Post by Rog on Mar 2, 2015 10:13:16 GMT -5
The Giants had four players in the MLB Network's top 100 players last season. Now they have three, with the departure of Pablo Sandoval.
I thought it would be fun to look at the four Giants, some other top free agents, and the top two or three guys on the list. And make a comment about relief pitchers.
The departed Sandoval ranked #95 on the list. They gave considerable credit to his postseason play. Based on the postseason, he's a top 10 player. Based on his regular season play, he's not in the top 100. At #95, his 5/$95 contract looks about right (although one could certainly argue the risk factor).
Hunter Pence is the heartbeat of the team, and he ranked #48. Probably a good ranking for him. I don't see him being any higher.
Madison Bumgarner came in at #26. Like Pablo, based on the postseason only, that's way too low (can you say #1?). When we throw in the longer regular season, that's probably about right. Madison is still just 25. He could move higher.
Buster Posey weighed in at #8. As a catcher, he plays a very valuable defensive position. Offensively, his swing is one of the prettiest in the game. He ranked immediately behind Miguel Cabrera, and that's pretty darn good. Buster will turn 28 later this month.
Getting down to the top free agents in addition to Pablo, the top three pitchers ranked in or just missed the top 100.
James Shields didn't quite make it. He's been a very consistent pitcher who throws a ton of innings, but he's not quite elite. 4/$75 is a rather team friendly contract. In fact, the Giants offered him more, but James chose instead to wait for what he believed would be better offers.
Jon Lester ranked #43. Jon isn't one of the very best pitchers in baseball, but he's in the top 10 or 20. The #43 ranking is pretty high, although it's tough to argue given his stellar 2.46 ERA last season. But he was at 3.75 in 2013 and 4.82 in 2012. At 6/$155, he's pretty pricey. That said, the Giants were willing to go at least 6/$150, which I don't think would have been much of a bargain at all.
Max Scherzer was ranked #11. He's been quite good over the past three seasons, posting ERA's of 3.74, 2.90 and 3.15. What really shows how good he is though is his strikeouts (11.1 per nine innings, 10.1 and 10.3) when coupled with walk rates of 2.9, 2.4 and 2.6. His past two WHIP's have been 0.97 and 1.17, with hit rates of 6.4 and 8.0.
Believe it or not, Scherzer's contract was team friendly. The Giants and other teams wouldn't even deal with agent Scott Boras, but Scott and the Nationals were able to find a way to get Max over $200 million while still keeping the Nationals' expenditures fairly low on an annual basis. Max will make $17, $22 and $22 million the next three seasons, which even the Giants could have afforded.
How do both Max and the Nationals fare well? Much of Max's salary is deferred through 2028. He gets paid over the next 14 years, making each year pretty tolerable. On a present value basis, his contact per season is below that of Lester, and he's probably a clearly better than Lester, as is indicated by his finishing 32 spots higher in the top 100. Lester is excellent. Scherzer approaches elite.
Of the three big pitcher contracts this off-season, I like Scherzer's the best, Shields' next best -- and then a bit of a gap back to Lester. I don't know if Lester should have taken the Giants' offer, but as it turned out, Shields certainly should have. And the Giants might have benefited from keeping an open mind about Scherzer. Max will pitch this season for the same money as Jake Peavy and Casey McGehee will make on a combined basis. Wow!
Looking ahead to next year's crop of potential free agent pitchers, they fared very well as a group. Doug Fister would likely be considered the Nationals' #4 starter, and he came in at #49 on the list. Among others, David Price ranked higher on the list.
The top two players on the list were Clayton Kershaw (#1) and Mike Trout (#2). Those two have begun their careers as the Koufax and Mantle of this era.
Kershaw is the first pitcher ever to post the best ERA in the majors in FOUR straight seasons. Even Koufax didn't do that. (Nice coincidence that both pitchers' surnames start with "K".) Kershaw has won three of the past four NL Cy Young Awards and was voted the MVP this past season. Really, his poor postseason pitching is about the only blotch on what is otherwise an historic resume through age 26.
