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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 6, 2015 10:33:35 GMT -5
As odd as this is going to sound, but it's true, that, for most of my life I've had very strong precognition.
Everybody likely has some, but I've been given a triple share.
There was a point in my life when I only knew of "good things" coming.
But in the past couple of years, all of my precognition has been about "bad" things happening.
To much, and too many, way too many to go into detail here, but suffice it to say, this is just one more being added to a long list.
But here's my point. Does anyone remember that less than a week ago I STATED that I saw an injury coming for Pence?
I have no clue as to why I know things... it just happens, and it's not something I can control.
Everybody thinks that knowing the future would be good.
Believe me, when you are continually given "glimpses of what's to come," it's NOT a good thing.
Not at all.
Fortunately, this one didn't involve anyone dying, as one of my recent ones did... but for Giant fans, this is a crusher.
Or, as I said when I read about Pence this morning, the SECOND thing I said was, "Well, the CRAP to submarine the season has already begun."
It's going to be a long, long, painful year, guys, and this is just the start.
Swell.
boly
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 6, 2015 11:50:28 GMT -5
I agree, Boly. Maybe we can get some prospects for Bumgarner and Posey and build for the future. I know what you're all thinking "but we won the World Series last season." I say BS, we obviously got lucky. We should give the trophy back.
And now here we are with Pence out until May, the season is over. Just like last season when Cain and Belt were injured, we just flat out gave up. Same in 2012 when we lost Cabrera for the rest of the season, we laid down and put up the white flag.
The 2015 season hasn't even started yet, and I think we need to collectively give up and look forward to hopefully not being terrible again in 2016.
I'm just going to be a Padres fan this year, and enjoy cheering for a Championship caliber team.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 6, 2015 11:56:26 GMT -5
The Giants are, of course, trying to be as optimistic as ever and I can understand that since Pence should be back by mid or late April. To me it just adds yet another question mark to Pagan, Cain, Lincecum, Belt, Hudson etc. Yes he will be healed relatively quickly but the big question for Hunter is what will we get from him once he is back. Will the bone be knit together sufficiently for him to retain his usual strength and bat speed? I have had broken bones before and I can tell you I was not my normal self athletically for a time after I had been "healed" enough to participate again. If the team falls well back of the Dodgers and Padres early, I don't believe it has the firepower to make a big charge to catch up.
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 6, 2015 14:37:55 GMT -5
Of course we won't catch up, they're Championship teams, the Giants are a laughing stock.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 6, 2015 15:47:48 GMT -5
while they have been far from laughing stocks in odd years, they certainly have been underachievers in years following championships...and it seems the pattern is looking very familiar
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 7, 2015 11:33:51 GMT -5
Boagie, you missed my entire point by eleventeen miles.
1-I see Pence's injury as a harbinger of bad luck; a prediction for what I think is coming this year, much like it did in 2011. Posey got hurt, and it was down hill from there. I see more of the same coming.
2-I see a long, long year because we aren't as good as the other clubs in our division.
3-It's like the old song from the 60's says: "Signs, signs, everywhere a sign. Blocking out the scenery, breaking my mind. Do this, don't do that, can't you read the signs?"
But no, you're right. We should move all of the guys you mentioned, but not for prospects.
Hey! Maybe Larry Burright is still available. Or perhaps Ernie Fazo, or better yet, how about Ron Swoboda!
boly
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Post by Rog on Mar 7, 2015 12:12:49 GMT -5
I'm thinking Rod Kanehl, of whom his manager Casey Stengel said, "He's got an arm like a leg."
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Post by Rog on Mar 7, 2015 12:31:34 GMT -5
I'm hoping Boly gets some POSITIVE precognition soon. If not, let us know if your negative precognition is investable! My latest investment was your book, which arrived yesterday. So see, I DO have something positive to look forward to!
As for the upcoming season, the question becomes whether the Giants can overcome what is likely to be an above-average number of injuries. They're a little older, and they're coming off a very long, very pressure-filled season. To me, the most impressive thing last season was how they overcame their injuries.
Now, can there be a silver lining to Hunter's injury? Hard to imagine a big one, but perhaps a little one or two.
Hunter's injury gives the Giants more flexibility in filling out their roster. I would think it almost guarantees Perez or Maxwell will make it, and personally I wouldn't be against both.
