Post by Rog on Feb 28, 2015 8:08:49 GMT -5
The ever-intriguing if occasionally sophomoric Bleacher Reports has an article out on which teams are getting the most for their salary dollars. It is calculated in a very simply mathematical manner, then given a subjective twist.
It takes a team's payroll and divides it by the team's expected wins as determined by the betting over/under. The Giants have a $170 million payroll and are expected to win 84.5 games. That gives them a cost of just over $2 million per win.
Although that ranks them only 23rd in dollar efficiency as rated by Bleacher Reports, that's actually a good score for a team with a very high salary.
Which teams are going to rank the highest here? Obviously it is the teams with low payroll who are still projected to be a reasonably good team.
Which teams are going to rank the lowest? The high-paying teams, especially if they're expected to have a poor year.
The three teams with higher payrolls than the Giants -- the Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox -- rank #27, #30 and #24 respectively. The other three teams ranked behind the Giants mostly have payrolls fairly close to the Giants. The Phillies ($143 million) rank #29. The Tigers ($168 million) rank #28. The Rangers ($140 million) rank #26. The Twins ($107 million) come in at #25.
Which team comes in first? The analysis pegs the Cleveland Indians, who project to 83.5 wins with an $86 million payroll. Their payroll is half the Giants', yet they are projected for only 1.0 fewer wins. The top NL team is the Pirates, who lost to the Giants in a one-game playoff in 2014. The Pirates are also projected at one fewer win than the Giants -- at a payroll that is $81 million less than the Giants'.
Based on projected Wins Above Replacement at $5.5 million per WAR, the Giants will be fueled by Buster Posey (+17.9 million), Madison Bumgarner (+16.7 million) and Brandon Crawford (+10.0 million). They will be most hurt by Tim Lincecum (-$16.4 million), Matt Cain (-$13.7 million) and Hunter Pence (-$4.8 million).
Notice that the three laggards are three highest paid Giants. That Posey leads the way as the Giants' 4th-highest paid player is impressive. Buster will make $17.3 million, but is projected as a $35.2 million player. In contrast, Lincecum will make $18.0 million but is projected to be only a $1.6 million player. This analysis says Allen was right, right, right about Tim's being a horrible signing. Believe it or not, he was even worse last season ($17.0 million payroll, -$1.0 million value).
For the amount of money the Giants are spending, they're projected to achieve a decent return. That they're clearly among the haves is illustrated by both the Indians and Pirates, at roughly half the Giants' payroll, being projected with just one fewer win.
Of course, if that one win means making the playoffs or missing them, the $80+ million in extra spending may well be worth it. Clearly if it leads to a fourth World Championship in six seasons, it will be WELL worth it.
It may be very well worth it to the Nationals, who are ranked #6 in spending efficiency by Bleacher Reports. But since their $163 million payroll is projected to win 92.5 games, one could argue those are the best-spent dollars in the game.
Come October, the Giants -- as they did in 2010, 2012 and 2014 -- could turn the money tables around and spin their high payroll into another World Championship. Despite their very high payroll, that would make it tough to argue vehemently against them as efficient spenders.
For now, let's just say that they appear to have spent their money more wisely than the three teams that have outspent them. And while the Nationals have clearly spent their money better than the Giants, a year from now it will be Washington that will need to continue their city's reputation with extremely high spending in order to retain their own free agents.
It takes a team's payroll and divides it by the team's expected wins as determined by the betting over/under. The Giants have a $170 million payroll and are expected to win 84.5 games. That gives them a cost of just over $2 million per win.
Although that ranks them only 23rd in dollar efficiency as rated by Bleacher Reports, that's actually a good score for a team with a very high salary.
Which teams are going to rank the highest here? Obviously it is the teams with low payroll who are still projected to be a reasonably good team.
Which teams are going to rank the lowest? The high-paying teams, especially if they're expected to have a poor year.
The three teams with higher payrolls than the Giants -- the Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox -- rank #27, #30 and #24 respectively. The other three teams ranked behind the Giants mostly have payrolls fairly close to the Giants. The Phillies ($143 million) rank #29. The Tigers ($168 million) rank #28. The Rangers ($140 million) rank #26. The Twins ($107 million) come in at #25.
Which team comes in first? The analysis pegs the Cleveland Indians, who project to 83.5 wins with an $86 million payroll. Their payroll is half the Giants', yet they are projected for only 1.0 fewer wins. The top NL team is the Pirates, who lost to the Giants in a one-game playoff in 2014. The Pirates are also projected at one fewer win than the Giants -- at a payroll that is $81 million less than the Giants'.
Based on projected Wins Above Replacement at $5.5 million per WAR, the Giants will be fueled by Buster Posey (+17.9 million), Madison Bumgarner (+16.7 million) and Brandon Crawford (+10.0 million). They will be most hurt by Tim Lincecum (-$16.4 million), Matt Cain (-$13.7 million) and Hunter Pence (-$4.8 million).
Notice that the three laggards are three highest paid Giants. That Posey leads the way as the Giants' 4th-highest paid player is impressive. Buster will make $17.3 million, but is projected as a $35.2 million player. In contrast, Lincecum will make $18.0 million but is projected to be only a $1.6 million player. This analysis says Allen was right, right, right about Tim's being a horrible signing. Believe it or not, he was even worse last season ($17.0 million payroll, -$1.0 million value).
For the amount of money the Giants are spending, they're projected to achieve a decent return. That they're clearly among the haves is illustrated by both the Indians and Pirates, at roughly half the Giants' payroll, being projected with just one fewer win.
Of course, if that one win means making the playoffs or missing them, the $80+ million in extra spending may well be worth it. Clearly if it leads to a fourth World Championship in six seasons, it will be WELL worth it.
It may be very well worth it to the Nationals, who are ranked #6 in spending efficiency by Bleacher Reports. But since their $163 million payroll is projected to win 92.5 games, one could argue those are the best-spent dollars in the game.
Come October, the Giants -- as they did in 2010, 2012 and 2014 -- could turn the money tables around and spin their high payroll into another World Championship. Despite their very high payroll, that would make it tough to argue vehemently against them as efficient spenders.
For now, let's just say that they appear to have spent their money more wisely than the three teams that have outspent them. And while the Nationals have clearly spent their money better than the Giants, a year from now it will be Washington that will need to continue their city's reputation with extremely high spending in order to retain their own free agents.