Trout has won an MVP and finished 2nd his other two full seasons. I'm not sure any player has ever been better through age 23. Yet he wasn't considered to be the top player in the game by the MLB Network. Surprisingly, he wasn't even ranked the #1 center fielder in the Top 10 center fielders in another MLB Network ranking. Then again, Andrew McCutcheon is pretty good too.
Felix Hernandez was ranked #3 among the Top 100. Felix entered the majors at just 19, but beginning with his third full season, his ERA's have been 3.45, 2.49, 2.27, 3.47, 3.06, 3.04 and 2.14. That's right up there with Bob Gibson, even though Bob was four years older when he reached the majors.
That trio is still young, but all-time greats may be emerging in today's game. We recently discussed how great Miguel Cabrera has been. Posey too would be considered to be in the group of potential Hall of Famers, and if the 2014 World Series is an indication, Bumgarner might join what is becoming a good-sized group.
Regarding relief pitchers and another ranking (the top 10 relievers), I thought Santiago Casilla continued to show his underrated status. Casilla wasn't considered to be even in the top 20 relievers despite a 2.10 ERA over his 5-year Giants career. And it's not as if he had an off year last season, posting a 1.70 ERA and blowing hardly any of his more than 30 combined holds and saves.
Relief pitchers are so amazing today that it was stated that many teams have three or four top relievers. The Giants themselves have Casilla, Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt (in the top 5 in ground ball percentage) plus Javier Lopez, Jean Machi and Yusmeiro Petit, who seems to be gaining recognition as possibly the best long reliever in the game and has one of the top swing-through percentages in the game, as well as the all-time record of 46 straight batters retired.
Casilla wasn't ranked in the top 20, and based on how amazing many of the other relievers in the game are, perhaps he shouldn't have been, as tough as 5-year consistency and a 1.70 ERA last season should be to ignore.
Getting back to the Giants on the Top 100, they have an elite catcher (Posey), and up and coming potential superstar in Bumgarner, a solid star with great leadership in Pence, and a streaky third baseman who departed despite a very good offer from the Giants.
More than anything, the Giants are built around their two young stars Posey and Bumgarner.
I thought it would be fun to look at the four Giants, some other top free agents, and the top two or three guys on the list. And make a comment about relief pitchers.
The departed Sandoval ranked #95 on the list. They gave considerable credit to his postseason play. Based on the postseason, he's a top 10 player. Based on his regular season play, he's not in the top 100. At #95, his 5/$95 contract looks about right (although one could certainly argue the risk factor).
Hunter Pence is the heartbeat of the team, and he ranked #48. Probably a good ranking for him. I don't see him being any higher.
Madison Bumgarner came in at #26. Like Pablo, based on the postseason only, that's way too low (can you say #1?). When we throw in the longer regular season, that's probably about right. Madison is still just 25. He could move higher.
Buster Posey weighed in at #8. As a catcher, he plays a very valuable defensive position. Offensively, his swing is one of the prettiest in the game. He ranked immediately behind Miguel Cabrera, and that's pretty darn good. Buster will turn 28 later this month.
Getting down to the top free agents in addition to Pablo, the top three pitchers ranked in or just missed the top 100.
James Shields didn't quite make it. He's been a very consistent pitcher who throws a ton of innings, but he's not quite elite. 4/$75 is a rather team friendly contract. In fact, the Giants offered him more, but James chose instead to wait for what he believed would be better offers.
Jon Lester ranked #43. Jon isn't one of the very best pitchers in baseball, but he's in the top 10 or 20. The #43 ranking is pretty high, although it's tough to argue given his stellar 2.46 ERA last season. But he was at 3.75 in 2013 and 4.82 in 2012. At 6/$155, he's pretty pricey. That said, the Giants were willing to go at least 6/$150, which I don't think would have been much of a bargain at all.
Max Scherzer was ranked #11. He's been quite good over the past three seasons, posting ERA's of 3.74, 2.90 and 3.15. What really shows how good he is though is his strikeouts (11.1 per nine innings, 10.1 and 10.3) when coupled with walk rates of 2.9, 2.4 and 2.6. His past two WHIP's have been 0.97 and 1.17, with hit rates of 6.4 and 8.0.