The Giants' normal roster with Ishikawa is a little off balance. Having him back up a left-handed hitter as the fourth outfielder and a left-handed hitter as the starting first baseman (especially given Buster's need to play the position fairly often) makes him so.
Having Gregor move to the starting lineup may well guarantee Travis' spot on the roster. He would probably be the #1 lefty pinch hitter anyway, but without Blanco, he nearly becomes the ONLY one. (Adrianza is a switch hitter whose spot also likely receives a boost. Plus, Duffy has options and no AAA experience.)
Whichever between Perez and Maxwell wins the short-term 4th outfielder spot, he will get more opportunity to play. It is probably a good idea to give Pagan some late-inning rest where possible, which I would think now favors Perez.
So the slight lining here may be that the Giants can give more opportunity to the 4th outfielder.
Another small one could be that this should make for a better-rested Pence late in the season.
These are tiny benefits, and the key would seem to be how limited Hunter will be upon his return and how long such limitations last.
Clearly this isn't good. But it's probably not as bad as having both Pagan and Morse out last season. It could also point toward the Giants' looking a little harder for another backup outfielder, which I think was the one need that wasn't seriously addressed last winter.
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 7, 2015 12:52:27 GMT -5
3-It's like the old song from the 60's says: "Signs, signs, everywhere a sign. Blocking out the scenery, breaking my mind. Do this, don't do that, can't you read the signs?"
Boagie- I don't discredit your precognitive abilities, but it seems to me like alot of the signs you see spell out "doom." And I'm not just talking about this season. Last season and 2012 you didn't see a positive outcome for the Giants either. So, like in years past, I'm still not quite ready to drink the kool-aid that you and Randy are mixing up.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 7, 2015 13:27:48 GMT -5
Hunter's injury gives the Giants more flexibility in filling out their roster. I would think it almost guarantees Perez or Maxwell will make it, and personally I wouldn't be against both.
Dood - Yeah and Mad Bum getting injured last year might have given young unproven guys a shot too...anyone going to try to spin that as being a positive?
Hunter's injury gives the Giants more flexibility in filling out their roster. I would think it almost guarantees Perez or Maxwell will make it, and personally I wouldn't be against both.
Dood - you don't think his spot is already guaranteed? Why would the Giants sign him to a guaranteed ML deal if they weren't planning to give him a spot? They could have, and probably should have, easily brought in better, more proven outfielders. This is yet another instance of what I saw as going cheap this offseason. Brown, Ish and Perez and now this other nobody Maxwell are going to fill in for Pence (and spell Angel when he is hurt or his balky back needs rest)...you really think this is a good thing? Wow!
Another small one could be that this should make for a better-rested Pence late in the season.
Dood - considering what the UNrested Pence did in the postseason, I think Id prefer he not get the rest. Besides, he's already going to spend much of the season trying to get back to normal AFTER he returns...him being rested in the postseason wont matter much if we don't get in, as has been the case the last two odd years. History seems to be repeating.
Clearly this isn't good. But it's probably not as bad as having both Pagan and Morse out last season. It could also point toward the Giants' looking a little harder for another backup outfielder, which I think was the one need that wasn't seriously addressed last winter.
Dood - How many times did Boly and I point this out, only to be ridiculed by you and others?
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 7, 2015 13:34:50 GMT -5
Boagie- I don't discredit your precognitive abilities, but it seems to me like alot of the signs you see spell out "doom." And I'm not just talking about this season. Last season and 2012 you didn't see a positive outcome for the Giants either. So, like in years past, I'm still not quite ready to drink the kool-aid that you and Randy are mixing up.
Dood - your optimism is admirable, but this team is NOT those other teams. The starting pitching was able to cover up a lot of the holes of the 2010 and 2012 teams. It's far from a lock that this year's rotation is good enough to do this. Also, last year's injuries came AFTER the Giants built up a big cushion built largely on the power of Morse and others...power that this team does not possess. Once the injuries came, the record sharply declined and the Giants only barely were able to hold on to the final postseason spot in the NL. It's true they did great in the postseason but largely on the back of one great starting pitcher and a record-breaking offensive output from the now departed Panda.
