3. Is very important. Check out RF on Opening Day and see who isn't there, before deciding spring training doesn't mean a thing.

[Islandboagie]

I don't think anyone is reading too much into the games, just making some early observations.

With the exception of Lincecum and Vogelsong, I think this spring has been very positive.

Crick looks good. Carbonell seems like he might be closer than I realized. Duffy looks like he has nothing left to learn at AAA. Belt looks like he's in mid-season form. Pagan seems like he's healthy, despite the earn neck stiffness. Sanchez looks like he will battle Susac for the backup role, which is actually the best case scenario.

[Rog]

Duvall's K/BB ratio suggests he won't be very good offensively, and defense isn't his strong suit. He did hit for impressive power for Fresno last season (27 homers in 352 at bats), but his 82 K's and 30 BB's show another story. Duvall might make a decent pinch hitter.

He's 26 1/2, so he's an older prospect. 20 K's and only 3 BB's in 73 AB's with the Giants.

[rxmeister]

Lincecum was ripped in his last outing, but he was suffering from a sore neck. His K numbers have actually been very good this spring.

[Rog]

If we throw out Tim's "neck" outing, he's given up some runs but has also been devastating with his secondary pitches. In those first two outings, he struck out seven while walking only one over three innings. He has been throwing more strikes, often getting ahead with fastballs.

Here are the negatives: He has given up a home run (an opposite field shot by Wil Myers), and two of his three innings have come against the Padres (whom he historically owns but who now have a more potent lineup). He horribly bounced two wild pitches in one inning.

I certainly wouldn't call him out of the woods yet. He's experienced similar problems to the past three seasons. But the overall quality of his outings (and remember, it's only two without the "neck" game) and I think we can be encouraged.

Remember, Tim is only a fifth starter now. If he can show more command as he has thus far, he could be very good for that role. Excellent even (for his lesser role). His release point seems more consistent, and his balance better.

[klaiggeb]

I don't put a lot into Spring Numbers either, until the last 10 games or so.

Then I start to look more closely at what's happening.

We have a veteran team; a team that knows and proven it knows, how to win. These aren't rookies out there. They know what ST is for.

So until that last week, I'll reserve judgement.

boly

[Rog]

Boly -- So until that last week, I'll reserve judgement.

Rog -- Even then there's no way to tell. All we have to do is look at last year's team.

For two months they were the best team in baseball. Over the next two and a half months, they were the nearly the worst. The last month and a half of the season they were a very good team, and of course in the postseason they were dynamite.

So last season we could have gotten a completely different opinion of the Giants depending on which week we watched them. At times we could have said, wow! What a great season this is going to be! At others it would have been, the Giants suck, they have no players in the minors, it's been two years since they were good, everyone is injured or having a horrible season, Brian Sabean should be fired, Bruce Bochy had better make sure he works harder to motivate these guys, and Chicken Little not only lives, he's living in the condominium overlooking AT&T Park.

I think that's one of the reason I like metrics. They can help us understand if a team (or particularly individual players) are likely to quickly return to normal or not. Otherwise those hot and cold stretches either last a long time but not long enough, or go on and on and on.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2757/spring-training#ixzz3UO2vEMDB

[klaiggeb]

And I don't disagree with you, Rog. With a rookie team, it WOULD tell me something, but with a veteran team... not so much.

But I can't help but be a little concerned with opening 3-10. That indicates a couple of possibilities to me. POSSIBILITIES...nothing more

1-Still feeling the mental effects from last year.

2-When pitchers SHOULD be ahead... they aren't, which makes me wonder, why not. I've posted ad nauseum my concerns about our starters.

I'm going to reserve judgment for quite a while, until say, June, but so far, the starter results aren't encouraging.

The lack of run scoring doesn't bother me. It's early, and there's been no Pence. And without Pence, Bochy's trying to figure some things out.

boly

[Rog]

You are correct that the Giants haven't been playing a lot of good baseball. Aside from the pitching, hitting and defense though, they've been alright.

[Islandboagie]

If anyone says the start of the Giants spring training isn't the least bit bothersome, they're lying through their teeth.

It's unsettling.

There have been positives, as I commented on in a previous post. But as a team they've given up ALOT of runs, and scored very few.

This isn't changing my outlook on the season, because I do think they'll turn it around, but thus far, I'm not happy with what I've seen overall.

[sfgdood]

On another forum, a Pablo hater posted with many an LOL, that the Panda was hitting .188 in Grapefruit League play. I pointed out to him that Buster is hitting .167 this spring, Aoki .136, Panik .130, Pagan .125 and Crawford an unseemly .105. Now everyone knows am not happy with this roster, but I am telling you that none of these numbers mean squat, and you can be sure I believe it. As others have pointed out, the only time full Spring numbers mean anything is when a player is fighting for a roster spot. Otherwise it's just meaningless practice. The last week of Spring is a little more meaningful but not all that crucial still. I recall Barry Zito got absolutely SHELLED in Spring of 2012, a year in which some people were speculating that the Giants could cut Barry if he didn't perform well. Then after the Giants began the season by getting swept in AZ, Zito calmed the waters with a masterful complete game shutout in Denver against the Rocks.

Keep calm, yall.

[sfgdood]

On a funny similar note, Bochy put a ridiculously positive spin on Matt Cain's second outing yesterday. Bochy said he LIKED what he saw of Cain, who gave up six hits and 4 earned runs in just 1.2 IP. Now as I stated above, I don't put too much emphasis on early spring numbers but to say you liked that stat line may have been overstating just a tad. Bochy the politician

[Rog]

If Randy says to keep calm, I would say keep calm. Randy is right when he says that Pablo Sandoval's hitting .188 while Brandon belt is hitting .435 means nothing. I'm joking a little, but it really doesn't.