Believe it or not, Scherzer's contract was team friendly. The Giants and other teams wouldn't even deal with agent Scott Boras, but Scott and the Nationals were able to find a way to get Max over $200 million while still keeping the Nationals' expenditures fairly low on an annual basis. Max will make $17, $22 and $22 million the next three seasons, which even the Giants could have afforded.
How do both Max and the Nationals fare well? Much of Max's salary is deferred through 2028. He gets paid over the next 14 years, making each year pretty tolerable. On a present value basis, his contact per season is below that of Lester, and he's probably a clearly better than Lester, as is indicated by his finishing 32 spots higher in the top 100. Lester is excellent. Scherzer approaches elite.
Of the three big pitcher contracts this off-season, I like Scherzer's the best, Shields' next best -- and then a bit of a gap back to Lester. I don't know if Lester should have taken the Giants' offer, but as it turned out, Shields certainly should have. And the Giants might have benefited from keeping an open mind about Scherzer. Max will pitch this season for the same money as Jake Peavy and Casey McGehee will make on a combined basis. Wow!
Looking ahead to next year's crop of potential free agent pitchers, they fared very well as a group. Doug Fister would likely be considered the Nationals' #4 starter, and he came in at #49 on the list. Among others, David Price ranked higher on the list.
The top two players on the list were Clayton Kershaw (#1) and Mike Trout (#2). Those two have begun their careers as the Koufax and Mantle of this era.
Kershaw is the first pitcher ever to post the best ERA in the majors in FOUR straight seasons. Even Koufax didn't do that. (Nice coincidence that both pitchers' surnames start with "K".) Kershaw has won three of the past four NL Cy Young Awards and was voted the MVP this past season. Really, his poor postseason pitching is about the only blotch on what is otherwise an historic resume through age 26.
Trout has won an MVP and finished 2nd his other two full seasons. I'm not sure any player has ever been better through age 23. Yet he wasn't considered to be the top player in the game by the MLB Network. Surprisingly, he wasn't even ranked the #1 center fielder in the Top 10 center fielders in another MLB Network ranking. Then again, Andrew McCutcheon is pretty good too.
Felix Hernandez was ranked #3 among the Top 100. Felix entered the majors at just 19, but beginning with his third full season, his ERA's have been 3.45, 2.49, 2.27, 3.47, 3.06, 3.04 and 2.14. That's right up there with Bob Gibson, even though Bob was four years older when he reached the majors.
That trio is still young, but all-time greats may be emerging in today's game. We recently discussed how great Miguel Cabrera has been. Posey too would be considered to be in the group of potential Hall of Famers, and if the 2014 World Series is an indication, Bumgarner might join what is becoming a good-sized group.
Regarding relief pitchers and another ranking (the top 10 relievers), I thought Santiago Casilla continued to show his underrated status. Casilla wasn't considered to be even in the top 20 relievers despite a 2.10 ERA over his 5-year Giants career. And it's not as if he had an off year last season, posting a 1.70 ERA and blowing hardly any of his more than 30 combined holds and saves.
Relief pitchers are so amazing today that it was stated that many teams have three or four top relievers. The Giants themselves have Casilla, Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt (in the top 5 in ground ball percentage) plus Javier Lopez, Jean Machi and Yusmeiro Petit, who seems to be gaining recognition as possibly the best long reliever in the game and has one of the top swing-through percentages in the game, as well as the all-time record of 46 straight batters retired.
Casilla wasn't ranked in the top 20, and based on how amazing many of the other relievers in the game are, perhaps he shouldn't have been, as tough as 5-year consistency and a 1.70 ERA last season should be to ignore.
Getting back to the Giants on the Top 100, they have an elite catcher (Posey), and up and coming potential superstar in Bumgarner, a solid star with great leadership in Pence, and a streaky third baseman who departed despite a very good offer from the Giants.
More than anything, the Giants are built around their two young stars Posey and Bumgarner.