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Post by Rog on Mar 7, 2015 15:51:00 GMT -5
Rog -- Hunter's injury gives the Giants more flexibility in filling out their roster. I would think it almost guarantees Perez or Maxwell will make it, and personally I wouldn't be against both. Dood - Yeah and Mad Bum getting injured last year might have given young unproven guys a shot too...anyone going to try to spin that as being a positive? Rog -- I don't understand why you're so negative, Randy. I mentioned that the positives were minimal: "Now, can there be a silver lining to Hunter's injury? Hard to imagine a big one, but perhaps a little one or two." Did you choose to ignore that sentence in the name of expanding your negativity? I too could expand on the negatives, but aren't they rather obvious? Isn't it more productive to see that there are at least SOME small positives? If you want to continue to emphasize the negative, that's certainly your prerogative. But I feel sorry that you're in such a negative space that you feel the need to do so. Hey, we've all got plenty of problems. That's life. But we go to the Giants for a release from our daily problems. And over the past five seasons they've provided a very good one. Easily better than any of the other 29 teams in the majors. I personally saw the dawn of a new era of Giants baseball in June of 2006 when the Giants drafted Tim Lincecum. We all could have taken the position that the Giants were drafting horribly anyway, and they had the #10 overall draft pick only because they were such a horrible team, especially with Barry Bonds not far from becoming irrelevant. But didn't it make a lot more sense to look at how the Giants might be beginning to build an exciting team for the future? Hey, continue to find negativity in almost everything Giants that happens. I'll feel sorry for you and hope that you can take a deep breath and enjoy what has thus far been quite a ride. To show just how much you have been sticking a dagger in your own heart, you gave up on the 2012 Giants TWELVE DAYS before Melky Cabrera played his final game as a Giant. You flat-out gave up on a team that hadn't yet suffered its biggest personnel lost of the season and yet still went on to win the World Series. On second thought, please keep on with the negativity. That seems to be working for the Giants. Let us know whey you give up this season. That's apparently when the Giants will be able to get down to serious business. You're holding the Giants back by merely being negative, when you could help them by giving up totally! Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2744/precognition#ixzz3TjZoLC7PRead more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2744/precognition#ixzz3TjZNIHr3
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Post by Rog on Mar 7, 2015 15:52:45 GMT -5
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Post by Rog on Mar 7, 2015 15:57:15 GMT -5
Dood - considering what the UNrested Pence did in the postseason, I think Id prefer he not get the rest. Rog -- What would you prefer given that in the 2012 and 2014 postseasons combined, Hunter has a .679 OPS -- 140 points lower than his career average? Before we make a judgment, we should look at as much information as we can, hone that info down into its elements, analyze it, and then form our judgment. By doing so, we often reach a different conclusion than we had originally -- if we're honest and objective. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2744/precognition?page=1#ixzz3Tjf6skGj
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 7, 2015 16:03:48 GMT -5
Clearly this isn't good. But it's probably not as bad as having both Pagan and Morse out last season. It could also point toward the Giants' looking a little harder for another backup outfielder, which I think was the one need that wasn't seriously addressed last winter.
Dood - How many times did Boly and I point this out, only to be ridiculed by you and others?
Boagie- I recall you being quite enamored with Tyler Colvin.
I wasn't happy with the depth in the outfield or infield.