Better the Giants get it out of their systems now than in June, July and the first half of August as they did last season. And even then, everything ultimately worked out just fine.

One question I have, and it may be that none of us have seen enough of him to know the answer, but has Nori Aoki become more slappy as the years have gone by and that's why he's not hitting any homers anymore?

And I think I just answered my own question. Nori's ground ball to fly ball ratio has soared from 2.0 his first season to 2.8 in 2013 to 3.6 last season. As Boly will tell us, that's the way a speedy hitter like Aoki SHOULD be hitting. (Gregor Blanco has been at 1.38, 1.58 and 1.04.) But Nori's average hasn't risen (.288, .286 and .285).

Nor has his contact rate increased radically (88.4%, 92.1% and 90.8%). In the meantime, his Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) has improved a bit (.304 to .295 to .314), but his batting average on balls hit fair has actually decreased a bit. The first number can be reflective both of how hard balls are hit and of luck, while the second involves luck slightly less and is a little more indicative of how hard the ball is hit.

Despite his change in hitting approach, his rate of hits on infield ground balls has actually fallen substantially, from 13.5% to 13.7% to 7.5%. His bunt hit percentage has dropped from 36.4% to 32.0% to 26.1%, which may mean third basemen are able to play closer because of his more slappy approach. This is something I haven't noticed until now, and I must admit it gives me less confidence in Nori's present hitting ability.

I had thought his limited power might at least come back closer to its original more than adequate level (37 doubles, 4 triples and 10 homers in 2012), but that now seems unlikely. And I'm worried now that his exceptionally consistent batting average may fall 10 to 20 points or possibly even more.

One thing I can't figure out at all is why Bruce Bochy is going to play him in right field while Hunter Pence is out. Nori may have a slightly better arm than Gregor, but it's far from a canon (and much worse than Juan Perez's, should Juan platoon with Blanco a little). Meanwhile, he need to be learning to play left field at AT&T. Blanco is a much better fielder, and he may have made the greatest play of his life while playing right field in Matt Cain's perfect game.

Maybe someone can explain that move to me. I'm not even coming close to getting it.

[Rog]

Looking a little deeper, I see that right field has been Nori's primary position. Clearly that is the reason, and ti was right in front of me all along. But I do think the Giants would benefit from having Blanco covering the greater ground near triples alley.

Then again, perhaps both players would be more comfortable with the alignment the way Bruce is going. That's probably it.

Man, I've learned a lot both offensively and defensively on this thread this morning!

[rxmeister]

As I mentioned in another thread, Bochy changed his mind and will play Blanco/Perez in RF until Pence returns.

[Islandboagie]

As far as I know it's not decided yet, but it was discussed. Obviously that's the smart thing to do, and I hope it happens. I just wish it was permanent. As much as I like Pence, Blanco and Perez cover more ground, not sure about Aoki yet.

[Rog]

Boagie -- As much as I like Pence, Blanco and Perez cover more ground, not sure about Aoki yet.

Rog -- Pence covers ground pretty well, although he's not as good an outfielder as the other two. The one big advantage he has over Blanco is a very strong arm, which is important in right field.

Aoki covers ground reasonably well and is about an average outfielder IMO.



Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2757/spring-training#ixzz3UZu9sTYp

[Rog]

Each year Fan Graphs does a poll of fans where every player may be evaluated in the field, based not on position but as an overall athlete regardless of position. Naturally shortstops tend to rank highest, with first basemen and left fielders near the bottom. Higher scores are better, and 50 is average.

Aoki's average score has been:

Instincts 54

First step 59

Speed 63

Hands 51

Release 52

Arm Strength 30

Accuracy 56

Overall 52


In contrast, here are Blanco's average scores.

Instincts 72

First step 76

Speed 78

Hands 65

Release 56

Arm Strength 34

Accuracy 48

Overall 61

And Hunter Pence.

Instincts 55

First Step 60

Speed 68

Hands 53

Release 62

Arm Strength 70

Accuracy 66

Overall 60

Perez (smaller sample).

Instincts 49

First Step 67

Speed 67

Hands 58

Release 60

Arm Strength 63

Accuracy 63

Overall 61

Just for the heck of it, Pagan

Instincts 53

First Step 66

Speed 78

Hands 56

Release 50

Arm Strength 42



Accuracy 46

Overall 56


So the fans rate Blanco and Perez tied for #1 (61). Close behind is Pence (60), with Pagan (56) and
Aoki 52 trailing.


For arm strength, it's Pence (70)and Perez (63)on top, and Pagan (42), Blanco (34) and Aoki (30) trailing.

If you wish, you can go through and look at the numbers getting to the ball, fielding it, and throwing it overall.

Remember too, the judges are the fans, so it should represent a nice cross section of fans who have seen the players play a fair amount.

[sfgdood]

Aoki covers ground reasonably well and is about an average outfielder IMO.

Dood - if Aoki's defense is only average or reasonable, I have even a bigger problem with him being acquired in favor of other average corner outfielders who actually possess the power of a corner outfielder. You criticized Bud Black for putting Will Myers in CF but now you want to put Aoki in CF when he's never been a full time CF in the big leagues.

[Rog]

Dood - if Aoki's defense is only average or reasonable, I have even a bigger problem with him being acquired in favor of other average corner outfielders who actually possess the power of a corner outfielder. You criticized Bud Black for putting Will Myers in CF but now you want to put Aoki in CF when he's never been a full time CF in the big leagues.

Rog -- Did I miss something? I thought we were talking about whether Aoki should play right field or left with Pence out. When Pence returns, clearly he'll play left field, the position for which I believe he is best suited.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2757/spring-training#ixzz3UblhRxh6