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Post by Rog on Mar 7, 2015 16:27:24 GMT -5
Rog -- Clearly this isn't good. But it's probably not as bad as having both Pagan and Morse out last season. It could also point toward the Giants' looking a little harder for another backup outfielder, which I think was the one need that wasn't seriously addressed last winter. Dood - How many times did Boly and I point this out, only to be ridiculed by you and others? Rog -- It's surprising there can be so many problems with one brief question. No one here disagreed that the fifth outfielder situation wasn't seriously addressed. You and Boly certainly weren't ridiculed for an observation we all agreed with. You guys were right on the money (no pun) that there were better players available for the Giants to maintain or even improve than the ones they chose. Who wouldn't rather have Pablo Sandoval than Casey McGee? Who wouldn't rather have Jon Lester than Jake Peavy? Who wouldn't rather have Melky Cabrera than Nori Aoki? Who wouldn't rather have James Shields than Ryan Vogelsong? Had the Giants thrown an extra $20 million at each of those players, they likely could have signed them ALL! But you wouldn't have had to spend anywhere near $20 million more to live in a much nicer house, would you? You chose not to do so, since you have to live on something approaching a budget. You could have taken your profits out of your 401(k) last year and made higher house payments, but you chose not to. You could have taken your year-end bonus and remodeled your house, but you chose not to. You had economic decisions to make. Some here have said that Brian Sabean lied to us. Well, he certainly wasn't doing so when he told us the Giants' payroll would increase, but not radically. Here is what Chris Haft of mlb.com wrote back a year earlier, just as the 2013 Winter Meetings were starting: The Giants' player payroll, which reached approximately $137 million in 2013, is bound to rise again. Fortunately for the front office, the ascent shouldn't be overly dramatic. "It's a jump," Giants president Larry Baer conceded. "Our history tends to be, we don't take wild swings up or down. And so it's up. It's gone up every year in recent memory. I can't remember when it went down." That's pretty much the approach the Giants took in 2014 before winning the World Championship, and it clear that is the way they would proceed this past winter. You guys are right, right, right when you say the Giants could have signed better players than they did. But you were ignoring the budget constraints under which they were operating. Despite those constraints, they have the 4th-highest player salaries in MLB in 2015. It didn't take rocket science to look at what the Giants were already committed to paying their players, adding to that the likely amount needed to sign their arbitration players, then subtracting that sum from what a normal raise would increase the salary budget to. Heck, it was so easy I could do it. And the players they signed came out not the way I WANTED it to, but the way the logical calculations indicated they would. I'm with you guys that in a perfect world the Giants would have spent at least $100 million more than they did. But in the real world, I think they did a pretty good job with the budget they had. They left money for next off-season, when the free agent crop of pitchers in particular is expected to be rich (no pun). They didn't commit to a single player beyond two years out, providing them wonderful flexibility both a year from now and two years from now. To make things clear, I'm not disparaging your ideas for what they could have done had they chosen to spend the money. I think those ideas were pretty darn good. But in the real world of promising a salary budget increase but nothing out of the ordinary, I think they did pretty well. They diversified their risk, and they kept it short. They addressed their four most pressing needs. I give them an "F" for what they accomplished compared to what they could have done with unlimited money. But given the payroll budget, I'd have to give them at least a "B" and that probably too low. Let's revisit this in five or six years. I think we'll feel differently with 20/20 hindsight. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2744/precognition?page=1#ixzz3TjfskqCg
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Post by Rog on Mar 7, 2015 16:43:11 GMT -5
By the way, isn't it nice to have Blanco to fill in for Pence until Pagan's next injury? Aoki has been extremely healthy -- but that was before he became a Giant.
Gary Brown is just three injuries away from being on the roster!
Speaking of Brown, he still has potential. He has excellent power for a lead off man. He has marvelous speed. He's a very good outfielder. He could take more advantage of his speed on the bases, but the real question is, will he hit and get on base?
If the answer to that question is yes, expect him to play a significant role for years to come. It really boils down to that one question. It truly is just that simple.
Let's all root for Gary, because he could truly make a difference. He's running out of time though. This season must be his last option year. It's nearly five years since he was drafted #24 overall. 24 has been a great number for the Giants. Coincidentally, it is the number Aaron Rodgers was drafted, and that turned out pretty well. I'm sure there are #24 overall draft picks in baseball who have fared well too.
That said, when I looked it up, working backward from 2010, one has to go back to 2005 to find a #24 overall pick who has even made the majors. And that was Brian Bogesevich, who has batted .236 in 299 games. To get to a GOOD player, one has to go back to 2003 and Chad Billingsley.
Now, here would be stretching the positive a bit too far, Randy. Over the past nine drafts, Brown is the only #24 overall pick to even reach the majors.
It is a fact, but even I'M not willing to say it's a very positive one.
Hey, maybe what the Giants did this winter isn't very positive either. But given the budget, I think they did better than we think they did.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 7, 2015 17:02:09 GMT -5
Hey, maybe what the Giants did this winter isn't very positive either. But given the budget, I think they did better than we think they did.
Dood - that's kind of like what I remember hearing about the Montreal Expos for so many years. They did great for the money they had to spend...but that didn't win them any titles, nor did it allow them to stay in Canada. With our farm system pretty well devoid of significant talent and the Dodgers and Padres both with revenue advantages over us...it seems to me seizing this season's opportunity would have been preferable to saving up for the future, especially since we SUCK at signing FAs
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Post by Rog on Mar 8, 2015 4:53:58 GMT -5
Rog-- Hey, maybe what the Giants did this winter isn't very positive either. But given the budget, I think they did better than we think they did. Dood - that's kind of like what I remember hearing about the Montreal Expos for so many years. They did great for the money they had to spend. Rog -- Before becoming the Washington Nationals in 2004, the Expos spent $34, $35, $38 and $52 million. The Giants this season are spending $170 million. See the difference? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2744/precognition#ixzz3TmnNzp1O
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Post by Rog on Mar 8, 2015 4:59:56 GMT -5
Randy -- it seems to me seizing this season's opportunity would have been preferable to saving up for the future, especially since we SUCK at signing FAs Rog -- If the Giants SUCK at signing free agents as you say, how were they going to seize this year's opportunity? And let's suppose they HAD been able to sign Jon Lester. They would have been paying him in excess of $150 million over the next six seasons, meaning they would have had a hard time paying back the money they pre-spent this season without trading someone like Posey for prospects. When one considers the economics of the situation, he can easily see the flaws in your plan. I commend you on your effort though. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2744/precognition?page=1#ixzz3TmpRKNuI
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 8, 2015 9:51:44 GMT -5
My pre cognition is what it is, Rog, and I have no control over it.
The point, or rather, the main point of this thread was just to point out to whom ever did not remember it, was that I had had one of those moments, and I posted it.
It was not a prediction, it was just... one of those "things" that happen to me.
Rog, if I could control it I would, but let me give you just one example of how awful a thing it is to have.
I had a student whom I'd known since he was 6 when, in the summers, I worked as a counselor in a youth sports program.
The kid was always smiling, and no matter what you asked of him, he gave it his best shot.
Years later, I had him as a student for his freshman and sophomore years in Spanish I and II.
Every year afterwards he was always stopping by just to chat, or show me a new "wallpaper" he had downloaded for my computer.
This continued even after he graduated.
Late in 2004, he'd joined the Army in 2002 like he'd always dreamed of doing (as his grand father had done, and his father had done), he stopped by to tell me he was being shipped over to Iraq, and couldn't wait to go.
As he was walking out the door, I KNEW, just KNEW this was the last I'd ever see him; that he would be coming home from Iraq in a box.
For the next 6 months I prayed and prayed that it would not happen, knowing each time that my prayers were futile; that the Lord had other plans for him.
Candee and I were 2 days away from getting on a plane for a cruise to the Caribbean, when I saw his picture in the paper; he'd been killed in action, as I knew he would be.
He was THE first student from our school ever killed in combat, and to this day, it haunts me.
I couldn't have stopped it, but this kid was special. He was the kind of child EVERY father wishes his son would turn out to be.
Always upbeat, always trying, never quitting.
That is one example of hundreds, Rog, and since that date, maybe one or two of me pre cognitive moments have been happy ones.
The rest... I'd rather not think about.
To have what I have is not a blessing, it's a curse; a curse I wish would go away and never come back.
If I could change it, I would, but in the meantime...
It often leaves tears in my eyes, especially when I think about that kid, whose mother gave me facsimiles of his dog tags, and pictures of him as a soldier and as a student.
The hang by the door in my classroom so not one day goes by when I don't see them, and to ensure I never forget him, and as a message to my students what honor is all about.
boly
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Post by Rog on Mar 8, 2015 12:14:45 GMT -5
If you ever have a precognition about me, please let me know. That way if I could do something to head it off, I would give it strong consideration.
As for the Giants this season, I'm not blessed or haunted with precognition as you are, but I did (and still do) worry about injuries.
The Cain thing we knew about. It's slowed up Matt more than I expected.
The Hudson situation wasn't expected.
You were the one with the vision about Pence. It certainly caught me by surprise.
Dave Righetti yesterday talked about the dings to 10 or so that were leaving the Giants a little short on early Spring Training pitching.
Tim Lincecum is suffering through a bout of strikeoutitis. Oh, wait! Now if he can just overcome runitis, I think he's got it nailed.
I did and do take hope though that the Giants overcame injury last season, not that I truly expect them to be able to do so again. Last season, more so than the two World Championships before it, was mystical.
Looking at the roster, the rotation has depth, but not QUALITY depth. The bullpen has depth, which is good given that it is getting a bit long in the tooth.
I think Susac provides quality depth at catcher, and to have a third catcher in Sanchez is unusual. Still, an injury to Posey would clearly hurt a lot.
The infield depth is decent, but I don't think it is built to withstand injury. Joaquin Arias has even filled in for Pablo, but I wouldn't count on it again. Ehire Adrianza doesn't hit well enough to be the answer. Maybe Matt Duffy after he gets more experience right here in Sacramento.
We differ on how good Gregor Blanco is as a fourth outfielder, and his value does seem to be higher coming off the bench. His OPS off the bench is 101 points higher than as a starter. That said, he was a godsend when Pagan went down last season. And his .679 OPS as a starter isn't horrible.
Especially since he is the type of player you would like to see the Giants build around. (Not that they're going to do any building around Blanco.) Speed and defense. More so, by the way, than Aoki, although Nori is easily the better hitter and far more a natural lead off man.
Unfortunately the Giants have no depth behind Gregor, although the opportunity is there for Perez, Maxwell (you may have heard of his silver slugger), Brown or even Ishikawa.
Brown has been particularly sharp this spring, although like pretty much every other player I've ever seen, I wish he would flat-out bust it out of the box and think the extra base until the defense forces him to turn around. The loss of say a foot or so nearly cost him yesterday on his admirable but less than perfect double.
Incidentally, I still don't understand why we are so tolerant of guys who don't hustle for every inch. Brown's effort in going to second base would be considered commendable by most, and it was certainly better than most. But he didn't hustle out every inch, and he hesitated just the least coming around first when he could have been thinking double until the defense forced him to stop.
I still think Gordon cost the Royals a game tie in the 7th game of the 2014 World Series, even though he himself ran the bases harder than most. But if he had been scrapping for every inch and been thinking extra base the instant he hit the ball, he might well have been able to score. If the third base coach had the guts, he would have sent Gordon if he felt Alex had say a 40% chance of scoring.
Brandon Crawford is a tough relay man to challenge, but he's not infallible. As a Giants fan I'm of course glad Gordon didn't put himself into a position to truly challenge Crawford. But as a baseball purist, I would have loved to see it.
Can you imagine having the 7th game of the World Series riding on a try for an inside-the-park home run? What could have been more exciting and a pure if highly unusual play? The closest thing to that was Babe Ruth making the final out of the World Series being thrown out trying to steal second.
Getting back to speed, among the Giants' outfielders, Hunter Pence certainly has the best hustle. And with his caveman diet, his speed is right up their among the Giants outfielders. How would we rank the speed among Pence, Brown, Perez, Aoki, Blanco and Pagan? They're all pretty darn fast.
That said, none of them is a great base stealer. Pence is at only 68%, Aoki at 70%, Blanco at 74%, Pagan at 78% and Brown and Perez both at 67% in the minors.
Pagan's 78% is actually pretty doggone good, but he has fallen to just 73% the past two seasons, and it appears his best thefts are behind him. With 141 steals in 4+ seasons, Brown has been by far the most prolific, but at 67%, he has actually hurt his team with his attempts. (Might be a little positive in opponent rattling, though.)
I would take Pence as the best base stealer right now. Since going on the caveman diet, he stands at 80% the past two seasons. Pagan could be close behind, but I think his injuries have put his best base stealing seasons behind him.
Brown is the guy with the most potential. He has the speed to steal 40 bases per season with a 75%+ success rate.
Billy Hamilton might be the best base stealer in the game. In 4+ seasons in the minors, he stole 395 bases at an 84% clip. In a year and a month in the majors, he's stolen 69 at a 74% clip. Even better may be Dee Gordon, who has stolen 130 bases at a 77% clip and who stole 64 bases last season at that same percentage.
Going forward though, I think I'd take Hamilton, who is 2 1/2 years younger.
We talk about the need for speed in the lead off spot, but Gordon has only a .314 career OBP, and Hamilton is at a disgusting .297. Here's an unbelievable stat for Gordon: He had only FOUR walks the second half of last season. FOUR! From a guy who just needs to get on base.
He'd better get a lot of hits!
Remember how Omar Moreno of the Pirates was considered to be a top lead off man? He stole as many as 96 bases in a season and stole 70 or more three straight years. But his .306 OBP and his 73% steal rate show he was considerably overrated.
Getting back to Hamilton, as fast as Brown is, Hamilton is clearly faster. But he's got to get on base more -- and not get caught stealing so often. I think he'll succeed in the latter. The former is the question mark to his career.
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 8, 2015 12:41:30 GMT -5
Looking at the roster, the rotation has depth, but not QUALITY depth.
Boagie- What do you consider quality? I'd consider Vogelsong and Petit among the best 6th and 7th starters in baseball. Not to mention Crick and Blackburn will be at the AAA level this season. I think in this case the depth is good, but the surface still has a lot of question marks.
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 8, 2015 13:28:50 GMT -5
Looking at the roster, the rotation has depth, but not QUALITY depth.
Boagie- What do you consider quality? I'd consider Vogelsong and Petit among the best 6th and 7th starters in baseball. Not to mention Crick and Blackburn will be at the AAA level this season. I think in this case the depth is good, but the surface still has a lot of question marks.
****Boly says***
Boagie, it's hard to know if you're being faceateous or not. No way Vogey and Petit are the 6th and 7th best in baseball, so I'm guessing you're being tongue-in-cheek.
I happen to agree with Rog, here: lots of depth, but severly lacking in quality.
Let's assume, as we really should, that by the All Farce break, that Cain is back to normal.
That gives us 2 # 1 type guys; Bumgarner and Cain
And a ton of back of the rotation guys:
Lincecum, Hudson, Vogey, Petit.
And as to Crick and the others... until they PROVE they can throw consistant strikes; consistant good strikes, prospects is all they are.
I love Strickland, for instance. But he has GOT to throw better strikes, and off speed pitches. Until he masters that... prospect.
Which brings us back to what Rog said: Quantity, not quality.
boly
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 8, 2015 13:35:37 GMT -5
Boagie- What do you consider quality? I'd consider Vogelsong and Petit among the best 6th and 7th starters in baseball. Not to mention Crick and Blackburn will be at the AAA level this season. I think in this case the depth is good, but the surface still has a lot of question marks.
Dood - the problem is that the Giants probably need those guys more than most teams because 2-5 they are weak. Sure they could be fine for a mediocre 500 or lower kind of team...but for a team with any kind of postseason aspirations, they likely don't make the grade.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 8, 2015 13:47:20 GMT -5
Randy -- it seems to me seizing this season's opportunity would have been preferable to saving up for the future, especially since we SUCK at signing FAs
Rog -- If the Giants SUCK at signing free agents as you say, how were they going to seize this year's opportunity?
Dood - one way could have been signing Pablo before he became a FA...but Sabes wanted to play games and lowball him. Now Pence is down, Belt wants to bunt more and our lineup is looking very punchless.
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 8, 2015 14:08:35 GMT -5
Boly- Boagie, it's hard to know if you're being faceateous or not. No way Vogey and Petit are the 6th and 7th best in baseball, so I'm guessing you're being tongue-in-cheek.
Boagie- I didn't say they were the 6th and 7th best in baseball. I said they were among the best 6th and 7th starters on any club. Big difference.
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Post by Rog on Mar 9, 2015 6:46:28 GMT -5
Rog -- If the Giants SUCK at signing free agents as you say, how were they going to seize this year's opportunity? Dood - one way could have been signing Pablo before he became a FA... Rog -- I thought their 3/$40 offer was quite low, but apparently it was merely a starting point. The Giants are said to have offered 5/$75 prior to last season. At that point, it was probably a fair offer. A little too high probably, but that's the way free agency is going these nights. One issue with Pablo a year ago is that he had missed 120 games the past three seasons. He lay that fear to rest quite a bit by playing 157 games last season. See? It IS possible to eat and play at the same time. Randy -- but Sabes wanted to play games and lowball him. Rog -- Actually, they were playing seven-card stud. Randy -- Now Pence is down, Belt wants to bunt more and our lineup is looking very punchless. Rog -- It didn't want the rotation to feel all alone. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2744/precognition#ixzz3TrEGnhZz
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Post by Rog on Mar 9, 2015 6:48:27 GMT -5
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